CLIO INFRA

transcript

CLIO INFRA

Jan Luiten van Zanden

Utrecht University/Groningen/Stellenbosch

Economic history and the ‘beyond GDP’ debate

• Our view of the long-term development of the world economy is largely based on GDP estimates (Maddison synthesis)

• National accounts has been very fruitful approach for understanding and interpreting development world economy since 1800

Economic history and the ‘beyond GDP’ debate

• But limitations of GDP are also well known (inequality, sustainability)

• Can economic history offer historical dimension to well-being debate?

• Is picture of development of world economy really different if we move to more inclusive measures of well-being?

Structure presentation

• Introduction: Clio Infra• Method: how to ‘create’ large global datasets

covering the world economy 1500-2010• It is possible to reconstruct long term

development of various dimensions of well-being?

• Does it really matter? Does it produce a different picture of the rise and development of global inequality?

Clio Infra: large scale research infrastructure project

• Aim: to create the research infrastructure for the analysis of global inequality

• Better estimates of the ‘usual’ indicators (such as GDP)

• Alternative indicators: real wages, life expectancy, biological standard of living, ‘agency’ (Sen)

• Datasets about proximate and ultimate causes of growth and stagnation: human capital, institutions, family systems, culture and religion, knowledge production (books?), geography etc.

• How does growth affect sustainability? • For the period 1500-2010, for the whole world

Approach CLIO INFRA

• Set of specialized hubs that produce global datasets

• Central website at International Institute for Social History (IISH)

• Cooperation with Gapminder and Statplanet

• And with Data Archive DANS for datastorage

CLIO INFRA

• Total budget 4.2 M€ • For 2011-2014• Stages: 2011: design central hub, and

requirements of data uploaded from datahubs

• December 2012: first version on-line available: first sets of data from hubs

• 2012/2013: work on datasets and on refinements central hub

• 2014: ‘final’ version of all websites

CLIO INFRA consists of

Thematic datahubs: • National Accounts: the Maddison project

(Groningen)• Biological Standard of Living and Age heaping

(Tuebingen) • Human Capital Formation (Debrecen/Utrecht)• Demography, Gender, Labour Status (IISH)• Prices and Wages (IISH)• Institutions & Agency (UU)• Sustainability (UU)

Example: the Maddison project

• Collaboratory: team of scholars working on same topic, for example estimating GDP on global scale (Maddison network)

• How to continue with this work in the post-Maddison period?

• Two-layered organization: working group of four ‘disciples’ (Bart van Ark, Leandro Prados, Debin Ma, Jan Luiten van Zanden)

• Broader advisory board with all specialists (25) covering regions and periods

• Website: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/index.htm

Example: Maddison project

• Conference in November 2010• How to proceed: we take Maddison dataset as

starting point• What are weak and strong points (assessment: 4

categories)?• New work to be included (for example England

and Holland before 1800)• Working group collects new estimates and

produces working paper (Bolt and Van Zanden 2012; Van Ark and De Jong 2012)

• Session Stellenbosch 2012 to discuss new results – then (maybe) launched on internet

Example: Maddison project

• Core problem of collab: how to collect and integrate into one consistent set of estimates dispersed expertise of dozens (economic) historians

• Standardization; peer review; data availability• Via ‘layered’ teamwork: Maddison project,

labour status project IISH

Measuring the Great Divergence

GDP per capita from about 1300: England, Netherlands, Indonesia

GDP per capita van Nederland/Holland,Indonesië/Java and UK/Engeland, 1270-2000 (dollars van 1990)

100000

1270 1320 1370 1420 1470 1520 1570 1620 1670 1720 1770 1820 1870 1920 1970

Indonesië Nederland Java Holland Engeland/UK

Other dimensions of well-being

• Demography: Life Expectancy

• Biological standard of living

• Sustainability

• Institutions and Gender

• Human Capital

• Inequality

Other hubs: Biological standard of living: heights in world economy (men, birth cohorts, in cm) (Baten/Tuebingen)

East Asia East. Eur./Cntr. Asia Latin America/Car.

