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8/20/2019 Mainstreet - National Capital Region
1/19
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 673 Pontiac residents, 661 Ottawa Centre residents, 685 Otta
West-Nepean residents, 630 Kanata-Carleton residents and 655 Nepean residents by Smart IVR™ onOctober 4, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones. Pontiac margin of error:
3.74%, Ottawa Centre margin of error: +/- 3.79%, Ottawa West-Nepean margin of error: +/- 3.72%
Kanata-Carleton margin of error: +/- 3.89% and Nepean margin of error: +/- 3.81%, 19 times out 20. Results were weighed by age & gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
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THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
October 8, 2015 (Toronto, ON) - With less than two weeks to go, a new set of fiMainstreet/Postmedia riding polls in the National Capital Region finds three races too close to cThe Liberals are locked in a tight battle with the Conservatives for Nepean and Kanata-Carletand the NDP for Pontiac. Things are less tight in Ottawa West—Nepean and Ottawa Centre, whe Liberals holding a commanding lead in the former and the NDP comfortably ahead in atter.
PONTIAC
In Pontiac, the race between the Liberals and NDP is too close to call,” continued Maggi. “Nncumbent Mathieu Ravignat (28%) is only a single point above Liberal candidate Will Am
27%). With Conservative candidate Benjamin Woodman polling at only 17%, it’s clear that votn Pontiac want change, but haven’t made a clear decision as whether the NDP or Liberepresents the best shift in direction. Add the fact that it was Conservative up until 2011, a
Pontiac is definitely a riding worth watching.”
OTTAWA CENTRE
Paul Dewar looks safe in Ottawa Centre, despite an energetic campaign from the Liberemarked Maggi. “The incumbent MP leads Liberal challenger Catherine McKenna 42% to 3
among decided and leaning voters, while Conservative candidate Damian Konstantinakos briup the rear with 22%. With Dewar looking comfortable, the one wild card in this race is that ohalf of each party’s supporters describe their support as “strong.” If the NDP continues to decl
his seat could be in play. But for now, Dewar’s popularity is holding.”
OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN
With a nearly 20-point lead, Liberal candidate Anita Vandenbeld looks set to take OttaWest-Nepean,” predicted Maggi. Vandenbeld tops Conservative candidate Abdul Abdi 47%29% among decided and leaning voters in the riding formerly held by prominent Conservacabinet minister John Baird. NDP candidate Marlene Rivier stands at 20%. Vandenbeld shouldeeling confident as we approach election day, especially given her commanding lead (54
among voters ages 50 to 64.”
KANATA-CARLETONThings are going down to the wire in Kanata-Carleton, with a mere two points separating Conservatives and Liberals”, stated Maggi. “In this new riding, much of which was formeepresented by Chief Government Whip Gordon O’Connor, Conservative candidate Walter Paops Liberal Karen McCrimmon 45% to 43% among decided and leaning voters. At 8%, N
candidate John Hansen is not a factor. With large numbers of both Liberal and Conservatupports saying they’re “certain” to vote, Kanata-Carleton is an exciting race to watch.”
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyrig
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republis
with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmed
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NEPEAN
“Much like their neighbours in Kanata, voters in Nepean are nearly evenly split between the teading parties,” noted Maggi. “Liberal candidate Chandra Arya (42%) is only a point aheadConservative Andy Wang (41%), well within the margin of error. NDP candidate Sean Devine lat 13%. As in Kanata-Carleton, large numbers of Liberal and Conservative supporters say the“certain to vote,” making Nepean another contest to follow on election night.”
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three leof government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian puaffairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majogovernment in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recenMainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last November’s Toronto mayoral election.
