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Task Force for Measuring Sustainable Development (TFSD) Rutger Hoekstra/Jan Pieter Smits Chairmen and editors of the TFSD UNECE, Geneva, May 12th 2012 Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek
Task Force for Measuring Sustainable Development (TFSD)
Rutger Hoekstra/Jan Pieter SmitsChairmen and editors of the TFSD
UNECE, Geneva, May 12th 2012
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1. TFSD Mandate2. Conceptual framework 3. Sustainable development indicators 4. Rio+20
Introduction
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• Follow-up of Working Group for Statistics for Sustainable Development (WGSSD) • Task Force for Measuring Sustainable Development (TFSD)
– Joint task force of UNECE/Eurostat/OECD– Reports to the Conference of European Statisticians
• Time line– Start: September 2009– Global consultations: February 2013 – Final report: June 2013
• Mandate – Continue conceptual work (social and human capital) – Propose a set of Sustainable Development Indicators
• Philosophy – Not forcing one view of SD – Identifying areas of agreement/disagreement – Building an inclusive flexible framework
TFSD Mandate
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• History of measurement • Main areas of agreement/disagreement• An inclusive conceptual framework
Conceptual framework
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• System of National Accounts (SNA)– Development took centuries– Harmonisation took decades– GDP criticised for decades
• Pre Brundtland (<1987)– Economic composite indicators (e.g. SNI, GPI, ISEW)
• Post Brundtland (>1987)– Economic and non-economic composite indicators (e.g. HDI, Ecological footprint) – Indicators sets (e.g. UN, Eurostat)– Satellite accounts (e.g. SEEA)
History
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• Agreement – Definition: "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs.“ (Brundtland report) • But: An enourmous array of methods and measurement systems• Disagreement: 5 main debates
1. Ecological vs. broad societal perspective 2. Integrated vs. future oriented view3. Composite indicators vs. SDI sets 4. Monetisation5. Policy vs. conceptual approach
• Participants in the debate – Academics – Statisticians – Policy makers
• Aim: an inclusive conceptual framework – Brundtland report– Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi – Economic theory/Other social science– “Here and now” vs. “Later” vs. “Elsewhere”
Agreement/Disagreement
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Capital en human wellbeing
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Ecological wellbeing
Consumption
Human Wellbeing
CapitalEconomic
capital
Natural capital
Human capital
Social capital
Debate 1: Ecological of
broad societal
Now vs. later
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Consumption
Human wellbeing
Capital
Income
Here and Now Later
Time
Other
Consumption
Human wellbeing
Capital
Production Investments
Depreciation
Debate 2: Integrated vs.
future oriented approach
Debate 3: Composite or indicator sets
Debate 4: Monetisation
Here vs. elsewhere
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Production
Consumption
Financial transfers
Imports/exports
Human capital
Migration
Knowledge
Here
Space
Elsewhere
Production/ Investments
Human wellbeing
Natural capital
Global capital
ConsumptionHuman wellbeing
Capital Capital
• Large and small set of indicators • Conceptual versus thematic classification • 3 indicator sets
– Large set – Conceptual (“Here and now vs. later vs. elsewhere” ) (60 indicators)– Large set – Thematic (90 indicators)– Small set – Thematic (24 indicators)
• Selection procedure– “Ideal indicators” (Conceptual considerations)– Commonalities between 10 indicator systems– Data availibility
Sustainable Development Indicators
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Large set - Conceptual – “Here and now”
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Dimension Sub-dimension Theme Aggregate indicator Indicators showing distribution (inequality)
Human well-being (‘Here and now’)
HWB1. Subjective well-being Life satisfaction
HWB2. Consumption and income Final consumption expenditure Income inequality, Gender Pay gap
HWB3. Nutrition Obesity prevalence
HWB4. Health Life expectancy at birth Distribution-health
HWB5. Labour Employment rate Female employment rate, Youth employment rate
HWB6. Education Educational attainment Distribution-education
HWB7. Housing Living without housing deprivation
HWB8. Leisure Leisure time
HWB9. Physical safety Death by assault/homicide rate
HWB10. Land and ecosystems Bird index
HWB11. Water Water quality index
HWB12. Air quality Urban exposure to particulate matter
HWB13. TrustGeneralised trust
Bridging social capital
HWB14. Institutions Voter turnout Percentage of women in parliament
Large set - Conceptual – “Later”
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Dimension Sub-dimension Theme Aggregate indicator Indicators showing distribution (inequality)
Capital (‘Later’)
Economic capital
EC1. Physical capital Physical capital stock
EC2. Knowledge capital Knowledge capital stock
EC3. Financial capital Assets minus liabilities
EC-M. Economic capital Economic capital
Natural capital
NC1. Energy resources Energy resources
NC2. Non-energy resources Non-energy resources
NC3. Land and ecosystemsLand assets
Bird index
NC4. Water Water quality index
NC5. Air quality Urban exposure to particulate matter
NC6. ClimateGlobal CO2 concentration
State of the ozone layer
NC-M. Natural capital Natural capital
Human capital
HC1. Labour Employment rate Female employment rate, Youth employment rate
HC2. Education Educational attainment Distribution-education
HC3. Health Life expectancy at birth Distribution-health
HC-M Human capital Human capital
Social capital
SC1. TrustGeneralised trust
Bridging social capital
SC2. Institutions Voter turnout Percentage of women in parliament
SC-M. Social capital Social capital
Large set - Conceptual – “Elsewhere”
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Dimension Sub-dimension Theme Aggregate indicator
Transboundary impacts (‘Elsewhere’)
Consumption and income TI1. Consumption and income
Official Development Assistance (ODA)
Imports
Economic and financial capital
TI2. Physical capital Export of physical capital
TI3. Knowledge capital Export of knowledge capital
TI4. Financial capital Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Natural capital
TI5. Energy resources Import of energy resources
TI6. Non-energy resources Import of non-energy resources
TI7. Land and ecosystems Land footprint (foreign part)
TI8. Water Water footprint (foreign part)
TI9. Climate Carbon footprint (foreign part)
Human capital TI10. Labour Migration of human capital
Social capital TI11. Institutions Contribution to international institutions
From conceptual to thematic classification
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Themes Dimensions
Human well-being(‘Here and now’)
Capital(‘Later’)
Transboundary impacts(‘Elsewhere’)
TH1. Subjective well-being HWB1 TH2. Consumption and income HWB2 TI1TH3. Nutrition HWB3 TH4. Health HWB4 HC3 TH5. Labour HWB5 HC1 TI10TH6. Education HWB6 HC2 TH7. Housing HWB7 TH8. Leisure HWB8 TH9. Physical safety HWB9 TH10. Land and ecosystems HWB10 NC3 TI7TH11. Water HWB11 NC4 TI8TH12. Air quality HWB12 NC5 TH13. Climate NC6 TI9TH14. Energy resources NC1 TI5TH15. Non-energy resources NC2 TI6TH16. Trust HWB13 SC1 TH17. Institutions HWB14 SC2 TI11TH18. Physical capital EC1 TI2TH19. Knowledge capital EC2 TI3TH20. Financial capital FC1 TI4Economic and financial capital - monetary FC-M Natural capital - monetary NC-M Human capital - monetary HC-M Social capital - monetary SC-M
Large set - Thematic classification - examples
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Theme Indicator type Aggregate indicator Indicator type
Indicator showingdistribution (inequality)
TH6. Education CORE-HW/C Educational attainment DIST Distribution-education
INV Expenditures on education
CORE-ADD Competencies
DEPR Early school leavers
INV Lifelong learning
TH14. Energy resources CORE-C Energy resources
DEPR Consumption
INT Energy intensity
OTHER Renewable energy
CORE-TI Import of energy resources
OTHER Energy dependence
Small set – Thematic classification
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Theme Indicator Subjective well-being Life satisfactionConsumption and income Final consumption expenditure
Official Development Assistance (ODA)Imports from developing countriesIncome inequality Gender pay gap
Nutrition Obesity prevalenceHealth Life expectancy at birthLabour Employment rateEducation Educational attainmentHousing Living without housing deprivation Leisure Leisure time Physical safety Death by assault/homicide rateLand and ecosystems Bird indexWater Water abstractionsAir quality Urban exposure to particulate matterClimate GHG-EmissionsEnergy resources ConsumptionNon-energy resources Domestic Material ConsumptionTrust Generalised trustInstitutions Voter turnoutPhysical capital Gross capital formationKnowledge capital R&D expendituresFinancial capital Government debt
Data availaibility and official statistics
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Large set Small set
Conceptual categorisation Thematic categorisation
Thematic categorisation
Here and now Later Elsewhere Total Total Total
Available: 82% 65% 50% 68% 76% 100%
- databases UN/Eurostat 73% 42% 50% 55% 69% 92%
- Other (OECD/WB/ESS/NOAA. NASA) 9% 23% 0% 13% 7% 8%
Place-holders: 18% 35% 50% 32% 24% 0%
Official sources SEEA/SNA 73% 58% 50% 62% 80% 92%
• Paragraph 38: “We recognize the need for broader measures of progress to complement gross domestic product in order to better inform policy decisions, and in this regard we request the United Nations Statistical Commission, in consultation with relevant United Nations system entities and other relevant organizations, to launch a programme of work in this area building on existing initiatives.”
• Sustainable development goals (SDGs)/ Post 2015– Open Working Group for Sustainable Development Goals– High-level Panel of Prominent Persons
Rio+20
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Data availability worldwide
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TFSD small set Alternative indicator worldwide Worldwide Availability
(no of countries)
Source
Life satisfaction 135 World Happiness DatabaseFinal consumption expenditure 210 United NationsOfficial Development Assistance (ODA) paid Official Development Assistance (ODA) received 143 World BankImports from developing countries Not relevant - -Income inequality Share of poorest quintile in national consumption 134 United Nations (MDG)Gender pay gap 68 United NationsObesity prevalence Malnutrition prevalence 160 United NationsLife expectancy at birth 185 United NationsEmployment rate 145 United NationsEducational attainment 184 United NationsLiving without housing deprivation Urban population in slums 91 United Nations (MDG)Leisure time 20 MTUSDeath by assault/homicide rate 186 United NationsBird index Bird species threatened 214 World Bank (WDI)Water abstractions 93 United NationsUrban exposure to particulate matter 173 United Nations
GHG-Emissions CO2-emission 229 World BankConsumption 187 United NationsEnergy dependence
Domestic Material Consumption 200 SERI
Generalised trust CPIA public sector management 82 World Bank (WDI)Voter turnout 194 IDEA Gross capital formation 156 United NationsR&D expenditures 116 United NationsGovernment debt 84 World Bank (WDI)
Outcome of CES discussion
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• Rutger Hoekstra ([email protected]), Twitter: @Rutger_Hoekstra• Jan Pieter Smits ([email protected])
Contact
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