Austrian Academy of Sciences Press · Editors Helga Kromp-Kolb Nebojsa Nakicenovic Karl Steininger...

Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14)

Summary for Policymakersand

Synthesis

Editors

Helga Kromp-Kolb

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Karl Steininger

Andreas Gobiet

Herbert Formayer

Angela Köppl

Franz Prettenthaler

Johann Stötter

Jürgen Schneider

The assessment report was produced within the project ‘Austrian Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report’ funded by ‘The Climate and Energy Fund of the Austrian Federal Government’ within the framework of the ‘Austrian Climate Research Program’.

The present publication is a translation (revised edition) of the Zusammenfassung für Entscheidungstragende and the Synthese from the German language as published by the Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

The views and opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of the institutions that supported this work.

The publisher and supporting institutions do not guarantee the accuracy or permanent availability of URLs to external websites or websites by third parties mentioned in this publication and do not assume responsibility for the correctness and adequacy of the contents presented on those websites.

Vienna, November 2014

ISBN: 978-3-7001-7744-9ISBN (German version): 978-3-7001-7701-2ISBN (Complete version) 978-3-7001-7699-2

© with the Authors© Creative Commons non-commercial 3.0 licence

http://creativecommons.org/icenses/by-nc/3.0/deed.en

The Complete Edition was published with sponsorship of the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): PUB 221-V21

Cover page designAnka James based on Sabine Tschürtz in Munoz and Steininger, 2010.

Translations from GermanSummary for Policymakers: Bano Mehdi

Synthesis: Helga Kromp-Kolb, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Karl Steininger, Andreas Baumgarten, Birgit Bednar-Friedl, Ulrich Foelsche, Herbert Formayer, Clemens Geitner, Thomas Glade, Andreas Gobiet, Helmut Haberl, Regina Hitzenberger, Martin König, Manfred Lexer, Hanns Moshammer, Klaus Radunsky, Sigrid Stagl, Wolfgang Streicher, Wilfried Winiwarter

based on a draft by Adam Pawloff

Copy EditorKathryn Platzer, IIASA

Suggested citation of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM)APCC (2014): Summary for Policymakers (SPM), revised edition. In: Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14), Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC),

Austrian Academy of Sciences Press, Vienna, Austria.

Suggested citation of the SynthesisKromp-Kolb, H., N. Nakicenovic, R. Seidl, K. Steininger, B. Ahrens, I. Auer, A. Baumgarten, B. Bednar-Friedl, J. Eitzinger, U. Foelsche, H. Formayer, C.Geitner, T. Glade, A.

Gobiet, G. Grabherr, R. Haas, H. Haberl, L. Haimberger, R. Hitzenberger, M. König, A. Köppl, M. Lexer, W. Loibl, R. Molitor, H.Moshammer, H-P. Nachtnebel, F. Prettenthaler, W.Rabitsch, K. Radunsky, L. Schneider, H. Schnitzer, W.Schöner, N. Schulz, P. Seibert, S. Stagl, R. Steiger, H.Stötter, W. Streicher, W. Winiwarter(2014): Synthesis. In: Austrian

Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14), Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Austrian Academy of Sciences Press, Vienna, Austria.

Suggested citation of the complete editionAPCC (2014): Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der

Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, 1096 Seiten. ISBN 978-3-7001-7699-2

This publication includes the Summary for Policymakers (revised edition) and the Synthesis in English. These documents are translated excerpts from the comprehensive descriptions given in the complete edition of the report, to which chapters and volumes cited in this publication refer.

All parts of this report are published in the Austrian Academy of Sciences Press. The full version is available in bookstores. All publications can be downloaded from www.apcc.ac.at.

Austrian Academy of Sciences Press, Viennahttp://verlag.oeaw.ac.at

http://hw.oeaw.ac.at/7699-2

Print: Wograndl Druck GmbH, 7210 Mattersburg

Printed on acid-free, aging-resistant paper manufactured from non-chlorine bleached pulpPrinted in Austria

http://hw.oeaw.ac.at/7699-2

Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14)Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC)

Project LeaderNebojsa Nakicenovic

Organizing Committee Helga Kromp-Kolb, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Karl Steininger

Project ManagementLaura Morawetz

Co-ChairsBand 1: Andreas Gobiet, Helga Kromp-Kolb Band 2: Herbert Formayer, Franz Prettenthaler, Johann Stötter Band 3: Angela Köppl, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Jürgen Schneider, Karl Steininger

Coordinating Lead Authors Bodo Ahrens, Ingeborg Auer, Andreas Baumgarten, Birgit Bednar-Friedl, Josef Eitzinger, Ulrich Foelsche, Herbert Formayer, Clemens Geitner, Thomas Glade, Andreas Gobiet, Georg Grabherr, Reinhard Haas, Helmut Haberl, Leopold Haimberger, Regina Hitzenberger, Martin König, Helga Kromp-Kolb, Manfred Lexer, Wolfgang Loibl, Romain Molitor, Hanns Moshammer, Hans-Peter Nachtnebel, Franz Prettenthaler, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Klaus Ra-dunsky, Hans Schnitzer, Wolfgang Schöner, Niels Schulz, Petra Seibert, Sigrid Stagl, Robert Steiger, Johann Stötter, Wolfgang Streicher, Wilfried Winiwarter

Review EditorsBrigitte Bach, Sabine Fuss, Dieter Gerten, Martin Gerzabek, Peter Houben, Carsten Loose, Hermann Lotze-Cam-pen, Fred Luks, Wolfgang Mattes, Sabine McCallum, Urs Neu, Andrea Prutsch, Mathias Rotach

Scientific Advisory BoardJill Jäger, Daniela Jacob, Dirk Messner

Review ProcessMathis Rogner, Keywan Riahi

SecretariatBenedikt Becsi, Simon De Stercke, Olivia Koland, Heidrun Leitner, Julian Matzenberger, Bano Mehdi, Pat Wagner, Brigitte Wolkinger

Copy EditingKathryn Platzer

Layout and FormattingValerie Braun, Kati Heinrich, Tobias Töpfer

Contributing Institutions

The following institutions thankfully enabled their employees to participate in the development of the AAR14 and thus contribu-

ted substantially to the report:

Alpen-Adria University Klagenfurt - Vienna - GrazalpS GmbHAustrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW)Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES)Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management; Dep. IV/4 – Water balanceAustrian Institute for Technology (AIT)Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)Austrian Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology, Department for Energy and Environmental TechnologiesAustrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW)BIOENERGY2020+ GmbHClimate Change Centre Austria (CCCA)Climate Policy Initiative, Venice OfficeDanube University of KremsEnvironment Agency AustriaFederal Agency for Water ManagementFederal Government of Lower AustriaGerman Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)German Development Institute (DIE)Graz University of Technology (TU Graz)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)J.W.v. Goethe University of Frankfurt am MainJoanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbHkomobile w7 GmbHKonrad Lorenz Institute of EthologyLehr- und Forschungszentrum Raumberg-GumpensteinLeibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering Potsdam-Bornim (ATB)Management Center Innsbruck (MCI)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M)Medical University of ViennaMercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate ChangeMODUL University ViennaNature Protection Society StyriaOffice of the Provincial Government of TyrolPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Society for Renewable Energy GleisdorfStatistics AustriaSustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI)Swiss Academy of SciencesUniversity of BayreuthUniversity of Graz (Uni Graz)University of InnsbruckUniversity of LeidenUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU)University of Salzburg (Uni Salzburg)University of Veterinary Medicine HannoverUniversity of Vienna (Uni Wien)Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Wien)Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien)

Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie and Geodynamik (ZAMG)

Table of content


Foreword 9

Summary for Policymakers 11

Synthesis 31

Appendix: Underlying documents 91

Foreword

At my inauguration after re-election in 2010, I addressed the challenge of climate

change and acknowledged Austria’s responsibility to contribute to the solution of this

global problem. Since then, in a three-year joint and gratuitous eff ort, over 200 scien-

tists in Austria have brought together their knowledge across disciplinary boundaries,

to jointly paint a comprehensive and scientifi cally sound picture of climate change in

Austria for the public and for decision makers.

Complementary to the global view of the Fifth Assessment Report of the In-

tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Austrian Assessment Report

Climate Change (AAR14) of the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC) now

summarizes what is known about climate change in Austria, its current and possible

future impacts as well as adaptation and mitigation measures. It draws the conclusion

that Austria has not suffi ciently fulfi lled its responsibility to date. But the report also

shows that there are many options for action, many of which would be benefi cial quite

independent of climate change.

Th e scientifi c community has impressively demonstrated that they take climate

change seriously. Hopefully their work will trigger increased political eff orts for cli-

mate protection in Austria and strengthen civil society and the wider public in their

(growing) engagement for a livable future.

Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014

Summary for Policymakers

Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014

Summary for Policymakers

Coordinating Lead Authors of the Summary for PolicymakersHelga Kromp-KolbNebojsa NakicenovicKarl Steininger

Lead Authors of the Summary for PolicymakersBodo Ahrens, Ingeborg Auer, Andreas Baumgarten, Birgit Bednar-Friedl, Josef Eitzinger, Ulrich Foelsche, Herbert Formayer, Clemens Geitner, Thomas Glade, Andreas Gobiet, Georg Grabherr, Reinhard Haas, Helmut Haberl, Leopold Haimberger, Regina Hitzenberger, Martin König, Angela Köppl, Manfred Lexer, Wolfgang Loibl, Romain Molitor, Hanns Moshammer, Hans-Peter Nachtnebel, Franz Prettenthaler, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Klaus Radunsky, Jürgen Schneider, Hans Schnitzer, Wolfgang Schöner, Niels Schulz, Petra Seibert, Rupert Seidl, Sigrid Stagl, Robert Steiger, Johann Stötter, Wolfgang Streicher, Wilfried Winiwarter

TranslationBano Mehdi

CitationAPCC (2014): Summary for Policymakers (SPM), revised edition. In: Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14), Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Austrian Academy of Sciences Press, Vienna, Austria.

Table of content

Introduction 14

The Global Context 14

Climate Change in Austria: Past and Future 15

Summary for Austria: Impacts and Policy Measures 16

Impacts on Sectors and Measures of Mitigation and Adaptation 20Soils and Agriculture 20Forestry 21Biodiversity 22Energy 23Transport and Industry 24Tourism 25Infrastructure 26Health and Society 27Transformation 28

Figure Credits 28


14

Introduction

Over the course of a three-year process, Austrian scientists

researching in the field of climate change have produced an

assessment report on climate change in Austria following the

model of the IPCC Assessment Reports. In this extensive

work, more than 200 scientists depict the state of knowledge

on climate change in Austria and the impacts, mitigation and

adaptation strategies, as well as the associated known politi-

cal, economic and social issues. The Austrian Climate Research

Program (ACRP) of the Klima- und Energiefonds (Climate and

Energy Fund) has enabled this work by financing the coor-

dinating activities and material costs. The extensive and sub-

stantial body of work has been carried out gratuitously by the

researchers.

This summary for policy makers provides the most signifi-

cant general statements. First, the climate in Austria in the

global context is presented; next the past and future climate

is depicted, followed by a summary for Austria on the main

consequences and measures. The subsequent section then pro-

vides more detail on individual sectors. More extensive expla-

nations can be found – in increasing detail – in the synthesis

report and in the full report (Austrian Assessment Report,

2014), both of which are available in bookstores and on the

Internet.

The uncertainties are described using the IPCC procedure

where three different approaches are provided to express the

uncertainties depending on the nature of the available data

and on the nature of the assessment of the accuracy and com-

pleteness of the current scientific understanding by the au-

thors. For a qualitative evaluation, the uncertainty is described

using a two-dimensional scale where a relative assessment is

given on the one hand for the quantity and the quality of evi-

dence (i. e. information from theory, observations or models

indicating whether an assumption or assertion holds true or

is valid), and on the other hand to the degree of agreement in

the literature. This approach uses a series of self-explanatory

terms such as: high / medium / low evidence, and strong / me-

dium / low agreement. The joint assessment of both of these

dimensions is described by a confidence level using five quali-

fiers from „very high confidence“ to „high”, „medium“, „low“

and „very low confidence“. By means of expert assessment of

the correctness of the underlying data, models or analyses, a

quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty is provided to assess

the likelihood of the uncertainty pertaining to the outcome

of the results using eight degrees of probability from „virtu-

ally certain“ to „more unlikely than likely“. The probability

refers to the assessment of the likelihood of a well-defined re-

sult which has occurred or will occur in the future. These can

be derived from quantitative analyses or from expert opinion.

For more detailed information please refer to the Introduction

chapter in AAR14. If the description of uncertainty pertains to

a whole paragraph, it will be found at the end of it, otherwise

the uncertainty assessment is given after the respective state-

ment.

The research on climate change in Austria has received sig-

nificant support in recent years, driven in particular by the

Klima- und Energiefonds (Climate and Energy Fund) through

the ACRP, the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) and the EU re-

search programs. Also own funding of research institutions has

become a major source of funding. However, many questions

still remain open. Similar to the process at the international

level, a periodic updating of the Austrian Assessment Report

would be desirable to enable the public, politicians, adminis-

tration, company managers and researchers to make the best

and most effective decisions pertaining to the long-term hori-

zon based on the most up-to-date knowledge.

The Global Context

With the progress of industrialization, significant changes to

the climate can be observed worldwide. For example, in the

period since 1880 the global average surface temperature has

increased by almost 1 °C. In Austria, this warming was close to

2 °C, half of which has occurred since 1980. These changes are

mainly caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse

gases (GHG) and other human activities that affect the radia-

tion balance of the earth. The contribution of natural climate

variability to global warming most likely represents less than

half of the change. That the increase in global average tem-

perature since 1998 has remained comparatively small is likely

attributed to natural climate variability.

Without extensive additional measures to reduce emissions

one can expect a global average surface temperature rise of

3–5 °C by 2100 compared to the first decade of the 20th cen-

tury (see Figure 1). For this increase, self-reinforcing processes

(feedback loops), such as the ice-albedo feedback or additional

release of greenhouse gases due to the thawing of permafrost

in the Arctic regions will play an important role (see Volume 1,

Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chapter 1)1.

1 The full text of the Austrian Assessment Report AAR14 is divided into three volumes, which are further divided into chapters. Informa-tion and reference to the relevant section of the AAR14 is provided with the number of the volume (Band) and the respective chapter (Kapitel) where more detailed information can be found pertaining to the summary statements.

Summary

15

Climate change and the associated impacts show large re-

gional differences. For example, the Mediterranean region can

expect a prominent decrease in precipitation as well as associ-

ated water availability (see Volume 1, Chapter 4). While, con-

sidering the highest emission scenario of a rise in mean sea lev-

el of the order 0.5–1 m by the end of the century compared to

the current level, poses considerable problems in many densely

populated coastal regions (see Volume 1 Chapter 1).

Since the consequences of unbridled anthropogenic climate

change would be accordingly serious for humanity, interna-

tionally binding agreements on emissions reductions are al-

ready in place. In addition, many countries and groups includ-

ing the United Nations („Sustainable Development Goals“),

the European Union, the G-20 as well as cities, local authori-

ties and businesses have set further-reaching goals. In the

Copenhagen Accord (UNFCCC Copenhagen Accord) and

in the EU Resolution, a goal to limit the global temperature

increase to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial times is consid-

ered as necessary to limit dangerous climate change impacts.

However, the steps taken by the international community on

a voluntary basis for emission reduction commitments are

not yet sufficient to meet the 2 °C target. In the long-term,

an almost complete avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions is

required, which means converting the energy supply and the

industrial processes, to cease deforestation, and also to change

land use and lifestyles (see Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3,

Chapter 6).

The likelihood of achieving the 2 °C target is higher if it is

possible to achieve a turnaround by 2020 and the global green-

house gas emissions by 2050 are 30–70 % below the 2010 lev-

els. (see Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chapter 6). Since in-

dustrialized countries are responsible for most of the historical

emissions – and have benefited from them and hence are also

economically more powerful – Article 4 of the UNFCCC sug-

gests that they should contribute to a disproportionate share

of total global emission reduction. In the EU „Roadmap for

moving to a competitive low-CO2 economy by 2050“ a reduc-

tion in greenhouse gas emissions by 80–95 % compared to the

1990 level is foreseen. Despite of the fact that no emission re-

duction obligations were defined for this period for individual

Member States, Austria can expect a reduction commitment

of similar magnitude.

Climate Change in Austria: Past and Future

In Austria, the temperature in the period since 1880 rose

by nearly 2 °C, compared with a global increase of 0.85 °C.

The increased rise is particularly observable for the period after

1980, in which the global increase of about 0.5 °C is in con-

trast to an increase of approximately 1 °C in Austria (virtually

certain, see Volume 1, Chapter 3).

A further temperature increase in Austria is expected

(very likely). In the first half of the 21st century, it equals ap-

proximately 1.4 °C compared to current temperature, and is

not greatly affected by the different emission scenarios due to

the inertia in the climate system as well as the longevity of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The temperature develop-

ment thereafter, however, is strongly dependent on anthropo-

genic greenhouse gas emissions in the years ahead now, and

can therefore be steered (very likely, see Volume 1, Chapter 4).

The development of precipitation in the last 150 years

shows significant regional differences: In western Austria, an

increase in annual precipitation of about 10–15 % was record-

ed, in the southeast, however, there was a decrease in a similar

order of magnitude (see Volume 1, Chapter 3).

In the 21st century, an increase of precipitation in the

winter months and a decrease in the summer months is to

be expected (likely). The annual average shows no clear trend

signal, since Austria lies in the larger transition region between

two zones with opposing trends – ranging from an increase in

Figure 1 Global mean surface temperature anoma-lies (°C) relative to the average temperature of the first decade of the 20th century, historical development, and four groups of trends for the future: two IPCC SRES scenarios without emission reductions (A1B and A1F1), which show temperature increases to about 5 °C or just over 3 °C to the year 2100, and four new emission scenarios, which were developed for the IPCC AR5 (RCP8, 5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6), 42 GEA emission reduc-tion scenarios and the range of IPCC AR5 scenarios which show the temperature to stabilize in 2100 at a maximum of +2 °C. Data sources: IPCC SRES (Nakice-novic et al. 2000), IPCC WG I (2014) and GEA (2012)1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Historical evolutionH

RCP 2.6

RCP 4.5

RCP 6.0

RCP 8.5

Dev

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m th

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obal

mea

n s

urfa

ce te

mpe

ratu

re (°

C)

GEA

IPCC SRES A1Fl

IPCC SRES A1B

IPCC AR5 430-480 ppm CO2-eq.-range


16

1980, therefore a further decline of the glacier surface area is

expected (very likely). A further increase in the permafrost el-

evation is expected (very likely, see Volume 2, Chapter 4).

Temperature extremes have changed markedly, so that

for example, cold nights are rarer, but hot days have become

more common. In the 21st century, this development will in-

tensify and continue, and thus the frequency of heat waves will

also increase (very likely, see Volume 1, Chapter 3; Volume 1,

Chapter 4,). For extreme precipitation, no uniform trends are

detectable as yet (see Volume 1, Chapter 3). However, climate

models show that heavy and extreme precipitation events are

likely to increase from autumn to spring (see Volume 1, Chap-

ter 4). Despite some exceptional storm events in recent years,

a long-term increase in storm activity cannot be detected. Also

for the future, no change in storm frequency can be derived

(see Volume 1, Chapter 3; Volume 1, Chapter 4).

Summary for Austria: Impacts and Policy Measures

The economic impact of extreme weather events in Austria

are already substantial and have been increasing in the last

three decades (virtually certain, see Volume 2, Chapter 6).

The emergence of damage costs during the last three decades

suggests that changes in the frequency and intensity of such

damaging events would have significant impacts on the econ-

omy of Austria.

The potential economic impacts of the expected climate

change in Austria are mainly determined by extreme events

and extreme weather periods (medium confidence, see Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 6). In addition to extreme events, gradual

temperature and precipitation changes also have economic

ramifications, such as shifts in potential yields in agriculture,

in the energy sector, or in snow-reliability in ski areas with cor-

responding impacts on winter tourism.

In mountainous regions, significant increases in land-

slides, mudflows, rockfalls and other gravitational mass

movements will occur (very likely, high confidence). This

is due to changes in rainfall, thawing permafrost and retreat-

ing glaciers, but also to changes in land use (very likely, high

confidence). Mountain flanks will be vulnerable to events

such as rockfall (very likely, high confidence, see Volume 2,

Chapter 4) and landslides (likely, medium confidence, see

Volume 2, Chapter 4), and debris masses that were previously

fixed by permafrost will be mobilized by debris flows (most

likely high confidence, see Volume 2, Chapter 4).

The risk of forest fires will increase in Austria. The risk of

forest fires will increase due to the expected warming trend and

North Europe to a decrease in the Mediterranean (likely, see

Volume 1, Chapter 4).

In the last 130 years, the annual sunshine duration has

increased for all the stations in the Alps by approximately

20 % or more than 300 hours. The increase in the summer

half of the year was stronger than in the winter half of the year

(virtually certain, see Volume 1, Chapter 3). Between 1950

and 1980 there was an increase in cloud cover and increased

air pollution, especially in the valleys, and therefore a signifi-

cant decrease in the duration of sunshine hours in the summer

(see Volume 1, Chapter 3).

The duration of snow cover has been reduced in recent

decades, especially in mid-altitude elevations (approximate-

ly 1 000 m above sea level) (very likely, see Volume 2, Chap-

ter 2). Since both the snow line, and thus also the snowpack, as

well as the snowmelt are temperature dependent, it is expected

that a further increase in temperature will be associated with a

decrease in snow cover at mid-altitude elevations (very likely,

see Volume 2, Chapter 2).

All observed glaciers in Austria have clearly shown a re-

duction in surface area and in volume in the period since

1980. For example, in the southern Ötztal Alps, the larg-

est contiguous glacier region of Austria, the glacier area of

144.2 km² in the year 1969 has decreased to 126.6 km² in

1997 and to 116.1 km² in 2006 (virtually certain, see Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 2). The Austrian glaciers are particularly sen-

sitive in the retraction phase to summer temperatures since

Figure 2 Mean surface air temperature (oC) in Austria from 1800 to 2100, expressed as a deviation from the mean temperature for the period 1971 to 2000. Measurements to the year 2010 are illustrated in color, model calculations for one of the IPCC emissions scenarios with higher GHG emissions (IPCC SRES A1B scenario) in gray. Reproduced are annual means (columns) and the 20-year smoothed curve (line). You can see the temperature drop just before 1900 and the sharp rise in temperature (about 1 °C) since the 1980s. In this scenario, by the end of the century, a rise in tempera-ture of 3.5 °C can be expected (RECLIP simulations). Source: ZAMG

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Tem

pera

ture

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C]

−4

−2

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2

6

Avg.

cha

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20

21−2

050

Avg.

cha

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20

71−2

100

Range of ENSEMBLES Simula�ons

Smoothed Yearly Devia�ons from HISTALP Observa�onsRange of RECLIP Simula�onsAverage of RECLIP Simula�ons

4

Summary

17

the increasing likelihood of prolonged summer droughts (very

likely, high confidence, see Volume 2, Chapter 4).

Changes to sediment loads in river systems are notice-

able. Due to changes in the hydrological and in the sediment

regimes (mobilization, transport and deposition) major chang-

es can be expected in mountain torrents and in large river sys-

tems (very likely, high confidence, see Volume 2, Chapter 4).

The decisive factor here is to distinguish between changes due

to climate change and due to human impact.

Due to the currently foreseeable socio-economic devel-

opment and climate change, the loss potential due to cli-

mate change in Austria will increase for the future (medium

confidence, see Volume 2, Chapter 3; Volume 2, Chapter 6). A

variety of factors determine the future costs of climate change:

In addition to the possible change in the distribution of ex-

treme events and gradual climate change, it is mainly socio-

economic and demographic factors that will ultimately deter-

mine the damage costs. These include, amongst others, the age

structure of the population in urban areas, the value of ex-

posed assets, the development of infrastructure for example in

avalanche or landslide endangered areas, as well as overall land

use, which largely control the vulnerability to climate change.

Without increased efforts to adapt to climate change,

Austria’s vulnerability to climate change will increase in the

decades ahead (high confidence, see Volume 2, Chapter 6).

In Austria climate change particularly influences the weather-

dependent sectors and areas such as agriculture and forestry,

tourism, hydrology, energy, health and transport and the sec-

tors that are linked to these (high confidence, see Volume 2,

Chapter 3). It is to be expected that adaptation measures can

somewhat mitigate the negative impacts of climate change,

but they cannot fully offset them (medium confidence, see


In 2012 Austria adopted a national adaptation strategy

specifically in order to cope with the consequences of cli-

mate change (see Volume 3, Chapter 1). The effectiveness of

this strategy will be measured principally by how successful in-

dividual sectors, or rather policy areas, will be in the develop-

ment of appropriate adaptation strategies and their implemen-

tation. The criteria for their evaluation, such as a regular survey

of the effectiveness of adaptation measures, as other nations

have already implemented, are not yet developed in Austria.

In 2010 the greenhouse gas emissions in Austria

amounted to a total of approximately 81 Mt CO2-equiva-

lents (CO2-eq.) or 9.7 t CO

2-eq. per capita (very high con-

fidence, see Volume 1, Chapter 2). These figures take into ac-

count the emission contribution of land-use changes through

the carbon uptake of ecosystems. The Austrian per capita emis-

sions are slightly higher than the EU average of 8.8 t CO2-eq.

per capita per year and significantly higher than those for ex-

ample of China (5.6 t CO2-eq. per capita per year), but much

lower than those of the U.S. (18.4 t CO2-eq. per person per

year) (see Volume 1, Chapter 2). Austria has made commit-

ments in the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its emissions. After cor-

recting for the part of the carbon sinks that can be claimed

according to the agreement, the emissions for the commit-

ment period 2008 to 2012 were 18.8 % higher than the re-

duction target of 68.8 M CO2-eq. per year (see Volume 3,

Chapter 1).

By also accounting for the Austrian consumption-related

CO2-emissions abroad, the emission values for Austria are

almost 50 % higher (high confidence Volume 3, Chapter 5).

Austria is a contributor of emissions in other nations. Incor-

porating these emissions on the one hand, and adjusting for

the Austrian export-attributable emissions on the other hand,

one arrives at the „consumption-based“ emissions of Austria.

These are significantly higher than the emissions reported in

the previous paragraph, and in the UN statistics reported for

Austria, and this tendency is increasing (in 1997 they were

38 % and in 2004 they were 44 % higher than those reported).

From the commodity flows it can be inferred that Austrian

imports are responsible for emissions particularly from south

Asia and from east Asia, specifically China, and from Russia

(see Figure 3).

The national greenhouse gas emissions have increased

since 1990, although under the Kyoto Protocol Aus-

tria has committed to a reduction of 13 % over the peri-

od 2008 to 2012 compared to 1990 (virtually certain, see

Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chapter 6). The Austrian

goal was set relatively high compared to other industrialized

countries. Formally compliance with this reduction target for

2008 to 2012 was achieved through the purchase of emission

rights abroad amounting to a total of about 80 Mt CO2-eq. for

roughly € 500 million (very high confidence, see Volume 3,

Chapter 1).

In Austria, efforts are underway to improve energy effi-

ciency and to promote renewable energy sources; however,

the objectives pertaining to renewables and energy efficiency

are not sufficiently backed by tangible measures to make them

achievable. Thus, in 2010 an energy strategy was released which

proposes that the final energy consumption in 2020 should

not exceed the level of 2005; an amount of 1 100 PJ. However,

this has not yet been implemented with adequate measures.

Austria’s Green Electricity Act (Ökostromgesetz) stipulates that

an additional power generation of 10.5 TWh (37.8 PJ) per

year up to 2020 should be from renewable sources. The energy


18

sector and the industry are largely regulated under the „EU

ETS“, the further development of which is currently negoti-

ated. In particular, the transport sector currently lacks eff ective

measures.

Austria has set only short-term reduction targets for its

climate and energy program, namely for the period up to

2020 (see Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chapter 6). Th is

corresponds to the binding EU targets, but to adequately

tackle the problem other countries have set longer-term GHG

reduction targets. For example, Germany has set a reduction

target of 85 % to 2050. Th e UK intends to achieve a reduction

of 80 % by 2050 (see Volume 3, Chapter 1).

Th e measures taken so far are insuffi cient to meet the

expected contribution of Austria to achieve the global 2 °C

target (high confi dence, see Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3,

Chapter 6). Th e actions specifi ed by Austria are based on the

objectives for the year 2020; the goals for developing renew-

able energy sources in Austria are not suffi ciently ambitious

and are likely to be achieved well before 2020. It is unlikely

that an actual change in emission trends will be achieved in

the industrial and transport sectors, while the turnaround that

has already taken place for space heating is likely to be insuf-

fi cient (see Volume 3, Chapter 3; Volume 3, Chapter 5). Th e

expected greenhouse gas emissions savings due to the replace-

ment of fossil fuels with biofuels are increasingly being called

into question (see Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Institutional, economic, social and knowledge barriers

slow progress with respect to mitigation and adaptation.

Measures to eliminate or overcome these barriers include a re-

forming of administrative structures with respect to relevant

tasks at hand, such as the pricing of products and services ac-

cording to their climate impact. A key factor in this regard

includes an abolition of environmentally harmful fi nancing

and subsidies; for example, for the exploration of new fossil

reserves, or the commuter support which favors the use of the

cars, or housing subsidies for single-family homes in the ur-

ban vicinity. Also, having a strong involvement of civil society

and of science in the decision-making processes can accelerate

necessary measures. Relevant knowledge gaps should be ad-

dressed because they also delay further action, however they

do not belong to the most important factors (high confi dence,

see Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chapter 6).

Figure 3 CO2 streams from the trade of goods to / from Austria according to major world regions. The emissions implicitly contained in the imported goods are shown with red arrows, the emissions contained in the exported goods, attributed to Austria, are shown with white arrows. Overall, south Asia and east Asia, particularly China, and Russia, are evident as regions from which Austria imports emission-intensive consu-mer- and capital- goods. Source: Munoz and Steininger (2010)

Summary

19

According to scenario simulations, emission reductions

of up to 90 % can be achieved in Austria by 2050 through

additional implementation measures (high confidence, see

Volume 3, Chapter 3; Volume 3, Chapter 6). These scenar-

ios are obtained from studies that focus on the energy sup-

ply and demand. However, currently there is a lack of clear

commitment on the part of the decision-makers to emission

reductions of such a magnitude. In addition, so far there is no

clear perception pertaining to the financial or other economic

and social framework conditions on how the listed objectives

could be achieved. In addition to technological innovations,

far-reaching economic and socio-cultural changes are required

(e. g. in production, consumption and lifestyle).

According to the scenarios, the target set by the EU can

be achieved by halving the energy consumption in Austria

by 2050. It is expected that the remaining energy demand

can be covered by renewable energy sources. The economi-

cally available potential of renewable resources within Austria

is quantified at approximately 600 PJ. As a comparison, the

current final energy consumption is 1 100 PJ per year (see Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 3). The potential to improve energy efficiency

exists, particularly in the sectors of buildings, transportation

and production (high confidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 3;


Striving for a swift and serious transformation to a

carbon-neutral economic system requires a cross-sectoral

closely coordinated approach with new types of institu-

tional cooperation in an inclusive climate policy. The in-

dividual climate mitigation strategies in the various economic

sectors and related areas are not sufficient. Other types of

transformations should also be taken into account, such as

those of the energy system, because decentralized production,

storage and control system for fluctuating energy sources and

international trade are gaining in importance (medium con-

fidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 3). Concurrently, numerous

small plant operators with partially new business models are

entering the market.

An integrative and constructive climate policy contrib-

utes to managing other current challenges. One example

is economic structures become more resistant with respect to

outside influences (financial crisis, energy dependence). This

means the intensification of local business cycles, the reduc-

tion of international dependencies and a much higher pro-

ductivity of all resources, especially of energy (see Volume 3,

Chapter 1).

The achievement of the 2050 targets only appears likely

with a paradigm shift in the prevailing consumption and

behavior patterns and in the traditional short-term ori-

ented policies and decision-making processes (high con-

fidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 6). Sustainable development

approaches which contribute both to a drastic departure from

historical trends as well as individual sector-oriented strategies

and business models can contribute to the required GHG re-

ductions (probably, see Volume 3, Chapter 6). New integra-

tive approaches in terms of sustainable development require

not necessarily novel technological solutions, but most im-

portantly a conscious reorientation of established, harmful

lifestyle habits and in the behavior of economic stakeholders.

Worldwide, there are initiatives for transformations in the di-

rection of sustainable development paths, such as the energy

turnaround in Germany (Energiewende), the UN initiative

„Sustainable Energy for All“, a number of „Transition Towns“

or the „Slow Food“ movement and the vegetarian diet. Only

the future will show which initiatives will be successful (see


Demand-side measures such as changes in diet, regula-

tions and reduction of food losses will play a key role in

climate protection. Shifting to a diet based on dominant re-

gional and seasonal plant-based products, with a significant

reduction in the consumption of animal products can make

a significant contribution to greenhouse gas reduction (most

likely, high confidence). The reduction of losses in the entire

food life cycle (production and consumption) can make a sig-

nificant contribution to greenhouse gas reduction. (very likely,

medium confidence).

The necessary changes required to attain the targets in-

clude the transformation of economic organizational forms

and orientations (high confidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 6).