-30-
Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.caFor more information: David Valentin, 613-698-5524, david@mainstreetresearch.ca
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyrig
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republis
with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postme
8/20/2019 Mainstreet - National Capital Region
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Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
BENJAMIN WOODMAN (CPC)MATHIEU RAVIGNAT (NDP)WILL AMOS (LPC)NICOLAS LEPAGE (BQ)
COLIN GRIFFITHS (GPC)SAMPLE
Certain
17%
29%
28%
6%
2%18%
Likely17%30%36%0%
0%18%
Unlike18%22%42%18%
0%0%
Might
17%
20%
30%
33%
0%0%
BENJAMIN WOODMAN (CPC)MATHIEU RAVIGNAT (NDP)WILL AMOS (LPC)NICOLAS LEPAGE (BQ)COLIN GRIFFITHS (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-34
21%
27%
23%
6%
1%
22%
140
35-4910%33%33%9%2%13%172
50-64
17%
30%
39%
6%
2%
16%
213
65+19%26%30%6%4%
30%148
Fem11%32%
30%6%2%19%36
Male
23%
25%
27%
8%
2%
15%
304
PONTIAC
Woodman Ravignat Amos Griffiths UndecidedLepage
All Voters Decided & Leaning
1 7 %
2 9 %
2 8 %
2 %
7 %
1 7 %
1 9 %
3 6 %
3 4 %
3 %
8 %
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Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there achance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
CPC
51%
39%
10%
NDP48%36%
15%
GPC
32%34%
35%
LPC
52%
33%
14%
And, is there anyone you would lean towards?
PONTIAC
Woodman Ravignat Amos Griffiths UndecidedLepage
BQ61%30%
10%
5%
23%
13%
3%3%
53%
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Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
DAMIAN KONSTANTINAKOS (CPC)PAUL DEWAR (NDP)
CATHERINE MCKENNA (LPC)TOM MILROY (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-34
20%
41%
20%8%
10%
117
35-4913%43%
28%3%13%127
50-64
15%
33%
33%5%
14%
178
65+27%32%
27%3%11%239
Fema19%37%
27%3%14%365
Male
17%
39%
27%7%
10%
296
DAMIAN KONSTANTINAKOS (CPC)PAUL DEWAR (NDP)CATHERINE MCKENNA (LPC)TOM MILROY (GPC)SAMPLE
Certain
18%
38%
27%
5%
12%
Likely16%18%34%3%
28%
Unlike49%34%3%0%14%
Might
14%
46%
27%
0%
12%
OTTAWA CENTRE
Konstantinakos Dewar McKenna Milroy Undecided
All Voters Decided & Leaning
1 8 %
3 8 %
2 7 %
5 %
1 2 %
2 2 %
4 2 %
3 0 %
6 %
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Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there achance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
CPC
49%
38%
13%
NDP50%35%
15%
GPC50%28%
22%
LPC
51%
36%
13%
And, is there anyone you would lean towards?
OTTAWA CENTRE
Konstantinakos Dewar McKenna Milroy Undecided
17%
17%
12%
3%
51%
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Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
ABDUL ABDI (CPC)MARLENE RIVIER (NDP)ANITA VANDENBELD (LPC)
MARK BROOKS (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-34
25%
22%
33%
6%
13%
108
35-4918%24%40%
3%15%164
50-64
22%
10%
54%
4%
9%
159
65+44%9%33%
1%13%254
Fem2417%39
1%2037
Male
27%
18%
43%
6%
5%
314
ABDUL ABDI (CPC)MARLENE RIVIER (NDP)ANITA VANDENBELD (LPC)MARK BROOKS (GPC)SAMPLE
Certain
25%
17%
43%
3%
11%
Likely43%23%12%8%15%
Unlike12%0%0%0%88%
Might
6%
16%
11%
16%
52%
OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN
Abdi Rivier Vandenbeld Brooks Undecided
All Voters Decided & Leaning
2 6 %
1 7 %
4 1 %
4 %
1 3 %
2 9 %
2 0 %
4 7 %
4 %
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Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there achance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
CPC
87%
10%
3%
NDP69%30%
1%
GPC65%25%
10%
LPC
62%
32%
6%
And, is there anyone you would lean towards?
OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN
Abdi Rivier Vandenbeld Brooks Undecided
10%
9%
21%
3%
57%
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Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
KANATA-CARLETON
Pamic Hansen McCrimmon West Undecided
WALTER PAMIC (CPC)JOHN HANSEN (NDP)KAREN MCCRIMMON (LPC)ANDREW WEST (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-34
32%3%
50%
2%
13%
108
35-49
37%10%34%4%15%129
50-64
39%7%
35%
2%
16%
179
65+
53%6%27%3%12%214
Fem
407%343%17%40
Male
38%7%
41%
3%
12%
229
WALTER PAMIC (CPC)JOHN HANSEN (NDP)KAREN MCCRIMMON (LPC)ANDREW WEST (GPC)
UNDECIDED
Certain
38%
7%
40%
3%
12%
Likely54%6%6%2%
32%
Unlik16%20%36%0%
27%
Might
42%
6%
0%
0%
52%
All Voters Decided & Leaning
3 9 %
7 %
3 8 %
3 %
1 4 %
4 5 %
8 %
4 3 %
4 %
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Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
CPC
79%
17%
3%
NDP57%33%
10%
GPC36%46%
18%
LPC
61%
29%
10%
And, is there anyone you would lean towards?
KANATA-CARLETON
Pamic Hansen McCrimmon WestUndecided
15%
6%
12%
8%
59%
8/20/2019 Mainstreet - National Capital Region
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Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
ANDY WANG (CPC)SEAN DEVINE (NDP)CHANDRA ARYA (LPC)JEAN-LUC COOKE (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-34
24%
8%
48%
0%
19%
74
35-4931%13%33%2%22%230
50-64
39%
9%
33%
3%
17%
179
65+51%6%
29%2%12%172
Fem3712%322%1835
Male
32%
7%
41%
2%
18%
302
ANDY WANG (CPC)SEAN DEVINE (NDP)CHANDRA ARYA (LPC)JEAN-LUC COOKE (GPC)UNDECIDED
Certain
36%
10%
36%
2%
13%
Likely34%4%36%0%26%
Unlik15%4%28%7%
46%
Might
26%
4%
41%
0%
29%
NEPEAN
Wang Devine Arya Cooke Undecided
All Voters Decided & Leaning
3 5 %
1 0 %
3 6 %
2 %
1 8 %
4 1 %
1 3 %
4 2 %
4 %
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Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there achance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
CPC
71%
22%
6%
NDP67%23%
10%
GPC71%29%
0%
LPC
61%
29%
9%
And, is there anyone you would lean towards?
NEPEAN
Wang Devine Arya Cooke Undecided
15%
14%
13%
9%
49%
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How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote
Might voteUnlikely to vote
Not eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Benjamin Woodman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Mathieu Ravignat of the NDP led by Tom MulcairWill Amos of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Nicolas Lepage of the Bloc Quebecois led by Gilles DuceppeColin Griffiths of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will chang
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Benjamin Woodman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperMathieu Ravignat of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Will Amos of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauNicolas Lepage of the Bloc Quebecois led by Gilles Duceppe
Colin Griffiths of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided
PONTIAC SCRIPT
8/20/2019 Mainstreet - National Capital Region
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How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to voteNot eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Damian Konstantinakos of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Paul Dewar of the NDP led by Tom MulcairCatherine McKenna of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Tom Milroy of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will chang
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporter
Might change your mindDon’t know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Damian Konstantinakos of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperPaul Dewar of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Catherine McKenna of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauTom Milroy of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
OTTAWA CENTRE SCRIPT
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How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to voteMight vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Abdul Abdi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Marlene Rivier of the NDP led by Tom MulcairAnita Vandenbeld of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauMark Brooks of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will chang
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Abdul Abdi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperMarlene Rivier of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Anita Vandenbeld of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Mark Brooks of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided
OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN SCRIPT
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How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to voteMight vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Walter Pamic of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
John Hansen of the NDP led by Tom MulcairKaren McCrimmon of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauAndrew West of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will chang
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Walter Pamic of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperJohn Hansen of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Karen McCrimmon of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Andrew West of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided
KANATA-CARLETON SCRIPT
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How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to voteMight vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Andy Wang of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Sean Devine of the NDP led by Tom MulcairChandra Arya of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauJean-Luc Cooke of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will chang
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Andy Wang of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperSean Devine of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Chandra Arya of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Jean-Luc Cooke of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided
NEPEAN SCRIPT
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Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at allthree levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentatoron Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots ofpublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majorityLiberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoralelection.