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2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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  • HOLIDAY 2016

  • TABLE OF CONTENTSI. Holiday Forecast ....................................

    II. Holiday Survey 1 .....................................

    III. Thanksgiving Forecast .......................

    IV. Holiday Survey 2 ....................................

    V. Thanksgiving Weekend Results ...

    VI. Cyber Monday ..........................................

    VII. Holiday Survey 3 .....................................

    pages 35

    pages 612

    pages 1314

    pages 1520

    pages 2124

    page 25

    pages 2634

  • nrf.com/url

    HISTORICAL HOLIDAY FORECASTHoliday sales for 2016 are expected to increase by 3.6%. This forecast number is above the 7-year average of 3.4% since the recovery began in 2009.

    On April 29, 2016, unadjusted estimates of monthly sales were revised by Census for January 2008 through March 2016. Growth rates are based on the most comparable data available. NRF holiday spending is defined as the months of November and December.

    nrf.com/holiday

    2.1% 5.1%

    6.8% 6.2%

    3.2% 2.7% -4.6% 0.2% 5.2%

    4.6% 2.6% 3.0%

    4.1%

    $100,000

    $200,000

    $300,000

    $400,000

    $500,000

    $600,000

    $700,000

    2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Holiday Retail Sales (in millions) % Holiday Sales Change

    HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SALES

    2016

    3.2% 3.6%

    $416

    ,416

    $437

    ,613

    $467

    ,195

    $496

    ,040

    $512

    ,105

    $525

    ,993

    $501

    ,594

    $502

    ,781

    $528

    ,930

    $553

    ,397

    $567

    ,771

    $613

    ,266

    $585

    ,088

    $632

    ,835

    $655

    ,870

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • nrf.com/url

    HISTORICAL HOLIDAY EMPLOYMENTThis holiday season, retailers could add as many as 690,000 new seasonal positions. This number is in line with last years 675,300 new holiday positions.

    On April 5, 2016, nonfarm employment was revised by BLS between March 2005-2015. NRF employment forecast excludes automobiles, gasoline and food services.

    nrf.com/holiday

    744.58

    483.35

    547.08 585.82

    679.98 684.43

    660.27

    688.38

    263.82

    368.76

    563.02

    636.57 660.3

    764.75 697.5

    675.3

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

    HOLIDAY EMPLOYMENT (IN THOUSANDS)

    640

    690

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • On April 29, 2016, unadjusted estimates of monthly sales were revised by Census for January 2008 through March 2016.

    nrf.com/url

    HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SALES BY SECTOR

    Retail Sales by Sector2015 2014

    HOLIDAY SALES(Nov/Dec, in

    Millions)

    ANNUAL SALES(in Millions)

    % ANNUAL SALES FROM

    HOLIDAY

    HOLIDAY SALES(Nov/Dec, in

    Millions)

    ANNUAL SALES(in Millions)

    % ANNUAL SALES FROM

    HOLIDAY

    Furniture and home furnishings stores 20,085 105,376 19.1% 19,104 99,687 19.2%

    Electronics and appliance stores 23,324 104,511 22.3% 24,551 104,012 23.6%

    Building mat. and garden equipment & supplies 53,933 332,561 16.2% 49,746 317,715 15.7%

    Food and beverage stores 120,117 690,225 17.4% 118,388 669,902 17.7%

    Health and personal care stores 56,100 312,751 17.9% 53,409 299,891 17.8%

    Clothing stores 40,369 187,939 21.5% 40,566 183,007 22.2%

    Shoe stores 6,738 33,753 20.0% 6,530 33,531 19.5%

    Jewelry stores 8,293 30,288 27.4% 8,359 31,625 26.4%

    Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores 21,012 90,418 23.2% 19,893 85,375 23.3%

    Discount dept. stores 24,424 106,344 23.0% 24,523 107,678 22.8%

    Department stores incl. leased Dept 40,377 167,079 24.2% 41,241 170,421 24.2%

    Warehouse clubs and superstores 84,305 440,142 19.2% 83,384 433,303 19.2%

    Electronic shopping and mail-order retailers 97,453 432,742 22.5% 86,521 386,135 22.4%

    nrf.com/holiday

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • nrf.com/url

    HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SPENDING BY CATEGORYFood and candy spending is estimated to reach just over $100, decorations will hover around $50 and spending on greeting cards and flowers will be in the $20-$27 range. This spending category is expected to reach a total of $207.07.