The housing sector has a high need for renewal; the renova-

tion of buildings can be strengthened through new financing

mechanisms. The fragmented transport system can be further

developed into an integrated mobility system. In terms of pro-

duction, new products, processes and materials can be devel-

oped that also ensure Austria is not left behind in the global

competition. The energy system can be aligned along the per-

spective of energy services in an integrated manner.

In a suitable political framework, the transformation

can be promoted (high confidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 1;

Volume 3, Chapter 6). In Austria, there is a willingness to

change. Pioneers (individuals, businesses, municipalities, re-

gions) are implementing their ideas already, for example in the

field of energy services, or climate-friendly mobility and local

supply. Such initiatives can be strengthened through policies

that create a supportive environment.

New business and financing models are essential ele-

ments of the transformation. Financing instruments (beyond


20

the subsidies primarily used so far) and new business models

relate mainly to the conversion of the energy selling enter-

prises to specialists for energy services. The energy efficiency

can be significantly increased and made profitable, legal obli-

gations can drive building restoration, collective investments

in renewables or efficiency measures can be made possible by

adapting legal provisions. Communication policy and regional

planning can facilitate the use of public transport and emis-

sion-free transport, such as is the case for example in Switzer-

land (see Volume 3, Chapter 6). Long-term financing models

(for buildings for example for 30 to 40 years), which are espe-

cially endowed by pension funds and insurance companies can

facilitate new infrastructure. The required transformation has

global dimensions, therefore efforts abroad, showing solidar-

ity, should be discussed, including provisions for the Frame-

work Convention Climate Fund.

Major investments in infrastructure with long lifespans

limit the degrees of freedom in the transformation to sus-

tainability if greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation

to climate change are not considered. If all projects had a

„climate-proofing“ subject to consider integrated climate

change mitigation and appropriate adaptation strategies, this

would avoid so-called „lock-in effects“ that create long-term

emission-intensive path dependencies (high confidence, see

Volume 3, Chapter 6). The construction of coal power plants

is an example. At the national level this includes the dispro-

portionate weight given to road expansion, the construction

of buildings, which do not meet current ecological standards

– that could be met at justifiable costs – and regional planning

with high land consumption inducing excessive traffic.

A key area of transformation is related to cities and

densely settled areas (high confidence, see Volume 3, Chapter

6). The potential synergies in urban areas that can be used in

many cases to protect the climate are attracting greater atten-

tion. These include, for example, efficient cooling and heating

of buildings, shorter routes and more efficient implementation

of public transport, easier access to training or education and

thus accelerated social transformation.

Climate-relevant transformation is often directly related

to health improvements and accompanied by an increase in

the quality of life (high confidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 4;

Volume 3, Chapter 6). For the change from car to bike, for

example, a positive-preventive impact on cardiovascular dis-

eases has been proven, as have been further health-improving

effects, that significantly increase life expectancy, in addition

to positive environmental impacts. Health supporting effects

have also been proven for a sustainable diet (e. g. reduced meat

consumption).

Climate change will increase the migration pressure,

also towards Austria. Migration has many underlying causes.

In the southern hemisphere, climate change will have particu-

larly strong impacts and will be a reason for increased migra-

tion mainly within the Global South. The IPCC estimates that

by 2020 in Africa and Asia alone 74 million to 250 million

people will be affected. Due to the African continent being

particularly impacted, refugees from Africa to Europe are ex-

pected to increase (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Climate change is only one of many global challenges,

but a very central one (very high confidence, see Volume 2,

Chapter 6; Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chapter 5). A

sustainable future also deals with for example issues of com-

bating poverty, a focus on health, social human resources, the

availability of water and food, having intact soils, the quality

of the air, loss of biodiversity, as with ocean acidification and

overfishing (very high confidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 6).

These questions are not independent of each other: climate

change often exacerbates the other problems. And therefore

it often affects the most vulnerable populations the most se-

verely. The community of states has triggered a UN process to

formulate sustainable development goals after 2015 (Sustain-

able Development Goals). Climate change is at the heart of

these targets and many global potential conflict areas. Climate

mitigation measures can thus generate a number of additional

benefits to achieve further global objectives (high confidence,

see Volume 3, Chapter 6).

Impacts on Sectors and Measures of Mitigation and Adaptation

Soils and Agriculture

Climate change leads to the loss of humus and to green-

house gas emissions from the soil. Temperature rise, tem-

perature extremes and dry periods, more pronounced freezing

and thawing in winter as well as strong and long drying out of

the soil followed by heavy precipitation enhance certain pro-

cesses in the soil that can lead to an impairment of soil func-

tions, such as soil fertility, water and nutrient storage capacity,

humus depletion causing soil erosion, and others. This results

in increased greenhouse gas emissions from soil (very likely, see


Human intervention increases the area of soils with

a lower resilience to climate change. Soil sealing and

the consequences of unsuitable land use and management

such as compaction, erosion and loss of humus further re-

strict soil functions and reduce the soil’s ability to buf-

Summary

21

fer the effects of climate change (very likely, see Volume 2,

Chapter 5).

The impacts of climate change on agriculture vary by

region. In cooler, wetter areas – for example, in the northern

foothills of the Alps – a warmer climate mainly increases the

average potential yield of crops. In precipitation poorer areas

north of the Danube and in eastern and south-eastern Austria,

increasing drought and heat-stress reduce the long term aver-

age yield potential, especially of non-irrigated crops, and in-

crease the risk of failure. The production potential of warmth-

loving crops, such as corn or grapes, will expand significantly

(very likely, see Volume 2, Chapter 3).

Heat tolerant pests will propagate in Austria. The dam-

age potential of agriculture through – in part newly emerging

– heat tolerant insects will increase. Climate change will also

alter the occurrence of diseases and weeds (very likely, see Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 3).

Livestock will also suffer from climate change. Increasing

heat waves can reduce the performance and increase the risk of

disease in farm animals (very likely, see Volume 2, Chapter 3).

Adaptation measures in the agricultural sector can be

implemented at varying rates. Within a few years measures

such as improved evapotranspiration control on crop land

(e. g. efficient mulch cover, reduced tillage, wind protection),

more efficient irrigation methods, cultivation of drought- or

heat-resistant species or varieties, heat protection in animal

husbandry, a change in cultivation and processing periods as

well as crop rotation, frost protection, hail protection and risk

insurance are feasible (very likely, see Volume 3, Chapter 2).

In the medium term, feasible adaptation measures include

soil and erosion protection, humus build up in the soil, soil

conservation practices, water retention strategies, improve-

ment of irrigation infrastructure and equipment, warning,

monitoring and forecasting systems for weather-related risks,

breeding stress-resistant varieties, risk distribution through

diversification, increase in storage capacity as well as animal

breeding and adjustments to stable equipment and to farming

technology (very likely, see Volume 3, Chapter 2).

The shifts caused by a future climate in the suitability for

the cultivation of warmth-loving crops (such as grain corn,

sunflower, soybean) is shown in Figure 4 for the example of

grapes for wine production. Many other heat tolerant crops

such as corn, sunflower or soybean show similar expansions in

areas suitable for their cultivation in future climate as is shown

here for the case of wine (see Volume 2, Chapter 3).

Agriculture can reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a va-

riety of ways and enhance carbon sinks. If remaining at cur-

rent production volume levels, the greatest potentials lie in the

areas of ruminant nutrition, fertilization practices, reduction of

nitrogen losses and increasing the nitrogen efficiency (very like-

ly, see Volume 3, Chapter 2). Sustainable strategies for reduc-

ing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture require resource-

saving and efficient management practices involving organic

farming, precision farming and plant breeding whilst con-

serving genetic diversity (probably, see Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Forestry

A warmer and drier climate will strongly impact the bio-

mass productivity of Austrian forests. Due to global warm-

ing, the biomass productivity increases in mountainous areas

and in regions that receive sufficient precipitation. However,

in eastern and northeastern lowlands and in inner-alpine ba-

sins, the productivity declines, due to more dry periods (high

agreement, robust evidence, see Volume 2, Chapter 3; Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 2).

In all of the examined climate scenarios, the disturbanc-

es to forest ecosystems are increasing in intensity and in

frequency. This is particularly true for the occurrence of heat-

tolerant insects such as the bark beetle. In addition, new types

of damage can be expected from harmful organisms that have

been imported or that have migrated from southern regions.

Abiotic disturbances such as storms, late and early frosts, wet

snow events or wildfires could also cause greater damages than

before (high uncertainty). These disturbances can also trigger

outbreaks and epidemics of major forest pests, such as the bark

beetle. Disturbances lead to lower revenues for wood produc-

tion. The protective function of the forests against events such

as rockfalls, landslides, avalanches as well as carbon storage de-

crease (high agreement, robust evidence, see Volume 2, Chap-

ter 2; Volume 3, Chapter 2).

For decades Austria’s forests have been a significant net

sink for CO2. Since approximately 2003, the net CO

2 uptake

of the forest has declined and in some years has come to a com-

plete standstill; this is due to higher timber harvests, natural

disturbances and other factors. In addition to the GHG im-

pacts of increased felling, a comprehensive greenhouse gas bal-

ance of different types of forest management and use of forest

products requires considering the carbon storage in long-lived

wood products as well as the GHG savings of other emission-

intensive products that can be replaced by wood (e. g. fossil

fuel, steel, concrete) as well. A final assessment of the systemic

effects would require more accurate and comprehensive ana-

lyzes than those that currently exist (see Volume 3, Chapter 2).

The resilience of forests to risk factors as well as the

adaptability of forests can be increased. Examples of ad-


22

��

Content and Layout: Herbert Formayer, Vienna, 2012

aptation measures are smaller scale management structures,

mixed stands adapted to sites, and ensuring the natural for-

est regeneration in protected forests through adapted game

species management. The most sensitive areas are the spruce

stands in mixed deciduous forest sites located in lowlands, and

spruce monocultures in mountain forests serving a protective

function. The adaptation measures in the forest sector are as-

sociated with considerable lead times (high agreement, robust

evidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Biodiversity

Ecosystems that require a long time to develop, as well

as alpine habitats located above the treeline are particu-

larly impacted by climate change (high agreement, robust

evidence, see Volume 2, Chapter 3). Bogs and mature forests

require a long time to adapt to climate change and are there-

fore particularly vulnerable. Little is known about the interac-

tion with other elements of global change, such as land use

change or the introduction of invasive species. The adaptive

capacity of species and habitats has also not been sufficiently

researched.

In alpine regions, cold-adapted plants can advance to

greater heights and increase the biodiversity in these re-

gions. Cold-adapted species can survive in isolated micro-

niches in spite of the warming (high agreement, robust evi-

dence). However, increasing fragmentation of populations can

lead to local extinctions. High mountains native species that

have adapted to lower peripheral regions of the Alps are par-

ticularly affected (medium agreement, medium evidence, see


Animals are also severely affected. In the animal king-

dom, changes in the annual cycles are already documented,

such as the extension of activity periods, increased successions

of generations, earlier arrival of migratory birds, as well as

shifts in distribution ranges northward or to higher elevations

of individual species. Climate change will further advanta-

geous for some animal species, especially generalists, and fur-

Figure 4 Evolution of the climatic suitability for the cultivation of different varieties, taking into account the optimum heat levels and rainfall in Austria in the past climate (observed) and a climate scenario until the end of the 21st century (modelled). The color shades from blue to yellow to purple indicate increasing heat amounts exclusively based on the corresponding variety classification. One can clearly see the increasing suitability for red wines, towards the end of the century as there are extremely heat-loving varieties. Source: Eitzinger and Formayer (2012)

1981–2010 2036–2065

2071–2100

Summary

23

ther endanger others, especially specialists (medium evidence,

see Volume 2, Chapter 3). The warming of rivers and streams

leads to a theoretical shift in the fish habitat by up to 30 km.

For brown trout and grayling for example, the number of suit-

able habitats will decline (high agreement, robust evidence, see


Energy

Austria has a great need to catch up on improvements in

energy intensity. In the last two decades, unlike the EU aver-

age, Austria has made little progress in terms of improvements

to energy intensity (energy consumption per GDP in Euro,

see Figure 6). Since 1990, the energy intensity of the EU-28

decreased by 29 % (in the Netherlands by 23 %, Germany

by 30 % and in the UK by 39 %). In Germany and the UK,

however some of these improvements are due to the relocation

of energy-intensive production abroad. In terms of emission

intensity (GHG emissions per PJ energy) the improvements

in Austria since 1990 are a reflection of the strong develop-

ment of renewables; here, Austria along with The Netherlands,

counts among the countries with the strongest improvements.

These two indicators together determine the greenhouse gas

emission intensity of the gross domestic product (GDP),

which in Austria as well as in the EU-28 has also declined

since 1990. Greenhouse gas emissions have increased more

slowly than GDP. However, in comparison with the EU-28 it

becomes evident that Austria must make major strides to catch

up in reducing energy intensity (see Volume 3, Chapter 1).

The potential renewable energy sources in Austria are

currently not fully exploited. In Austria, the share of renew-

able energy sources in the gross final energy consumption has

increased from 23.8 % to 31 % between 2005 and 2011, pri-

marily due to the development of biogenic fuels, such as pel-

lets and biofuels. In the future, wind and photovoltaics can

make a significant contribution. The target for 2020, for a

34 % share in end energy use of renewable energies can be

easily achieved with the current growth rates. However, for the

required medium-term conversion to a greenhouse gas neutral

energy system by 2050, a coverage of the entire energy demand

with renewable energy sources is necessary. To avoid a mere

shifting of the problem, before any further future expansion

of hydroelectric power or increased use of biomass takes place,

it is important to examine the total greenhouse gas balances

as well as to take into account indirect and systemic effects.

Other environmental objectives do not lose their importance

in an effort to protect the climate (see Volume 3, Chapter 3;


Figure 5 Officially reported greenhouse gas emissions in Austria (according to the IPCC source sectors with especially defined emissions for the Transport sector). The brown line that is mainly below the zero line represents carbon sinks. The sector „Land use and land use change“ (LULUCF) represents a sink for carbon and is therefore depicted below the zero line. In recent years, this sink was significantly smaller and no longer present in some years. This was mainly a result of higher felling; and changes to the survey methods contributed to this as well. Source: Anderl et al. (2012)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Waste

Agriculture

Products

Industrial processes

Energy, general

Transport

Total (without LULUCF)

Carbon sink (LULUCF)

Mio

. t C

O2-E

quiv

alen

t


24

Transport and Industry

Of all sectors, the greenhouse gas emissions increased the

most in the last two decades in the transport sector by

+55 % (very high confidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 3). Ef-

ficiency gains made in vehicles were largely offset by heavier

and more powerful vehicles as well as higher transport per-

formance. However, the limitations of CO2 emissions per ki-

lometer driven for passenger cars and vans are beginning to

bear fruit (see Volume 3, Chapter 3). Public transportat sup-

ply changes and (tangible) price signals have had demonstrable

effects on the share of private vehicle transport in Austria.

To achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emis-

sions from passenger transport, a comprehensive package

of measures is necessary. Keys to achieving this are marked

reductions in the use of fossil-fuel energy sources, increasing

energy efficiency and changing user behaviour. A prerequisite

is improved economic- and settlement- structures in which the

distances to travel are minimized. This may strengthen the en-

vironmentally friendly forms of mobility used, such as walking

and cycling. Public transportation systems are to be expanded

and improved, and their CO2 emissions are to be minimized.

Technical measures for car transport include further, massive

improvements in efficiency for vehicles or the use of alterna-

tive power sources (Volume 3, Chapter 3) – provided that the

necessary energy is also produced with low emissions.

Freight transportation in Austria, measured in tonne-

kilometers, increased faster in the last decades than the

gross domestic product. The further development of trans-

port demand can be shaped by a number of economic and

social conditions. Emissions can be reduced by optimizing the

logistics and strengthening the CO2 efficiency of transport. A

reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per tonne-kilometer

can be achieved by alternative power and fuels, efficiency im-

provements and a shift to rail transportation (see Volume 3,

Chapter 3).

The industry sector is the largest emitter of greenhouse

gases in Austria. In 2010, the share of the manufacturing sec-

tor’s contribution to the total Austrian energy-consumption as

well as to greenhouse gas emissions was almost 30 %, in both

cases. Emission reductions in the extent of about 50 % or more

cannot be achieved within the sector through continuous,

gradual improvements and application of the relevant state

of the art of technology. Rather, the development of climate-

friendly new procedures is necessary (radical new technologies

and products with a drastic reduction of energy consumption),

or the necessary implementation of procedures for the storage

of the greenhouse gas emissions (carbon capture and storage,

Figure 6 Development of GHG intensity of GDP and the subdevelopments of energy intensity (energy consumption per GDP in Euro) and emission intensity of energy (greenhouse gas emissions per PJ of energy) over time for Austria and for the EU-28 (upper panel). The develop-ment of greenhouse gas emission intensity in conjunction with rising GDP (lower panel) leads to rising greenhouse gas emissions for Austria �� !��"�#�� $�# �� %�&�

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Inde

x 19

90=1

00

GHG EmissionsAustriaImpact of Energy Intensity (Energy / GDP)and Emissions Intensity (Emissions / Energy)

Energy-Intensity

Emissions Intensity

TotalIntensity

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Inde

x 19

90=1

00

Energy-Intensity

Emissions Intensity

GDP

Emissions

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201240

60

80

100

120

Inde

x 19

90=1

00

GDP

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201240

60

80

100

120

Inde

x 19

90=1

00 Emissions

GHG EmissionsEU-28Impact of Energy Intensity (Energy / GDP)and Emissions Intensity (Emissions / Energy)

TotalIntensity

TotalIntensity

TotalIntensity

GHG EmissionsAustriaImpact of Total Intensity (Emissions / GDP)and GDP

GHG EmissionsEU-28Impact of Total Intensity (Emissions / GDP)and GDP

Summary

25

for example as in the EU scenarios for Energy Roadmap 2050)

(very likely, see Volume 3, Chapter 5).

Tourism

Winter tourism will come under pressure due to the steady

rise in temperature. Compared to destinations where natural

snow remains plentiful, many Austrian ski areas are threatened

by the increasing costs of snowmaking (very likely, see Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 4).

Future adaptation possibilities with artificial snow-

making are limited. Although currently 67 % of the slope

surfaces are equipped with snowmaking machines, the use of

these is limited by the rising temperatures and the (limited)

availability of water (likely, see Volume 3, Chapter 4). The

promotion of the development of artificial snow by the public

sector could therefore lead to maladaptation and counterpro-

ductive lock-in effects.

Tourism could benefit in Austria due to the future very

high temperatures expected in summer, in the Mediterra-

Figure 7 A comparison of characteristic CO2 emissions per passenger-kilometer and ton-kilometer for different transport modes that use fossil energy and thermal electricity generation in case of electric railways. Source: IPCC (2014)

LDV gasoline, diesel, hybrid

LDV taxi gasoline, diesel, hybrid

Coach, bus, rapid transit

2- and 3-wheel motorbike

HDV large

LDV commercial (van)

HDV small

HDV medium

Passenger rail, metro, tram

Diesel freight train

Electric freight train

Passenger ferry

Barge

Roll-on, roll-off ferry

Container ship – coastal

Container ship – ozean

Bulk carrier – ozean

Bulk tanker – ozean

Passenger aircraftShort-haul bellyhold in

passengerLangstreckenflug im

PersonenflugzeugShort-haul cargo

aircraftLong-haul cargo

aircraft

Road

Rail

Waterborne

Air

Passenger [g / p-km]

Freight [g / t-km]

* The ranges only give an indication of direct vehicle fuel emissions. They exclude indirect emissions arising from vehicle manufacture, infrastructure, etc. included in life-cycle analyses except from electricity used for rail

Direct* CO2 Emissions per Distance [gCO2 / km] Direct* CO2 Emissions per Distance [gCO2 / km]

Copyright: IPCC (2014) In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 8.6. [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.


26

nean (very likely). However, even with equally good turnout

and capacity utilization in the summer, the value added lost in

winter cannot be regained with an equal gain in visitor num-

bers in summer (see Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Losses in tourism in rural areas have high regional eco-

nomic follow-up costs, since the loss of jobs often cannot

be compensated by other industries. In peripheral rural

areas, which already face major challenges due to the demo-

graphic change and the increasing wave of urbanization, this

can lead to further resettlement (see Volume 3, Chapter 1; Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 4).

Urban tourism may experience set-backs in midsummer

due to hot days and tropical nights (very likely). Displace-

ments of the stream of tourists in different seasons and regions

are possible and currently already observable (see Volume 3,

Chapter 4).

Successful pioneers in sustainable tourism are showing

ways to reduce greenhouse gases in this sector. In Austria

there are flagship projects at all levels – individuals, munici-

palities and regions – and in different areas, such as hotels,

mobility, and lucrative offers for tourists. Due to the long-term

investment in infrastructure for tourism, lock-in effects are

particularly vulnerable (see Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Infrastructure

Energy use for heating and cooling buildings and their

GHG emissions can be significantly reduced (high agree-

ment, see Volume 3, Chapter 5). A part of this potential can be

realized in a cost-effective manner. To further reduce the ener-

gy demand of existing buildings, high-quality thermal renova-

tion is necessary. For energy supply, mainly alternative energy

sources, such as solar thermal or photovoltaic are to be used

for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Heat pumps

can only be used in the context of an integrated approach

which ensures low CO2 power generation, thereby contribut-

ing to climate protection. Biomass will also be important in

the medium term. District heating and cooling will become

less important in the long term due to reduced demand. A

significant contribution to future greenhouse gas neutrality in

buildings can also be provided by building construction stan-

dards, which the (almost) zero-energy and plus-energy houses

promote. These are foreseen to occur across the EU after 2020.

Given the large number of innovative pilot projects, Austria

could assume a leadership role in this area also before. Targeted

construction standards and renovation measures could signifi-

cantly reduce the future cooling loads. Specific zonal planning

and building regulations can ensure denser designs with higher

energy efficiency, especially also beyond the inner urban settle-

ment areas (see Volume 3, Chapter 5).

Forward planning of infrastructure with a long service

life under changing conditions can avoid poor invest-

ments. Against the background of continuously changing

post-fossil energy supply conditions, infrastructure projects

in urban locations, in transport and energy supplies should

be reviewed to ensure their emission-reducing impacts as

well as their resilience to climate change. The structure of

urban developments can be designed so that transport and

energy infrastructures are coordinated and built (and used)

efficiently with low resource consumptions (see Volume 3,

Chapter 5).

A decentralized energy supply system with renewable

energy requires new infrastructure. In addition to novel re-

newables with stand-alone solutions (e. g. off-grid photovolta-

ics) there are also new options for integrating these onto the

network. Local distribution networks for locally produced bio-

gas as well as networks for exploiting local, mostly industrial,

waste heat (see Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chapter 3) re-

quire special structures and control. „Smart Grids“ and „Smart

Meters“ enable locally produced energy (which is fed into the

grid, e. g. from co- and poly-generation or private photovol-

taic systems) to contribute to improved energy efficiency and

are therefore discussed as elements of a future energy system

(see Volume 3, Chapter 5). However, there are concerns of

ensuring network security as well as data protection and pri-

vacy protection; these issues are not yet sufficiently defined or

regulated by law.

Extreme events can increasingly impair energy and

transport infrastructures. Longer duration and more intense

heat waves are problematic (very likely), more intense rainfall

and resulting landslides and floods (probably), storms (pos-

sible) and increased wet-snow loads (possible, see Volume

1, Chapter 3; Volume 1, Chapter 4; Volume 1, Chapter 5;

Volume 2, Chapter 4) pose potential risks for infrastructure

related to settlement, transportation, energy and communica-

tions. If an increase in climate damages and costs are to be

avoided, the construction and expansion of urban areas and

infrastructure in areas (regions) that are already affected by

natural hazards should be avoided. Moreover, when designat-

ing hazard zones, the future development in the context of

climate change should be taken as a precautionary measure.

Existing facilities can provide increased protection through a

range of adaptation measures, such as the creation of increased

retention areas against flooding.

The diverse impacts of climate change on water resourc-

es require extensive and integrative adaptation measures.

Summary

27

Both high- and low-water events in Austrian rivers can nega-

tively impact several sectors, from the shipping industry, the

provision of industrial and cooling water, to the drinking water

supply. The drinking water supply can contribute to adapta-

tion measures through the networking of smaller supply units

as well as the creation of a reserve capacity for source water

(high agreement, robust evidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Adaptation measures to climate change can have positive

ramifications in other areas. The objectives of flood protec-

tion and biodiversity conservation can be combined through

the protection and expansion of retention areas, such as flood-

plains (high agreement, much evidence). The increase in the

proportion of soil organic matter leads to an increase in the

soil water storage capacity (high agreement, robust evidence,

see Volume 2, Chapter 6) and thus contributes to both flood

protection and carbon sequestration, and therefore to climate

protection (see Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Health and Society

Climate change may cause directly- or indirectly- related

problems for human health. Heat waves can lead to cardio-

vascular problems, especially in older people, but also in in-

fants or the chronically ill. There exists a regional-dependent

temperature at which the death rate is determined to be the

lowest; beyond this temperature the mortality increases by

1–6 % for every 1 °C increase in temperature (very likely, high

confidence, see Volume 2, Chapter 6; Volume 3, Chapter 4).

In particular, older people and young children have shown a

significant increase in the risk of death above this optimum

temperature. Injuries and illnesses that are associated with ex-

treme events (e. g. floods and landslides) and allergies triggered

by plants that were previously only indigenous to Austria,

such as ragweed, also add to the impacts of climate change

on health.

The indirect impacts of climate change on human health

remains a major challenge for the health system. In par-

ticular, pathogens that are transferred by blood-sucking in-

sects (and ticks) play an important role, as not only the agents

themselves, but also the vectors‘ (insects and ticks) activity and

distribution are dependent on climatic conditions. Newly in-

troduced pathogens (viruses, bacteria and parasites, but also

allergenic plants and fungi such as, e. g. ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) and the oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea)) and new vectors (e. g., „tiger mosquito“, Stego-myia albopicta) can establish themselves, or existing patho-

gens can spread regionally (or even disappear). Such imported

cases are virtually unpredictable and the opportunities to take

counter-measures are low (likely, medium confidence, see Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 6).

Health-related adaptations affect a myriad of changes to

individual behavior of either a majority of the population or

by members of certain risk groups (likely, medium agreement,

see Volume 3, Chapter 4). Several measures of adaptation and

mitigation that are not primarily aimed at improving human

health may have significant indirect health-related benefits,

such as switching from a car to a bike (likely, medium agree-

ment, see Volume 3, Chapter 4).

The health sector is both an agent and a victim of cli-

mate change. The infrastructure related to the health sector

requires both mitigation and adaptation measures. Effective

mitigation measures could include encouraging the mobility

of employees and patients as well as in the procurement of

used and recycled products (very likely, high agreement, see

Volume 3, Chapter 4). For specific adaptation to longer-term

changes there is a lack of medical and climate research, how-

ever some measures can be taken now – such as in preparing

for heat waves.

Vulnerable groups generally are more highly exposed to

the impacts of climate change. Usually the confluence of sev-

eral factors (low income, low education level, low social capi-

tal, precarious working and living conditions, unemployment,

limited possibilities to take action) make the less privileged

population groups more vulnerable to climate change impacts.

The various social groups are affected differently by a changing

climate, thus the options to adapt are also dissimilar and are

also influenced by differing climate policy measures (such as

higher taxes and fees on energy) (likely, high agreement, see

Volume 2, Chapter 6)

Climate change adaptation and mitigation lead to in-

creased competition for resource space. This mainly affects

natural and agricultural land uses. Areas for implementing

renewable energy sources, or retention areas and levees to re-

duce flood risks are often privileged at the expense of agricul-

tural land. Increasing threats of natural hazards to residential

areas may lead to more resettlements in the long term (high

confidence, see Volume 2, Chapter 2; Volume 2, Chapter 5).

In order to facilitate the adaptation of endangered species to

climate change by allowing them to migrate to more suitable

locations and in order to better preserve biodiversity, conser-

vation areas must be drawn up and networked with corridors

(high confidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 2). There is no re-

gional planning strategy for Austria that can provide necessary

guidelines for relevant decisions (see Volume 3, Chapter 6).


28

Transformation

Although in all sectors significant emission reduction po-

tentials exist, the expected Austrian contribution towards

achieving the global 2 °C target cannot be achieved with

sector-based, mostly technology-oriented, measures. Meet-

ing the 2 °C target requires more than incrementally improved

production technologies, greener consumer goods and a policy

that (marginal) increases efficiency to be implemented in Aus-

tria. A transformation is required concerning the interaction of

the economy, society and the environment, which is supported

by behavioral changes of individuals, however these changes

also have to originate from the individuals. If the risk of un-

wanted, irreversible change should not increase, the transfor-

mation needs to be introduced and implemented rapidly (see


A transformation of Austria into a low-carbon society

requires partially radical structural and technical renova-

tions, social and technological innovation and participa-

tory planning processes (medium agreement, medium evi-

dence, see Volume 3, Chapter 6). This implies experimentation

and experiential learning, the willingness to take risks and to

accept that some innovations will fail. Renewal from the root

will be necessary, also with regards to the goods and services

that are produced by the Austrian economy, and large-scale

investment programs. In the assessment of new technologies

and social developments an orientation along a variety of crite-

ria is required (multi-criteria approach) as well, an integrative

socio-ecologically oriented decision-making is needed instead

of short-term, narrowly defined cost-benefit calculations. To

be of best effectiveness, national action should be agreed upon

internationally, both with the surrounding nations as well as

with the global community, and particularly in partnership

with developing countries (see Volume 3, Chapter 6).

In Austria, a socio-ecological transformation conducive

to changes in people’s belief-systems can be noticed. In-

dividual pioneers of change are already implementing these

ideas with climate-friendly action and business models (e. g.

energy service companies in real estate, climate-friendly mo-

bility, or local supply) and transforming municipalities and

regions (high agreement, robust evidence). At the political

level, climate-friendly transformation approaches can also be

identified. If Austria wants to contribute to the achievement of

the global 2 °C target and help shape a future climate-friendly

development at a European level and internationally, such ini-

tiatives need to be reinforced and supported by accompany-

ing policy measures that create a reliable regulatory landscape

(high agreement, medium evidence, see Volume 3, Chapter 6).

Policy initiatives in climate mitigation and adaptation

are necessary at all levels in Austria if the above objectives

are to be achieved: at the federal level, at that of provinces

and that of local communities. Within the federal Austrian

structure the competences are split, such that only a common

and mutually adjusted approach across those levels can en-

sure highest effectiveness and achievement of objectives (high

agreement; strong evidence). For an effective implementation

of the – for an achievement necessarily – substantial transfor-

mation a package drawing from the broad spectrum of instru-

ments appears to be the only appropriate one (high agreement,

medium evidence).

Figure Credits

Figure 1 Issued for the AAR14 adapted from: IPCC, 2013: In: Cli-mate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the In-tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor,S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (Eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.; IPCC, 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, UK.; GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustai-nable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Figure 2 Issued for the AAR14 adapted from: Auer, I., Böhm, R., Jurkovic, A., Lipa, W., Orlik, A., Potzmann, R., Schöner, W., Un-gersböck, M., Matulla, C., Briffa, K., Jones, P., Efthymiadis, D., Brunetti, M., Nanni, T., Maugeri, M., Mercalli, L., Mestre, O., Moisselin, J.-M., Begert, M., Müller-Westermeier, G., Kveton, V., Bochnicek, O., Stastny, P., Lapin, M., Szalai, S., Szentimrey, T., Cegnar, T., Dolinar, M., Gajic-Capka, M., Zaninovic, K., Majsto-rovic, Z., Nieplova, E., 2007. HISTALP – historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region. International Journal of Climatology 27, 17–46. doi:10.1002/joc.1377; ENSEMBLES project: Funded by the European Commission‘s 6th Framework Programme through contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539; reclip:century: Funded by the Austri-an Climate Research Program (ACRP), Project number A760437

Figure 3 Muñoz, P., Steininger, K.W., 2010: Austria’s CO2 responsi-

bility and the carbon content of its international trade. Ecological Economics 69, 2003–2019. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.05.017

Figure 4 Issued for the AAR14. Source: ZAMGFigure 5 Anderl M., Freudenschuß A., Friedrich A., et al., 2012:

Austria‘s national inventory report 2012. Submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and under the Kyoto Protocol. REP-0381, Wien. ISBN: 978-3-99004-184-0

Figure 6 Schleicher, St., 2014: Tracing the decline of EU GHG emissions. Impacts of structural changes of the energy system and economic activity. Policy Brief. Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Graz. Basierend auf Daten des statistischen Amtes der Europäischen Union (Eurostat)

Summary

29

Figure 7 ADEME, 2007; US DoT, 2010; Der Boer et al., 2011; NTM, 2012; WBCSD, 2012, In Sims R., R. Schaeffer, F. Creut-zig, X. Cruz-Núñez, M. D’Agosto, D. Dimitriu, M.J. Figueroa Meza, L. Fulton, S. Kobayashi, O. Lah, A. McKinnon, P. New-man, M. Ouyang, J.J. Schauer, D. Sperling, and G. Tiwari, 2014: Transport. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assess-

ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwi-ckel and J.C. Minx (Eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cam-bridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14) Synthesis


Synthesis

Coordinating Lead Authors of the SynthesisHelga Kromp-KolbNebojsa NakicenovicRupert SeidlKarl Steininger

Lead Authors of the SynthesisBodo Ahrens, Ingeborg Auer, Andreas Baumgarten, Birgit Bednar-Friedl, Josef Eitzinger, Ulrich Foelsche, Herbert Formayer, Clemens Geitner, Thomas Glade, Andreas Gobiet, Georg Grabherr, Reinhard Haas, Helmut Haberl, Leopold Haimberger, Regina Hitzenberger, Martin König, Angela Köppl, Manfred Lexer, Wolfgang Loibl, Romain Molitor, Hanns Moshammer, Hans-Peter Nachtnebel, Franz Prettenthaler, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Klaus Radunsky, Jür-gen Schneider, Hans Schnitzer, Wolfgang Schöner, Niels Schulz, Petra Seibert, Sigrid Stagl, Robert Steiger, Johann Stötter, Wolfgang Streicher, Wilfried Winiwarter

CitationKromp-Kolb, H., N. Nakicenovic, R. Seidl, K. Steininger, B. Ahrens, I. Auer, A. Baumgarten, B. Bednar-Friedl, J. Eitzinger, U. Foelsche, H. Formayer, C. Geitner, T. Glade, A. Gobiet, G. Grabherr, R. Haas, H. Haberl, L. Haim-berger, R. Hitzenberger, M. König, A. Köppl, M. Lexer, W. Loibl, R. Molitor, H. Moshammer, H-P. Nachtnebel, F. Prettenthaler, W. Rabitsch, K. Radunsky, L. Schneider, H. Schnitzer, W. Schöner, N. Schulz, P. Seibert, S. Stagl, R. Steiger, H. Stötter, W. Streicher, W. Winiwarter (2014): Synthesis. In: Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14), Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Austrian Academy of Sciences Press, Vienna, Austria.