Mid. East/N. Afr. North America/Au/Nz South Asia

Southeast Asia Subsaharan Africa Western Eur.

Human Capital Hub: educational attainment

Human Capital Hub: educational attainment (England 1300-1900)

Wages and prices hub: a.o. real wage developments

London

Amsterdam

Leipzig

Beijing

Suzhou/Shanghai

Real wages in Latin America, 1524-1820

Demography hub: a.o. life expectancy

1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Finland UK Cuba China India South Africa

Sustainability hub (with HYDE, PBL): a.o. biodiversity and

emissions

Institutions hub: quality of political institutions (PolityIV)

Institutions hub: quality of political institutions before 1800

Days in session per year of English/British Parliaments, 1295-1800

Institutions hub: quality of political institutions before 1800

Activity Index, three regions of Europe, 12th-18th century

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

North-west Central South

Various dimensions of inequalityGlobal Income Inequality 1820-2000

GDP per capita

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

10 100 1000 10000 100000

1990 2000 1980

1970 1960 1950

1929 1910 1890

1870 1850 1820

The aim: various dimensions of inequalityInstitutional inequality(polityIV)

New Results: is it possible to go beyond GDP as measure of welfare?

• HDI index – can we extend this into pre 1850 period (for large parts of world economy)?

• Can we broaden the concept of ‘well-being’ and include other dimensions as well

• Stiglitz, Sen & Fitoussi (Sarkozy-report)• Measuring well-being by OECD (Better

Life Initiative)

Problems and limitations

• Conceptual issues; what exactly are we measuring?

• No ‘subjective’ indices, no interviews, difficult to use very specific indicators

• But expert opinion can sometimes replace this (polityIV dataset)

• Use of smart proxies

• But: crude estimates, big gaps in sources

From GDP to HDI

• Per capita GDP/GNI (PPP)

• Life expectancy at birth

• Literacy/Average years of education

• Changes in measures, goalpost, and aggregation

• This all can and is measured for large parts of world economy 1500-present

Two additions considered here

• Political rights & civil liberties– Currently not done, but elephant in room– HDR 1991, 1992, 2000– Dasgupta & Weale, 1992

• Gender equity– Women frequently lack freedom– Done for present: Gender Development Index (GDI)

and Gender Inequality Index (GII– Sen, World (Bank) Development Report 2012; Duflo:

smart economics, good outcome in its own right

Gender Equity

• GDI has high data requirements:– life exp. by gender– educational attainment by gender– income by gender

• To make life easier, UNDP replaced it with GII– maternal mortality– adolescent fertility– parliamentary seats by gender– educational attainment by gender– labour force participation by gender

Solution? Carmichael et al.:“Girl power”

(0.262,0.401](0.401,0.54](0.54,0.679](0.679,0.818](0.818,0.957]

(0.208,0.354](0.354,0.499](0.499,0.645](0.645,0.79](0.79,0.936]

GII (rescaled)

(17.2,20.4](20.4,23.6](23.6,26.8](26.8,30](30,33.2]

20 25 30

2005 GII v. SMAM

20 25 30

2000 GDI v. SMAM

Advantage: really long-term

1600 1800 2000

Netherlands

1600 1800 200015

1650 1750 1850 1950

Germany

1600 1800 2000

1850 1900 1950 2000

Bangladesh

1800 1900 2000

Sri Lanka

1700 1800 1900 2000

1850 1900 1950 2000

Pakistan

1750 1850 1950

Mexico

1920 1960 2000

Canada

1800 1900 2000

United States

Political & civil rights

• UNDP tried in 1991-2

• Lots of criticism– Undemocratic countries did not like it– Humana/The economist’s index insufficient, too

subjective, biased

Political & civil rightsName Authors Period covered Measures

Polity IV Marshall & Jaggers, 2005 1800–2004 Open, competitive political

participation

Vanhanen Vanhanen, 2000 1810–1998 Voter turnout, political

competition

Freedom in the World Freedom House, 2011 1972– Political rights, civil rights

Political Terror Scale Gibney et al., 2010 1976– State terror against subjects, focus

on physical integrity

Poe & Tate, 1999 1976–1993 Government repression of human

rights to personal integrity

CIRI Cingranelli & Richards, 2010 1981– Physical integrity, civil rights and

liberties, workers’ rights,

women’s rights.

