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M E G AT R E N D S
D E M O G R A P H I C C H A N G E
I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E
H E A LT H T H R I V E S
W O M E N O N T H E R I S E
C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y
N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y
D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !
U B I Q U I T O U S I N T E L L I G E N C E
T E C H N O L O G Y C O N V E R G E N C E
G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
K N O W L E D G E - B A S E D E C O N O M Y
B U S I N E S S E C O S Y S T E M S
C H A N G E S I N T H E W O R K W O R L D
N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S
E N E R G Y A N D R E S O U R C E R E V E R S A L
C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S
U R B A N I S AT I O N
N E W P O L I T I C A L W O R L D O R D E R
G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y
Megatrends are long-term processes of t ransformation with a broad scope and a
dramatic impact . They are considered to be powerful factors which shape future
markets. There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends:
TIME HORIZON
Megatrends can be observed over decades. Quant i tat ive, empir ica l ly unambi-
guous indicators are avai lable for the present . They can be projected – with high
probabi l i t ies – at least 15 years into the future.
REACH
Megatrends impact comprehensively on a l l regions, and result in mult id imensi -
onal t ransformations of a l l societa l subsystems, whether in pol i t ics , society, or
economy. Their precise features vary according to the region in quest ion.
INTENSITY OF IMPACT
Megatrends impact powerful ly and extensively on a l l actors, whether i t is go-
vernments, indiv iduals and their consumption patterns, or corporat ions and
their strategies.
The term “Megatrends” was coined by John Naisbi t t , who, 25 years ago, publ is -
hed a book of the same t i t le . “Megatrends” presented 10 far - reaching develop-
ments which painted a picture of our future at the turn of the mi l lennium. The
book became a bestsel ler and made Naisbi t t a t ra i lb lazer for socia l and eco-
nomic t rend research. With hindsight , one has to acknowledge graciously that
his analyses did not lack the necessary v is ion. He coined, e .g . , the expression
“Global isat ion”, recognised every indiv idual ’s increasing responsibi l i ty for his
own l i fe , envis ioned the information and mult i -opt ion society, and real ised how
decentra l , networking structures would dominate the new mil lennium.
T H E T R E N D T O W A R D S
M E G AT R E N D S
Today, megatrends have become a re levant strategic issue in many corporate
headquarters . S iemens, to name a s igni f icant example, has stressed the impor-
tance of megatrends for i ts business on var ious occasions. Driven by i ts CEO,
Klaus Kle infe ld, S iemens has started to re-a l ign i ts business f ie lds focussing on
the megatrends demographic change and urbanisat ion. Only recent ly, Z_punkt
cooperated with Siemens’ Corporate Strategy department in creat ing a corporate
management report on the megatrends crucia l for the company.
Some megatrends, such as demographic change, heal th, or mobi l i ty, have found
a place on many agendas. Exper ience a lso shows, however, that businesses di f -
fer in their evaluat ion of speci f ic megatrends – their re lat ive strategic s igni f i -
cance being determined by a company’s focus on speci f ic markets , products,
and customers. With i ts new global maxim “The Consumer Decides”, Nike is
recognis ing a megatrend which we descr ibe as a new phase of indiv idual izat ion.
General E lectr ic , on the other hand, focuses on s imi lar issues as i ts compet i tor
Siemens, showcased by i ts new “Ecomaginat ion” advert is ing campaign.
How can companies create value f rom megatrends? Valuable insights wi l l only
be gained i f information on a megatrend is t ranslated into a company’s very
own context , and into future innovat ion f ie lds, markets , and products. Not the
t rend as such is of interest , but i ts strategic impl icat ions. I f you want to prepare
yoursel f in t ime for the future markets emerging f rom megatrends, Z_punkt can
of fer a wide range of t r ied-and-tested, business-speci f ic approaches: Whether
i t ’s lectures or one-day inhouse workshops, ident i f icat ion of strategic innovat i -
on f ie lds or new business f ie lds.
T H E T R E N D T O W A R D S
M E G AT R E N D S
M E G AT R E N D S
0 1 : D E M O G R A P H I C
C H A N G E
In the West, ageing and shrinking populations
In the developing countries, a baby boom
Increasing migration streams
Demographic shifts
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
.
.
.
.