Table of content

S.0 Introduction 34

S.1 Climate Change in Austria: Drivers and Manifestations 35

S.1.1 The global climate system and causes of cli-mate change 35

S.1.2 Emissions, Sinks, and Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols 39

S.1.3 Past Climate Change 43S.1.4 Future Climate Change 47S.1.5 Extreme events 48S.1.6 Thinking Ahead: Surprises, Abrupt Changes

and Tipping Points in the Climate System 52

S.2 Impacts on the Environment and Society 52S.2.1 Introduction 52S.2.2 Impacts on the Hydrological Cycle 54S.2.3 Impacts on Topography and Soil 57S.2.4 Impacts on the Living Environment 60S.2.5 Impacts on Humans 62

S.3 Climate Change in Austria: Mitigation and Adaptation 65

S.3.1 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation 65S.3.2 Agriculture and Forestry, Hydrology, Ecosys-

tems and Biodiversity 68S.3.3 Energy 72S.3.4 Transport 75S.3.5 Health 76S.3.6 Tourism 78S.3.7 Production 80S.3.8 Buildings 82S.3.9 Transformative Pathways 84

S.4 Figure Credits Synthesis 88


34

S.0 Introduction

S.0.1 Motivation

The Austrian Assessment Report 2014 (AAR14) was con-

ceived as a national counterpart to the periodically compiled

assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC). Whereas the IPCC reports focus on the

global and regional levels, the AAR14 focuses on the situation

in Austria. AAR14, which follows, was compiled by Austrian

scientists working in the field of climate change over a three-

year period and was modelled on the IPCC assessment report

process. In this extensive publication, more than 200 scientists

depict the state of knowledge on climate change in Austria:

the impacts, mitigation, and adaptation strategies, as well as

the associated political, economic, and social issues. AAR14

presents a coherent and consistent report i) on historically

observed climate change and its impacts on the environment

and society; and ii) on potential future trends and options in

the areas of adaptation and mitigation in Austria In so do-

ing, it takes into account country-specific natural, societal, and

economic characteristics. It provides much needed knowledge

about regional manifestations of global climate change. The

report also indicates gaps in knowledge and understanding.

Like the IPCC reports, AAR14 is based on contributions that

have already been published and aims to be policy-relevant

without being policy-prescriptive.

The Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP) of the

Klima- und Energiefonds (Climate and Energy Fund) has fi-

nanced the coordinating activities and material costs of this

study. The extensive and substantial body of work has been

carried out gratuitously by the researchers, with strong support

of their respective institutions.

This synthesis is divided into three sections corresponding

to the three volumes of the full report. It provides the most

significant information from the full report based on the con-

tributions of the coordinating lead-authors of the individual

chapters of the AAR14. The sections are as follows:

Volume 1. Climate change in Austria: Drivers and

Manifestations (coordinating lead-author: Helga Kromp-

Kolb).

Volume 1 describes the scientific basis of climate change, in

particular its historical and future manifestations in Austria.

Volume 2. Climate change in Austria: Environmental

and Societal Implications (coordinating lead-author: Ru-

pert Seidl)

Volume 2 describes the impacts of climate change on the

hydro-, bio, pedo- and lithospheres and on humans, the econ-

omy, and society (anthroposphere).

Volume 3. Climate change in Austria: Mitigation and

Adaptation (coordinating lead-authors: Nebojsa Naki-

cenovic and Karl Steininger)

Volume 3 introduces options to mitigate greenhouse gas

(GHG) emissions and to adapt to climate change. Possible

transformation paths toward a more climate-friendly society

and economy are presented.

References to individual chapters within this synthesis are

made by reference to the volume and chapter of the report

itself (e. g., Volume 1, Chapter 3)1. References to the original

literature can be found in the main report. Cited “grey litera-

ture” is available from the literature database of the Climate

Change Centre Austria (CCCA) (www.ccca.ac.at).

S.0.2 Handling Uncertainties; Safety and Pre-cautionary Principle

All insights, even scientific insights, are subject to uncertainty.

In the public debate on climate change, uncertainty has often

been used to justify postponing decisions and actions. From a

scientific point of view, however, uncertainty must be properly

dealt with. This report shows that it is possible to take deci-

sions on the basis of existing knowledge, despite uncertainty.

Uncertainty regarding the scientific reliability of the theory

of anthropogenic climate change (in the following: climate

change theory) is nurtured by media and popular scientific

books and films, which offer a broad spectrum of alterna-

tive interpretations. Epistemologically speaking, strict proof

of climate change theory is impossible (Volume 1, Chapter

5), quite apart from the fact that a prediction of the future is

impossible. However, the theory of human-induced climate

change is well supported by model experiments and empiri-

cal studies and, furthermore, has been subject to scientific

scrutiny for over 40 years. As a result, the mainstream climate

change theory is superior to all other theories and hypotheses

that have thus far been presented. As long as no new evidence

or insights emerge that challenge the core of climate change

theory, it is appropriate to base societal, political and economic

decisions upon it.

1 The 1092 page report is available only in German, with English headings and captions of figures and tables.

Synthesis

35

Within climate change theory, the reliability of individual

statements varies. For example, most statements regarding fu-

ture temperature changes are more robust than statements re-

garding future levels of precipitation. Uncertainty can arise for

a variety of reasons, such as lack of data, lack of understanding

of processes, or the lack of a generally accepted explanation for

observations or model results.

The IPCC has developed a specific terminology to express

uncertainties that uses three different approaches. The choice

of approach depends on the nature of the available data and

on the authors’ assessment of the accuracy and completeness

of the current scientific understanding. For a qualitative esti-

mation, the uncertainty is described using a two-dimensional

scale where a relative assessment is given, on the one hand,

for the quantity and the quality of evidence (i. e., information

from theory, observations, or models indicating whether an as-

sumption or assertion holds true or is valid) and, on the other

hand, to the degree of agreement in the literature. This ap-

proach uses a series of self-explanatory terms such as high / me-

dium / low evidence and strong / medium / low agreement. The

joint assessment of both these dimensions is described by a

confidence level, using five qualifiers: “very high,” “high,” “me-

dium,” “low,” and “very low.” For a quantitative assessment,

expert judgment of the correctness of the underlying data,

models, or analyses, is used to assess the uncertainty of the

results, using eight degrees of probability from “virtually cer-

tain” to “more unlikely than likely.” The probability is based on

the assessment of the likelihood of a well-defined result having

occurred or being expected to occur in the future. The de-

grees of probability can be derived from quantitative analyses

or from expert opinion. For more detailed information, please

refer to the introductory chapter in AAR14 (in German) or

the relevant IPCC documents (in English). In the following,

if the description of uncertainty relates to a whole paragraph,

it will be found at the end of that paragraph. Otherwise, the

uncertainty assessment is given after the statement in question.

As the report deals with both past and future developments,

uncertainty allows for the fact that the future will be influenced

by human activity. In climate and climate impact research, this

is typically dealt with by applying different scenarios in which

various potential future developments are presented, without

actually developing prognoses.

The selection of scenarios is not limited to the most likely

developments, as climate change is just as much an ethical is-

sue as an academic one. From an ethical point of view, not

at all impacts of climate change are equally important (Vol-

ume 1, Chapter 5). From an ethical perspective, it is especially

important to study impacts that risk violating basic human

rights, such as the right to life, health, and autonomy. It is gen-

erally accepted that future generations have rights that must be

respected by people alive today. This principle – in the form

of “sustainable development” – has been on the international

agenda since the “Brundtland Report” (1987) and can thus

be considered as a fundamental and internationally recognized

ethical consensus. As a result, climate policy that unnecessarily

puts people’s fundamental rights at risk is impermissible.

Principles of environmental ethics, which are integrated in

differing ways into the body of law of many countries, provide

an orientation: the security principle, the precautionary prin-

ciple, and the polluter-pays principle. In cases of uncertainty,

the security principle demands that upper limits (worst-case

scenarios) of possible negative environmental impacts are as-

sumed. Implementing climate protection measures does not

require scientific proof of negative climate change impacts be-

yond doubt; a plausible and justified suspicion is sufficient.

Consequently, doubts about the anthropogenic nature of

climate change are no justification for business as usual. For

climate science this means that for society to take informed

decisions, the full bandwidth of possible impacts must be de-

picted, including potential best-case and worst-case scenarios,

even if they are unlikely.

S.0.3 Acknowledgments

Over 250 people worked on AAR14. They are acknowledged

in the full report, and they delivered the basis for this syn-

thesis. At this juncture it is only possible to express deepest

thanks collectively to all authors, lead authors, coordinating

lead-authors, co-chairs, reviewers, review editors, members of

the quality management and scientific advisory boards, the

project manager, the secretariat, the lectors, and those who did

the page layout. Thanks also go to all institutions that made

this report possible, either through financial or in-kind contri-

butions, and to the Climate and Energy Fund and the FWF

Austrian Science Fund for their financial support.

S.1 Climate Change in Austria: Drivers and Manifestations

S.1.1 The global climate system and causes of climate change

The progress of industrialization has caused significant observ-

able changes to the climate worldwide. For example, in the pe-

riod since 1880 the global average surface temperature has in-


36

Figure S.1.1. Graphical overview over climate subsystems (boxes, bold font), their exchanges (thin arrows, normal font) and some aspects which change (thick arrows). The most relevant trace gases and aerosols are mentioned. Source: Houghton et al. (2001)

Copyright: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 1.1. Cambridge University Press.

creased by almost 1 °C. An understanding of the causes of these

changes is a prerequisite for estimating possible future changes.

The climate system can be considered as an externally influ-

enced, dynamic system, the state of which “changes” at time

scales of years to geological eras. The climate is influenced by

subsystems such as the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and bio-

sphere. These spheres store and exchange energy, water, car-

bon, and trace elements (Figure S.1.1). Such processes can fre-

quently be represented as cycles. The sun delivers the energy to

sustain all the (climate) processes on earth. Solar energy enters

the climate system as solar radiation. A large part of the solar

radiation, which is absorbed by the earth’s surface, is emitted

back into the atmosphere as terrestrial radiation, where it is

partly absorbed and then radiated back again to earth, mani-

festing itself as the greenhouse effect in the climate system. The

terrestrial radiation that is not absorbed by the atmosphere is

radiated back into space. A relatively small amount of the en-

ergy absorbed by the earth is taken up by the biosphere, for ex-

ample, through photosynthesis. When the climate system is in

global balance, solar (incoming) radiation (wavelength 0,3–3

μm) and terrestrial (outgoing) radiation (3–100 μm) balance

each other out over several years.

If terrestrial radiation decreases, for example, through an

increase in carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N

2O), meth-

ane (CH4), ozone (O

3), chlorofluorocarbons, sulphur hexaflu-

oride (SF6), or water vapor (H

2O), the net energy intake of the

climate system can increase.

Beside the greenhouse effect, there are three major factors

that influence the energy exchange between the earth and out-

er space and thereby influence radiative forcing and the aver-

age surface temperature of the planet:

The radiant flux from the sun reaching the earth. This is

subject to natural fluctuations; however, the latter have

not amounted to more than 0.5 W / m2 in the past 400

years, which is quite minimal when compared to the aver-

age value of 1 361 W / m2.

Changes in the parameters of the earth’s orbit, at scales of

several hundred to several hundred thousand years (Mila-

nkovic theory).

Atmosphere

Atmosphere-IceInteraction

Land-AtmosphereInteraction

Precipitation-Evaporation

Atmosphere-BiosphereInteraction

HeatExchange

Changes inSolar Inputs

Soil-BiosphereInteraction

Biosphere

Land Surface

Sea Ice

Changes in the Ocean:

Ice-Ocean Coupling

Ocean

WindStress

Human Influences

Terrestrial

Volcanic Activity

Radiation

Hydrosphere:Rivers & Lakes

Cryosphere:Sea Ice, Ice Sheets, Glaciers

Clouds

Changes in theHydrological Cycle

Hydrosphere:Ocean

text

Changes in the Atmosphere:Composition, Circulation

Circulation, Sea Level, BiogeochemistryChanges in/on the Land Surface:

Orography, Land Use, Vegetation, Ecosystems

N2, O2, Ar,H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, etc.Aerosols

Ice SheetGlacier

Synthesis

37

The planetary albedo, the share of incoming solar ra-

diation that is reflected by the earth and its atmosphere

without absorption. The albedo is determined by clouds,

amount and distribution of snow and ice, aerosol particles

in the atmosphere, and the type of land cover and land

use. Changes in the albedo of the magnitude of merely

1 % have a significant influence on net radiation.

The water budget, like the energy budget, also plays a cen-

tral role. Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas

(GHG); however, anthropogenic emissions of water vapor are

insignificant when compared to natural evaporation. With

rising temperatures, the content of water vapor in the atmo-

sphere increases, which, because of increased long-wave atmo-

spheric radiation, leads to a positive feedback and increases the

warming caused by longer-lived GHGs. Water vapor is often

not included in GHG budgets due to its short life time in

the troposphere and the comparatively small amount of direct

anthropogenic emissions.

To explain the observed increase in GHGs in the atmo-

sphere, it is necessary to consider biogeochemical cycles, in

particular the carbon budget, which includes processes such as

photosynthesis, respiration, storage and respiration in oceans,

and anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic sources are caus-

ing an increase in atmospheric CO2 content; this is leading

to an increase in natural sink activity, in particular enhanced

photosynthesis (increased biomass production) and stronger

uptake of CO2 in the oceans (ocean acidification).

Although the specific influences of human beings on the

climate system are very complex, the majority of observed

changes in climate since 1880 can be explained by just a few

activities:

1. The combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) and the related

increase in GHG emissions.

2. Land use change (e. g., deforestation, afforestation, soil seal-

ing) and agriculture (e. g., deforestation, sealing, nitrogen

fertilizer, humus decomposition, methane emissions from

rice fields and the stomachs of ruminants).

3. Process-related emissions from industry (e. g., production

of cement and steel).

The most important source of GHGs in the last 50 years has

been the combustion of fossil fuels, which has tripled during

this time. Although natural CO2 sinks have increased along

with the increase in the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere,

they cannot offset rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The

most recent figures estimate current (2011) anthropogenic

CO2 emissions at 10.4 ±1.1 Gt C / year, of which 9.5 ±0.5

Gt C / year can be attributed to the combustion of fossil fuels

and cement production and 0.9 ±0.6 Gt C / year to land use

change. Of the anthropogenic emissions, 2.5 ±0.5 Gt C / year

are absorbed by the oceans and 2.6 ±0.8 Gt C / year by the ter-

restrial biosphere, whereas 4.3 ±0.1 Gt C / year remain in the

atmosphere. Accordingly, the CO2 content in the atmosphere

has increased by approximately 30 % since 1959.

This increase, which is easily measurable, is one of the most

important foundations of the insight that anthropogenic CO2

emissions lead to an increase in CO2 concentration. The cu-

mulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions since 1870 are ap-

Copyright: Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set.; Morice C.P. et al.; J. Geophys. Res. 117/D8. © 2012 American Geophysical Union All Rights Reserved.

Figure S.1.2. Time-series of global surface temperature anomalies (reference period 1961 to 1990) with uncertainty bounds, calculated by four international research groups. Trends on the right are calculated for 1900 to 2010 and 1980 to 2010, and are statistically highly signifi-cant. Source: Morice et al. (2012)

Tem

pera

ture

ana

mol

yw

.r.t.

1961

–199

0 (°

C)

Tren

d (°

C/d

ecad

e)


38

proximately 1 479 Gt CO2 (400 Gt C). The carbon content

of the atmosphere has risen by 840 Gt CO2 (or by 230 Gt C,

which is an increase of 39 % over pre-industrial levels). The

concentration of the second most important GHG, methane,

has doubled since 1870. The fifth IPCC report, published in

2013, estimates the contribution of all anthropogenic GHGs

to radiative forcing at 1.9 W / m2 ±1 W / m2.

Although current climate change is most apparent through

the increase in mean global temperature, it is also revealed

through a number of other parameters such as distribution

of precipitation and shifting of climate zones. In essence, a

pole-ward shifting of climate zones and an enlargement of arid

environments can be observed. Changes in the cryosphere (all

forms of snow and ice) are also dramatic. These changes relate

not only to glacial melting in the Alps and other mountains

but also to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the re-

duction of Arctic sea ice in summer. The thermal expansion of

oceans and the melting of land-based glaciers and ice sheets are

leading to a rise in sea level, increasingly endangering coastal

regions: between 1880 and 2009 the sea level rose by a global

average of around 20 cm.

Past climates, before the instrumental period, can be recon-

structed using proxy data, for example, fossils or deposits from

past geological epochs. Past temperatures during these peri-

ods can be particularly inferred from isotope ratios in deep sea

sediments and from ice cores. For the Holocene, the time fol-

lowing the last cold period, a number of other proxy data are

available, such as tree rings, pollen, and corals, to name a few.

The climate of the current geological period of the past 2.5

million years, the Quaternary (Pleistocene and Holocene) has

been an interplay of long glacials, with mean global tempera-

tures as much as 6 °C below current values, and short inter-

glacials (warm periods) with temperatures similar to today,

driven by variations in earth orbit parameters (shape of the

orbit, tilt, and orientation of the rotation axis of the earth).

Within this period we currently live in a warm period. The

Holocene, which started about 11 700 years ago, was char-

acterized by a relatively stable climate. During the last 2 000

years there have been warmer periods worth mentioning (in

around 1000 A.D.) and colder periods (in the 17th century

and around 1850).

Global temperatures have been rising since around 1850,

and both proxy and instrumental data show these increases

tending to accelerate during the past decades. The rate of

warming in the last decades of the 20th century was particularly

dramatic compared to climate variations during the Holocene.

The rapid increase of approximately 1 °C observed in the last

100 years (see Figure S.1.2) is not extreme from a geological

perspective; it is, however, the first time that an increase has

been caused by anthropogenic activity, and it is the beginning

of anticipated, considerably stronger warming.

The anthropogenic influence on the current climate can be

determined on the basis of available observations, the mod-

elled reconstruction of the past (re-analyses), elaborate sta-

tistical methods (so-called fingerprint methods), and climate

simulations. The direct conclusion from this evidence is that

future climatic changes will be significantly influenced by

global socioeconomic developments. In this context many dif-

ferent trajectories are conceivable; these depend on parameters

that are hard to forecast, such as population and economic

growth, the use and development of emission mitigation tech-

nologies, availability of resources, and political decisions. In

other words, future climatic developments will also depend on

human decisions.

For the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), four

so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

were developed, which provide the basis for climate projec-

tions. The individual pathways all include different trends in

GHG emissions that lead to radiative forcing values between

2.6 (RCP 2.6) and 8.5 W / m2 (RCP 8.5) by 2100 (Volume 1,

Chapter 1), which in turn all lead to a stabilization of radiative

forcing at different levels and within varying time frames.

Using earth system simulation models (advanced global

climate models), parameters such as temperature, pressure,

and precipitation changes are calculated on the basis of RCP

emission pathways. Mean global surface temperature provides

a general description of the anthropogenic warming of the

earth’s atmosphere. It is both a symbol and a valuable indica-

tor for overall climate change. Figure S.1.3 demonstrates that

the internationally agreed political goal of limiting warming

to a maximum of 2 °C relative to preindustrial temperature

levels can be reached only in the most ambitious concentration

pathway (RCP 2.6) In RCP 2.6 global radiative forcing levels

reach a maximum before 2050, in RCP 4.5 are stabilized after

around 2080, and in RCP 6.0 after around 2150. However,

temperature still increases after these points in time, due to the

inertia of the climate system and in particular of the oceans.

Temperature differences between the pathways only become

significant around the middle of the 21st century and after.

As many regional climate studies and almost all climate im-

pact studies are still based on the IPCC SRES-scenarios used

prior to the IPCC AR5, reference will be made to these repeat-

edly in the following pages. If the increases in temperature by

the end of the century are compared, then the extreme RCP

8.5 approximately equates to the SRES A1F1 scenario, RCP

6.0 to SRES B2, and RCP 4.5 to SRES B1. The often used

Synthesis

39

Figure S.1.3. Observed and simulated global average temperatures near the surface for the period 1950–2100, shown as deviations from the mean temperature of 1980–1999, for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Source: Rogelj et al. (2012)

SRES A2 scenario is in the region of RCP 8.5. A SRES sce-

nario similar to RCP 2.6 and equivalent to the 2 °C target was

not part of the SRES group. In accordance with IPCC speci-

fications at the time, SRES scenarios did not take account of

mitigation activities nor, therefore, of stabilization. The range

of possible developments in the 21st century foreseen within

the new RCPs is therefore broader than that of the SRES sce-

narios.

S.1.2 Emissions, Sinks, and Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

In 2010 Austrian greenhouse gas emissions totaled approxi-

mately 81 Mt CO2-equivalents (81 000 Gg CO

2-eq.), 2, 3 that

2 1 Gg = 109 g, equals to 1 kt (thousand tonnes) and 1 Tg = 1 012 g = 1 Mt (million tonnes)3 All references to total GHG emissions consider the respective “global warming potential” (GWP). GWP describes the global warm-ing potential of a substance over a period of 100 years in relation to CO

2. In this way GHGs can be converted into CO

2-equivalents and

be considered in their sum. According to this definition the GWP of CO

2 is equal to 1. In this report, mandatory GWP values for report-

is, around 0.17 % of global emissions.4 At 9.7 t CO2-eq., Aus-

trian annual per capita emissions are slightly higher than the

EU annual average of 8.8 t CO2-eq. per capita, considerably

higher than Switzerland’s at 6.9 t CO2-eq., but significantly

lower than those of the USA (18.4 t CO2-eq.). Although

Austria committed itself under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce

GHG emissions by 13 % between 1990 and 2010, its 2010

emissions – if decreasing carbon sinks are taken into account –

were around 19 % above 1990 levels (see Figure S.1.4).

Fossil fuel use causes the largest share of Austrian national

GHG emissions, almost 63 Mt CO2-emissions 2010 (78 % of

total national GHG emissions). Over 17 % of emissions are at-

tributed to energy conversion (power stations, refineries, coke

ovens), almost 20 % to industrial energy conversion, approxi-

mately 13 % to heating (9 % of which in private households),

ing to UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Cli-mate Change) are used (IPCC 1996): 21 for CH

4 (i. e., the effect of

1 kg CH4 is equivalent to 21 kg of CO

2), 310 for N

2O, and between

140 and 23 900 for different fluorinated compounds.4 Natural biochemical cycles are not included as they are considered to be a constant background. All emissions data shown refer to 2010.

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 21000

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

Tem

pera

ture

incr

ease

rela

tive

to p

re-in

dust

rial [

°C]

RCP3-PD

RCP4.5

RCP6

RCP8.5

SRES

B1

SRES

B2

SRES

A1B

SRES

A2


40

and the majority of the remaining emissions (over 27 %) to

transport – all percentages are of total Austrian GHG emis-

sions. CH4 and N

2O are unwanted side products of com-

bustion, created in small amounts only. Transport emissions

consist almost exclusively of CO2; the share of N

2O is only

1.2 % and of CH4 less than 0.1 % of transport-related GHG

emissions.

In 2010 GHG emissions caused by industrial processes

were ranked second at 13 % (11 Mt CO2-eq.) after the en-

ergy sector. Emissions attributed to this sector include only

process-related emissions (industrial processes during which

GHGs are emitted); energy-related emissions are attributed to

energy conversion (fossil fuel use, see paragraph above). Pro-

cess emissions are divided up as follows: at 5.5 Mt CO2 (2010)

iron and steel production accounted for approximately 6.5 %

of Austrian GHG emissions. Ammonia production from natu-

ral gas accounted for 540 kt CO2. Emissions of N

2O, a by-

product of ammonia oxidation during nitric acid production,

were reduced to 64 kt CO2-eq., as the only Austrian plant was

fitted with devices for the catalytic reduction of the emerg-

ing N2O. In cement production, heating of carbonate rock

releases CO2, which accounted for 1.6 Mt CO

2 or almost 2 %

of total Austrian GHG emissions in 2010. Limestone pro-

duction accounts for 574 kt CO2. Magnesium sintering and

“limestone and dolomite use” each account for approximately

300 kt CO2, the latter being additives in blast furnace pro-

cesses. The emissions of fluorinated gases (fluorinated hydro-

carbons, F-gases) also relate primarily to industrial processes.

With atmospheric lifetimes of several hundred years, F-gases

have a strong climate effect. The refrigeration sector, includ-

ing stationary and mobile cooling appliances, air conditioning

units, and heat pumps, has seen the largest growth in F-gases.

Under the terms of a European directive, only F-gases with

GWP under 150 are permitted to be used in new appliances

as of 2011. The use of F-gases in other areas (excluding extin-

guishing agents and in electrical switching stations) is decreas-

ing, although older appliances and remaining stock are still

causing emissions.

In agriculture, significant emissions of CH4 and N

2O oc-

cur from enteric fermentation, manure management, and soil

(emissions from energy use are attributed to the energy sec-

tor). In 2010 agriculture was responsible for 7.5 Mt CO2-eq.

or 8.8 % of Austrian GHG emissions. The most significant

sources of agricultural GHG emissions in 2010 were enteric

fermentation from cattle (CH4 emissions contributed 3.9 %

to total Austrian GHG emissions) and N2O emissions from

soil cultivation (3.4 % in 2010). Manure management is re-

sponsible for both CH4 and N

2O emissions (0.4 % and 1 %

of the Austrian total, respectively). Although forests tend to

cause lower N2O emissions than agricultural land, their con-

tribution to Austrian emissions is still relevant due to the large

forested area in Austria. The calculation of N2O budgets from

the landscape scale to the continental level is an unresolved

challenge.

Biomass, in particular wood in forests, is a significant car-

bon repository. In Austria, this repository has tended to grow,

and forest-biomass has in the past, in most years, constitut-

ed a significant CO2 sink; however, in the last few years car-

bon sequestration has been on the decline and, in some years,

has come to a complete halt. Austria has almost 4 million ha

of forest (47.6 % of its territory); thus, a large carbon stock

(1990: 1 243 ±154 Mt CO2 or 339 ±42 Mt C in biomass and

1 698 ±678 Mt CO2 or 463 ±185 Mt C in soil), which is pre-

served due to sustainable forest management. Since the 1960s

forest area has been increasing at all altitudes, particularly at

altitudes of more than 1 800 m above sea level. As a result of

climate change (increasing length of the vegetation period),

improved nutrient availability (atmospheric nitrogen input)

and an optimization of forest management, wood stocks are

currently at record levels (2007 / 2009: 1 135 million cubic

meters). However, due to increased felling of trees and the re-

moval of particularly fast growing stocks, average productivity

is on the decline.

Because of the release of landfill gases (CH4 and CO

2,

but also CFCs and N2O) the waste management sector also

causes a non-negligible share of GHG emissions. GHGs are

emitted by waste incinerators and sewage treatment. CH4

emissions result from anaerobic conversion processes of bio-

logically degradable carbon compounds; their avoidances are

an urgent priority for sustainable climate protection in waste

management.

Modelling emissions from residual waste treatment for

2006 resulted in 1 250 kt CO2-eq., or 1.5 % of total Austrian

CO2 and CH

4 emissions (84 220 kt CO

2-eq.). Compared to

1990 levels, sectoral emissions have been decreasing due to

emission reductions in landfills from originally 2 030 kt CO2-

eq., which indicates a decrease of more than 38 %. As a result,

the sector-specific emissions have decreased by approximately

18 % to 0.89 Mg CO2-eq. / ton of residual waste.

The increase in total emissions since 1990 can be ex-

plained by the emissions of a few sectors. Major increases

were observed in the transport sector, some of which can be

explained by fuel exports “in the tank” (fuel tourism). Due to

lower fuel prices in Austria, trucks in transit (and also passen-

ger cars) tend to purchase considerable amounts of fuel in Aus-

tria (which are then apportioned to Austrian emissions) even

Synthesis

41

Figure S.1.4. Officially reported greenhouse gas emissions in Austria (according to the IPCC source sectors with especially defined emissions for the Transport sector). The brown line that is mainly below the zero line represents carbon sinks. The sector "Land use and land use change" (LULUCF) represents a sink for carbon and is therefore depicted below the zero line. In recent years, this sink was significantly smaller and no longer present in some years. This was mainly a result of higher felling; and changes to the survey methods contributed to this as well. Source: Anderl et al. (2012)

though much of the resulting distances are covered outside the

country. It has been estimated that these fuel exports account for

up to 30 % of transport-related CO2 emissions, although these

estimates are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Since the

1990s fuel prices in Austria have been consistently lower than

in major neighboring countries. Conversely, carbon sinks have

been lost: forests, which were active carbon sinks in the 1990s,

lost effectiveness around 2003, when forests stopped accumu-

lating CO2 due to improved use of biomass (Figure S.1.4).

Since 1999 the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and

since 2012 the concentration of CH4 have been measured

continuously at the Hoher Sonnblick observatory (3106 m

above sea level) within the framework of WMO’s Global At-

mosphere Watch-(GAW-) Program. In winter the concentra-

tion of CO2 is higher than in summer due to higher emissions

and lower levels of absorption by vegetation. Average annual

values have been rising continuously, from 369 ppm (2001) to

388 ppm (2009) (Figure S.1.5). Data on the ozone column

have been available at Sonnblick since 1994. Values are com-

parable to those measured in Arosa, Switzerland (±4 Dobson

Units). Both location sites exhibit high interannual fluctua-

tions, attributable to meteorological factors.

Inventories of particulate matter (PM) releases have been

developed in view of the negative health effects of PM. Yet,

in combination with knowledge of the chemical and physical

characteristics of the emitted particles some conclusions can

be drawn regarding their climate relevance. The Austrian PM

inventory assesses emissions of primary aerosols, that is, direct

particle emissions in the atmosphere, but not of particles that

develop from gaseous substances via atmospheric reactions

and condensation of gases on particles.

Transport emissions, which account for approximately

44 % of PM2.55 emissions, include combustion products pri-

marily from diesel motors (mainly diesel exhaust particulates)

and, to a lesser extent, suspended particles from road dust.

Emissions from small heating installations (approximately

30 % of PM2.5 emissions) mainly include emissions from

heating systems that use solid fuels, particularly wood (coal

is hardly used as a fuel any more). Old heating systems and

single stoves in particular cause significant emissions; and, due

to their long lifespans, these appliances will continue to play

a role in emissions for quite some time to come. With regard

to emissions from domestic heating, elementary carbon (EC;

soot), a part of the aerosol that has a particularly strong climate

effect, is a significant component of PM2.5. The emissions, for

example, from a typical Austrian tiled stove for various types

of wood and wood briquettes have a soot component of 9.8 %

(larch logs) and 31 % EC (soft wood briquettes). The emis-

sion factors of different biomass combustion systems were de-

5 PM2.5 are particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Waste

Agriculture

Products

Industrial processes

Energy, general

Transport

Total (without LULUCF)

Carbon sink (LULUCF)

Mio

. t C

O2-E

quiv

alen

t


42

Figure S.1.5. Time series of CO2 at Sonnblick Observatory (black line) in comparison with the measurements at Mauna Loa Observa-tory (grey line) for the last 50 years. Source: Böhm et al. (2011)

termined in the course of a bench test under various realistic

operating conditions. Modern biomass-based heating systems

have very low emissions; older single stoves and log burners,

many of which are still in use, have high soot emissions. As

soot is able to absorb radiation and thus have climate impacts,

the advantage of avoiding fossil CO2 emissions by using bio-

mass fuels is diminished.

Particle formation (nucleation) in the atmosphere is an

important parameter for the climate relevance of aerosols.

Secondary inorganic aerosols (mainly sulphates, nitrates)

and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are formed in the

atmosphere mainly through photochemical reactions on the

part of precursor gases (e. g., NH3, NO

x, SO

2, volatile organic

compounds, VOC). Currently, no estimate of the annual con-

tribution of secondary aerosols to the amount of aerosols in

Austria is available. SOA are particularly important and are

currently the subject of intense scientific scrutiny. Due to the

long-distance transport of precursor gases, there can be very

high background concentrations of ozone (O3) and aerosol

particles.

