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UNS/TEP and UAScience

Wednesday 27th March, 2013 Bryant Bannister Tree Ring Building

University of Arizona

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Welcome!

• Objective of Today’s Meeting – Joaquin Ruiz– Introductions

• College of Science – Joaquin Ruiz– UNS/TEP and UAScience Partnership

• Tech Launch Arizona – Paul Eynott– The Office of Technology Transfer– Leveraging UAScience through Innovative Approaches

• Proof-of-Concept Program – Alexander Cronin• Discussion and Next Steps - All

Joaquin Ruiz

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< INTRODUCTIONS >

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Joaquin Ruiz

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< Tech Launch AZ >

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Paul Eynott

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Commercialization, Networks & Operations

Technology Licensing

University Research Parks

Corporate & Business Relations

Doug HockstadDirector

Bruce WrightAssociate VP

Nancy SmithDirector

Sherry HoskinsonDirector

Tech Launch Arizona

David Allen Executive Director

Paul Eynott

Paul Eynott

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Support, Integrate & Coordinate Internal Activities

Simplify Access to UA Resources – “Contact Points”

Leverage & Expand Existing Relationships

Expand the Engagement around Research Pipeline

Establish Priority Company Targets

“One-Stop-Shop”Paul Eynott

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Leveraging UAScience- Proof-of-Concept Programs -

Paul Eynott

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Program Size Continuum• Small programs ($10K to $50K grant)

– Work conducted in inventor’s lab– Less emphasis on platform IP, more on licensability– Resources limit larger grants– Return captured in university IP policy allocations– Gift, government or internal tech transfer proceeds

• Intermediate programs ($50K to $250K)– Characteristics are a mix of small and large programs– Often involvement from state governments and

foundations

• Large programs ($250K + investment)– Approaching VC like model - ROI maximization driver

Paul Eynott

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< TLA’s First PoC >

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< Solar Power Forecasts >Forecasting Intermittency due to Clouds for MW-Scale Photovoltaic Generating Facilities

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Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

Numerical Weather Prediction StatusDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences

• Operational solar and wind power forecasts produced, daily, for 220 MW of Tucson basin solar resources and the Macho Springs 50 MW wind farm in New Mexico

• Both graphical and text based “outputs” are available on the Atmospheric Sciences web site

• A GUI/Web Page is being designed to display all renewable forecast and weather information– In partnership with The Institute for the Environment

• Hiring process for a Post-Doc underway

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

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Solar Irradiance Graphical Forecast

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

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Solar Irradiance and Power Text Forecast

• Based on 70 MW nameplate fixed tilt PV and 150 MW nameplate single axis tracker PV (around Tucson area)

• Includes temperature effect on PV efficiency based on the numerical model temperature

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

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Pending Work: 2013-2014

• Improve forecasts based on a simple ensemble approach-blend of multiple forecasts

• Develop a “confidence level” to the forecast• Integrate forecasts into TEP’s EMS and the UAScience

GUI• Verify model forecast-currently impossible due to

lack of solar/wind power production data

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

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• PV output fluctuates (80% dropouts in 5 sec)• TEP will have 250 MW of PV by 2013• TEP needs forecasts to ramp up generators• No forecasts are good enough yet

The Problem:

Our Solutions:• Advanced Numerical Weather Model• Irradiance Network and Velocity Model

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

AC P

ower

(kW

) The Problem:

- ACC Regulations require Big Solar - Now Utility Operators need Forecasts

Aug 9 Aug 10time

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Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

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Our Solution #1Numerical WeatherModel Forecast

Good for:2-hr averages40 hours in advance

100 Rooftops +Wind Forecast

Good for:10 minute detail1-2 hours in advance

Our Solution #2

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

Commercialization OpportunityStrategy 1: Utility System Operators want

an operational forecast product. e.g. TEP, APS

Strategy 2: PV vendors can sell more if they smooth output based on forecasts. e.g. SOLON Corp.

Strategy 3: Industry smart-grids need forecasting. e.g. Military, IBM

Market Diver:

Many (green) states have aggressiveRenewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

Growth rate of PV in USA = 71% in 2012 (SEIA.org)PV prices are falling. How can we handle so much PV?

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Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

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This Project Plan

Task 1: Establish irradiance data feeds in real-time Use TEP properties, UA sensors, staff, & algorithm.

Task 2: Deploy our operational forecast product onlineDevelop utilization strategy with TEP

Task 3: Use this grant to establish IP, hybrid strategies,Key partnerships, commercialization plan

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton

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Our Forecasts based onData from 100 rooftops

Our Solutions:Alexander Cronin and Eric Betterton

AC P

ower

(kW

) The Problem:

ACC Regulations require Big Solar. Now Utility Operators need Forecasts.

Aug 9 Aug 10time

Our Solution #1Numerical WeatherModel Forecast

Good for:2-hr averages40 hours in advance

100 Rooftops +Wind Forecast

Good for:10 minute detail1-2 hours in advance

Our Solution #2

24

23

5

70 MW DG

5

12

10 3550

6.4

34 25

Distribution of ~280 MW

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< Commercialization >

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Paul Eynott

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Paul Eynott

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< Next Steps >

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< Discussion >

Paul Eynott

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Renewable Energy Standards & Tariff

– The REST requirement is a % of TEP’s retail load– Increases 0.5 % annually through 2015– Then increases 1.0% annually until target of 15% reached– 30% of each year’s number must be from customer-sited

distributed resources• Split equally between residential & non-residential

– For 2013, the requirement is 4.0%, which is approximately 375,000,000 kWh or the equivalent annual consumption of almost 34,000 homes

Joaquin Ruiz

UAScience: Renewable Energy

Solar

Wind

Hydrogen & Fuel Cells

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Water

Joaquin Ruiz

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