0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N
R E A C H E S
A N E W S TA G E
Individualism, a global phenomenon
Changing relationship patterns: Few strong,
many loose relationships
From mass markets to micro markets
Self-sufficiency and DIY-economics
M E G AT R E N D S
0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S
Increasing health awareness and higher
personal responsibility
Health tech – health style
New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically
modified food, novel food)
New converging markets (food, pharma-
ceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 4 : W O M E N
O N T H E R I S E
Women are integrated into the working world
“Female” soft skills become more important
Participation as market actors: Defining
influence on product and service standards
Work-life balance
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 5 : C U LT U R A L
D I V E R S I T Y
Plural ways of life between tradition
and today
Value systems compete globally
Emergence of hybrid culture
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S
O F M O B I L I T Y
Globally, mobility increases
Barriers to mobility increase
Transport infrastructures are
upgraded/extended
New vehicle concepts – new drive technologies
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
Web 2.0: New media find their way into our
everyday lives
Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real
Virtual business worlds
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R ,
L E A R N I N G F R O M
N AT U R E
Biology becomes the leading science
Renaissance of bionics
Swarm intelligence: New forms of social
organisation
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 9 : U B I Q U I T O U S
I N T E L L I G E N C E
IT-revolution continues
Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces,
new surfaces
Neuro sciences, artificial intelligence, and
robotics
Transparent society: Surveillance and control
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 0 : T E C H N O L O G Y
C O N V E R G E N C E
Information and nanotechnology to be key
drivers of convergence
Stimuli in many areas of application (medical
science, energy, materials)
NBIC-convergence
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
.
.
.
.
1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
Shift to Asia and a new role for the West
Global strategies, customised to places and
regions
Emergence of a global middle class
Globalised Flow of Capital
M E G AT R E N D S
1 2 : K N O W L E D G E - B A S E D
E C O N O M Y
Education and learning as a basis
Innovation as a key driver and
competition factor
New global knowledge elite – the creative class
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 3 : B U S I N E S S
E C O S Y S T E M S
Open systems and networks: Limits of
industries, markets, and businesses dissolve
New value-adding chains (customer integra-
tion, coopetition)
Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to
new markets
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 4 : C H A N G E S I N T H E
W O R K W O R L D
Advances in automation (from the sector of
production to the sectors of service and
knowledge)
Highly flexible working practices (anytime,
anywhere)
Flexible, interactive work structures
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 5 : NEW CONSUMPTION
PATTERNS
The Third World participates in economic
wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid)
Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia
Sustainable consumption in the West
(LOHAS, Eco Chic, Moral Commerce)
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 6 : ENERGY AND
RESOURCE REVERSAL
Strategic resource scarcities (fossil
fuels, freshwater, minerals, metals)
Use of alternative sources of energy and
renewable resources
Revolution in energy efficiency
Decentralised energy supply
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
.
.
.
.
1 7 : CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
CO2-discharges and global rise of temperatures
Increase of environmental problems in
emerging and developing countries
Clean technologies
Corporate responsibility increases
M E G AT R E N D S
1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N
Megacities grow strongly
Development of adapted infrastructure
solutions
New forms of residence, living, and
participation
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
China and India join the ranks
of world powers
Crisis of Western democracies
Russia’s renaissance
Africa awakes
1 9 : N E W P O L I T I C A L
W O R L D O R D E R
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S
T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L
S E C U R I T Y
Global risk society
Festering cultural conflicts and failed states
Global terrorism
Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
.
.
.
.
I f you are interested in megatrends, p lease contact
Klaus Burmeister, our Managing Director (burmeister@z-punkt .de) , or
Holger Glockner, our Director Foresight Consult ing (g lockner@z-punkt .de) .
Z_punkt is a consult ing f i rm for strategy and innovat ion. We are experts in
Corporate Foresight , i .e . , in t ranslat ing trend and future research into the day-
to-day work of strategic management. S ince 1997, we have been support ing
businesses and publ ic inst i tut ions in Foresight Research and Consult ing.
Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company
Anna-Schneider-Steig 2 • Rheinauhafen
50678 Köln
0049 - (0)221 - 355 534 - 0
http://www.z-punkt .de
glockner@z-punkt .de
watkins@z-punkt .de
C O N TA C T
A B O U T Z _ P U N K T
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D E M O G R A P H I C C H A N G E
I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E
H E A LT H T H R I V E S
W O M E N O N T H E R I S E
C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y
N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y
D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !
U B I Q U I T O U S I N T E L L I G E N C E
T E C H N O L O G Y C O N V E R G E N C E
G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
K N O W L E D G E - B A S E D E C O N O M Y
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N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S
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U R B A N I S AT I O N
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G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y
M E G AT R E N D S
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