The data on aerosol mass concentrations collected by moni-

toring networks are alone insufficient to draw conclusions

about the climate relevance of aerosols; however, together with

other parameters (typical size distributions, meteorological

conditions, chemical composition), they can be used to esti-

mate climate-relevant aerosol characteristics. The atmospheric

concentration of aerosols depends on emissions (see above),

long-range transport, and meteorological and dispersion con-

ditions.

The chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols which,

via their refractive and hygroscopic properties, also influences

their climate-relevant parameters contains information about

sources and chemical transformations in the atmosphere. With

the help of a “macro-tracer” model, street dust and road salt,

inorganic secondary aerosol, wood combustion, and traffic

have been identified as the most important aerosol sources

in Austria, although the relative contribution of the individual

sources varies both regionally and temporally. The contribu-

tion of wood smoke to organic carbon (OC) in aerosol was

between one-third and 70 %, the contribution to PM10 from

7–23 %. Under particular conditions “brown carbon” (BrC)

from biomass fires can considerably exceed soot from traffic

sources.

The Sonnblick observatory at 3 106 m above sea level is one

of the most important background monitoring stations for

aerosols and gases in Austria. Measurements of the chemical

composition of aerosol demonstrate the changes that have tak-

en place over the last 20 years and also the differences between

the aerosol in the free troposphere (winter) and the planetary

boundary layer (summer; Figure S.1.6). Long-distance trans-

port of air masses (containing, for example, Saharan dust) can

be observed all year round. The aerosol at Sonnblick was also

investigated regarding aerosol-cloud interaction. The “scav-

enging efficiency” of soot (i. e., the fraction of atmospher-

ic soot that can be found in droplets) is lower than that of

sulphate (on average 54 % compared with 78 % on the Rax

mountain at 1 680 m above sea level); yet a significant portion

of the soot enters the cloud water by this process, where it can

influence the radiative properties of clouds. Under conditions

of 90 % relative humidity, calculations of the direct effect of

the Sonnblick aerosol resulted in radiative forcing of between

+0.16 W / m2 (assuming a ground covered by old snow) and

+11.63 W / m2 (fresh snow).

Carbonaceous aerosol has also been measured continu-

ously at Sonnblick since 2005, and shows annual variations

and concentrations similar to sulphate. Organic material

(OM) accounts for the largest contribution to total carbon

(TC). Approximately 10 % of OM can be attributed to wood

burning (summer: 4 %; winter: 23 %).

Because of the indirect effect of aerosol on the radiation

budget, knowledge about cloud formation processes and cloud

condensation nuclei (CCN) are extremely important. In Aus-

tria, CCN have been measured in various places (e. g., Rax,

Sonnblick, Vienna). Long-term measurements of CCN in Vi-

enna show that concentrations (at 0.5 % supersaturation) are

between 160 cm3 and 3 600 cm3, with an average of 820 cm3.

Although seasonal variations have not been observed, CCN

concentrations demonstrate large short-term variations, which

result from different meteorological situations (stable weather

conditions, passage of weather fronts).

Sonnblick, Austria

Synthesis

43

Overall, due to their complex processes and interactions,

the influences of aerosols on climate are a considerable scien-

tific challenge. They are the largest uncertainty factor in deter-

mining radiative forcing.

S.1.3 Past Climate Change

To enable current climate change to be seen in context, refer-

ence is made to natural climate changes that have significantly

shaped the current geological period, the Quaternary. When

interpreting these climate developments, consideration must

be given to the fact that the relevance of climate changes for

humans depends fundamentally on population and lifestyle.

For example, during the Pleistocene humans had not yet set-

tled and population was at about 1 % of current levels.

The Pleistocene, which began 2.6 million years ago and

ended 11 700 years ago, was shaped by an interplay between

long glacial periods and short interglacial periods, controlled

by changes in the parameters of the earth’s orbit (shape of its

orbit, and tilt and orientation of its rotation axis). The glacial

periods were characterized by a climate of enormous variabil-

ity, much larger than the climate variations that took place

during the Holocene. The Dansgaard-Oeschger events (chang-

es between very cold stadials and comparatively warm inter-

stadials) known from Greenland ice cores, originated in insta-

bilities in the large ice sheets and their interaction with deep

water circulation in the Atlantic. This underlines the synchro-

nous nature of high frequency glacial climate change at the

supra-regional level. During the coldest phases of the glacial

periods (the stadials) the Alpine foothills experienced arctic

climate conditions with very cold winters. The warm periods

were accompanied by abrupt decreases in seasonality (milder

winters), but were initially, around 75 000 years ago, too weak

to permit extensive reforestation in Austria. Toward the end

of the last glacial period (Würm), approximately 30 000 years

ago, a glacier advance beyond the Alpine foothills began. To

date, reliable paleo-climate data for the Alps do not exist: how-

ever, it is assumed that the average annual temperature was at

least 10 °C below the corresponding temperature during the

Holocene, combined with a significant decrease in precipita-

tion toward the east.

Some 19 000 years ago the glaciers in the Alpine foothills

and large Alpine valleys rapidly disintegrated. A number of

regional and local glacial advances, primarily in the large tribu-

tary valleys, occurred in line with the climate developments in

the North Atlantic–European region. Approximately 16 500

years ago, precipitation in the central Alpine region was re-

duced to between half and one-third of current values and the

summer temperature was around 10 °C below current values.

At the snow line of the glaciers that were then in existence, the

ablation period lasted only approximately 50 days, around half

the current duration. Winters were very cold and dry and com-

parable to present-day winters in the Canadian Arctic. Around

14 700 years ago a period with considerably more favorable

inter-stadial conditions began within only a few decades, dur-

ing which time, forests returned to north Alpine valleys and

foothills. About 12 900 years ago the massive climate setback

of the Younger Dryas began, the last significant cold phase in

the northern hemisphere, which ended within a period of a

few decades, 11 700 years ago. In the Alps, this period was

characterized by considerable glacial advances in upper valley

areas, a significant lowering of the timber line, and increased

geo-morphological activity due to permafrost in non-glaciated

areas. The snow line was 300–500 m lower and the lower limit

of permafrost at least 600 m lower than during the middle

of the 20th century. Summer temperature was approximately

3.5 °C lower than during the middle of the 20th century, and

annual temperature was lower still. In the central Alps precipi-

tation levels were approximately 20–30 % lower than today,

whereas the outer regions of the Alps may have been wetter.

The climate during the Holocene. The first centuries of

the Holocene were characterized by glacial advances that were

Figure S.1.6. Temporal variation of monthly mean values of particulate sulphate, nitrate and ammonium at the Sonnblick Observatory from 1991 to 2009. Sources: Kasper and Puxbaum (1998); Sanchez-Ochoa and Kapser-Giebl (2005); Effenberger et al. (2008)


44

2100

2200

2300

2400

1011121314

Tem

pera

tur [

°C ]

-9.0

-8.5

-8.0

-7.5

-7.0δ 18

O [‰

, VP

DB

]ad

vanc

eG

laci

ar-

0

10

20

30

Den

dro-

and

14 C

-da

ta [n

]0.00.51.01.52.0

Tem

pera

tur [

°C ]

45678910

Tem

pera

tur [

°C ]

450

460

470

480

[W/m

2 ]S

umm

er (J

JA)

Inso

latio

n 47

°

120

130

140

150

Inso

latio

n 47

°W

inte

r (D

JF)

[W/m

2 ]

1365

1366

TSI [

W/m

2 ]H

igh

wat

er m

ark

-37

-36

-35

-34

δ 18

O [‰

, VS

MO

W]

-9000 -8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000

01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000Year b2k [before 2000 AD]

-1/1

δ18O Höhlensinter (Spannagelhöhle)

T July(Lake Hinterburgsee, 1515 m)

Treeline Kaunertal

Gepatschferneradvance > 1940 AD

Alpin glaciers < ca. 2000 AD

Jahr v./n.Chr.

T July - simulation(Central Europe)

T Juli(Lake Schwarzsee, 2796 m)

WinterSummer

Solar activity

(a)

(b)

(d)

(e)

(f)

(g)

(h)

(i)

(j)

?

Lake forlands NW-Alps

Lago di Ledro

(c)

(k)

(l)

NGRIP

Alti

tude

[a.s

.l.]

Hig

h w

ater

mar

k

Synthesis

45

considerably more extensive than during the “little ice age”:

there may have been permafrost in regions up to 200 m lower

than today. Summer temperatures during the earliest Holo-

cene were 1.5–2 °C lower than in the 20th century, whereas

precipitation levels were comparable to today’s. A selection of

reconstructions of climate parameters from proxy data can be

found in Figure S.1.7.

The cold start to the Holocene was followed by significant

warming. According to reconstructions from various Austrian

climate archives, temperature values during the first two-thirds

of the Holocene were above the 20th century average. All proxy

data show a long-term temperature decrease of around 2 °C

from the early to middle Holocene maximum values (i. e., un-

til approximately 7 000 years ago) to the preindustrial period.

The undisputed cause of this cooling trend is the decrease in

solar radiation to the northern hemisphere in summer, caused

by orbital variability. In contrast, another much discussed cli-

mate forcer, solar activity, demonstrates no comparable long-

term trend. Analysis of precipitation during the Holocene

shows no long-term development to date; rather multi-decadal

and multi-century periods with higher and lower levels of pre-

cipitation alternating. Periods with increased precipitation co-

incided with phases of reduced solar activity.

During the last 11 000 years, glaciers in the Alps were char-

acterized by long periods with comparatively small expansion

during the early and middle Holocene (up to around 4 000

years ago) and multiple and extensive advances in the follow-

ing millennia, which cumulated in the large glacier extent dur-

ing the “little ice age” (from approximately 1260 to 1840 AD).

The extent of glaciation during the early and middle Holo-

cene was beneath and above current levels, several times over.

However, alpine glaciers are currently not in balance with the

climate they are controlled by, which is manifest in the strong

melting that has been observed. It is thus difficult to directly

compare the current glaciation extent with earlier ones with

regard to climatic boundary conditions.

The climate of the last two thousand years. During the

last 2 000 years there was a succession of warmer and colder

periods, which, on average, were colder than during the begin-

ning and middle of the Holocene. This time can be roughly

divided into four periods, starting with the relatively stable

and mild Roman warm period (from approximately 250 BC

to 300 AD). This was followed by an unstable period, through

to the end of the Roman era and during the early Middle Ages

(from approximately 300 to 840 AD), characterized by moist

and cold summers. This, in turn, was followed by a warmer,

more stable period (Medieval Warm Period, from approxi-

mately 840 to 1260 AD). Between 1260 and 1860 AD it was

considerably colder: only during individual decades were prov-

en warmer temperatures demonstrated. Because of the gener-

ally large glaciation shown to have existed during this period,

it is also referred to as the “little ice age.” Several minima of

solar activity and also climate-effective volcanic eruptions oc-

curred during this period. The significant increase in tempera-

tures during the 20th century measured by instrumentation is

reflected by the natural climate archives, even though many

proxy datasets ended in around 2000 AD and do not include

current climate developments in their entirety.

The instrumental period. The Austrian network of meteo-

rological monitoring stations is such that long-term climate

change in the 19th and 20th centuries can be accurately de-

scribed. The oldest evaluable measurement series in Austria,

the Kremsmünster series, dates back as far as 1767 and is one

Figure S.1.7. (Left page) Holocene environmental records and proxy-based climate reconstructions from Austria, the Alps and Greenland in comparison with selected climate forcings. a) evolution of insolation during summer (June-July-August) and winter (December-January-Febru-ary) at 47°N; b) reconstruction of solar variability for the last 9 000 years; c)oxygen-isotope record of the NGRIP ice-core, central Greenland; d) simulation of the temperature evolution in July in central Europe over the last 9 000 years until the pre-industrial period ; d) dendrochro-�� *��<��<� ��&=��>�� *��?�@@%�X��%�%�\^�"��_��> ��the glacier Gepatschferner beyond the glacier’s size in 1940 AD; g) tree-line record in the Kauner valley based on wood remain findings; h) chironomid-based reconstruction of July temperature from lake Hinterburg, Switzerland; i) chironomid based reconstruction of July tempera-ture from Schwarzsee ob Sölden; j) oxygen-isotope record of speleothems from the Spannagel cave; (k) lake-level high-stands of Lago di Ledro during the last 5 000 years; (l) lake-level high-stands in the foreland of the NW-Alps and the Jura. Source: Compiled for AAR14

Figure S.1.8. Anomalies in the annual mean air temperature for Austria (1768 to 2011) and the global mean temperature relative to the respective 20th century mean (1850 to 2011). Single values and smoothed values using a 20-year Gaussian low pass filter. Source: Böhm, (2012), source HISTALP (http://www.zamg.ac.at/histalp) and CRU-data (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/data)/)

-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,5

-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,5

1760178018001820184018601880190019201940196019802000

Ano

mal

ies

rela

tive

to 1

901–

2000

Temperatur: Austrian mean – global mean – Year °C°C


46

of the longest continuous weather records in Europe. Data

from stations in Vienna (old university observatory) and Inns-

bruck (university) can be used for climate analysis of the latter

part of the 18th century. Of particular note is the high-alpine

Sonnblick observatory, the weather records of which date back

to 1886. The measuring station is situated at the peak of “Ho-

her Sonnblick,” 3 106 m above sea level, directly on the main

ridge of the Alps.

In Austria, the temperature has risen by nearly 2 °C in the

period since 1880, compared with a global increase of 0.85 °C.

The increase can be observed particularly in the period after

1980, during which global temperatures rose by approximate-

ly 0.5 °C, compared with an increase of approximately 1 °C in

Austria (virtually certain, Figure S.1.8; Volume 1, Chapter 3).

Seasonal temperature developments did not always run parallel

to the annual average; nevertheless, warming has occurred dur-

ing all seasons since the mid-19th century, with lowest increases

taking place in the autumn. The cooling effect of anthropo-

genic aerosols (“global dimming”) likely played an important

role in the temperature stagnating to decreasing during the

three decades from about 1950 to 1980; this masked the effect

of GHG emissions that were already on the increase.

Temperature developments in higher air layers, derived

from homogenized radiosonde measurements, are very simi-

lar at 3 000 m above sea level to developments at high alpine

stations. The higher warming trend observed in the Alpine

region, when compared to the global average, gradually de-

creases to typical mid-latitude warming trends in higher lay-

ers. A significant temperature decrease can be observed in the

stratosphere (13 to 50 km above sea level) above Austria, and

also globally.

Air pressure at lowland stations demonstrates a very long-

term increase from the middle of the 19th to the end of the 20th

centuries, which was replaced by an abrupt change in trend to

decreasing air pressure in around 1990. Air pressure at Alpine

high altitude stations is also influenced by the temperature of

air masses below the measurement stations. Because of the

warming of air masses below, these stations show a stronger

positive pressure trend and no pressure decrease since 1990.

This deviating trend in air pressure at high Alpine observato-

ries, when compared with lowland trends, is a confirmation of

warming that does not depend on thermometer measurements.

In the past 130 years the annual duration of sunshine

at mountain stations in the Alps has increased by around

20 %, or more than 300 hours. The increase was higher in

summer than in winter (virtually certain, Volume 1, Chap-

ter 3). Due to increased cloudiness and an increase in air pollu-

tion from 1950 to 1980, the duration of sunshine in summer

Figure S.1.9. Anomalies of the annual precipitation totals relative to mean of the 20th century for two Austrian subregions (top: “West”, bottom: “Southeast”). Single values and 20-year smoothed values (Gaussian low pass filter). Time-series date back to 1813, but with differing starting dates, and con-tinue through to 2011. Copyright by R. Böhm (2012), source HISTALP http://www.zamg.ac.at/histalp

5060708090

100110120130140150160170180190200210220

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-20-100102030405060708090100110120130140150

%%Precipitation: annual totals for Austrian regions WEST and SOUTHEAST

Per

cent

age

of th

e m

ean

1901

-200

0

Synthesis

47

decreased significantly, particularly in valleys. The sustained

trend of more sunshine since 1980 is accompanied by more

and longer summer fair-weather periods.

Unlike temperature developments, developments in pre-

cipitation demonstrate considerable regional differences

during the past 150 years: while levels of precipitation have

increased by around 10–15 % in western Austria, the south-

east has seen a decrease of similar proportions (Figure S.1.9).

In inner Alpine regions and in the north, decadal variations

predominate. All parts of Austria were particularly dry during

the 1860s. Such values have only been reached or undercut in

the southeast during the dry 1940s and the persistently dry

decades after 1970.

There were decades with high levels of precipitation in the

first half of the 19th century. This played an important role

in the glacial advances during this period, which led to the

two maximum glacier levels in around 1820 and in the 1850s.

There was also high annual precipitation in the decades be-

tween 1900 and 1940 (almost continuous in inner Alpine

regions and in the southeast, reduced in the west and inter-

rupted by an arid phase in around 1930 in the north). This

was followed by lower levels of precipitation in the north and

in inner Alpine regions, that were followed again by a marked

change in the 1970s and – particularly in northern and north-

eastern Austria – a new precipitation maximum in the first

decade of the 21st century. Current levels of precipitation in

the west are also at their highest since measurements began in

1858. In inner Alpine regions current precipitation levels are

around the long-term 20th century average, in the southeast –

in the course of the decreasing long-term trend – around 10 %

below the long-term 20th century average. In mountainous Austria, climate change at higher eleva-

tions is of great importance. The climate series from Hoher

Sonnblick (3 106 m) are considered to be representative for

a high mountain climate. According to these measurements,

temperature increase in high mountain regions is similar to

that in valleys, although a considerably stronger increase in

sunshine can be observed, which can be attributed to Eu-

ropean clean air measures. There has been a clear shift from

snowfall to rain; at Hoher Sonnblick about 30 % of precipita-

tion is presently rain. Average air pressure is increasing in the

mountains – a sign that the lower-lying air masses are warm-

ing. A significant decrease in glacier volume and extent and

melting of permafrost have also been documented (Volume 1,

Chapter 5).

Austria has very good long-term meteorological measure-

ment series, offering a high potential for the integration of

data analysis and model simulations. International coopera-

tion would lend itself very well to the compilation of high-res-

olution datasets, both temporally and spatially, for the Alpine

region and Europe. It would also be beneficial to strengthen

less well developed measurement networks, such as those for

measuring GHGs, aerosols, and radiation.

S.1.4 Future Climate Change

To make geographically detailed statements about the future

climate, primarily regional climate models are applied, which

are integrated into the results of global climate models. As with

global models, the results of different models are analyzed to

differentiate between robust and less robust results. There are a

number of simulations of both past and future climate cover-

ing the Alpine region and Austria. In the following, simula-

tions based on the A1B emission scenario – a scenario with

a medium to large increase in GHG concentrations – will be

the main focus of analysis. Using one scenario enhances the

comparability of results. Using this particular scenario makes

the changes more apparent than a more optimistic scenario

(with lower emission increases) on the one hand, and is closer

to current emissions trends, on the other. Furthermore, this

choice is more consistent with the precautionary principle, de-

scribed earlier.

In Austria a further temperature increase is to be ex-

pected (very likely, Volume 1, Chapter 4; see also Figure

S.1.10). In the first half of the 21st century temperature will

increase by approximately 1.4 °C compared to today’s tem-

perature level. This increase is not greatly affected by assump-

tions about future greenhouse gas emissions because of inertia

in the climate system and the longevity of greenhouse gases

in the atmosphere. The temperature development thereafter,

however, is strongly dependent on anthropogenic greenhouse

gas emissions in the coming years, and can therefore be influ-

enced (very likely, see Volume 1, Chapter 4). Figure S.1.10

shows the temperature development in Austria from 1800 to

2100 as a deviation from the average temperature during the

period 1971 to 2000, for the A1B emissions scenario. The an-

ticipated medium temperature increase in the Alpine region

for the period 2021 to 2050 compared to the reference period

1961 to 1990 is +1.6 °C (0.27 °C per decade) in winter and

1.7 °C (0.28 °C per decade) in summer. Further and acceler-

ated warming of the Alpine region is projected by the end of

the 21st century in the A1B emissions scenario.

In the 21st century, an increase in precipitation in the

winter months (around 10 %) and a decrease in the summer

months (around 10–20 %) is to be expected (likely, Volume

1, Chapter 4). The annual average shows no clear trend, as the


48

Figure S.1.10. Mean surface temperature in Austria since 1800 (instrumental observations, in colour) and expected temperature development until 2100 (grey) for one of the higher emission IPCC scenarios (IPCC SRES A1B), shown as a deviation from the mean 1971 to 2000. Columns represent annual means, the line smoothed values over a 20 year filter. The slight temperature drop until almost 1900 and the strong temperature increase (about 1 °C) since the 1980´s can be clearly seen. For this scenario, a tem-perature increase of 3.5 °C until the end of the century is expected (RECLIP Simulations). Source: ZAMG

Alpine region lies in a transition region between two zones

with opposing trends (likely, Volume 1, Chapter 4). Figure

S.1.11 shows how precipitation develops in Austria (divided

into two regions, northwest and southeast) for winter and

summer from 1800 to 2100, as a deviation from the average

during the period 1971 to 2000. On the basis of several mod-

els, a tendency toward precipitation increase north of the Alps

in spring, summer, and autumn can be expected, whereas the

southern and western parts of the Alpine region exhibit de-

creases. However, these geographically differentiated precipita-

tion changes are subject to a high level of uncertainty. Figure

S.1.12 shows the annual cycle of changes for the periods 2021

to 2050 and 2069 to 2098 based on an ensemble of models.

Although the trend described toward increased precipitation

in winter and decreased precipitation in summer can be identi-

fied in the median in the first half of the century, models show

no agreement about the direction of the changes in this period

(left panel). Toward the end of the 21st century, the A1B sce-

nario shows a clear trend toward drier conditions in summer

(approximately 20 % less precipitation) and wetter conditions

in winter (approximately +10 %).

Similar to the trends in precipitation, global radiation

(shortwave solar and sky radiation) shows almost no change

throughout the year until the middle of the 21st century.

However, toward the end of the 21st century a significant

increase can be observed in summer and a decrease in win-

ter (Figure S.1.12). This is consistent with projections of

precipitation, as precipitation-producing clouds shield solar

radiation.

The clear decrease in relative moisture, approximately 5 %

by the end of the century, is a result of the lower amounts

of precipitation during summer months. Projections of wind

speeds are subject to high levels of uncertainty – models proj-

ect both positive and negative trends – although most models

anticipate a decrease in wind speeds rather than an increase by

the end of the century (Figure S.1.12).

Methodological advances to optimize the interface between

purely physical climate modelling and the ever more impor-

tant investigation of regional impacts of climate change are

necessary and promise a comparatively quick increase in qual-

ity of climate impact research. This also requires a better un-

derstanding of small-scale processes and extreme events.

S.1.5 Extreme events

Extreme weather events can have significant impacts on na-

ture, infrastructure, and human life. They are, however, statis-

tically difficult to determine, as changes in rare events can only

be identified in long time series – the more extreme the event,

the longer the time series required. Uncertainty regarding

frequency and intensity of small-scale extreme events such as

thunder- or hailstorms also results from a lack of geographical

and temporal resolution of the available climate data and mod-

els. In Austria statistical analysis of extreme events is rendered

difficult by the fact that most of the older time series with

daily data were lost in World War II and only time series with

monthly mean values remain. Furthermore, the strong non-

linearity of the phenomena that lead to extreme events has still

not been fully resolved scientifically and remains a challenge.

However, some statements can be made about extreme events,

particularly if the considerations or calculations are based on

the atmospheric processes that underlie such events.

Temperature extremes are increasing (heat). Analyses

based on homogenized daily temperature extremes since 1950

show an increase in hot days and warm nights across Austria.

In parallel to these developments, cold days and cold nights

have decreased significantly. With the increase in temperature

extremes, the number of frost days and ice days has decreased.

In the 21st century temperature extremes, for example the

number of hot days, will increase significantly (very likely,

Volume 1, Chapter 4). According to model projections, tem-

perature in Austria will increase by 4 °C during hot periods in

summer by the end of the 21st century. At the same time the

frequency of heat waves will increase from around 5 to around

15 per year by the end of the century. At the two hottest Vien-

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Tem

pera

ture

Dev

ia�o

n [°

C]

−4

−2

0

2

6

Avg.

cha

nge

20

21−2

050

Avg.

cha

nge

20

71−2

100

Range of ENSEMBLES Simula�ons

Smoothed Yearly Devia�ons from HISTALP Observa�onsRange of RECLIP Simula�onsAverage of RECLIP Simula�ons

4

Synthesis

49

nese stations, the number of hot days will increase from on

average around 15 currently to around 30 by the middle of

the century and between 45 and 50 by the end of the century.

At the same time, the number of cold nights with frost in the

inner city will decrease from around 50 events currently, to

fewer than 40 by the middle of the century and just over 20

by the end of the century (Volume 1, Chapter 2; Volume 1,

Chapter 4).

Cities in particular will be affected by temperature extremes,

as the effects of urban heat islands are superimposed on to cli-

mate change. In Vienna, as an example of urban space, a sta-

tistically significant increasing trend in the temperature differ-

ence between the city and its surroundings has been observed

since 1951. High temperatures during the day and less cooling

during the night lead to negative health effects in the urban

population (Volume 1 Chapter 5; Volume 3, Chapter 4). In

future, with further increases in temperature, heat stress will

present a significant challenge for urban areas. In this con-

nection an increased demand for energy for cooling can be

expected, while at the same time the demand for heating will

decrease (Volume 3, Chapter 5). Urban-planning measures,

such as compact building structures with ample ventilation,

adequate shade, greening roofs, facades, and streets and light-

colored surfaces, can significantly reduce urban heat stress.

Given the long-term nature of urban planning and the ex-

pected increase in heat stress for the population, timely plan-

ning of such measures is of utmost importance (Volume 1,

Chapter 5).

Due to insufficient data, statements about the change in fre-

quency of damage-inflicting precipitation events are subject to

significant uncertainty. Extreme-value indices, derived from

homogenized time series of daily precipitation sums, and in-

tensity of precipitation or maximum daily precipitation sums,

show neither statistically significant nor consistent trends to

Figure S.1.11. Precipitation development in Austria since 1800 (instrumental observations) and expected development to 2100, shown as a deviation from the mean 1971 to 2000. Bars at the top show the winter season (December to February, DJF), the bars at the bottom the sum-mer season (June to August, JJA). The region of Austria is divided (north-west and south-east) into two regions. The observational data for the past stem from the HISTALP database, scenarios for the future from the 22 ensemble simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org, grey bars for single years) and from reclip: century (http://reclip.ait.ac.at/reclip_century, coloured bars for the time slices 2021 to 2050 and 2071 to 2100)

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

−100

−80

−60

−40

−20

0

20

40

60

80

100NORTHWEST

DJF

Prec

ipita

�on

Devi

a�on

[%]

Avg.

cha

nge

2021

−205

0

2071

−210

0

−100

−80

−60

−40

−20

0

20

40

60

80

100

−100

−80

−60

−40

−20

0

20

40

60

80

100

JJA

−100

−80

−60

−40

−20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

SOUTHEAST

Avg.

cha

nge

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Prec

ipita

�on

Devi

a�on

[%]

Range of RECLIP Simula�onsAverage of RECLIP Simula�onsRange of ENSEMBLES Simula�ons

Smoothed Yearly Devia�ons from HISTALP Observa�ons


50

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

T [K

]

−60−50−40−30−20−10

010203040

P [%

]

−25−20−15−10

−505

1015202530

G [W

m−2

]

−12

−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

RH

[%]

−0.5−0.4−0.3−0.2−0.1

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.6

WS

[m s

−1]

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

−60−50−40−30−20−10

010203040

−25−20−15−10

−505

1015202530

−12

−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

−0.5−0.4−0.3−0.2−0.1

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.6

2021–2050 2069–2098

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec



Figure S.1.12. Annual cycle of expected monthly mean change of temperature (T), precipitation (P), global radiation (G), relative humid-ity (RH), and wind speed (WS) in the Alpine region relative to the reference period 1961 to 1990 for the SRES A1B-Scenario. Left column: 2021 to 2050, right column: 2069 to 2098. The blue line indicates the median, the grey shading the 10–90th percentile range of the multi model ensemble. Source: Gobiet et al. (2014)

Synthesis

51

date. Large-scale extreme precipitation events have tended to

increase since 1980.

Climate models indicate more extreme events in future.

However, to date almost all model studies on future precipi-

tation extremes consider only changes in mean values on a

seasonal basis or the probability of exceeding defined percen-

tiles for large areas. Statements regarding the intensity and

frequency of future extreme events become more robust the

larger the spatial or temporal scale of the extreme event (e. g.,

large-scale dry spells; Volume 1, Chapter 4). In general, the

more detailed analyses of precipitation extremes are, then the

larger the uncertainties and differences between models. Re-

sults of simulations of high-resolution regional models often

demonstrate geographical patterns of climate signals for the

future that are of such complexity that a clear interpretation

is impossible. This is particularly true for extreme convective

precipitation events, as frequently occur during fair weather

in summer or in the Alpine foothills (Volume 1, Chapter 3;


The potential for increased probability of heavy precipita-

tion can be deduced from a warmer future atmosphere con-

taining more water vapor. From autumn to spring extreme

precipitation events will probably increase (Volume 1, Chap-

ter 4). For Central Europe, models show that the number of

days with precipitation and the intensity of precipitation will

increase by 10 % during the winter. There will, however, be

differences across Central Europe as to whether multi-day

heavy precipitation events, which pose a considerable risk of

floods due to soil water saturation, will increase or decrease.

During summer months in Austria, an increase in intensity of

17–26 % of 30-year precipitation events has been projected for

the period 2007–2051, in comparison with the period 1963–

2006. The increase in precipitation intensity during autumn

appears to be particularly distinct in the southeast and east of

Austria – this may be an indication for a change in frequency

of weather patterns in the eastern Alpine region (Volume 1,

Chapter 4).

The climate of the Mediterranean is of particular impor-

tance for flood risk in Austria because air masses can quickly

become enriched with moisture over the Mediterranean Sea

and carried into the Alpine region. In particular, the pro-

nounced precipitation maximum in October in southern Aus-

tria can be attributed to low pressure areas moving in from

the Mediterranean (particularly those on “Vb-tracks”) and

the high surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea at that

time of year. Many disastrous floods in the past have been at-

tributed to cyclones on Vb-like tracks, including the events

in July 1997, August 2002, and August 2005. Although it is

not possible to quantify the potential future changes in the

frequency of precipitation-intense Vb-track cyclones, it is

clear that a warmer Mediterranean Sea in future could lead

to more precipitation-intense Vb-cyclones and consequent-

ly increase the risk of extreme floods in Austria (Volume 1,

Chapter 4).

No long-term increase in storm activity, deduced from

homogenized daily air pressure data, could be detected, de-

spite a number of major storm events in the past years. For the

future, no change can yet be inferred. Models indicate a weak

decrease in maximum daily wind speeds of 20-year events.

However, the details of the results are uncertain and, depend-

ing on the model, range from +10 % to −10 % (Volume 1,

Chapter 4).

Changes in the frequency or intensity of thunderstorms

and hail are among the most relevant but also most challeng-

ing questions in climate research. Analysis of weather condi-

tions conducive to hail storms shows a weak but statistically

significant increase in the potential for hail storms in Central

Europe over the past decades. Regional models do not indicate

any change for the future (2010 to 2050) in this regard (Vol-

ume 1, Chapter 4).

Investigations into aridity show a three-fold increase in

the likelihood of the occurrence of drought in future climate,

2071–2100, compared to the past (1961–1990) for the SRES

A1B scenario. The length of dry periods also increases and soil

moisture content drops below present levels. As models cannot

yet determine, with sufficient reliability, regional precipitation,

local soil moisture, and the persistence of atmospheric circu-

lation, these projections remain subject to significant uncer-

tainty (Volume 1, Chapter 4).

Lake Neusiedl, a shallow lake with highly variable water

levels depending mainly on precipitation (Steppensee), will be

particularly affected by aridity. Lake Neusiedl has significant

influence on regional climate, is important for tourism, water

sports, shipping, and fisheries and has unique fauna and flora.

Despite infrastructural measures being in place to regulate wa-

ter levels, the water budget is influenced mainly by natural

factors that depend largely on climate. Slightly lower precipita-

tion levels during the period 1997–2004 with increasing tem-

peratures led to continuously decreasing water levels in Lake

Neusiedl. In particular, the low water level in the year 2003,

caused by extremely low annual precipitation and high air and

water temperature, raised the question as to whether, subject

to future climate conditions, the lake would dry up. Studies

showed that warming of 2.5 °C would lead to an increase in

evaporation of over 20 %. To compensate for this loss of water,

precipitation would need to increase by approximately 20 %,


52

which, according to current climate scenarios, is unlikely. A

succession of dry years in future could lead to very low water

levels or even to the lake drying up. Water management mea-

sures could temper but ultimately not hinder this process. It is

expected that even a moderate decline in the water level would

have significant ecological and economic impacts. Therefore,

both mitigation (supplying additional water) and adaptation

strategies, such as diversifying tourism activities and extend-

ing the spring and autumn seasons, are being considered (Vol-

ume 1, Chapter 5).