    nrf.com/holiday

    $$5544..7755

    $$2277..3344

    $104.57

    Historical Holiday Spending by Category 2004 2016

    Candy and food

    Decorations

    Greeting cards and postage

    Flowers andpotted plants

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • Missing from this chart is gift for others with consumers spending an average of $26.65.

    nrf.com/url

    HISTORICAL GIFT SPENDINGNearly everyone will purchase gifts for family, while 71% plan to purchase gifts for friends and a third will buy gifts for co-workers. When it comes to gifts, consumers are spending approximately $588.90.

    nrf.com/holiday

    $$446600..6677

    $76.83

    $$2244..775

    Gifts for family

    Gifts for friends

    Gifts for co-workers

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Historical Holiday Gift Spending 2004 - 2016

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • nrf.com/url

    HISTORICAL SPENDING ON NON-GIFT PURCHASES58% of consumers also plan to take advantage of holiday deals to make non-gift purchases, up 4.4% from last year. Total spending for this category has reached its second highest level ever at approximately $140.

    $88.99

    $84.73

    $94.70

    $97.26

    $106.67

    $101.37

    $112.20

    $137.17

    $140.43

    $134.77

    $126.37

    $133.74

    $139.61

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Total Spending on Non-Gift Purchases

    nrf.com/holiday

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • nrf.com/url

    MOST SHOPPERS WONT START UNTIL NOVEMBERSimilar to previous years, the majority of consumers wont start shopping until November, with nearly two in 10 waiting until December. But 41% tackle their lists right away, beginning in October or earlier. Top reasons for shopping early include spreading out the budget and avoiding crowds.

    Before September

    September

    October

    November

    First 2 weeks of December

    Last 2 weeks of December

    12.2% 6.5%

    21.9%

    41.4%

    15.0%

    3.0%

    When Consumers Plan to Start Shopping

    nrf.com/holiday

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • 6611..00%%

    5533..55%%

    4400..00%%

    3322..00%%

    2233..22%%

    2233..11%%

    2200..66%%

    1188..88%%

    1177..11%%

    66..66%%

    Gift cards / gift certificates

    Clothing or clothing accessories

    Books, CDs, DVDs, videos or video games

    Consumer electronics or computer-related accessories

    Jewelry or precious metal accessories

    Home dcor or home-related furnishings

    Personal care or beauty items

    Sporting goods or leisure items

    Home improvement items or tools

    Other

    nrf.com/url

    MORE CONSUMERS WANT GIFT CARDS THIS HOLIDAY SEASONWomen are more likely to wish for gift cards (69% vs 53%.) On the flip side, men love their gadgets: 41% want consumer electronics compared with only 24% of women.

    nrf.com/holiday

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • WHERE WILL CONSUMERS SHOP THIS HOLIDAY SEASON?Department stores and online sites will be the top places to shop this year. Online shopping is at its highest ever, up 6.8% from 2015. In a new addition to the survey this year, one in 10 consumers will shop at outlets.

    5566..66%%

    5566..55%%

    5555..77%%

    4444..55%%

    3333..66%%

    2266..99%%

    2222..77%%

    1177..33%%

    1155..00%%

    1133..55%%

    1100..11%%

    99..88%%

    99..00%%

    33..33%%

    Department store

    Online

    Discount store

    Grocery store/supermarket

    Clothing or accessories store

    Electronics store

    Local/small business

    Crafts or fabrics store

    Drug store

    Other specialty store

    Outlet stores

    Thrift stores/resale shops

    Catalog

    Other

    nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • GENEROUS HOLIDAY PROMOTIONS WILL BRING IN SHOPPERS

    7733..33%%

    6600..55%% 5599..22%%

    4488..22%%4444..99%%

    4411..11%%

    3355..33%%

    3300..22%%2288..33%%

    Sales orprice discounts

    Quality ofmerchandise

    Selection ofmerchandise

    Free shipping/shipping

    promotions

    HighestEver

    Convenientlocation

    Everydaylow prices

    No hasslereturn policy

    Easy websiteor mobile site

    Helpful,knowledgable

    customer service

    Top Factors for Choosing a Retailer

    HighestEver

    nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

    https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

  • HISTORICAL PLANNED SHOPPING FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND

    62.0% 61.1%58.7% 59.0%

    2013 2014 2015 2016

    Percentage of Consumers that Might or Will Shop Over Thanksgiving Weekend

    137.4 million unique potential shoppers might or will shop over Thanksgiving weekend. Nearly eight in 10 Millennials are likely to shop over Thanksgiving weekend, which is significantly higher than adults 35+.

    nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

    https://nrf.com/resources/cons

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