The Demographic Transition Model

Learning Objectives

• Know what the DTM is;• Be able to describe the stages of the DTM and

consider a possible 5th stage;• Understand the DTM in relation to the MEDW

and LEDW;• Evaluate the usefulness of the DTM.

The Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1 – High fluctuating phase

• BR and DR are high – often 30-40 per 1000• Fluctuating due to impacts of wars, droughts,

famine and disease• Overall, population is relatively stable• UK: Pre 1760• Refers to pre-industrial societies• No countries fit this stage now, although it can be

linked with some communities e.g. indigenous rainforest populations

Stage 2 – Early expanding phase

• BR remains high• DR starts to fall• Therefore this is a period of high rates of

natural increase and hence population growth• UK: 1760-1880, although in the UK (and other

MEDCs) the BR and DR were much closer together so there was never the huge population growth experiences in many LEDCs

Stage 2 – Early expanding

• Sierra Leone is an example• BR of 47 per 1000• DR 18 per 1000• But, unlike the MEDW where population

change was a product of economic development, for the LEDW it is often experienced in largely agricultural countries – causing a ‘poverty trap’.

Stage 3 – late expanding

• Population growth begins to slow down• DR continues to fall• BR also beings to fall• Towards the end of stage 3, BR and DR start to

converge• UK: 1880-1940• China, Brazil, Tunisia are at this stage

Stage 3 – late expanding

• Tunisia – part way through this stage• BR of 22 per 1000• DR of 7 per 1000• Still much less industrialised than the UK was

at this stage in the model

Stage 4 – low fluctuating

• Low BR and DR therefore low natural increase and population growth

• DR largely stable• BR slightly more fluctuating due to ‘baby

booms’ – often linked to times of economic prosperity

• Many countries of the MEDW have now reached stage 4 e.g. Canada, USA, Japan

• UK: post 1940

Stage 5 - decline

• The original model had only 4 stages, but there has recently become a need to consider a ‘5th stage’ as countries such as Sweden, Germany and Italy have found themselves with a population below the replacement level – this means there is a natural decrease in population as BRs have fallen below DRs.

• UK: Post 2000?

Which stage?Country Birth Rate Death Rate Stage of DTM Justification

• Bangladesh• Brazil • Canada• China• Denmark• France• Germany

• Greece• Italy• Mali• Niger• Philippines• Switzerland• UK

MEDW vs LEDW

MEDW• Most passed through all

stages• Stage 4 – around 1960s• Some into Stage 5• Took about 200 years• Growth rates c. 1% / yr• Led by economic

growth

LEDW• Many entered stage 2

mid C20th• Many still in Stage 2/3• High population growth• Pop growth between 2

and 4%• More rapid• Driven by governments

and western medical aid

The usefulness of the DTM

• It is universal in concept – it can be applied to all countries

• It provides a starting point for the study of demographic change

• The timescales are flexible• It is easy to understand• It allows comparisons to be made between

countries• Allows some predictions to be made

The usefulness of the DTM• The original model did not include a 5th stage• It is eurocentric – assumes that all countries will

follow the European sequences of change• Does not allow for the role of governments or

the impact of migration• Not all countries (or regions) will pass through all

of the stages or at the same rates• No account of base population e.g. China where

low rates of natural increase -> large population growth

Thailand