S.1.6 Thinking Ahead: Surprises, Abrupt Changes and Tipping Points in the Cli-mate System

Unexpected weather situations and new surprising research

results often help to close knowledge gaps. A surprising devel-

opment in recent times was the hypothesis that the decline in

sea ice in the Arctic might directly influence the duration of

winter in Europe, the snow pack, and the temperature levels,

and, in particular, that it could lead to more frequent intrusion

of cold Arctic air masses causing extremely cold conditions in

Europe. The decline in Arctic sea ice is an example of unex-

pected abrupt changes in the climate system that could also

occur in other elements of the system. In particular, exceed-

ing the so-called tipping points could lead to positive feedback

loops and thus to irreversible and very extreme changes in the

global climate system (Volume 1, Chapter 5).

Such disruptions are hard to predict; however, it is known

that various components or phenomena of the climate sys-

tem have experienced abrupt and partly irreversible changes

in the past. The question regarding the occurrence of tipping

points in the future can be neither definitely negated nor con-

firmed. However, it is assumed that increasing temperatures

generally and warming of more than 2 °C over pre-industri-

al levels in particular, will increase the likelihood of abrupt

changes. Tipping points can occur not only in the climate sys-

tem, but also in other natural, political, economic, and social

systems as a result of climate change. Such processes imply

enormous impacts on human civilization, and the precaution-

ary principle requires that they be considered when political,

economic, and societal decisions are being made (Volume 1,

Chapter 5).

S.2 Impacts on the Environment and Society

S.2.1 Introduction

Humans and the environment are connected inseparably.

The impacts of climate change therefore need to be considered

in an integrated manner for the human-environment system

(Figure S.2.1; Volume 2, Chapter 1).

The current epoch is also referred to as the Anthropo-

cene. There are (with a few exceptions) very few places and

subsystems on the planet that are not influenced by human ac-

tivity. As humans have become the dominant driver of change

on our planet, the term Anthropocene (the Greek “anthropo”

meaning human and “cene” meaning new) was coined for the

current geological epoch (Volume 2, Chapter 1). The manifold

human influences on the environment – of which anthropo-

genic climate change is just one aspect – make it difficult to

link observed changes to changes in the climate system in some

areas (Volume 2, Chapter 4). To understand the complexity of

the current situation and identify possible solutions with regard

to future developments, human being must be taken into ac-

count as the central driver at all scales (Volume 2, Chapter 1).

Climate change has both direct and indirect impacts on

humans and the environment (Volume 2, Chapter 1). Direct

impacts occur where changes in climatic parameters such as

temperature or precipitation have immediate effects. Indirect

impacts are impacts in which climate change becomes effective

through its influence on another process in the system. In the

case of the impacts of climate change on soils, for example,

there needs to be differentiation between i) direct effects of

temperature on soil-borne processes (such as weathering or

the effects of increased extreme precipitation on soil erosion)

and ii) indirect effects via the climate influence on vegetation

rooted in the ground (where, for example, dead organic mate-

rial influences humus formation) (Volume 2, Chapter 5). In

certain cases the indirect effects of climate change can have

stronger impacts than the direct effects (Volume 2, Chapter 5;


The causes and impacts of climate change are often decou-

pled both temporally and geographically. Humans are both

affected by climate change and drivers of it. The local actions

of every individual affect the global energy balance of the at-

mosphere. Global climate change associated with these effects,

has very different characteristics regionally and locally; it has

multiple consequences that often occur with significant delay.

The same principle applies to climate protection. The effects

of individual contributions to climate protection are not im-

Synthesis

53

mediately discernible either temporally or spatially. Regions

which contribute over-proportionally to climate protection

do not experience a comparably larger reduction in warm-

ing or otherwise reduced climate impacts. This dilemma of

geographical and temporal decoupling of cause and effect is

probably the most salient factor leading to the poor grasp of

the seriousness of global climate change that currently exists.

This, in turn, leads to the unfortunate lack of acceptance of

necessary measures, both in mitigation and adaptation terms,

to deal with climate change. The geographical-temporal de-

coupling of cause and effect also complicates the question

of polluter and damaged parties / beneficiaries as well as the

global responsibility for climate change. On a global level the

societies most vulnerable to climate change are often not the

main polluters, whereas the actual polluters profit from many

of the advantages resulting from climate change. This raises

questions of climate justice (Volume 2, Chapter 1).

The complex impacts of climate change on the human-

environment system can be described in terms of vulnerabil-

ity, resilience, and capacity. The complexity resulting from

the decoupling of causes and impacts, together with the non-

linear interactions across spatial and temporal scales, means

that a systematic approach must be taken to the analysis of

climate impacts. Vulnerability describes the extent to which an

exposed system is susceptible to disruptions or stress; it also re-

fers to how restricted that system is in its ability to cope with or

overcome these challenges. As such, it is a measure of the sensi-

tivity of the human-environment system to the negative effects

of climate change at any given stage; it also describes its abil-

ity or lack of ability to overcome the consequences of climate

change. Vulnerability is counteracted by resilience. Resilience

expresses the ability of an individual, society, or system to cope

with or overcome an adverse influence. The idea of resilience

was based originally on the concept of ecosystems’ ability to

withstand disruptions without changing in structure or col-

lapsing. More recently, the concept of resilience has also been

used with respect to social systems, for example, in the field of

natural hazards and risks. Here, resilience refers to the ability

of individuals or social groups to compensate for external stress

factors and disruptions, resulting from ecological, social or po-

litical influences and to be able to plan in a future-oriented

manner. The nature of vulnerability and resilience implies that

they are mainly used to refer to potentially negative changes

in the system, while possible positive developments leading

potentially to an improved state of the system are neglected.

Therefore, separate reference is often made to the capacity of

a system to pick up and develop a specific impulse toward an

improved state of the system, described as “absorptive capac-

ity”. Here the focus is on capacity building, which then can

contribute to the adaptation to changing conditions in the

sense of adaptive capacity (Volume 2, Chapter 1).

Adaptation to climate change is necessary to cushion

or deter negative impacts and avoid ruptures in the sys-

tem. Despite all the efforts to mitigate a further increase in

the human-induced greenhouse effect, climate change in the

21st century is inevitable; only its scale is still undetermined.

Adaptation is a guiding principle that is essential for survival

and that can contribute to avoiding ruptures in, or a collapse

of, the human-environment system. Adaptation activities are

goal-orientated and aim either to reduce risks or to achieve

positive developmental potential. Mitigation and adaptation

to climate change (Volume 3, Chapter 1) are closely connected

– the need for adaptation becomes greater, the less mitigation

measures take effect. The ability of a system to adapt depends

Figure S.2.1. Interfaces between global drivers system und local / regional human-environmental systems as a response systems between the natural spheres and the anthroposhere

truktur

HydrosphereBd. 2, Kap. 2; Bd. 3, Kap.2

AtmosphereBd. 1, Kap. 2-5

GeosphereBd. 2, Kap. 4

BiosphereBd. 2, Kap. 3; Bd. 3, Kap. 2

PedosphereBd. 2, Kap. 5

ttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuukkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkttttttttttttttttttttttuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

eKap.2

re5

regional human-environment-systems HealthBd. 2, Kap. 6.1; Bd. 3, Kap.4

Social ConcernsBd. 2, Kap. 6.2

Natural HazardsBd. 2, Kap. 6.5

TourismBd. 2, Kap. 6.4; Bd. 3, Kap.4

EconomyBd. 2, Kap. 6.3

InfrastructureBd. 2, Kap. 6.7; Bd. 3, Kap. 3

SettlementBd. 2, Kap. 6.6; Bd. 3, Kap. 5


54

on the one hand on vulnerability, resilience, and capacity, and

on the other hand on the intensity of climate change (Figure

S.2.2). In general, the adaptive capacity of a system needs to be

considered in medium- to long-term time scales; it therefore

possesses, comparable to the sustainability principle, a genera-

tion-spanning dimension (Volume 2, Chapter 1).

The concept of ecosystem services makes it possible to

quantify some of the ecological impacts of climate change and

their effects on society. The concept of ecosystem services – in-

troduced in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – quanti-

fies the services of ecosystems that are provided by nature and

used by humans. Ecosystem services fall into four categories:

1. Provisioning services: products, which are directly removed

from ecosystems (e. g. foodstuffs, drinking water, wood,

combustibles, herbal medicines).

2. Regulating services: such as the regulation of climate and

air quality, reduction of extreme events, and biological pest

control.

3. Cultural services: such as recuperation, experience and edu-

cation in nature, spiritual and aesthetic values.

4. Supporting services: services of ecosystems that are neces-

sary to provide for the first three categories (e. g. photosyn-

thesis, material cycles, and soil accumulation).

As ecosystems react sensitively to changes in climate and as

the services that humans obtain from ecosystems are affected

by these changes, ecosystem services provide a good indicator

with which to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the

human-environment system. Furthermore, (long-term) moni-

toring of ecosystem services provides the possibility of quanti-

fying the indirect effects of climate change that are sometimes

difficult to grasp (Volume 2, Chapter 1; Volume 2, Chapter 3).

S.2.2 Impacts on the Hydrological Cycle

Snow: The snow fall limit has retreated since 1980, and the

change is particularly pronounced in summer. The retreat in

winter is small compared to variability. These developments

are in accordance with the considerably larger increase in air

temperature in summer than in winter (Volume 1, Chapter 3;

Volume 2, Chapter 2). Because of the increase in temperature,

the snowline is projected to retreat by 300 to 600 m by the end

of the century, or approximately 120 m per 1 °C of warming.

The duration of snow cover has decreased in the past de-

cades, particularly at intermediate altitudes (around 1 000

m above sea level). As both the snow fall limit – and conse-

quently the increase in snow pack and snow melt – are temper-

ature-sensitive, a decrease in snow depth is expected at inter-

mediate altitudes due to the continued increase in temperature

(very likely, Volume 2, Chapter 2 and 4). Model calculations

show an average decrease in snow cover duration of 30 days,

for the 1 000–2 000 m altitudinal belt. At low levels (<1 000

m) and high levels (>2 000 m) the decrease will only be for

approximately 15 days. Projections show that the south and

southeast of Austria are particularly affected by the decline,

with a future average duration of 70 days of snow cover. Snow

cover comparable to today’s levels will be found in areas shifted

upwards by about 200 m by the middle of the 21st century

(Volume 2, Chapter 2).

In lower and medium altitudes a climate-induced reduc-

tion in snow avalanches is expected. (Volume 2, Chapter 2

and 4). The decreasing amount of solid precipitation at low-

er-to-medium altitudes leads to reduced levels of fresh snow,

which in turn reduces avalanche activity. At higher altitudes,

levels of fresh snow could increase, although due to chang-

ing temperatures, a shift from powder snow avalanches to wet

Figure S.2.2. Open concept of adaptability, based on the open risk concept. Possible future conditions that may exist in Austria are a function of its adaptability; Source: Coy and Stötter (2013)

adaptability

capacity

resiliencevulnerability

impr

ovem

ent

dete

riora

tion

time

Synthesis

55

snow avalanches can be expected. When looking at changing

avalanche activity, changes in forests must also be considered

(Volume 2, Chapter 3). An increase in forest density at high

altitudes can have a dampening effect on avalanche activity


Glaciers: All surveyed glaciers in Austria have significantly

declined in area and volume in the period since 1980. In the

southern Ötztaler Alps, the largest connected glacier area in

Austria, for example, glacial area has shrunk from 144.2 km2

in 1969 to 126.6 km2 in 1997 to 116.1 km2 in 2006 (Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 2). Between 1969 and 1998 Austrian gla-

ciers lost a total of around 16.6 % of their area (Volume 2,

Chapter 2).

Austrian glaciers have reacted particularly sensitively to

summer temperature during the period of decline since 1980.

It is therefore expected that by the year 2030 the ice volume

and the area of Austrian glaciers will have declined to half

of the mean values of the 1985–2004. In terms of future loss

of glacier mass, the climate scenario chosen plays a quite minor

role, as a substantial part of future loss of mass is a (delayed)

consequence of past climate change. In the most favorable sce-

nario, Austrian glaciers will stabilize at around 20 % of current

ice volume by the end of the 21st century, whereas the extreme

scenario leads to an almost entire melting of glaciers in Aus-

tria (Volume 2, Chapter 2). With rock glaciers, an increase in

temperature at first leads to an acceleration of movement, an

increase in the depth of the summer active layer, and a decrease

in the ice content, that, at some point, causes an acceleration

of movement (Volume 2, Chapter 4).

Runoff: Annual runoff in Austrian streams and rivers will

tend to decrease due to the temperature-related increase in

evaporation. Regionally, a strong decrease in annual runoff is

expected in the south of Austria. Austria-wide projections of

runoff decreases are between 3 and 6 % by the middle of the

21st century and between 8 and 12 % by the end of the cen-

tury. They vary according to the climate scenario selected and

the respective projection model. How far these decreases will

be compensated for or intensified by changes in precipitation

is still unclear because of the high level of uncertainty in pre-

cipitation projections (Volume 2, Chapter 2).

A climate-induced shift in the seasonal runoff character-

istics of Austrian streams and rivers is very likely. Low water

levels during winter in the Alpine region will tend to rise due

to an increase in winter temperature and an earlier start of

snow melt. For summer run-off, a slightly decreasing trend is

expected, which will be considerably more pronounced in the

south (Volume 2, Chapter 2).

The maximum annual flood flow rates have increased

in around 20 % of the catchment areas during the past 30

years. Small catchment areas north of the main Alpine ridge

are particularly affected. Across Austria, winter floods have in-

creased significantly more than summer floods. The influence

of climate change on these events cannot be proven at present

because the increased number of floods over the past decades

still falls within the bounds of natural variability. In future a

temporal shift in the occurrence of floods toward earlier spring

floods and more winter floods, particularly in northern Aus-

tria, is expected (Volume 2, Chapter 2). The damage potential

Figure S.2.3. Observed (green) and estimated (red) surface water temperatures (OF) in lakes for 2050 during the bathing season (June to September). The columns indicate the mean, the lines the maximum and minimum values between 2001 and 2005; the estimates for 2050 are based on a linear trend. Source: Dokulil (2009)Alta

usseer S

ee

Grundlse

e

Hallstätte

r See

Wolfgangse

e

Traunsee

Fuschlse

e

Mondsee

Atterse

e

Weiss

ensee

Millstätte

r See

Ossiach

er See

Wörther S

ee

Wat

er te

mpe

ratu

r (O

F) [°C

]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

mean, max., min. 2001-2005mean, max., min. 2050


56

of heavy precipitation in settlement areas – due particularly

to the inadequate size of sewage networks, which do not have

the capacity to absorb and discharge the volume of precipita-

tion – is estimated to be high (Volume 2, Chapter 6). Due to

the uncertain development of climate extremes (in particular,

heavy precipitation), reliable projections of future changes in

fl oods are not possible to date (Volume 2, Chapter 2).

In the past decades, water temperatures in lakes as well as

streams and rivers have risen and are expected to continue to

rise further. In the period from 2001 to 2005 lake tempera-

tures during the swimming season (June to September) were

0.9 °C (Traun catchment area), 1.3 °C (Carinthian lakes), and

1.7 °C (Ager catchment area) higher than during the 1960–

1989. Th e mean temperature increase across all measurement

stations in fl owing waters since the 1980s is 1.5 °C in sum-

mer and 0.7 °C in winter (Volume 2, Chapter 2). In future, a

further increase in water temperatures is expected, with lakes

more aff ected than fl owing waters. By the middle of the cen-

tury, temperatures during the swimming season are expected

to rise on average by between 1.2 and 2.1 °C in Carinthian

lakes and between 2.2 °C and 2.6 °C in most Salzkammergut

lakes (Figure S.2.3). In fl owing waters an increase in tempera-

ture of 0.7 °C–1.1 °C in summer and 0.4 °C–0.5 °C in winter

is expected by 2050 (Volume 2, Chapter 2).

Groundwater, soil moisture: In most areas of Austria, a

decrease in ground water since the 1960s and a considerable

increase in ground water since the middle of the 1990s have

been observed. Th ese fl uctuations can largely be attributed to

Figure S.2.4. Average values of the water balance for Austria during the period 1960 to 2000. Source: Central Hydrographical Buro, Austri-an Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environement and Watermanagement, Dep. IV/4 Water Balance

Precipitation ~1170 mm

Sum of Evaporation ~516 mm

Evaporation of surface water Unproductive evaporation Productive evaporation Evaporation from agriculture and water use

Foreign inflow ~340 mm

Sum of discharge into neighboring countries ~1000 mm

Subsurface discharge into neighboring countries ~30 mm

Agricultural irrigation ~2 mm

Water withdrawal by industry

~20 mm

Water withdrawal

by households

~8 mm

Wastewater from households ~6mm

Wastewater from industry ~18mm

Total evaporation ~516 mm

Foreign inflow ~340 mm

Total discharge into neighboring countries ~1000 mm

Synthesis

57

natural climate variability and changes in regional ground wa-

ter use. Between 1976 and 2008, a decreasing trend in the an-

nual average ground water levels was observed at 24 % of mea-

suring stations, and an increasing trend at 10 % (Volume 2,

Chapter 2).

In future, average soil moisture content and groundwater re-

newal will decrease moderately. While only very small changes

in soil moisture are expected during the vegetation period un-

til 2050, a slight decrease is expected for the months March to

August during the period 2051 to 2080. Moreover, no large-

scale change is expected in groundwater renewal until the

middle of the century. Different climate scenarios yield differ-

ent results with regard to groundwater renewal for the second

half of the century; especially in the non-alpine areas, projec-

tions vary between +5 % and −30 %. For the south and south-

east of Austria decreases are expected (Volume 2, Chapter 2).

Water balance: The water balance in Austria is currently

characterized by higher water supply than demand. For the

reference period from 1961 to 1990, average annual precip-

itation was between 1 140 and 1 170 mm (mm = liters per

square meter), whereas industrial use was 20 mm, household

use 8 m and agricultural water demand 2 mm (Figure S.2.4).

In future, evaporation (currently 500–520 mm) is expected to

increase, and runoff (currently 650–690 mm) is expected to

decrease slightly. From a water management perspective, there

is no real need to act until the middle of the 21st century, al-

though areas with currently low water resources (particularly

in the east and south of Austria) will need to adapt (Volume 2,

Chapter 2).

Domestic water demand has decreased slightly in the past

decades, and this trend is set to continue in future. This de-

creasing trend is due to more efficient water use in house-

holds and businesses and lower losses in water pipe networks.

While the average Austrian household water consumption was

135 liters per person per day in 2011, specific consumption

will decrease to approximately 120 liters per person per day by

2050 (Volume 2, Chapter 2).

The majority of agricultural water demand in Austria is

rain-fed. However, in the east and in some locations in the

southeast of Austria, water for irrigation is already needed now:

groundwater and to a lesser extent surface water is being used.

As a result of rising temperatures the water demand of agricul-

tural crops will also rise, which means that particularly in the

east and southeast, irrigation demand will increase in the

long run (Volume 2, Chapter 2). Salinization of soils could

occur as a result of increased irrigation (Volume 2, Chapter 5).

S.2.3 Impacts on Topography and Soil

Topography is determined by long-term geomorphological

forces, although short-term forces such as climate factors can

be superimposed. The large Alpine valleys e. g., were essen-

tially shaped by the ice ages during the past 400 000 years;

they are currently undergoing many short-term topographi-

cal changes (e. g., through landslides) which are decisively

influenced by current (and future) climate factors, particu-

larly temperature, radiation, and precipitation. (Volume 2,

Chapter 4).

In addition to natural geomorphic processes, topography in

Austria is also strongly influenced by human activity. Society

changes the natural frequency and magnitude of geomorpho-

logical processes such as mudslides and landslides through, for

instance, land use change or surface modifications (e. g., drain-

age). Moreover, society also shapes and modifies the material

environment, thereby changing process flows in the terrain

(e. g., through the construction of infrastructure or expansion

of land use). Society also steers geomorphic processes (e. g.,

through river engineering, slope drainage, and changing veg-

etation) and can also act as a catalyst (e. g., floods or snow

avalanches caused by malfunctioning of protective structures).

Climate-induced changes in geomorphological processes and

topography take effect in parallel with human influences. The

influence of human and climate factors take effect sometimes

in a reinforcing manner, sometimes in a diminishing manner,

and their effects are often asynchronous (Volume 2, Chap-

ter 4; Volume 2, Chapter 1).

Increasing heavy precipitation, extended precipitation

events, or increased warm air advection during snow cover

can enhance susceptibility to landslides. In this context, the

type of land cover (e. g., forest, arable land, grassland) is of par-

ticular significance. On the whole, human interventions (e. g.,

land use change) are considered to be of greater importance

for future landslide events than climate change. In general,

there are still high levels of uncertainty regarding the future

developments of landslides (Volume 2, Chapter 4; Volume 2,

Chapter 5).

It is assumed that the frequency and magnitude of earth

slides and flows as well as debris flows will increase in future.

In particular, local increases in thunderstorms or extended pre-

cipitation events could lead to a future increase in landslide

and flow and debris flow activity. Furthermore, the climate-

induced decrease in permafrost and the decline of glaciers

(Volume 2, Chapter 2), could lead to an enhanced danger of

mudslides and rock falls as unsecured material becomes uncov-

ered (Volume 2, Chapter 4).


58

In high altitude areas influenced by permafrost, climate

change will lead to an increase in rockfall, rockslide, and

debris flow activity. For most areas – those which are perma-

frost-free – hardly any change in activity is expected. Gener-

ally, in past warm periods in Austria, a shift in maximum rock-

fall activity from spring to summer could be observed. To date,

observations have shown no climate influence on deep-seated

large-scale landslides, such as Bergsturz or large rock falls and

slides (Volume 2, Chapter 4).

In areas above 2 500 m above sea level in Austria, which ac-

counts for approximately 2 % of territory (1 600 km2), perma-

frost has to be reckoned with. It is estimated that an increase

in temperature of 1 °C can cause a retreat of the permafrost

line by approximately 200 m (Volume 2, Chapter 4). Thus,

expected warming would reduce the body of permafrost in the

Austrian Alps and large areas would be free of permafrost in

the future (Volume 2, Chapter 2).

Solifluction (soil flow in periglacial regions) is a slow, down-

hill flowing movement of thawed topsoil on still frozen subsoil

(Volume 2, Chapter 4). The retreat of permafrost due to in-

creased warming in the Alpine region will reduce solifluction

at lower altitudes and increase it in high altitude regions.

Due to the retreat of glaciers (Volume 2, Chapter 2) ero-

sion and consequent sediment-input into flowing waters

will increase in the areas that become exposed. A direct con-

sequence of glacial erosion is high sediment concentration in

flowing waters and sedimentation in lakes, which in the latter

case can lead to land aggradation. On the one hand, the lo-

cal withdrawal of glaciers and the thawing of permafrost may

lead to a significant increase in the potential sediment load and

thus of the solid load discharge into flowing waters. On the

other hand, it must be assumed that the complete disappear-

ance of local glaciers will lead to a decrease in sediment load

in water in the medium term. Furthermore, it is important

to note that the transportation of sediment load in flowing

waters is also significantly influenced by human interactions

such as river regulation and water reservoirs used for drinking

water supply, irrigation purposes, or power plants (Volume 2,

Chapter 4).

If wind speeds increase locally, wind erosion could increase

in future. However, this is also heavily dependent on (changes

in) vegetation and agricultural use (Volume 2, Chapter 4; Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 5).

Climate-induced changes in geomorphic processes and

consequently topography have only a minor effect on ecosys-

tem services. As geological processes react more slowly to a

changing climate than ecological processes (Volume 2, Chap-

ter 3), the former will play only a minor role in the provision

of ecosystem services (Volume 2, Chapter 1) in Austria during

the decades to come (Chapter 2, Volume 4).

As far as soil is concerned, the most evident climate ef-

fects are expected to be on soil life and consequently on

humus accumulation. Soil is described as the uppermost part

of the earth’s crust affected by weathering, in other words,

the upper decimeters that are in direct interaction with the

atmosphere. Many soil processes are dependent on both tem-

perature and moisture – their future development therefore

depends on local changes in both temperature and precipita-

tion. Particularly affected are soil life and processes of humus

decomposition, nutrient availability, and possible changes in

soil structure (Table S.2.1). Dry soils tend to have less diversity

of soil life and less robust populations than moist soils with a

good oxygen supply (Volume 2, Chapter 5).

On the whole, soil reacts slowly to changes in climate.

However, as vegetation reacts considerably faster to changes in

climate (Volume 2, Chapter 3) and co-determines soil devel-

opment – particularly the development of organic substances

in soil – indirect climate effects (Volume 2, Chapter 1) can be

expected to have the main impact on soils in the short- and

medium term (Volume 2, Chapter 5).

Soils influence the carbon budget and consequently

have a direct effect on the climate. The amount of CO2

entering the atmosphere from soils each year (roughly equal

amounts are taken up by soils again), considerably exceeds the

emissions caused by fossil fuels. Preserving the ecological bud-

get of soils is thus an important aspect of climate protection.

Higher temperatures increase mineralization and can lead to a

decrease in organic substances and consequently in the stored

carbon in soils. However, a prerequisite for this is constant

moisture conditions. Dry periods delay humus mineralization

as does freezing of the ground during thick snow packs (Table

S.2.1). Site and land use determine if, and to what extent, the

humus expected to be lost due to rising temperatures can be

compensated for by increased biomass production of vegeta-

tion (e. g., by increased levels of CO2 and longer vegetation

periods, Volume 2, Chapter 3); this still shows high levels of

uncertainty. There is also a research gap regarding the stability

of humus complexes and the role of subsoil in carbon storage


Temperature extremes and dry phases have greater ef-

fects on soil processes than gradual climatic changes. Tem-

perature extremes influence, for example, soil biota more than

gradual changes in average temperature do. Temperature ex-

tremes and dry phases also have a strong influence on turn-

over rates of carbon and nitrogen in soils. They increase during

strong and lengthy freezing and thawing processes in winter

Synthesis

59

(through changes in duration and depth of snow cover) and

also in the case of intense and lengthy drying out of soils, fol-

lowed by heavy precipitation events; this leads to spikes in

GHG emissions directly after such events (Volume 2, Chapter

5).

Drier conditions could bring about local reduction in seep-

age water and groundwater level (Volume 2, Chapter 2) on

water-influenced soils (gley, pseudogley), reducing waterlog-

ging and increasing yields. However, such changes could also

impair the natural dynamics of floodplain and bog soils. Bog

soils, which are a significant carbon reservoir, react in a partic-

ularly sensitive way to increasing temperatures and desiccation


An increase in climatic extremes affects arable soils more

than grassland soils. Erosion of arable land through water

and wind can particularly increase during phases of incomplete

or poor vegetation cover (Volume 2, Chapter 4; Volume 2,

Chapter 5). In future, cultivation techniques and soil man-

agement will become increasingly important and will need to

be adapted to compensate for potential climate-induced prob-

lems. Grassland soils are expected to be more stable, although

they may also be subject to a climate-induced reduction in

humus (Volume 2, Chapter 5). In light of the global questions

about food security and concurrently rising demands on soils

(e. g., through increased use of bioenergy crops), an increase

in nitrogen utilization efficiency in soils could make a positive

contribution (Volume 2, Chapter 5).

Naturally balanced soils will fulfil their functions and

services under changing climatic conditions better than

soils that have been subject to intense human degradation.

Soil protection is therefore not just a means of climate pro-

tection, but also an important contributing factor to climate

adaptation.

Rising temperatures lead to increased CO2 emissions

from forest soils. A temperature increase of 1 °C leads to ap-

proximately 10 % more CO2 being emitted through soil respi-

ration; a temperature increase of 2 °C leads to approximately

20 % more CO2 and N

2O emissions. An increase in disrup-

tions (e. g., through windbreak events and following bark-bee-

tle infestations (Volume 2, Chapter 3) also leads to humus and

Table S.2.1 Assessment of the sensitivity of processes in soils related to climate change. Developed by Geitner for AAR14

Processes Sensitivity Explanations

Related to the mineral constituents

Physical weathering ++ D or I: depending on elevation zone (frequency of freeze / thaw cycles)

Chemical weathering ++ I: with temperature increase (nival / alpine zone)D: under dry conditions

Biological weathering + D or I: with vegetation changes

Oxidation + I: under dry conditions

Reduction + I: under wet conditions

Clay mineral formation + D: under dry conditions

Clay displacement + D: under dry conditions

Podsolization + D: under dry conditions

Calcification + I: under dry and alternate wetting and drying conditionsD: under wet conditions

Related to the organic constituents

Mineralization +++ I: under average conditionsD: under dry or very wet conditions

Humification + D or I: Depending on further factors (e. g. wetness, chemical composition of litter)

Others

Exchange processes (ions) + D: under dry conditions

Aggregate formation + Depending on other conditions

Bioturbation ++ Depending on other conditions

Cryoturbation ++ Depending on duration of frost periods and frequency of freeze / thaw cycles, according to elevation

D = decrease, I = increase, + = moderate, ++ = average, +++ = strong effects expected


60

soil loss through erosion, which again leads to increased CO2

emissions from soil and also to an impairment of hydrological

soil functions (Volume 2, Chapter 5).

To date, fairly little is known about impacts of climate

change on high alpine and urban soils. Climate-induced

change in vegetation – particularly in the region of the current

tree line (Volume 2, Chapter 3) – would also influence humus

quantity and quality in high alpine soils. On the other hand,

higher temperatures would enhance humus depletion, particu-

larly as the organic matter of soils at high altitudes contains

easily degradable components. However, due to the small-scale

differentiation of mountain soils, there is a limited number of

general statements that can be made (Volume 2, Chapter 5). It

is assumed that urban soils are highly at risk of climate change,

as the urban environment per se subjects them to increased

temperatures and reduced water content and natural soil struc-

ture is often missing. However, there are no detailed studies

on the climate sensitivity of urban soils in Austria (Volume 2,

Chapter 5).

S.2.4 Impacts on the Living Environment

In areas with low levels of precipitation, such as north of the

Danube and in eastern and south-eastern Austria, agricultural

yields will decrease. In the cooler areas of Austria with higher

levels of precipitation, however, a warmer climate will increase

the potential yields of agricultural crops. Rainfed summer

crops with low temperature demands, such as spring cereals,

sugar beet, and potatoes will be increasingly subject to heat

stress and drought damage. The potential yield of these crops

will stagnate or decline, particularly on light soils with low wa-

ter storage capacity (Volume 2, Chapter 3). It is possible that

currently rainfed crops will increasingly need to be irrigated in

certain regions (Volume 2, Chapter 2; Volume 2, Chapter 3).

In irrigated areas the water demand for irrigation will increase


The yield potential of thermophilic summer crops such as

maize, soya beans, and sunflowers could increase, as long as

there is sufficient water supply. It should be noted, that the

increased yields during the past decades are primarily due to

progress in agricultural technology, agro-chemical measures,

and plant breeding – and not to climate change. However, in

Austria and Switzerland the inter-annual variability of yields

has increased, which can at least in part be attributed to cli-

mate change (Volume 2, Chapter 3).

Winter crops could also experience an increase in yield po-

tential, as they make better use of winter moisture in soils.

However, in wet locations or regions with high levels of precip-

itation there is danger of waterlogged soils because of increas-

ing precipitation in winter. Winter crops (e. g., winter wheat)

are also at an increased risk from pests and diseases due to

warmer winters (Volume 2, Chapter 3).

A further increase in temperature will favor wine culti-

vation in regions of Austria that currently have less suitable

climate conditions. In the current wine cultivation areas, an

increase in temperature will be particularly favorable for red

wine varieties and the quality of red wine. For white wine,

where acid content is an important quality feature, quality

could improve in colder or new cultivation areas, but could also

decrease in current cultivation regions (Volume 2, Chapter 3).

Fruit crops will be negatively affected by the expected cli-

matic changes. Increased aridity and irrigation demands will be

particularly problematic, as fruit crops need much water and

are more sensitive to heat and drought than vines, for example.

An increase in the amount and intensity of thunderstorm ac-

tivity could increase the danger of crop damage, particularly

hail. In valleys and basins increasing late frost damage, par-

ticularly during flowering, is expected. Furthermore, phases of

extreme weather conditions could cause disruptions in growth

rhythms. Warmer weather conditions in winter, for example,

could lead to a decrease in the frost resistance of fruit trees,

increasing the danger of damage during the next frost (Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 3).

Farm animals also suffer from climate change. Increasing

heat periods can decrease the performance and increase the

risk of disease in farm animals. Increasing heat stress can lead,

for example, to a decline in the milk production of cows or to

a decrease in the size of hens’ eggs. Next to ambient tempera-

ture, humidity and airflow also influences the thermal wellbe-

ing of animals (Volume 2, Chapter 3).

The productivity potential of Austrian forests in moun-

tainous regions and in regions with sufficient precipitation

will increase due to the expected changes in climate. In con-

trast, productivity in eastern and north-eastern areas at low

altitudes and in inner-Alpine basins will decrease due to an

increase in dry periods. Whether potential increases in growth

can actually be achieved in managed forests will depend largely

on the numerous risk factors and the changes in them induced

by climate (Volume 2, Chapter 3). For example, it is expected

that the intensity and frequency of climate-related disturbanc-

es in forest ecosystems will increase under all warming sce-

narios. This is particularly true for occurrences of thermophilic

insects such as bark beetles. Furthermore, new types of dam-

ages through imported or harmful organisms migrating from

southern regions can be expected. Abiotic disturbance factors

such as storms, late and early frosts, and wet snow events may

Synthesis

61

also occur more frequently than previously, which in turn

will amplify damage from biotic disturbances (e. g., by bark

beetles). Intensified disturbance regimes lead to lower wood

production revenues and can impair other ecosystem services

such as the protective function against, for example, rock fall,

landslides and avalanches, and also the carbon storage capabil-

ity of forests (Volume 2, Chapter 3; Volume 2, Chapter 4).