World Handbook of Political and

Social Indicators

Taylor & Jodice, 1983 1973–1979 Political rights, civil rights

Alvarez et al., 1996 1950-1990

Political regime change Gasiorowski, 1996 Independence(1747)-1992 Democracy/authoritarian

Bollen 1972-1988 Composite

CAM Coppedge et al., 2008 Contestation + inclusiveness

Trends in political freedom: Polity and Vanhanen compared

1850 1900 1950 2000

E. Europe + form. SU

1850 1900 1950 2000

Eastern Asia

1850 1900 1950 2000

Latin America

1850 1900 1950 2000

Northern America

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Oceania

1850 1900 1950 2000

Southern Asia

1850 1900 1950 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

1850 1900 1950 20000.0

W. Europe

Polity IVVanhanen

Goalposts for new variables

• Translate to 0-1 scale

• Polity IV: minimum and maximum exists throughout, e.g. present-day Saudi-Arabia, Australia

• SMAM: 12.5 (India, 1925) and 33.66 (Saint Lucia, 1991)

Component indices, income

1880 1920 1960 2000

Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 20000.

Northern America

year.round

Component indices, health

1880 1920 1960 2000

Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 20000.

Northern America

year.round

Component indices, education

1880 1920 1960 2000

Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 20000.

Northern America

year.round

Component indices, political

1880 1920 1960 2000

1.0 Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

1.0 E. Europe + form. SU

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Northern America

year.round

Polity IVVanhanen

Component indices, gender eq.

1880 1920 1960 2000

Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 20000.

Northern America

year.round

Resulting HDI

HDI over time

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.roundne

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Northern America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

regional hdiw orld mean

Adding variables

• Simple addition to HDI aggregation, so:𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖 = ඥ𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑖 ⋅ 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑖 ⋅ 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖3 𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖 = ඥ𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑖 ⋅ 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑖 ⋅ 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖 ⋅ 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑖 ⋅ 𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑖5

Adding political freedoms

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.roundne

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Northern America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

HDI+ PolityHDI + VanhanenHDI

Adding gender equity

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.roundne

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Northern America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

HDI+GHDI

Adding both

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.roundne

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Northern America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

HDI+P+GHDI

Adding both

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Eastern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Latin America

year.roundne

1880 1920 1960 2000

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Northern America

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Oceania

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Southern Asia

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa

year.round

1880 1920 1960 2000

W. Europe

year.round

HDI+PHDI+P+GHDI

Conclusions

• Gender equity makes surprisingly little difference

• Political freedoms matter greatly in long term quality of life, esp. MENA, E. Asia, E. Europe + (former) SU

• No more steady improvement, but strong divergence followed by convergence

• Caveats: data, goalposts, aggregations rules

Integration 5 indices

• Same weights?• Weights derived from principal components

analysis?• Empirical studies ‘substitution’ between sub-

indices?• Website where each visitor can decide his/her own

weights (OECD Better Life)• Theoretical inspiration: Sen (‘freedom’; agency)

In the footsteps of Angus Maddison

• It is possible to measure long term economic, social and political changes in the world economy 1500-2010 (with, obviously, large gaps and big margins of error)

• Standardization, peer review, data exchange are keys – within collabs

• Clio Infra also tries to address Well Being debate – multidimensional measures of ‘development’

Will this result in paradigm shift like in the 1930s-1950s?

• 1930s-1950s: coming together of new theories (Keynes), statistical techniques (national accounting) and demand for policy advice (understanding 1930s, fostering growth)

• Such a combination is arguably not (yet) present at the moment

CLIO INFRA

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