The dry summers of 2003 and 2007 showed that under

certain weather conditions forest fires can also develop rap-

idly and reach significant dimensions in Austria. Due to the

expected warming and increasing likelihood of dry weather

periods in summer, an increase in the frequency and severity

of forest fires is expected in the Alpine region in the future.

Fire is a particular risk for the Alpine region because of the

long regeneration time needed by vegetation following forest

fires and the fact that the latter can reduce or eliminate the

protective function of forests against natural hazards (Volume

2, Chapter 4; Volume 2, Chapter 3).

In Austria the competitive strength of deciduous forests will

increase. Up to a temperature increase of 1 °C, the distribu-

tion of forest communities would not change significantly;

however, a warming of 2 °C would lead to a change in the

potential natural vegetation. This means that in close to 80 %

of Austrian forest area, without forest management, the poten-

tial habitat of beech-, oak-, and beech-fir-spruce forest types

would increase (Volume 2, Chapter 3).

In alpine regions, plants that are adapted to cold conditions

will be displaced by thermophilic species and they themselves

will advance to higher altitudes. The upward shift of species in

all alpine summit regions has been verified across Europe and

could lead to a temporary increase in biodiversity in higher

alpine regions in Austria. Despite warming, cold-adapted veg-

etation still manages to survive in niches, however in the me-

dium term local extinction of cold-adapted species in alpine

vegetation can be expected (Volume 2, Chapter 3).

Peat bogs are heavily affected by climate change. It is esti-

mated that 85 % of peat bogs in Austria will be endangered by a

temperature increase of around 2–3 °C (Volume 2, Chapter 3).

Climate change will affect Austrian fauna. This can al-

ready be seen in species shifts of various animal groups, such

as dragonflies, beetles, and invertebrate freshwater animals.

At the same time, climate-induced habitat loss is expected in

many animal species and species groups, including many en-

demic species (i. e. species that do not occur elsewhere). Spe-

cies habitat shifts not only depend on the reaction of the re-

spective species to climate change, but also on the ability of the

species to migrate and establish itself against other species that

already live in the new habitat (Volume 2, Chapter 3).

Amphibians, due to their specific habitat demands and low

mobility, are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Indi-

rect impacts of climate change (Volume 2, Chapter 1) such

as habitat loss, for example, a possible periodical decrease in

small water bodies, and the loss of wetlands following more

frequent or prolonged dry periods (Volume 2, Chapter 3) are

of highest relevance (Volume 2, Chapter 3) In this context,

projected changes in precipitation distribution are probably

a greater risk factor than changes in temperature (Volume 2,

Chapter 3).

Reptiles are potential winners of climate change. Longer

summer conditions will mean an increase in reproductive suc-

cess for reptiles. Successful reproduction of non-native reptile

species (such as species of turtle) in the wild has already been

observed on occasion (Volume 2, Chapter 3).

A shift toward warm-water-loving fish species is expect-

ed. Warming of 2.5 °C (Volume 2, Chapter 2) could result

in an altitudinal shift of fish regions by 70 m and relocation

of fish regions upstream by approximately 30 km (Volume 2,

Chapter 3). However, this theoretical relocation upstream will

not be possible in many cases, as upstream habitats are often

not suitable for the fish. Accordingly, a loss of trout and gray-

ling waters can be expected overall. Over half of native fish

species are already on endangered species lists; the additional

pressures of climate change and also continued expansion

of hydropower will further endanger native fish fauna (Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 3).

Climate change not only impacts individual plant and

animal species, but also strongly influences their interac-

tion in ecosystems. The relationship between predator and

prey, parasite and host, and plant and pollinator could change

as a result of changes in future climate. A temporal decoupling

of processes, such as the flowering time of plants and stage of

development of pollinators or a geographical “drifting apart”

of habitats (low overlap of habitats of interacting species in

the future) could have a strong influence on ecosystems (Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 3).

On the whole, ecosystems with long development periods

are particularly affected by climate change. In Austria these

include forests, habitats above the tree line, and moorland.

Because of these slow development periods relative to climate

change, the ability of such ecosystems to adapt to changes in cli-

mate is limited. The resulting climate vulnerability affects both

plants and animals in such ecosystems (Volume 2, Chapter 3).


62

S.2.5 Impacts on Humans

The increase in heat waves leads to rising mortality rates.

Temperature increase – in particular heat waves – probably

has the most serious direct effects on human health (Figure

S.2.5). Heat burdens the human organism and can lead to

death, particularly where health is poor. Cardiovascular prob-

lems, especially in older people, but also in infants or the

chronically ill, are increasingly being observed, particularly

following dehydration. A regionally dependent temperature

exists at which the mortality rate is at its lowest; beyond this

temperature mortality increases by 1–6 % for every 1 °C in-

crease in temperature (very likely, high confidence, Volume 2,

Chapter 6; Volume 3, Chapter 4). In particular, older people

and young children have shown a significant increase in the

risk of death above this optimum temperature. To date, little

is known about adaptation possibilities and speed of adapta-

tion to higher mean temperatures. Heat waves particularly af-

fect people in urban areas as they are intensified by the urban

heat island effect (higher turnover of radiation energy and heat

accumulation) and potentially prolonged as well as enhanced

in large cities. Nocturnal cooling is also considerably lower

in urban than in rural areas, which affects nocturnal recovery

phases (Volume 2, Chapter 6). During the heat wave in 2003,

between 180 and 330 heat-related deaths were registered in

Austria. Precipitation-induced extreme events (floods, land-

slides etc.) increase the risk of injury or death. The risk of epi-

demics, often associated with floods in emerging or developing

countries, is less of a problem in Austria due to high levels of

hygiene.

Indirect climate impacts on human health due to the spread

of non-endemic animal and plant species is expected. Patho-

gens transferred by blood-sucking insects and ticks play a par-

ticularly important role, as not only the agents themselves, but

also the vectors’ (insects and ticks) activity and distribution are

dependent on climatic conditions. Newly introduced patho-

gens (viruses, bacteria and parasites, and also allergenic plants

and fungi such as, for example, ragweed (Ambrosia artemisi-ifolia) and the oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea proces-sionea), and new vectors like the tiger mosquito (Stegomyia albopicta) can establish themselves, and existing pathogens can

spread (or disappear) regionally. A shift in the tick popula-

tion to higher regions can already be observed. Rodents act

as important vector carriers and reservoirs, and their distribu-

Figure S.2.5. Direct and indirect impact chainsinfluencing pathways of climate change affecting health. Source: adapted from Confalonieri et al. (2007); McMichael et al. (2004)

Copyright: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 8.1. Cambridge University Press.

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Synthesis

63

tion and populations shifts with climate change. As complex

predator-prey relationships are involved in this process, it is

diffi cult to make concrete predictions about future develop-

ments. Among the illnesses that might increase in frequency

are meningitis, transmitted by ticks and other vectors, yellow

fever, dengue, malaria, leischmania, hanta virus, and fl u-like

illnesses. Pathogens that are also transmitted via drinking wa-

ter and food (e. g., salmonella) are temperature-dependent and

can spread further as a result of higher average temperatures


Health eff ects due to climate change are closely linked

to social conditions. Usually the coincidence of several fac-

tors (e. g., low income, low level of education, low social

capital, precarious working and living conditions, unemploy-

ment, limited possibilities to take action) makes less privileged

population groups particularly vulnerable to climate change

impacts. Poorer people are particularly vulnerable to climate

change due to the location of their apartments and houses in

settlement areas (e. g., in dense areas with low levels of green

areas, areas at risk of fl ooding) and in particular due to the

structural condition of the buildings they live in; poorer peo-

ple also have fewer possibilities of adaptation (e. g., to increas-

ing heat waves) and health protection. In the face of rising

energy prices, the weakening and shortening of cold seasons

(fewer heating days) can be seen as a relieving factor for vulner-

able social groups (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

Although women frequently act in a more climate friendly

manner than men, they are often – even in Austria – more af-

fected by climate change. During the heat wave in 2003, con-

siderably more women died than men (across all age groups)

in Europe (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

Climate-induced migration pressure on Austria from

developing and emerging countries will increase. Th is is

largely due to the global imbalance between polluters, namely,

the leading per capita GHG emitters (industrialized countries)

and the people most vulnerable to and aff ected by climate im-

pacts (developing countries) (Volume 2, Chapter 6; Volume 2,

Chapter 1). Whether increased migration pressure will lead

to a higher number of immigrants will, however, depend on

political responses (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

Compared to the rest of Europe, direct climate impact

costs close to the average are expected for Austria (Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 6). Th e expected high variability in precipita-

tion will primarily aff ect agriculture and forestry and, to a less-

er extent also, energy and water management in eastern and

south-eastern parts of the country (Volume 2, Chapter 2; Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 3). Th e potential increase in extreme precipi-

tation events and their indirect consequences, such as fl oods

and landslides or avalanches, have high damage potential for

infrastructure, particularly in the alpine region, hilly regions

and in several river valleys (Volume 2, Chapter 2; Volume 2,

Chapter 4). It is important to note that an absolute estimate

Figure S.2.6. Weather and climate related damage in Austria 1980 to 2010. Copyright: Munich Re Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE (2014)

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1981

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1983

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1989

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1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

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2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

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64

of climate impact costs is difficult, as there needs to be a con-

sideration not only of changes in the quality and quantity of

goods and services but also of the effects on ecosystem services

which have no “market value” as such (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

Total economic damage due to extreme weather events

has strongly increased in Austria in the past years. On the

basis of insurance data, total damages due to extreme weather

events in Austria between 1980 and 2010 are estimated at

€ 10.6 billion (in 2013 prices, Figure S.2.6). It should be not-

ed that both the quantity and intensity of weather events and

the increasing exposure of assets to extreme weather events are

responsible for the growing economic costs. Moreover, due to

strong settlement growth in risk regions, the damage potential

has risen considerably in the past decades.

During the period 2001 to 2010, certain events were par-

ticularly cost-intensive: the floods in 2002 (around € 3.7 bil-

lion), 2005 (almost € 0.6 billion), and 2013 (almost € 0.7 bil-

lion), with a number of heavy winter storms each incurring

damage of several hundred millioneuros. Note that these fig-

ures include only the costs of direct damage incurred through

reconstruction and repairs; the indirect costs of the knock-on

effects of such weather events were not considered. Further-

more, much damage from small and slow-onset events (e. g.,

droughts) is not considered. This means that total economic

damages from weather events should be considerably higher

than the values cited here (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

It is highly likely that winter tourism in Austria will be

negatively affected by climate change. Winter warming and

the associated shortening of the season and disruptions to it, as

well as the low snow reliability at lower altitudes and in eastern

parts of the country, will negatively affect winter tourism in its

current form. Furthermore, increased dependence on water-

and energy-intensive artificial snowmaking can be expected in

all regions of Austria (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

Both spa and recreational tourism could profit from increas-

ing temperatures and lower precipitation frequency in future.

Summer tourism especially will profit from climate change

and Austria could position itself as a “summer freshness” resort

particularly for Mediterranean countries. However, this poten-

tial would have to be utilized accordingly, and it is not yet clear

how far these opportunities will materialize in future. Increases

in summer tourism are unlikely to be able to compensate for

losses in winter tourism (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

Altogether, city tourism appears to be fairly robust in cli-

mate change terms. Effects are expected inasmuch as the activ-

ities of city tourists will center more on green areas, parks, and

gardens and courtyard restaurants, while non-air-conditioned

buildings could be avoided in summer. Furthermore, a shift in

the number of visitors from summer to spring and autumn is

expected (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

With regard to energy demand, climate change-induced

energy savings on heating will most probably significantly

surpass additional energy demand for cooling (Volume 2,

Chapter 6). In Austria, around 60 % of electricity demand is

covered by hydropower. In future, a slight reduction in hydro-

power production is expected, and production will decrease in

summer and increase in winter, due to climate. Current projec-

tions vary in their estimates of changes in annual production

by the end of the century from ±5 % to −15 %. With regard to

cooling water demand for power plants, regional and seasonal

constraints are possible, for example, in summer for catch-

ments without any glacial / nival buffers. Thermal plants lo-

cated on larger rivers (Drau, Inn, Mur, Danube) should not be

subject to any future usage constraints (Volume 2, Chapter 2).

Settlement areas that are not endangered by natural

hazards will shrink. Currently around 400 000 buildings in

Austria are located in flood-endangered regions. Settlement ar-

eas are expected to continue to expand into flood-endangered

regions, unless restrictions are imposed by planners (Volume

2, Chapter 6). Furthermore, a climate-induced expansion of

flood zones must be expected (Volume 2, Chapter 2). Expan-

sions of settlement areas will be complicated, particularly in

Alpine valleys, as there will be an expansion both in flood

zones in the valleys and on slope areas that are endangered

by landslides (Volume 2, Chapter 2; Volume 2, Chapter 4;


Energy and transport infrastructures demonstrate a high

level of exposure to climate change, particularly as they are

often located in exposed areas. Due to the network structure,

an interruption at a single point can often lead to large-scale

service disruptions. Transport infrastructures are very likely to

be affected by extreme precipitation events – currently more

than three-quarters of all damage – from geomorphic process-

es triggered by extreme precipitation (e. g., landslides includ-

ing earth flows and slides, rock falls and debris flows, undercut

of river banks, snow avalanches affect transport infrastructure.

The extent of direct damage as a result of future extreme events

depends on the scenario; in any case, the indirect damages and

related costs can be expected to be considerably higher than

the direct costs (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

Through cascading effects, weather-induced disruptions

to energy infrastructure can lead to large-scale “black-outs.”

On the one hand, danger comes from the physical damage

caused by landslides and floods (Volume 2, Chapter 2; Vol-

ume 2, Chapter 4; Volume 2, Chapter 6). Heat waves can lead

to network problems, and heat can cause problems in energy

Synthesis

65

production (low water, reduced supply of cooling water, reach-

ing allowed temperature limits) and to trans-alpine transmis-

sion lines toward Italy (high energy demand and low power

plant productivity in southern Europe), which are particularly

strained by simultaneously rising energy demand in Austria

(cooling energy and irrigation) (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

S.3 Climate Change in Austria: Mitigation and Adaptation

S.3.1 Climate Change Mitigation and Adap-tation

Global emission reduction requirements. Global GHG

emissions to date continue to rise along the path of the “busi-

ness-as-usual” (BAU) scenario. If this trend continues, emis-

sions will have doubled by mid-century. Stabilizing global an-

nual mean temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the

century (compared to pre-industrial levels) will require global

GHG emissions reductions of at least 50 % by mid-century

compared with present levels – and up to 90 % in industrial-

ized countries (Volume 3, Chapter 1).

The change in the annual global mean temperature of

4 °C and above, which is to be expected in a BAU scenario, is

equivalent to the transition from the ice age to the interglacial

period. Compared to the past 10 000 years in which human

civilizations have emerged, a 4 °C warmer planet will have

consequences for nature and humanity that will be almost

impossible to control. Although warming of 2 °C would also

bring significant changes, it can be seen as a threshold for the

avoidance of catastrophic consequences (Volume 1, Chapter 1;


Both mitigation and adaptation measures are essential for

any given global temperature stabilization level. Mitigation of

GHG emissions requires both technological change, such as,

for example, efficiency gains, and behavioral change to reduce

resource use and the resulting emissions per unit of activity.

The aim is to reduce climate change by managing its driving

forces. Adaptation to climate change on the other hand, in-

cludes initiatives and measures that reduce the vulnerability

to, or increase the resilience of, human-environmental systems

against acute or expected impacts of climate change, for ex-

ample, flood prevention measures or the cultivation of better

adapted plant species.

Determined and vigorous emission mitigation measures are

necessary to reach any climate stabilization target. Complete

implementation of the voluntary emission reduction pledges

specified in the Cancun and the Copenhagen Accords corre-

spond to a path that will lead to a global warming of more

than 3 °C (with a 20 % likelihood of more than 4 °C) by the

end of the century (see Figure S.3.1).

On a global level there is significant mitigation potential in

energy production, transportation, buildings, industry, agri-

culture, forestry, and waste management. These are described

in the respective chapters of the full AAR14 Report (see Vol-

ume 3) in more detail.

Within the framework of the European “Burden Sharing

Agreement” in implementing the Kyoto Protocol, Austria

committed to reducing GHG emissions by 13 % (period 2008

to 2012, relative to 1990 levels). However, and in contrast to

the majority of other EU member states (including Germany,

the United Kingdom, France and Sweden), GHG emissions in

Austria increased considerably. Consequently, Austria was un-

able to fulfil its Kyoto targets by domestic emission reductions.

Formal compliance was achieved with the purchase of about

80 Mt CO2-eq. of emission permits on the global market at a

cost of roughly € 500 million.

The central pillar of European climate policy is the

European Climate and Energy Package, which compris-

Figure S.3.1. Global mean surface temperature anomalies (°C) relative to the average temperature of the average of the first decade of the 20th century, historical development, and four groups of trends for the future. Two IPCC SRES scenarios without emission reductions (A1B and A1F1), which show temperature increases to about 5 °C or just over 3 °C to the year 2100, and four new emission scenarios, which were developed for the IPCC AR5 (RCP8, 5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6), 42 GEA emission reduction scenarios and the range of IPCC AR5 scenarios which show the tem-perature to stabilize in 2100 at a maximum of +2 °C Sources: IPCC SRES (Nakicenovic et al. 2000; IPCC WG I 2014 and GEA 2012)1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Historical evolutionH

RCP 2.6

RCP 4.5

RCP 6.0

RCP 8.5

Dev

iatio

n fro

m th

e gl

obal

mea

n s

urfa

ce te

mpe

ratu

re (°

C)

GEA

IPCC SRES A1Fl

IPCC SRES A1B

IPCC AR5 430-480 ppm CO2-eq.-range


66

es the three central goals of i) reducing of GHG emissions

by 20 %, ii) increasing the share of renewables in final en-

ergy consumption to 20 %, and iii) increasing energy in-

tensity by 20 % (“20-20-20 targets”) by 2020 in relation to

2005. The Climate and Energy Package is supplemented by

a range of further measures and directives (European emis-

sions trading, energy efficiency, promotion of renewable

energies, eco design, energy performance of buildings, com-

bined heat and power; Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3,

Chapter 6).

In February 2011 the European Council approved the

plan to reduce the European Union (EU) GHG emissions

by 80–95 % by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels) in order to

limit dangerous climate change and keep the average increase

in temperature below 2 °C (compared to pre-industrial levels).

Several European countries (the United Kingdom, Denmark,

Finland, Portugal and Sweden) have committed themselves to

concrete emission reduction targets for 2050. To date, Aus-

tria has set only short-term climate and energy reduction

targets for the period up to 2020 (Volume 3, Chapter 1; Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 6).

The measures taken so far in Austria are insufficient

to meet the commensurate contribution expected from

Austria to achieve the global 2 °C stabilization target. To

achieve targets set in the EU climate and energy package by

2020, it is estimated that Austrian emissions need to be re-

duced by 14 Mt CO2-eq. compared to a reference scenario.

This comparably small reduction could be reached, for ex-

ample, by implementing a package of measures for techno-

logical options focusing on energy efficiency, which would

require an annual investment volume of € 6.3 billion in the

period 2012 to 2020. In addition to the mitigation effect,

these measures would result in an increase in economic out-

put by approximately € 9.5 billion and would generate around

80 000 additional jobs. At the same time the resulting energy

savings would amount to € 4.3 billion in 2020 (using conser-

vative assumptions regarding future energy prices; Volume 3,

Chapter 1).

Austria has a considerable shortfall with respect to en-

ergy intensity improvement. In contrast to the EU average,

energy intensity has remained relatively constant in Austria

during the past two decades (energy use per unit GDP; see

Figure S.3.2). In comparison, energy intensity in the EU28

has declined by 29 % since 1990 (e. g., by 23 % in the Nether-

lands, 30 % in Germany, and 39 % in the United Kingdom).

However, at least a part of the improvements in Germany and

the United Kingdom can be attributed to the relocation of

energy-intensive production to other countries. With regard

to emission intensity (GHG emissions per unit of energy)

Austria, where improvements reflect the growth in renewable

energy since 1990, and the Netherlands are the countries with

the largest improvements. Together, these two factors deter-

mine the GHG emissions intensity of GDP, which has de-

clined in both Austria and the EU28 as a whole since 1990. In

other words, GHG emissions have grown at a slower rate than

GDP. The comparison with the EU28 shows quite clearly that

Austria has to catch up considerably in energy intensity terms


Climate change causes high costs at both the global and

European level. Global damages attributed to climate change

are well beyond € 100 billion per year and could even be be-

yond a trillion per year. In Europe, costs of damages due to

extreme weather events in 2080 are estimated at between € 20

billion (for a global warming of 2.5 °C) and € 65 billion (for

a global warming of 5.4 °C and large sea-level rise). However,

these cost estimates are subject to many uncertainties and do

not include components that are difficult to quantify in mon-

etary terms such as, for example, the loss of unique habitats.

As for most countries, detailed studies on the costs of climate

change in Austria to date are available only for selected sectors

and regions (Volume 3, Chapter 6).

Despite existing uncertainties as to the specific extent

of climate change impacts for different regions and sectors,

early planning and implementation of specific adapta-

tion measures is crucial. Any delay reduces the options for

successful adaptation and increases related costs. Adapta-

tion measures can alleviate the negative impacts of cli-

mate change somewhat, but they cannot fully offset them

(medium confidence). For foresightful adaptation plan-

ning and implementation a broad range of measures can be

taken by affected citizens, municipalities / regions, and at

the federal level, or by private and public institutions; these

include capacity building, technology-oriented measures,

or changes in cultivation (Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3,

Chapter 6).

Initially “National Adaptation Programs of Action” (NAPA)

were the primary supporting instrument for the states most

vulnerable to climate change at the international level, under

the auspices of UNCCD (starting in 1994) and UNFCCC

(since 2001). Without implementation of adaptation mea-

sures, climate change-induced damages in developing coun-

tries are roughly estimated to amount to between € 25 and 70

billion in 2030. In contrast, current cumulative financial sup-

port from industrialized countries for adaptation in develop-

ing countries under the UNFCCC amounts to less than € 0.8

billion (Volume 3, Chapter 1).

Synthesis

67

Adaptation has been on the agenda at the European level

since 2005 and has been integrated into the Second Europe-

an Climate Change Program (ECCP II). With its green and

white books on adaptation, the European Commission (EC)

has taken the first steps toward increasing the resilience of the

EU to climate change. While the green book argues for the

necessity of adaptation at the European level, the white book

presents a framework for action within which the EU and

its member states should prepare for the impacts of climate

change. The EU adaptation strategy was enacted in spring

2013 (Volume 3, Chapter 1).

European activities at the political level, such as the pub-

lication of the green and white books on adaptation, but also

new insights from research have prompted a number of Eu-

ropean states to develop national climate change adaptation

strategies. To date 14 European countries (Belgium, Denmark,

France, Germany, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway,

Austria, Portugal, Switzerland, Spain, and the United King-

dom) have enacted an adaptation strategy. In 2012 Austria

adopted a national adaptation strategy specifically to cope

with the consequences of climate change. The effectiveness

of this strategy will have to be evaluated in principle by how

successful individual sectors, or rather policy areas, will actu-

ally be in developing appropriate adaptation strategies and in

their implementation. An evaluation, for instance by regular

surveys of the effectiveness of adaptation measures, already

implemented by other countries, does not yet exist in Austria


Overall, studies on the costs of climate adaptation measures

both in Europe and in Austria cover selected sectors and re-

gions. Consequently, cost ranges are large, and further research

is required to provide a better basis for cost / benefit estimates.

As both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change

are required, coordination is needed, for instance with re-

gard to the different time frames involved. Insufficient mitiga-

tion leads to a need for massive adaptation, which increasingly

cannot be managed with “soft” or “green” measures, but will

rather require grey / technical and more cost-intensive mea-

sures. Conversely, as adaptation measures can be CO2-emis-

sions intensive, these activities need to be coordinated with

mitigation measures, so that they are supported rather than

counteracted (Volume 3, Chapter 1).

The long useful life spans of infrastructural installations

can lock in emission-intensive development paths for de-

cades (lock-in effect). Investments in production processes,

transport systems, energy use, and transformation should

be screened with regard to lock-in effects, as existing capital

stocks impede and increase the costs of mitigation measures

Figure S.3.2. Development of the GHG emission intensity of the GDP and the embedded relative importance of energy intensity (energy use per PJ GDP) in Austria and the 28 member states of the EU (upper panel). When combining this GHG emission indicator per GDP with the clear upward development of the GDP (lower panel), Austria shows an increase of GHG emissions during that period (+5 %) while emissions ��!!��<�#�� $�# �� %�&��_��

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Inde

x 19

90=1

00

GHG EmissionsAustriaImpact of Energy Intensity (Energy / GDP)and Emissions Intensity (Emissions / Energy)

Energy-Intensity

Emissions Intensity

TotalIntensity

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Inde

x 19

90=1

00

Energy-Intensity

Emissions Intensity

GDP

Emissions

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201240

60

80

100

120

Inde

x 19

90=1

00

GDP

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201240

60

80

100

120

Inde

x 19

90=1

00 Emissions

GHG EmissionsEU-28Impact of Energy Intensity (Energy / GDP)and Emissions Intensity (Emissions / Energy)

TotalIntensity

TotalIntensity

TotalIntensity

GHG EmissionsAustriaImpact of Total Intensity (Emissions / GDP)and GDP

GHG EmissionsEU-28Impact of Total Intensity (Emissions / GDP)and GDP


68

over the entire useful life (Volume 1, Chapter 5; Volume 3,

Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chapter 6).

Beyond creating an environment that is conducive to

transformation, eliminating barriers is a core and crucial

field of activity. This topic is also gaining importance inter-

nationally, and is embedded in theoretical-conceptual discus-

sions on developing an appropriate framework for an environ-

ment that is conducive to transformation.

It is a fact that, despite well-founded studies on climate im-

pacts, appropriate action to protect the climate and to adapt

to climate change has not yet been taken, either internation-

ally or in Austria. This is attributable in particular to barriers.

In Austria, the following barriers have been identified (high

confidence).

1. Institutional barriers: Due to the complex sectoral and fed-

eral split of competences, existing administrative structures

are unsuitable for effectively dealing with climate change.

The short time horizons of elected political decision makers

– short relative to the comparatively slow, but steady pro-

cesses of climate change – are also a barrier. International

framework conditions also play an important role.

2. Economic barriers: In many individual economic decisions

self-interest dominates collective wellbeing. When climate

impacts are not, or only insufficiently, factored into prices

or market rules, markets fail to solve the problem of climate

change. Furthermore, so-called rebound-effects can take ef-

fect when cost savings resulting from increased energy ef-

ficiency lead to higher energy demand.

3. Social barriers: Households and companies demonstrate a

discrepancy between environmental awareness and action

actually taken. This is often due to a lack of confidence that

individual action can make a relevant contribution on the

aggregate level.

4. Uncertainty and insufficient knowledge: Differing opinions

on reciprocal influences between natural, technical, and

social systems (e. g., the extent to which technological op-

tions can solve the climate problem) as well as contradic-

tory news coverage, dampen the willingness for meaningful

action.

Examples of approaches for overcoming these barriers include

a comprehensive administrative reform to make it fit for the

purpose or the formation of new price structures in which

the costs of products and services reflect their climate change

impacts, as well as corresponding regulatory frameworks, a

stronger integration of people from, for instance, civil society

and academia in decision-making processes, targeted increase

of climate and environmental knowledge, and the closing of

knowledge gaps.

S.3.2 Agriculture and Forestry, Hydrology, Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Climate change is a particular challenge for the management,

use, and protection of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and

for the sustainable management of the key resource, water.

These challenges vary from affected system to system – from

almost exclusively natural ecosystems and protected areas to

intensively used agro-ecosystems.

The land system is characterized by close links between

social, economic, geomorphological, climatic, and ecologi-

cal factors. Numerous climate-relevant systemic feedbacks

exist between agriculture and forestry, water manage-

ment and protection, and the preservation of ecosystems

and biodiversity. Because of these systemic effects, changes

in one area, such as economy and society, can impact many

other areas (Figure S.3.3; Volume 2, Chapter 3; Volume 3,

Chapter 2).

In this context a measure to reduce GHG emissions – for

example, increasing forest areas and stocking density in order

to sequester carbon (C) – can lead to (positive or negative) ef-

fects on i) productive capacity (such as agricultural and forest

production) and other ecosystem services (such as water reten-

tion capacity or protection against avalanches or landslides),

ii) biodiversity, iii) the risk of damaging events (windfall, bark

beetle infestations) to forests and iv) climate protection itself

(e. g. indirect land-use effects). These interdependencies can

also have a major effect on the GHG emissions reduction po-

tential of a particular measure. This is particularly relevant for

the potential GHG reductions associated with the substitu-

tion of bioenergy for fossil energy which can be substantially

affected by systemic changes in land use (e. g., land-use change

resulting from an expansion of cultivated area).

Considering all relevant feedbacks is a major scientific chal-

lenge, yet crucial for the development of robust strategies to

deal with climate change.

Agriculture can reduce GHG emissions and strengthen

carbon sinks in many ways. For any given level of agricul-

tural production, the largest potentials are related to ruminant

feed, fertilization practices, reduction of nitrogen losses, and

increase of nitrogen efficiency (very likely). Sustainable strate-

gies to reduce GHG emissions in agriculture require resource-

conserving and efficient cultivation concepts including eco-

logical agriculture, precision agriculture, and plant breeding

that preserves genetic diversity.

Synthesis

69

Between 1990 and 2010, climate-relevant emissions from

the agricultural sector fell by 12.9 % in Austria. This was due

initially to a reduction in the number of animals (until 2005)

and then (2008 to 2010) to a reduction in the use of nitro-

gen fertilizer. During the same time period the number of pigs

and cattle increased again, which led to an increase in emis-

sions from ruminant digestion and manure. With emissions at

7.5 Mt CO2-eq. in 2010, agriculture was responsible for 8.8 %

of Austria´s total GHG emissions (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Increased production of agricultural bioenergy can contrib-

ute to GHG reductions if implemented as part of a strategy for

the integrated optimization of food and energy production as

well as through “cascade utilization” of biomass. (This strategy

proposes optimizing the integrated use of biomass as a raw

material and as an energy carrier.) The potential of agricultural

areas to reduce GHGs can be increased through an integrated

optimization of crop rotation, animal husbandry, and biomass

utilization for food, fiber, and energy production. At the same

time, energy and water balances and biodiversity preservation

need to be considered systematically (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Adaptation measures in the agricultural sector can be im-

plemented at varying rates. Within a few years measures such

as improved evapotranspiration control on crop land (e. g., ef-

ficient mulch cover, reduced tillage, wind protection), more ef-

ficient irrigation methods, cultivation of drought or heat-resis-

tant species or varieties, heat protection in animal husbandry,

a change in cultivation and processing periods, as well as crop

rotation, frost protection, hail protection, and risk insurance

are all feasible (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

In the medium term, feasible adaptation measures include

soil and erosion protection, humus build up in the soil, soil

conservation practices, water retention strategies, improve-

ment of irrigation infrastructure and equipment, warning,

monitoring, and forecasting systems for weather-related risks,

breeding stress-resistant varieties, risk distribution through

diversification, increase in storage capacity as well as animal

breeding and adjustments to stable equipment and to farming

technology (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

In principle, adaptation measures in the agricultural sec-

tor can be decided upon or mandated at the level of the farm

or higher levels (private / public forums); implementation,

however, always needs to take place at farm level. Adaptation

measures can be more or less autonomous, for instance, when

climate change influences the phenology of plants – that is,

Figure S.3.3. Land systems are characterized by intensive systemic feedbacks between different components such as the society, the economy, climate and climate change, ecosystems, etc. Activities to reduce GHG emissions or to adapt to climate change therefore often cause numer-ous additional effectsimpacts. Source: Adapted from GLP (2005); MEA (2005); Turner et al. (2007)

Settlements & Infrastructures

Cropland ecosystems, cropping

Grasslands, grazing

Forest ecosystems, forestry

Unused or (almost) natural ecosystems

Water

Changes in climate, atmosphere and the

environment

Greenhouse gas emissions

Products (food, timber, energy, etc.)

Biodiversity

Non-productive ecosystem services

Socioeconomic change, political measures

States & outputs Land, land use, water use


70

when there are temporal changes in the annual cycle – that

will affect production-related measures. Adaptation measures

can also be the result of a conscious choice (planned) among

various options, for example, changing crop rotations, type of

cultivation, or soil management. From a societal perspective

it makes sense to consider not only the economic “benefits”

and “costs” of adaptation measures, but to evaluate them in

terms of their contribution to sustainable land management

and GHG reductions (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

The type of forest management and the rate of wood use

have a large influence on the carbon cycle. Until 2003 Aus-

trian forests were a significant net CO2 sink; since then, this

function has decreased and in some years has been close to

zero. The sink function of the forests up to 2003 was due to

both growth in forest area and an increase in stored carbon

per area unit. With the exception of the past ten years, car-

bon stores have increased significantly over the past decades

as felling has been continuously lower than growth. More

recent decreases in the carbon sink can be explained by the

significant increase in harvests after 2002 and a series of large-

scale disturbance events (storms, bark beetles). Furthermore

the calculation method was changed: for the first time changes

in soil carbon (litter layer and mineral soil) were incorpo-

rated, showing soils to be a slight carbon source (Volume 3,

Chapter 2).

The GHG emission balance of forest biomass depends heav-

ily on systemic effects in the forest sector. Interactions must be

considered between the amount of wood harvested, the carbon

sink function of the forest, and the accumulated carbon stock

that, depending on thwe period under consideration, yields dif-

ferent net GHG emissions (Figure S.3.4, Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Replacing emission-intensive resources or construction el-

ements in long-living products, particularly buildings, with

wood can contribute to increased carbon storage in products

and to total GHG reductions. With regard to the GHG bal-

ance, the best results are yielded by an integrated optimiza-

tion of forestry, including forest management, use of wood

for long-living products, and use of by-products for energy,

such as wood residues and wood waste from production and

products at the end of their lifetime. In many cases, cascad-

ing use of biomass in forestry is an ecologically effective use

strategy. Depending on the location, type of tree species, eco-

nomic conditions etc., the use of wood residues (i. e., indus-

trial roundwood, harvest residues) as fuel can make sense. A

utilization plan of this kind is in effect in large parts of Austria


As forestry requires long-term planning, adaptation to

climate change is a particular challenge. Despite consider-

able uncertainties, decisions need to be taken today that are

appropriate for the new climate conditions. An “appropriate”

strategy in forest management would be one that provides the

sectors agents with sufficient leeway for action to deal with

unexpected developments.

Particular challenges would be uncertainties pertaining to

the regional distribution of changes, particularly for extreme

weather events, and the risk of insect pests and fungi that are

harmful to forests.

The challenges of climate change for forestry vary greatly

from region to region. In regions where the productivity of

forests is currently limited by the length of the vegetation pe-

riod, climate change will increase productivity. This is true for

large parts of mountain forests and areas that are above the

current tree line. Regions, mainly in south-eastern and east-

ern parts of Austria, that are today subject to drought-related

problems and related insect damage will become more difficult

to manage in future (Volume 3, Chapter 2). The most sensi-

Figure S.3.4. Total Austrian GHG emissions (including sources and sinks from land use, land-use change and forestry, LULUCF) contrasted with LULUCF emissions only. Source: National Inventory Report, Anderl et al. (2012)

-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

[Mio. t CO2-eq./y]

total GHG (inl. LULUCF)

LULUCF

Synthesis

71

tive areas are Norwegian spruce stands located in lowlands and

pure spruce forests which serve a protective function in moun-

tain regions. The adaptation measures in the forest sector are

associated with considerable lead times (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

The resilience of forests to risk factors as well as the

adaptability of forests can be enhanced. The choice of tree

species and rotation period is an important parameter for ad-

aptation strategies particularly to reduce the risk of damaging

events, although interactions with the carbon sink function of

forests need to be considered (Volume 3, Chapter 2). Further-

more, small-scale silviculture leading to heterogeneous forest

structures is considered to be a suitable adaptation means. A

survey has shown that managers of forest enterprises are al-

ready aware of the relevance of climate change for forestry.

Over 85 % of managers of large forest enterprises have indi-

cated that they have already implemented climate change ad-

aptation measures. In contrast, owners of small forests have

not reacted much to date (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Successful adaptation of water management to climate

change can be ensured by means of integrative, interdisciplin-

ary approaches. Adaptation measures in the areas of floods and

low water, such as land-use change in the watershed, can con-

tribute to GHG reductions by carbon sequestration. Changes

to the solid material budget through rising global temperatures

have less negative impacts on flowing waters than the absence

of the sediment continuum. For the provision of drinking

water, important adaptation measures would involve linking

small suppliers and amenities and the creation of redundan-

cies of virgin water sources. The main challenge for wastewater

treatment is to account for decreased water flows in the receiv-

ing waters. Increasing organic content in soil leads to increased

storage capacity for groundwater. Through the protection and

expansion of water retention areas (e. g., floodplains), objec-

tives of flood and biodiversity protection to adapt to changing

discharge conditions can be combined (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

In water management there are only few possibilities for

reducing GHGs. In urban water management the construc-

tion of suitably large digesters for the production of biogas in

water treatment plants can contribute to GHG reductions. It

is difficult to avoid methane emissions from existing reservoirs


Studies have come to differing conclusions regarding the

impact of climate change on the energy production of hydro-

electric plants. However, production is expected to shift from

summer to winter (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Climate change increases pressure on ecosystems and

biodiversity, which are currently already burdened by numer-

ous factors such as land use and emissions. Many nature pro-

tection measures that promote biodiversity can also contribute

to GHG reductions. Protection and restoration of moors or

decreasing the intensity of use of key forests or wetlands creates

carbon sinks and promotes biodiversity. Such measures can be

economically attractive, but will not be implemented to any

significant extent without incentives (Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Ecosystems and biological diversity are threatened not

only by climate change but also by many other global, re-

gional, and local changes. The introduction of foreign inva-

sive species, deposition of toxic substances, destruction of hab-

itats due to housing construction, trade, industry, or tourism,

water use, and agricultural and forestry changes, for instance,

can all have negative impacts. Measures in other sectors have

both indirect impacts (via climate change) and direct impacts,

such as land use, on nature protection, ecosystems, and bio-

diversity. GHG reduction measures in other sectors are often

also adaptation measures for nature protection and biodiver-

sity (Volume 2, Chapter 3; Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Increasing pressure on ecosystems and biodiversity can lead

to a loss in the capacity of ecosystems to deliver an adequate

quantity and quality of critical ecosystem services. In particu-

lar, risks arise from ecosystem deficiencies that are already pres-

ent and through climate-induced shifts of habitat boundaries

where species are unable to cope with due to migration bar-

riers, for example, in the alpine region. Creating a compre-

hensive habitat network in Austria is an important adaptation

option (Volume 2, Chapter 3; Volume 3, Chapter 2).

Trade-offs between climate protection measures and biodi-

versity protection can occur. In the area of renewable energy,

for instance, conflicts between climate protection and bio-

diversity arise. Further expansion of hydropower can lead to

a decrease in biological diversity in flowing waters. Increasing

land use for the cultivation of energy crops or intensive use

of forests can impair their functions as carbon sinks and have

impacts on biodiversity. Early identification of possible con-

flicts between climate and biodiversity protection enables the

best use to be made of existing synergy potentials (Volume 3,

Chapter 2).

Sustainable consumption offers significant GHG reduc-

tion potentials. Demand-side changes, such as changes in di-

etary consumption habits and measures to reduce food waste,

can make a significant contribution to GHG reductions (Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 2).

In the EU25, almost 30 % of total GHG emissions from

consumption can be attributed to food. The consumption

of meat and dairy products causes 14 % of total GHG emis-

sions in the EU27. In Austria, GHG emissions of food con-

sumption are likely to be similar to those in Germany, where


72

roughly half of GHG emissions related to food consumption

come from agricultural production – 47 % from meat and 9 %

from plant production. The remaining 44 % of GHG emis-

sions from food consumption come from processing, trade,

and consumption activities such as cooling etc. (Volume 3,

Chapter 2).

Significantly reducing animal products in the diet can con-

tribute considerably to GHG emission reductions. A regional,

seasonal, and predominantly vegetarian diet as well as the con-

sumption of products with lower GHG emissions across the

entire supply chain can result in significant GHG savings. A

greater consumption of organic products, combined with a

change in consumption toward more plant products to com-

pensate for the lower output of organically grown products

and thus the extra growing space required, can also contribute

to GHG reductions. Overall, it is estimated that an extensive

change in diets could save over half of GHG emissions related

to food production (Volume 3, Chapter 2). Such behavior-

al changes also have significant knock-on effects in terms of

health improvements (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

Decreasing losses in the entire life-cycle (production and

consumption) of food could make an important contribution

to GHG reductions. However, data on food loss and waste in

Austria are contradictory and not very robust; in some cases

the avoidance potential is quite low, when compared inter-

nationally. Substantially more research is needed (Volume 3,

Chapter 2).

Systemic effects cause large uncertainties in the compre-

hensive assessment of GHG effects of bioenergy. These ef-

fects relate particularly to direct and indirect effects of land-use

change. Land-use related GHG emissions from bioenergy pro-

duction can be either positive or negative. In many cases they

are the decisive factor in determining whether replacing fossil

energy by bioenergy actually achieves the desired GHG emis-

sion reduction effect. The extent of GHG emissions related to

land use change depends mainly on two factors: i) the usage

history of the land to be deployed for bioenergy cultivation

and the characteristics of the bioenergy crops and ii) systemic

effects such as the displacement of cultivation of feed- and

foodstuffs (indirect land-use change: ILUC). The uncertainties

regarding data and models for estimating ILUC are no justi-

fication for ignoring the systemic effects related to large-scale

cultivation of bioenergy. Ignoring these would be an implicit

assumption that emissions related to ILUC are zero, which

in general is incorrect. Emissions related to ILUC must be

included in calculations of GHG emissions to determine if the

cultivation of bioenergy crops contributes to GHG reductions


S.3.3 Energy

Energy is vital for our economic system and for the produc-

tion of goods and the delivery of services: energy use thus of-

fers a particular large range of possibilities for taking action

and shaping transformation. While energy use per value added

(energy intensity of GDP) has barely changed since 1990 in

Austria, it has decreased significantly in other countries and at

the EU average. From 1990 to 2011 between 4.8 and 5.5 PJ

of primary energy were used per billion EUR of gross domestic

product, without any relevant change in trend. From a cli-

mate perspective, however, this is a significant problem as the

transformation of primary fossil energy into energy services is

accompanied by GHG emissions.

For a transformation of the energy system, a focus on

energy services is crucial. Energy services are the actually rel-

evant factor for prosperity. Energy productivity at all levels of

the energy system defines the amount of energy that is nec-

essary for the delivery of the energy service. The energy mix

defines which energy source is used directly for end use or for

input to transformation processes. Climate policy thus needs

to address all three areas of energy demand, energy technolo-

gies, and type of energy sources (Volume 3, Chapter 3; Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 6).

In 2011 total gross domestic energy demand for primary

energy in Austria was over 1 400 PJ, with an energy input

that has more than tripled since 1955 (Figure S.3.5). At the

same time primary energy demand stagnated between 2005

and 2011 with a significant reduction in 2009, which can be

attributed to lower levels of production during the economic

crisis (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

During this time, fossil fuels have dominated with a share

consistently over 70 %, which in absolute figures equates to an

increase from approximately 750 PJ (1973) to approximately

1 000 PJ (2011). Within the fossil energy mix, the share of coal

has reduced significantly both proportionally and in absolute

terms (from 245 PJ to 145 PJ; Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Demand for petroleum products has increased from 450 PJ

to 550 PJ since 1973, an increase which is due exclusively to the

transport sector. In other sectors (industry, electricity produc-

tion, heating) the use of oil has declined considerably. Gas is the

only fossil energy source whose share of primary energy con-

sumption has increased (in 2011, at around 350 PJ, the share

was almost 24 %). The share of renewable energy had risen to

26 % by 2011. Historically, the most important aspects in the

development of end energy use were the increases in the shares

of electricity (from 17 % in 1990 to 23 % in 2011) and of gas

(from 13 % in 1990 to 28 % in 2011; Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Synthesis

73

Between 1990 and 2011 the share of energy-related

GHG emissions was approximately 87 % of total emis-

sions. Energy-related GHG emissions depend on the de-

mand for energy services, the efficiency of the transformation

technology, and the specific GHG emission factor. The main

reasons for the high GHG intensity of the Austrian energy

system are the high transformation losses (around 50 %) from

primary to useful energy, the high share of GHG emitting fos-

sil fuels (currently around 70 % of Austrian energy use), and

also the low energy prices, which on average have not changed

when accounted for in real prices (i. e., adjusted for purchasing

power). Since 1990 energy-related GHG emissions in Austria

have risen practically only in the transport sector (up to al-

most 25 Mt CO2-eq. by 2005, slightly declining thereafter).

Conversely, the household sector has registered a decrease of

around 20 % since 1990. All other sectors have only seen very

marginal change (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Due to its high share of GHG emissions and the numerous

mitigation possibilities, the energy sector is very relevant for

climate protection. The energy sector also offers a number of

synergistic measures that achieve both GHG reductions and

adaptation effects (e. g., passive measures to reduce the cooling

load of buildings, photovoltaics as an additional supply capac-

ity element in summer).

The most important options for mitigating GHG emissions

in each of the individual sections of the energy supply chain

are the following:

Energy production: in principle, GHG emissions in pri-

mary energy use can be reduced by the use of renewable energy

sources, and also by carbon capture and storage (CCS) tech-

nologies or the use of nuclear energy.

In Austria the latter two are not considered to be possible

options. Accordingly, only the use of renewable energy is dis-

cussed here. The potential of all available renewable energy

sources in Austria by 2050 is approximately 170 TWh or

610 PJ per year, of which biomass, wind and photovoltaics

could particularly provide a significantly higher contribution

than they currently do (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Energy transformation and transmission: Depending

on the scenario, up to 100 % of electricity generation can be

covered by renewable energy technologies by 2050. The re-

cent market entry of renewable energy represents the most

significant change in electricity production. Due to currently

continuously declining costs, particularly in photovoltaics, the

significant increase in renewables is set to continue. In the next

years this will change the entire Austrian market system, as

very large amounts of electricity are temporarily produced by

these plants, increasing the share of own-consumption; at the

same time electricity storage and smart grids will play a consid-

erably more important role in the electricity system then they

currently do (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

To optimize these developments in the energy system,

changes in infrastructure and structural adjustments to pro-

duction, networks, and storage will be necessary. Barring pos-

sible socio-political concerns regarding, for example, data and

privacy protection changes and adjustments are absolutely

achievable as long as i) energy political framework conditions

are developed and decentralized renewable energy technolo-

Figure S.3.5. Primary energy consumption in Austria by energy sources. Source: Graph by R. Haas based on data of the Energy Economics Group and Statistik Austria (2013)

0

200

600

800

1000

1200

140019

55

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

PJPrimary energy consumption AT 1955-2010

coal

oil

natural gas

water

biomass

other renewables

other energy sources

400


74

gies are deployed in production accordingly, ii) smart grids

are implemented at the level of distribution systems, iii) new

electricity storage technologies and capacities are established

and iv) smart meters are installed at the user level (Volume 3,

Chapter 3).

Changes have already been registered in the area of district

heating (buildings have very low heat density following ther-

mal renovation) for centralized district heating networks; at

the same time, district heating has the potential to facilitate

the transition to a renewable heat supply (Volume 3, Chapter

3; Volume 3, Chapter 5).

Energy use: On the demand side, options to reduce energy

demand are high quality thermal renovation of buildings to

heat and cool residential housing and increased, as well as opti-

mized integration of renewables. Current developments of in-

creasingly ambitious new building standards can make a valu-

able contribution to climate protection and energy efficiency.

Under these circumstances, about 70 % of the energy demand

for significantly thermally improved buildings by 2050 can

be covered from renewables, for which a broad portfolio of

biomass, solar heat, and geothermal energy could be deployed

(Volume 3, Chapter 3; Volume 3, Chapter 5).

In Austria there is significant energy saving potential in

electricity use, although studies clearly show that demand will

continue to rise considerably without significant political in-

terventions and unless there is a portfolio of effective measures


Options to adapt to climate change: The need for the en-

ergy sector to adapt to climate change relates particularly to

the climate-dependency of renewables, increased cooling de-

mand of thermal power plants, and changes in energy demand

through a shift in heating and cooling needs. Potential impacts

of climate change are particularly significant for hydropower

in Austria, due to changes in precipitation amounts and pat-

terns (especially seasonal shifts) and changes in runoff through

increased evaporation. This can also affect conventional ther-

mal power plants indirectly via the availability of cooling wa-

ter. These developments could be countered by changes in tur-

bines or in reservoirs, to either secure or even increase energy

output.

Energy policy instruments: Implementing mitigation

measures will require energy policy instruments, which can be

summarized from the studies and scenarios that were analyzed

in the following portfolio (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

CO2-related energy tax: The central instrument of most

policy studies is the implementation of continually in-

creasing energy taxes to effectively reduce GHG emis-

sions, combined with incentives to change to less CO2-

intensive energy sources and to increase energy efficiency;

this means decreasing energy use but also increasing in-

vestments in energy-efficient appliances, vehicles, and fa-

cilities. Competition on the energy market and the related

switch to cheaper (renewable) energy means that the ini-

tially significant subsidies are no longer given for, for ex-

ample, biological energy sources, hydrogen, or electricity

for e-mobility. The lower taxation rates for these fuel types

shift demand, which results in environmental benefits in

the long-term.

Standards: Dynamic maximum consumption standards

are particularly important instruments in various areas:

i) tightening thermal building standards for existing

buildings, ii) implementing thermal standards for new

buildings (analogous to plus-energy-houses), iii) tight-

ened standards for electric appliances in households and

in the service industry (office buildings), and iv) rigorous

tightening of standards for CO2 emissions from various

alternative energy sources, are all important standards for

reducing and optimizing energy consumption.

Other incentive systems: Subsidies are expedient in areas

where the preferred means of financial support for renew-

ables are feed-in tariffs or market premiums, particularly

as long as there are no taxes that incorporate all exter-

nalities; in addition, incentives for the increasing market

integration of renewables into electricity production and

also for heating and mobility are helpful, as are subsidies

for ecological building renovation and explicit incentive

and information systems (e. g., labelling systems) for the

elimination of old and unviable appliances.

Soft knowledge and skills: Increasing the general knowl-

edge level regarding energy saving is necessary to com-

bat energy poverty and for targeted appliance exchange

and renovation activities. Improved advice for exchang-

ing heating systems, electric appliances, and renovating

buildings are also part of soft knowledge and skills. In

the housing sector especially, there is a great need for au-

diting and monitoring activities to successively identify

energetic weaknesses.

Conclusion. The following basic incentives exist to decrease

GHG emissions in the energy sector:

Reducing demand for energy services, for example, heat-

ing / cooling, electric appliances, motor vehicle use.

Improving the efficiency of the energy supply chain,

namely, more efficient provision of the energy service, for

Synthesis

75

example, more efficient electric appliances, and lower fuel

intensity of motor vehicles at unchanged performance

and service level.

Providing the entire energy services demand with energy

sources with low CO2 emissions, for instance, through a

shift to renewable energy sources.

Studies with ambitious energy or GHG emission reduction

scenarios assume that on average the use of renewables can be

increased by up to at least 600 PJ by 2050. If it were possible

to lower total energy use to the available level of renewables

in the same time frame, a GHG-free energy supply would be

possible by 2050 (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

In conclusion, the following can be noted: only if a co-

ordinated mix of these individual measures is implemented

and prevailing conditions in society are considered, will it

be possible to broadly unlock the GHG reduction poten-

tial in Austria by 2050 (Volume 3, Chapter 3; Volume 3,

Chapter 6).

S.3.4 Transport

Of all sectors, greenhouse gas emissions increased most in

the transport sector, by 55 %, in the last two decades. The

regulatory instruments used in the EU in the past years – es-

sentially standards for CO2 emissions per km – failed to take

effect for a long time because most of the increased efficiency

of vehicles was compensated for by increased driving distances

and larger / heavier vehicles (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Assuming that increasing transport performance and ve-

hicle kilometers travelled will be as indicated in the Austrian

transport forecast 2025+ with no additional measures, and

taking into account the technical regulations (EU and national

level) that have already been decided, CO2 emissions in the

transport sector can be expected to continue to rise over the

next few years. The technical thresholds that have been agreed

will lead to a decrease in CO2 emissions only by the middle

of this decade; emissions would still be 12 % above 1990 val-

ues in the year 2030. In 2030 around 45 % of transport- re-

lated CO2 emissions would originate from passenger cars and

roughly 35 % from road-based goods transport (values do not

consider air traffic; Volume 3, Chapter 3).

The first successes from the limitation of CO2 emissions

per kilometer for passenger cars and delivery vans are already

visible. In the past, changes in public transport supply and

(perceptible) price signals have also had an effect on the share

of private motorized transport in Austria (Figure S.3.6; Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 3).

To achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas

emissions from passenger transport, a comprehensive

package of measures is necessary. Key to achieving this are

marked reductions in the use of fossil-fuel energy sources,

increasing energy efficiency, and changing user behavior. A

prerequisite is improved spatial structures of economic pro-

duction and settlement, where the distances that need to be

travelled are minimized. This could strengthen the environ-

mentally friendly forms of mobility used, such as walking and

cycling. Public transportation systems could be expanded and

improved, and their CO2 emissions minimized. Technical

measures for car transport include further massive improve-

ments in vehicle efficiency of vehicles or the use of alternative

power sources – provided that the necessary energy is also pro-

duced with low emissions (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Freight transportation in Austria, measured in ton-

kilometers, in the last decades increased more than gross

domestic product. The further development of transport de-

mand could be shaped by a number of economic and social

conditions. Optimizing logistics and strengthening the CO2

efficiency of transport are two potential control functions. A

reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per ton-kilometer can

be achieved by alternative power and fuels, efficiency improve-

ments, and a shift to rail transportation (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Substantial reductions in GHG transport emissions re-

quire a coordinated portfolio of political measures, which

include avoiding transport (reduction of distance travelled),

a shift to more efficient transport modes (public transport),

and the use of “zero-emission” vehicles and renewable ener-

gy (Figure S.3.7). Central aspects are appropriate economic

framework conditions, namely, new price (for motorized pri-

vate transport) and tariff systems (for public transport) as in-

centives to shift from motorized private transport to public

transport and zero-emission vehicles (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Spatial planning measures could also contribute to a reduc-

tion in vehicle kilometers (passenger and freight) travelled, by

placing people’s basic needs (living, working, education, recre-

ation, community) and economic exchange processes close to-

gether. Higher efficiency in car transport can also be achieved

by higher occupancy rates (carpools, fewer unladen journeys,

less searching for parking spaces etc.; Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Reducing the use of fossil energy requires combustion mo-

tors with lower consumption or measures that promote ve-

hicles with lower CO2 emissions (such as, for example, e-mo-

bility, generated by renewables) and an increase in the energy

efficiency of traffic flows (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Spatial planning: From a spatial planning perspective, the

biggest adaptation successes are to be expected in the Alpine


76

region through the general further development of planning

instruments and cooperation across countries and sectors. The

resulting knowledge transfer and the accompanying awareness

raising should offer avenues for developing robust settlements

and infrastructures, as well as protection against natural haz-

ards, optimal management of water and other resources; these

sustainably provide landscape development and safeguard

open spaces and also bring about a reorientation of tourism


Economic sphere (taxes and subsidies): All studies ana-

lyzed with regard to new pricing systems for motorized private

transport, identify similar priorities: continually rising (CO2-

based) fuel taxes could be particularly effective, supplemented

by a consumption-based vehicle registration tax, which should

avoid trends toward larger vehicles and ensure greater efficien-

cy. Supportive measures could include road-pricing in larger

cities, abolishing benefits for company cars, revenue-neutral

reshaping of commuter tax breaks, development of new con-

cepts for and intensification of parking management and sim-

plifying tariffs for public transport together with increasing

incentives to purchase season tickets (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

The significant effects of price increases on energy- and

GHG intensive forms of mobility in favor of reduced kilo-

meters driven and / or a shift to other means of transport or

public transport have been scientifically validated (Volume 3,

Chapter 3).

Traffic planning and “soft tools”: Inducing shifts in passen-

ger transport requires the further development of public trans-

port and increased incentives for its use, better mobility man-

agement in companies, supporting bicycle transport (building

new cycle paths, closing gaps in existing cycle path networks,

building bicycle parking spaces) and convincing public re-

lations work (Volume 3, Chapter 3; Volume 3, Chapter 6).

Implementing a shift in freight transport requires improved

logistics, higher capacity utilization of haulage (in terms of

weight and volume), and increasing the attractiveness of rail

and inland water (Danube) vessels by developing rail routes and

connections to shipping infrastructure (Volume 3, Chapter 3).

Technological solutions for alternative drive technolo-

gies, alternative energy forms, and increased efficiency in

conventional “vehicles”: More efficient technologies include

primarily the increased use of alternative fuels and an increased

share of electrically driven passenger cars and light commercial

vehicles and the reduction of specific CO2 emissions of biofu-

els, so that they emit 70 % less than fossil fuels by 2020. The

extent of reductions is limited by the emissions that occur dur-

ing the production of biofuels, so that their large-scale use is

increasingly being called into question (Volume 3, Chapter 2;


Until 2030 the relevance of alternative fuels (biofuels, hy-

drogen, and natural gas) will remain within moderate lim-

its. Electrification of road freight transport is currently not

sensible, leaving biofuels as the only viable alternative both

in these applications and for mobile machinery (Volume 3,

Chapter 3).

S.3.5 Health

The Austrian health system can make a significant contri-

bution to an equitable climate transformation. The Aus-

trian health and welfare systems employ approximately 10 %

of the workforce and produce approximately 6 % of Austri-

an gross value added; this share is growing. This important

role in the Austrian economy also entails a large responsibil-

ity of the sector for the sustainable development of the ser-

vices it supplies. As ecological sustainability is important for

the long-term support and preservation of health, the health

sector has a role model function, which underlines its re-

sponsibility in the context of climate protection (Volume 3,

Chapter 4).

Figure S.3.6. Historical development of CO2-emissions in transport from 1950 to 2010 in Austria; LNF = light commercial vehicles (<3.5 t total weight); SNF = heavy duty vehicles (>3.5 t total weight and buses); Off-road = trains (steam and diesel traction, construction machines, agricultural machines, lawnmowers, etc.). Source: Hausberger and Schwingshackl (2011)

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

1000

t p.

a.

Year

total off-roadSNFLNFMotorcyclesMopedsPassenger cars

Synthesis

77

Many measures in health care were not specifically devel-

oped for the sector, but are part of sectoral strategies. Measures

such as high thermal building standards, efficient energy man-

agement, and the transition to renewable energy sources also

possess high potential for emission reductions in the health

sector (see strategies in the section on “buildings” and Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 5), as a number of pioneers have already dem-

onstrated. Health care has particular opportunities to reduce

emissions in the areas of mobility, environmentally and re-

source-friendly procurement and climate-friendly waste man-

agement. In this regard, establishing incentives for patients

and staff to engage in climate-friendly behavior can make a

significant contribution (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Adaptation in the context of health relates to institution-

ally and privately planned measures on the one hand and to

biological-physiological processes on the other. The latter are

automatic, subconscious processes in human bodies and take

place at different levels and at different speeds. In this context

it is important to gain knowledge about the existing borders of

such adaptation processes and the high-risk groups who, due

Figure S.3.7. A comparison of characteristic CO 2-emissions per passenger-kilometer and ton-kilometer for different transport modes that use fossil energy and thermal electricity generation in the case of electric railways. Source: IPCC (2014)

Copyright: IPCC (2014) In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 8.6. [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

LDV gasoline, diesel, hybrid

LDV taxi gasoline, diesel, hybrid

Coach, bus, rapid transit

2- and 3-wheel motorbike

HDV large

LDV commercial (van)

HDV small

HDV medium

Passenger rail, metro, tram

Diesel freight train

Electric freight train

Passenger ferry

Barge

Roll-on, roll-off ferry

Container ship – coastal

Container ship – ozean

Bulk carrier – ozean

Bulk tanker – ozean

Passenger aircraftShort-haul bellyhold in

passengerLangstreckenflug im

PersonenflugzeugShort-haul cargo

aircraftLong-haul cargo

aircraft

Road

Rail

Waterborne

Air

Passenger [g / p-km]

Freight [g / t-km]

* The ranges only give an indication of direct vehicle fuel emissions. They exclude indirect emissions arising from vehicle manufacture, infrastructure, etc. included in life-cycle analyses except from electricity used for rail

Direct* CO2 Emissions per Distance [gCO2 / km] Direct* CO2 Emissions per Distance [gCO2 / km]


78

to various factors (age, medical history, social factors etc.), pos-

sess limited adaptation abilities. While biological-physiolog-

ical processes tend to allow adjustments to be made to short-

term weather events, institutional adaptation strategies help

adjustment to long-term changes and support of the high-risk

groups (Volume 2, Chapter 6; Volume 3, Chapter 4).

The health system is thus a central element in improving

the capacity to adapt to the possible health impacts of climate

change. High-risk groups should be particularly supported, as

they are sensitive to climatic changes due to age or medical his-

tory. Furthermore, sustainable health care focuses on preven-

tion rather than on the treatment and cure of illnesses. Such a

transformation requires structural changes to be made to the

entire system (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Risks, as in newly introduced or established pathogens and

vectors are almost impossible to predict and the possibility of

taking prophylactic action is very small. They are therefore a

big challenge for the health system (Volume 2, Chapter 6).

Continual and detailed collection and monitoring of health

data, which need to be regularly linked to climate and prolif-

eration data, serve as an important basis for developing target-

ed adaptation strategies. To date, such studies are temporally

selective or geographically limited to a few regions in Austria


A barrier in the health care context is the limited avail-

ability of data. Although the health system routinely collects

health data, these are either not available or not available in

sufficient detail for scientific research. Sufficient data as a basis

for conceptualizing adaptation strategies and without which

meaningful and detailed analyses of regional and local dose-

effect-relationships, are hard to generate; this area is currently

hampered by concerns over data protection, unclear com-

petences, lack of cooperation, and technical problems (Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 4).

In any case, health-related adaptation can entail behavioral

changes on the part of many individuals, of large parts of the

population, and of members of particular high-risk groups


Finally it is important to note that adaptation and mitiga-

tion measures in other areas can also be relevant for human

health. It is thus important to avoid negative feedbacks and,

conversely, to make use of synergetic effects between different

areas and sectors (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Climate-relevant transformation is often directly related

to health improvements and accompanied by an increase in

the quality of life. Shifting from car to bike use, for example,

has a proven positive preventive impact on cardiovascular dis-

eases and has other health-improving effects that significantly

increase life expectancy, in addition to positive environmental

impacts. Sustainable diets have also proved to have health-

supporting effects (e. g., reduced meat consumption). Due

to existing feedback effects, total effectiveness is raised when

health experts are given a say in the design and planning of

relevant measures outside the health system. Only this would

make it possible to conceptualize measures so that they are ei-

ther advantageous to health, or at least that the positive effects

outweigh the negative (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

S.3.6 Tourism

Globally, the contribution of tourism is estimated to amount

to be around 5 % of total CO2 emissions; emissions are created

due to travel (point of departure to destination), and accom-

modation and activities (on site). Some 75 % of emissions are

caused by tourism due to transportation of tourists, and 21 %

by accommodation (Figure S.2.8; Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Tourism, a significant economic sector, can also be assumed

to be responsible for a relevant and high share of GHG emis-

sions in Austria. When indirect economic effects were ac-

counted for, tourism contributed 7.45 % to total value added

in 2010. To date detailed analyses of emissions from domestic

tourism are lacking; detailed data are available only for snow-

based winter tourism. There, the largest cause of emissions is

accommodation at 58 %, followed by transportation at 38 %.

Cable cars, ski lifts, ski slope maintenance vehicles, and snow

cannons cause only 4 % of total snow-based winter tourism

emissions (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

High savings potential with regard to GHG emissions

caused by tourism can be identified in transport and accom-

modation, and could be achieved by adapting the operational

management of tourist facilities.

Successful pioneers in sustainable tourism are showing

ways to reduce greenhouse gases in this sector. In Austria

there are flagship projects at all levels – individuals, municipal-

ities, and regions – and in different areas, such as hotels, mo-

bility, and tourist activities. Due to the long-term investments

involved in infrastructure, tourism is particularly susceptible

to lock-in effects (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Changes in climate have a significant effect on the Aus-

trian tourism industry. This is due to the high dependence on

local climatic conditions. On the basis of current knowledge

about future climate development, it can be assumed that the

consequences will be both negative (in winter) and positive (in

summer); but economically the negative effect will be more

pronounced because winter tourists spend more. Guarantee-

ing the long-term and sustainable development of the tourism

Synthesis

79

industry depends on timely recognition of the advantages and

benefits of climate change as well as an adaptive strategy based

on these insights.

Various areas of Austrian tourism will be affected by climate

change in different ways. It is expected, for instance, that city

tourism will experience barely any net annual change, but

considerable seasonal shifts. It is possible that city tourism

will decrease in summer due to an increase in hot days and

tropical nights. Shifts in tourism flows to other seasons and

regions are possible and can already be observed in some cases.

For alpine swimming lakes, climate change could even turn

out to be advantageous. However, particularly negative effects

are to be expected for Lake Neusiedel – whose water level is

expected to decline considerably – mountain tourism, and al-

pine winter tourism. The main problems for mountain tour-

ism, already in evidence today, are the decline in permafrost

and glaciers, which implies unstable paths and risks of rock

fall. In addition to modifying, maintaining, or indeed creating

new paths to alpine huts, high altitude paths, and routes to

reduce and avoid disproportionate risks, adaptation measure

in mountain tourism also include abandoning old paths and

installing new ones, and the installation of path-information

systems (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Winter tourism will come under pressure due to the

steady rise in temperature. Compared to destinations where

natural snow is plentiful, many Austrian ski areas are threat-

ened by the increasing costs of snowmaking. Therefore, adap-

tation measures relating to alpine winter tourism are of par-

ticular relevance to Austria. This is due on the one hand to

the high climate sensitivity of winter tourism (dependence on

snow) and to the important position of winter tourism in the

domestic tourism industry on the other hand. This important

position is also due to the fact that while the numbers of over-

night stays in Austria are roughly equal in summer and winter,

the income per guest is significantly higher in winter. Already

today, compensating for reduced natural snowfall through ar-

tificial snowmaking is a widespread measure used to cope with

annually variable snow cover (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Future adaptation possibilities through artificial snow-

making are limited. Although currently 67 % of the slope

surfaces are equipped with snowmaking machines, the use of

these is limited by the rising temperatures and the (limited)

availability of water (likely, Volume 3, Chapter 4). The promo-

tion of the development of artificial snow by the public sector

could therefore lead to maladaptation and counterproductive

lock-in effects (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Snowmaking leads to higher energy use, which in turn leads

to higher costs and higher prices for skiers. For many people

this is a reason not to go skiing. Another strategy is to expand

or change the location of ski resorts to higher altitudes and

to north faces to secure continuous operation with an earlier

start and later end to the season. Such measures have already

been observed in the past. However, this strategy also has sev-

eral disadvantages, such as i) conflicting with skiers’ preference

for sunny slopes, ii) the natural landscape limitations of many

ski resorts to expand to higher altitudes, iii) increased risks of

Figure S.3.8. Estimated share of tourist activites which contribute to global CO2 emissions and radiation (inlcuding day-trippers) in 2005. Source: adapted from UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008)

Sha

res

per t

ouris

m e

lem

ent (

%)

Activities

Accommodation

Other transport

Car transport

Air transport

CO2-emmisions RF(excl. cirrus)

RF(incl. maximum cirrus

impact)


80

avalanches, and iv) exposure to wind and the danger to fragile

ecosystems (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

A general and often mentioned strategy to adapt to climate

change – not just for winter tourism – is diversifying supply.

Due to the implicit insurance effect, a mixed supply portfolio

is subject to lower risk than a one-sided supply. However, re-

sults show that the potential for diversifying supply is limited,

as ski destinations are visited for snow-based activities not be-

cause of activities that can take place independently of snow


A strategy of last resort for particularly endangered areas

could be the compilation of an integrative exit scenario from

snow tourism. Particularly at the edge of the Alps and at low

altitudes, some resorts that are no longer profitable have al-

ready started to close. A well-known and successful example

of an actively planned exit from winter tourism following a

number of winters with little snow at the start of the 1990s

is the ski resort Gschwender Horn in Immenstadt (Bavaria).

The lifts have been removed and the ski slopes restored. To-

day, the resort is used for summer (hiking, mountain biking)

and winter (snowshoeing, ski touring) tourism (Volume 3,

Chapter 4).

Generally there are a number of strategies to enable an ade-

quate adaptation of the tourism sector to climate change (Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 4). The success of these approaches depends

on whether action takes place individually and reactively or in

a linked and anticipatory manner. Only linked and anticipa-

tory activities will avoid counterproductive situations (such as

higher resource use through increased snowmaking) and en-

able long-term, successful development of the Austrian tour-

ism sector (Volume 3, Chapter 4).

Losses in tourism in rural areas have high regional eco-

nomic follow-up costs. As these job losses frequently cannot

be compensated for by other industries, structural change

of this type often leads to emigration. Peripheral rural areas

already face large challenges through waves of urbanization


Tourism could benefit in Austria because of the very

high temperatures expected in summer for the Mediterra-

nean. Summer tourism could benefit indirectly, as the expect-

ed high temperatures in the Mediterranean region will make

the Austrian climate comparatively more attractive (Volume 3,

Chapter 4).

S.3.7 Production

From 1970 to 1995 energy input into Austrian industry was

fairly stable between 200 and 250 PJ / year, but started to rise

steadily thereafter and crossed the 300 PJ mark in 2005 (Fig-

ure S.3.9; Volume 3, Chapter 5).

In the period 1970 to 1995 energy use increased hardly

at all, while production value and quantity almost doubled.

This was because increases in production were compensated

for by increases in efficiency i) as part of general technological

development and ii) due to structural change in production.

Slumps in 1973 and 1980 can be attributed to energy (price)

crises. The share of electric energy has remained almost con-

stant (dotted line in Figure S.3.9) at around 30 % in the past

30 years. In the last 1.5 decades the trend changed completely,

leading to an increase in energy input by almost 50 % to over

300 PJ / year (Volume 3, Chapter 5).

Due to the high share of domestically emitted GHGs,

the focus of production has been primarily on mitigation

measures (as opposed to adaptation strategies). Decreasing

emissions of climate-effective gases from energy input into

production can take place though a reduction in energy end

use on the one hand, and through a shift to energy sources

with lower emissions on the other. Process-related CO2 emis-

sions can be avoided only through innovations in production

or products. Reductions in other GHGs (methane, nitrogen

oxide, fluorinated hydrocarbons etc.) can only be achieved

through process innovations (Volume 3, Chapter 5).

Although climate protection measures have already been

implemented in Austrian industry, there is still enormous un-

tapped emission reduction potential. This relates in particular

to efficiency measures and the use of renewable energy. How-

Figure S.3.9. Energy consumption of the production sector in Aust-ria; values in PJ / yr. Source: Statistik Austria (2012)

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

PJ /

a

Final energy consump�onAustria

Final energy consump�onby produc�on

Final energy consump�on byproduc�on excl. electric energy

Share of energy consump�onby produc�on

Synthesis

81

ever, emission reductions in line with the 2 °C stabilization

target will require the support and development of radical new

technological innovations (Volume 3, Chapter 5).

Industry is the largest emitter of GHGs in Austria. In

2010 the share of the production sector in both total Austrian

energy end use and GHG emissions was close to 30 %. Emis-

sion reductions of 50 % and above cannot be reached through

incremental improvements and the application of the state of

the art. Such reductions would require either the storage of

GHG emissions (carbon capture and storage, as documented

in EU scenarios for the 2050 energy roadmap) or the develop-

ment of new, climate- friendly processes (radically new tech-

nologies and products and a drastic reduction of energy end

use). Th is provides an opportunity to develop new materials

and products for international markets (Volume 3, Chapter 5).

Only a few subsectors are responsible for a large pro-

portion of energy demand and GHG emissions. Th e fi ve

largest emitting (combustion and process emissions) sec-

tors are iron and steel, metal production, mineral products,

pulp / paper / printing, and chemicals. Together, these subsec-

tors are responsible for over two-thirds of total production

emissions.

A major emission reduction measure that has already been

implemented due to cost benefi ts is the shift from coal to gas,

a very effi cient reduction strategy. A downside to this strat-

egy is the resource dependence on countries with insecure and

ethically questionable political situations. A number of other

voluntary measures have also already been implemented re-

lating to a reduction in fuel demand. In this context, lower

fuel demand is often compensated for by higher electricity

demand, which improves the emissions balance of the produc-

tion sector but worsens the emissions balance of the electricity

sector. Another measure, to which the largest installations in

the energy-intensive sector are subject, is the “EU Emission

Trading System.” Due to the almost constantly low prices of

certifi cates, emission reduction signals have been rather minor


In Austria, while eff orts to improve energy effi ciency

and promote renewable energy can be observed, these lack

suffi cient measures to reach the targets that have been set.

With regard to both energy effi ciency and the use of renewable

energy sources, the potential is not yet exhausted. With the

exception of the pulp industry, the use of renewable energy

in industry is not yet prevalent. Depending on the location,

Figure S.3.10. CO2 streams from the trade of goods to/from Austria according to major world regions. The emissions implicitly contained in the imported goods are shown with red arrows, the emissions contained in the exported goods, attributed to Austria, are shown with white ar-rows. Overall, south Asia and east Asia, particularly China, and Russia, are evident as regions from which Austria imports emission-intensive consumer- and capital- goods. Source: Munoz and Steininger (2010)


82

small-scale hydropower plants can offer an alternative source

of electricity generation. In addition to the use of renewable

energy sources, industrial combined heat and power genera-

tion is crucial. The paper and pulp industry in particular has

very good pre-conditions in this context. There is also sig-

nificant potential in the generation of electricity from low

temperature waste heat (ORC installations). In the medium

term some of the technologically necessary carbon can also

be procured from biogenic sources. This also requires sig-

nificant further research (Volume 3, Chapter 5; Volume 3,

Chapter 6).

If the emissions in other countries caused by consump-

tion in Austria are included, emission figures in Austria are

around 50 % higher. An effective climate protection strategy

in industry should consider global processes and include these

as a central element. Demand in Austria contributes to the

emissions of other countries. If these emissions are included

and adjusted for emissions related to Austrian exports, Aus-

trian “consumption-based” emissions can be calculated. These

are considerably higher than Austrian emissions as recorded in

UN statistics and are on the increase (they were 38 % higher in

1997 and 44 % higher in 2004). The flow of embodied emis-

sions in goods shows that most emissions caused by Austrian

imports come from China, southern and eastern Asia, and

Russia (Figure S.1.5). Consideration of the global context also

puts the sometimes high decreases in industrial end use and

the emissions of other EU member states into perspective, as

these are often due to a relocation of energy-intensive industry

(Volume 3, Chapter 5; Volume 3, Chapter 6).

Currently, none of the sectors investigated have strate-

gies to adapt to climate change. Expected potential challeng-

es are changes in demand for cooling and heating, the avail-

ability of bio resources (e. g., wood), and a climate-induced

change in demand.

S.3.8 Buildings

Statistics Austria’s complete inventory of the number of build-

ings and homes and the micro census, which contains a statis-

tically relevant sample of homes, form the basis of all Austrian

studies on buildings. For commercial buildings, there is an

initial study evaluating energy use in various sectors.

The number of commercial buildings and homes in Austria

has been increasing on a linear basis since 1961, due to the ris-

ing population on the one hand and the increase in space used

per person on the other. In 2011 there were around 4.4 mil-

lion apartments in 2.2 million buildings, of which around

75 % were single and two-family homes. Around 70 % of liv-

ing space was constructed before 1980 with a low energy stan-

dard. A large proportion is suitable for energetic renovation


Space heating and other small uses are responsible for

28 % of energy end demand and 14 % of GHG emissions.

Despite continued construction of domestic and commercial

buildings, energy demand has remained fairly constant since

1996, as additional energy demand by new buildings and

energy savings through demolition and renovation are more

or less balanced. At 260 PJ / year, domestic households are re-

sponsible for roughly 62 % of energy demand and private and

public service providers at 130 PJ for about 31 %. The remain-

ing demand is from agriculture. In domestic households, space

heating has the main share with over two-thirds (195 PJ / year),

domestic hot water is at roughly 13 % (35 PJ / year), and cook-

ing at just under 3 % (7 PJ / year). The rest (remaining 37

PJ / year) is equivalent to domestic electricity demand. Wood,

gas, and oil, each provide around 27 % of heating and warm

water; district heating provides 14 % and electricity 9 %; solar

heat and heat pumps each provide around 2 %.

While the share of renewable energy for domestic house-

holds increased from 22.9 % to 26.9 % and district heating in-

creased from 6.9 % to 9.9 % in the period from 2003 to 2010,

the share of fuel oil dropped from 25 % to 19 %. Natural gas

remained constant at 20.5 %, and the share of coal was very

small, all of which demonstrates a clear trend toward renew-

able energy sources and district heating. This trend is strongly

supported by the high volatility of oil prices and the availabil-

ity of technically advanced automatic heating systems that run

on renewables.

The main energy sources in the public and private services

sector were electricity (28 %), district heating (23 %), natu-

ral gas (20 %) and fuel oil (13 %), while biomass contributes

only 2.5 % (renewables were not specified). Pipeline and grid-

bound energy sources provide over 80 % of energetic end use

in the services sector; at 4.2 %, coal, diesel, petrol and liquid

gas as well as renewables and waste played only a marginal role

in the sector total.

In 2010 Austrian households emitted 24 Mt CO2-eq. of

GHGs including biomass (equivalent to 26 %). If the CO2

emissions from biogenic energy sources are calculated as be-

ing CO2-neutral, as is the case internationally, emissions are

reduced to 17 Mt and the share declines to 24 %. Heating and

other small use as well as warm water and electricity are each

responsible for half.

According to the 2011 Austrian climate protection report,

the sectors “space heating and other small use” in households

(not including electricity and district heating) contributed

Synthesis

83

14 % to GHG emissions. Th is percentage is considerably

lower than the share of 28 % of fi nal energy demand because

of the use of energy sources that emit less CO2 (biomass and

district heating).

Changes in outside temperature caused by climate

change will result in lower heating demand, but will in-

crease buildings’ cooling demand. Adaptation strategies in

the building sector require legal instruments and subsidies to

reduce the cooling demand of buildings and support techni-

cal measures relating to the orientation of buildings, window

areas, storage space, night-time ventilation, etc.

On the basis of the IPCC IS92a scenario and the algo-

rithms used in the Austrian implementation of the EU En-ergy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), heating de-

mand will reduce by approximately 20 % between 1990 and

2050, while cooling demand increases. However, heating

demand will nevertheless dominate cooling demand in most

buildings.

Technological progress in recently constructed build-

ings and renovation has signifi cantly reduced space heat-

ing energy demand, which decreased from 42 kWh / m2 / year

to 28.8 kWh / m2 / year in subsidized housing from 2006 to

2010. In accordance with the European buildings directive’s

(amendment 2010) move toward “nearly zero-energy build-

ings”, implementation of ambitious standards for new build-

ings is necessary, to achieve long-term climate protection

targets. Following thermal-energetic renovation of domestic

buildings, the space heating demand reached an average val-

ue of 48.8 kWh / m2 / year in 2011. In 2006 this value was

at around 67 kWh / m2 / year. As the majority of homes are

already built, the energetic renovation of buildings is the single

most important mitigation measure.

GHG emissions can further be decreased by the optimal

use of renewables in buildings. An analysis of the potential

of renewables in building use, however, needs to consider the

entire energy system including transport, trade, industry and

buildings, to avoid an isolated consideration of buildings that

yields an over-estimation of potential for this sector.

Th e lower the energy demand of buildings, the easier it

is to supply them with renewables. Solar heat and photovol-

taics can increasingly be used for areas that are not necessary

for illumination and are oriented accordingly. Th e scalability

to very small sizes and capacity will mean a possible increase in

the use of heat pumps operated with renewables. Th e limited

availability of biomass means that its use will be expanded in

industry and mobility rather than in buildings, with the excep-

tion of self-supply in rural areas. Th e increasing effi ciency of

buildings will mean that local district heat networks will play

an ever-smaller role, as the ratio of heat provided to network

losses becomes increasingly unfavorable.

Without major political interventions, domestic electricity

consumption will continue to rise. Although effi cient technol-

ogies increase the theoretical reduction potential, the increase

in electricity intensive applications and constantly low electric-

ity prices implies total electricity consumption to continue to

rise, at least moderately.

Th rough increased effi ciency, renewable energy could

cover around 90 % of heating demand of buildings by

Figure S.3.11. Energy end use according to sector (left) and proportion of households, and private & public sector providers (right). Source: Statistik Austria (2012)

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84

2050. The Austrian energy strategy – which for the most part

lacks specific measures – allows for an investment of € 2.6 bil-

lion / year to achieve a 3 % annual renovation rate for domestic

buildings up to 2020. This will trigger gross production value

of around 4 billion € / year, with subsidies of around € 1 bil-

lion / year. A 3 % renovation rate for commercial buildings

would require around € 400 million / year additionally. This

could save some 4.1 Mt CO2-eq. GHG emissions / year and

€1.33 billion / year in energy costs, creating around 37 000

new jobs by 2020. With a time-span of 10 years, this would

require subsidies of around € 14 billion and would perma-

nently save in the region of 3 400 t CO2-eq. / year of emissions


Options to further improve energetic building renova-

tion include increased energetic and ecological orientation of

building regulations for new buildings and renovations and a

shift of housing subsidies toward renovation. The quality of

data on the building stock and energy consumption (particu-

larly for commercial buildings) in Austria could be improved.

Only few studies are available on urban climate in Austria

(city planning, surface coloring, greening buildings), so that

an estimation of temperature reduction measures to mitigate

climate-induced warming in urban areas (and heat islands)

and the related energy and emission savings is not yet possible.

Detailed economic studies on broad cost / benefit analyses of

high-value building renovation are also lacking, as most stud-

ies focus only on individual buildings (Volume 3, Chapter 5).

S.3.9 Transformative Pathways

Without measures to curtail emissions, significant negative

consequences for the biosphere and socioeconomic conditions

can be expected globally. An important target value to limit

“dangerous” climate change in the sense of the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is

to stabilize the increase in global warming at 2 °C. In addi-

tion to vigorous mitigation, measures will also be needed to

adapt to climate change that can no longer be avoided even at

this low stabilization level (Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3,

Chapter 6).

The temperature change at the end of the 21st century and

beyond depends on the amount of CO2 emissions accumu-

lated by then. Figure S.3.13 illustrates this correlation on the

basis of several models for each of the four “representative con-

centration paths” (RCPs) developed for the IPCC (2013) until

2100.

Climate protection measures implemented to date have

proven to be inadequate to reverse dangerous climate

change. Each additional delay further decreases the chances

of reaching the 2 °C stabilization target. Most measures sug-

gested to date are “top-down” and relate to nation states. Some

of these are included in international agreements. A major

reason for the ineffectiveness of current climate policy is that

it does not recognize what a large number of actors have a

share in climate responsibility and that consequently an in-

teractive (bottom-up and top-down), political process with

feedback loops would be necessary for effective regulation.

Further reasons for policy failure are the complex connections

between social, economic, and environmental problems. The

repeated disappointment of high expectations with regard to

international climate negotiations has resulted in the disillu-

sionment of both politicians and the public in climate politics


To develop viable paths to reach the 2 °C target, an un-

derstanding of the connection between environmental deg-

radation, poverty, and social inequality is necessary. Exam-

ples of such interactions are the connections between climate

change, mobility behavior, and land use change, changes in

population, the health status of the population and environ-

mental damage, technological change and global market inte-

gration, and the fact that some parts of the world are chang-

ing very rapidly, whilst others stagnate and remain in poverty


From a structural point of view, the climate change crisis

and excessive resource use are closely related to the current-

ly dominant economic order. From this perspective resource-

intensive way of life and production modes, the fact that few

govern over many, and increasing economic inequality are all

both part and root causes of the climate crisis. As currently

prevailing structures and practices are responsible for the

sustainability crisis, they need to be changed to overcome

Figure S.3.12. CO2-equivalent emissions in the space heating sector and other small consumers. Sources: Anderl et al. (2009, 2011, 2012)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Emis

sion

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t CO

2-eq.

/y

Total

Private households

Public and private service providers

Agriculture and forestry

Synthesis

85

the crisis. Such comprehensive change processes aimed at

sustainability are described as social-ecological transforma-

tion (Volume 3, Chapter 6). New paths and practices include

transformative approaches to climate mitigation and adapta-

tion that go beyond marginal and incremental steps. Such

measures can require changes in form and structure and in

so doing open up fundamentally new courses of action (Vol-

ume 3, Chapter 6).

In this sense, the earlier sectoral analysis showed that signif-

icant emission reduction potentials exist in all sectors in Aus-

tria and that measures to use these are known. However, the

analysis also clearly shows that neither currently planned, nor

more sectoral, mostly technology-oriented, measures will

suffice to achieve the expected Austrian contribution to the

global 2 °C stabilization target. Meeting the 2 °C target re-

quires more than the implementation of incremental improve-

ments to production technologies, greener consumer goods,

and a policy that (marginally) increases efficiency in Austria.

A transformation of the interaction between economy, so-

ciety, and the environment is required that is supported by

behavioral changes on the part of individuals that, in turn,

support such a transformation. If the risk of unwanted, irre-

versible change is not to increase, the transformation needs to be

introduced and implemented rapidly (Volume 3, Chapter 6).

The aims for the development of renewable energy and

energy efficiency included in the Austrian energy strategy are

aligned with the EU targets for 2020, which aim for an EU-

wide reduction in emissions by 20 % in relation to 1990 levels.

On the basis of various global climate protection scenarios,

there are significant doubts as to whether the EU 2020 re-

duction targets are sufficient to reach the long-term goal of

stabilizing temperature change at under 2 °C in a cost-efficient

manner (Volume 3, Chapter 1). In contrast, more stringent

targets for industrialized nations in the minus 25 % to minus

40 % range by 2020 are being discussed, targets which are

also implied by the illustrative reduction pathways in the EU

“Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in 2050.”

When applied to Austria, EU 2020 targets are currently

interpreted as a reduction commitment of roughly 3 % in rela-

tion to 1990. This target for 2020 is considerably lower than

the original Austrian target during the first Kyoto period for

2008–2012. As Austria is a relatively wealthy country with sig-

nificant potential for renewable energy, it would be possible

for Austria to at least align its climate protection targets for

2020 with the original Kyoto targets (−13 % emissions in rela-

tion to 1990).

0

1

2

3

4

51000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)Te

mpe

ratu

re a

nom

aly

rela

tive

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861–

1880

(°C

)

0 500 1000 1500 2000Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)

2500

2050

2100

2100

2030

2050

2100

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2030

2010

2000

1980

1890

1950

2050

RCP2.6 HistoricalRCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5

RCP range1% yr

-1 CO2

1% yr -1 CO2 range

Copyright: IPCC (2013) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Wor-king Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figu-re SPM.10. [Stocker,T.F., D.Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M.Tignor, S.K.Allen, J.Boschung, A.Nauels, Y.Xia, V.Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA.

Figure S.3.13. The impact of cumulative total CO2 emissions on temperature increases for the historic period from 1870 to 2010 and for the future using four “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs). Each RCP is depicted as a coloured line, with points indicating mean decadal values. Results from empirical studies for the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated in black. The thin black line depicts model results with a CO2 increase of 1 % per year. The pink coloured plume illustrates the spread of the suite of ensemble models for the four RCP scenarios (see Volume 1, Chapter 1 and Volume 3, Chapter 1). These are named after their radiation forcing reached in 2100 (be-tween 2.6 and 8.5 W / m2); Source: IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM (2013)


86

Furthermore, studies on the impacts of the economic crisis

from 2008 to 2010 on the EU conclude that the crisis has made

reaching the EU 2020 target of −20 % GHG emissions consid-

erably easier than originally assumed. With additional efforts

these could realistically be surpassed (Volume 3, Chapter 6).

In many policy areas, discussions on social-ecological

transformation are reduced to concepts such as “sustain-

able growth”, “qualitative growth”, or the current variation,

“green growth”. However, these are concepts that would make

production more environmentally friendly through new tech-

nologies, but leave the logic of production and consumption

unchanged. In essence, “green growth” suggests a continuation

of current policy measures to support economic growth, and

merely enhancing these with (mostly unquantified) environ-

mental measures. The recently published “European Report

on Development” (2013) accepts green growth as a policy op-

tion, but at the same time demands a broad range of objectives

and structural changes, which would allow inclusive and sus-

tainable development at the local, national, and global levels.

Modern economies and economic research are structur-

ally closely connected to the paradigm of unlimited eco-

nomic growth, measured on the basis of Gross Domestic

Product (GDP). National and international climate policy

concentrates on growth-dependent policy measures. Only

a small number of studies have critically questioned

the effects of stringent climate protection targets on

the development paths of economies and the expected

feedbacks.

As green growth is a contentious approach, the question re-

mains as to how climate protection and other social-ecological

objectives can be achieved concurrently. For planning and po-

litical decisions and in order to steer social-ecological systems

toward sustainability, appropriate indicator systems, which

can measure societal progress and well-being are necessary.

Several factors that contribute to quality of life, such as resi-

dential building activities, a healthy diet, health care, educa-

tion, or security correlate positively with GDP, the prevalent

indicator. On the other hand, factors and activities that nega-

tively contribute to the common good, such as natural disas-

ters, increasing environmental damage, or processes of social

disintegration can also contribute to GDP growth. For this

reason, a search is under way at the European and interna-

tional levels for more appropriate indicators.

Taken alone, climate friendliness is a necessary, but in-

sufficient condition for sustainable development. Achiev-

ing the 2 °C target requires there to be a simultaneous focus

on climate-friendly technologies, behaviors, and institutional

change. This applies particularly to energy supply and de-

mand, industrial processes, and agriculture. These three ar-

eas are particularly important: in 2010 they caused 79 % of

greenhouse gas emissions in Austria, one-third of which was

caused by road traffic, 13 % by industrial processes, and 9 %

by agricultural emissions. To limit the danger of irreversible

damage, climate friendliness needs to be integrated into future

investment, production, consumption, and political decisions

as a matter of course. At the same time it is important to en-

sure that neither social nor economic framework conditions

are overburdened. Climate friendliness needs to be integrated

into the context of the significantly broader criteria of sustain-

ability.

Although climate friendly measures are often connected

to costs or unwanted changes, they can cause various positive

side effects, for instance, on quality of life, health, employ-

ment, rural development and environmental protection, secu-

rity of supply, and trade balance. The internalization of these

positive side effects of climate protection creates the necessary

room for maneuver.

There are several empirical studies that have analyzed

changes in the energy system up to 2050 in Austria. They all

see potential for reducing energy end use by around 50 % by

2050 (Figure S.3.14).

The energy models, with which the scenario analyses de-

picted in Figure S.3.14 were carried out, show that empirical

studies focus mainly on changes in energy supply, while the

significant challenge of analyzing demand and energy use

is for the most part not considered. Investigating these as-

pects would require a significantly higher number of technical

details, actors, and institutional arrangements to be consid-

ered as well as the driving forces of increasing energy demand.

Nonetheless, such analyses are necessary to describe the main

actors, measures, barriers, risks, and costs of transformation.

As the reorganization toward climate compatibility leads not

only to burdens, but can also stimulate important growth sec-

tors, it is in both the public and economic interest to raise

awareness about the new possibilities and expected redistribu-

tion processes. This is necessary to shape effective markets and,

not least, to identify room for maneuver in the international

negotiation of the global 2 °C target.

To assess alternative paths toward a transformation to a

climate-friendly and sustainable society within the energy sce-

narios presented above, consideration is needed of the effects

of global and regional development dynamics, which form

the broader context for development options in Austria, and

which have not been fully considered in models. In accordance

with a systemic approach, a chosen framework for climate re-

sponsibility must be specified, before the possible courses of

Synthesis

87

action of individual actors are addressed, as this plays a funda-

mental role in defining what constitutes a room for maneuver

and effects of climate protection actions.

In many respects, climate change will have larger impacts

on other regions of the world, which in turn will increase mi-

gration pressures on Europe (and Austria). Although for the

most part migration has taken place within world regions until

now, the current flow of refugees particularly from Africa to

Europe could increase in future. Changes in migration flows

can result from both the impacts of extreme weather events

and long-term climate variability and can be an effective

means of adapting to climate change for many people.

As a small, diversified and economically open economy,

Austria is open to a number of internal and external dynam-

ics, which have been insufficiently represented in energy and

emissions models to date. An example is the rapidly increas-

ing European and global market integration and globalization

that are leading to the internationalization of and an increase

in complexity of process chains of processing industries and

increasing geographical distances between the production and

consumption of goods. Furthermore, as mentioned above, in

Austria the production of imported goods causes more emis-

sions internationally than the production of goods for export

cause nationally (Volume 3, Chapter 6). Climate protection

measures must consider such contexts, as scopes that are too

narrow can lead to a further outsourcing of emissions and con-

sequently fail to achieve their objective of achieving a global

reduction in GHGs.

Austria has pledged to take action in the framework of EU

climate policy (Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chapter 6).

This requires a more permanent and long-term planning of

climate goals to be pursued, which recent Austrian climate

policy has failed to achieve. Long-term, binding climate tar-

gets minimize investment risks and allow economic actors to

take foresightful planning decisions for long-living infrastruc-

ture. A fundamental policy measure would be a comprehen-

sive evaluation of subsidies and grants for possible climate

effects, as these are important means of political management.

This would apply particularly to, for example, the low petro-

leum tax in Austria compared with other EU countries, com-

muter tax breaks, residential building subsidies not connected

to energy efficiency requirements, and tax breaks for air travel

and company cars.

New incentive schemes that directly influence action are

particularly important; they can lead to the development of

new business models and slow down energy demand. Energy

service companies (ESCOs) are an example of such a business

model. ESCOs dispose of funds, either alone or in connec-

tion with a financial institute, from which capital funds can

be taken to improve the energy efficiency of installations or

buildings. Parts of the resulting savings in energy costs are then

used to repay the funds used for the investment.

Attaching a cost to CO2 can systematically steer produc-

tion, consumption, and investment decisions toward climate

compatibility and accelerate the decarbonization of the energy

system as well as climate-compatible development (Volume 3,

Chapter 6). As buyers need to pay for goods and services in

proportion to their climate impact, accounting for CO2 gives

an incentive to change to alternatives with fewer climate im-

pacts – and an incentive for producers, to reduce the carbon

footprint of the goods and services they produce. This is the

idea at the heart of the European Union Emissions Trading

Figure S.3.14 Comparison of end energy use per sec-tor in 2012 compared to 2050 for various scenarios; Sources: based on Statistik Austria (2011). Statistik der Zivilluftfahrt (2010)

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88

System (EU-ETS; Volume 3, Chapter 1; Volume 3, Chap-

ter 6). The weaknesses of the current design of the EU-ETS

are the lack of adaptability of the cap and the over-allocation

of certificates (leading to low prices, Volume 3, Chapter 6).

As such, measures to reform the EU-ETS that would stabilize

the price signal required for transformative investments would

be constructive (Volume 3, Chapter 6). The options in this

case are directly steering the prices or steering the quantities,

as has been suggested by the EU Commission (“Market Stabil-

ity Reserve”). In a number of cases the introduction of taxes

on emissions has been shown to reduce emissions (Volume 3,

Chapter 6).

Participatory planning processes will play an important

role in the transformation toward a climate- compatible ener-

gy infrastructure. It will eventually be necessary to define new

roles for individuals, networks, and communities, in order to

engage on new paths toward sustainability. Communal energy

networks have a long history in Austria, but are the exception

rather than the rule in the current market structure. They are

essential for creating new and decentralized energy technolo-

gies and the required power networks in such a way that is

locally accepted.

In this context, the role of social and technological in-

novation will play a central role. Experimentation and learn-

ing from experience is necessary as also is the willingness to

take risks and accept the fact that certain innovations will fail.

This is problematic for individual companies but also for the

public policy area where failure has consistently negative con-

notations (Volume 3, Chapter 6).

Fundamental renewal will be necessary, with respect

to the goods and services that are produced in Austria, as

well as to large-scale investment programs. The assessment

of new technologies and social developments will need to be

based on a variety of criteria (multi-criteria approach) and re-

quire integrative socio-ecologically oriented decision making,

instead of short-term, narrowly defined cost-benefit calcula-

tions. Furthermore, national action should be concerted inter-

nationally, with both neighboring EU member states and the

international state community and in particular in partner-

ships with developing countries (e. g., through cooperation in

the area of technology transfer, such as the “Sustainable En-

ergy for All” initiative).

In Austria, changes in people’s belief-systems relating

to sustainability can be noted and action on a local scale

observed. Individual pioneers of change are already taking

climate-friendly action and have developed novel business

models (e. g., energy service companies in real estate, climate-

friendly mobility, or local supply) and are also transforming

municipalities and regions. Climate-friendly transformation

approaches can also be identified on the political level. If Aus-

tria wishes to contribute to achieving the global 2 °C target

and help shape future climate-friendly development on the

European and international levels, such initiatives need to be

reinforced and supported by accompanying policy measures

that create a reliable regulatory landscape.

Policy initiatives in climate mitigation and adaptation

are necessary at all levels in Austria if the above objectives

are to be achieved: at the federal and provincial levels and

the level of local communities. Within the Austrian federal

structure competences are split, such that only a common

and mutually adjusted approach across these levels can ensure

highest possible effectiveness and achievement of objectives.

To effectively implement the substantial transformation that

is necessary, a broad spectrum of instruments also needs to be

implemented.

S.4 Figure Credits Synthesis

Figure S.1.1 IPCC, 2001: In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cam-bridge University Press, Cambridge.

Figure S.1.2 Morice, C.P., Kennedy, J.J., Rayner, N.A., Jones, P.D., 2012. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational esti-mates: The HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. D08101. doi:10.1029/2011JD017187

Figure S.1.3 Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Knutti R, 2012. Global war-ming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nature Clim. Change 2:248-253.

Figure S.1.4 Umweltbundesamt, 2012: Austria’s National Inventory Report 2012. Submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and under the Kyoto Protocol. Reports, Band 0381, Wien. ISBN: 978-3-99004-184-0

Figure S.1.5 Böhm, R., Auer, I., Schöner, W., 2011. Labor über den Wolken: die Geschichte des Sonnblick-Observatoriums. Böhlau Verlag.

Figure S.1.6 Issued for the AAR14, adapted from: Kasper, A., Pux-baum, H., 1998. Seasonal variation of SO

2, HNO

3, NH3 and

selected aerosol components at Sonnblick (3106 m a. s. l.). At-mospheric Environment 32, 3925–3939. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(97)00031-9; Sanchez-Ochoa, A. and A. Kasper-Giebl, 2005: Backgroundmessungen Sonnblick. Erfassung von Gasen, Aerosol und nasser Deposition an der Hintergrundmeßstelle Sonnblick. Endbericht zum Auftrag GZ 30.955/2-VI/A/5/02 des Bundesministeriums für Bildung Wissenschaft und Kultur, Technische Universität Wien, Österreich; Effenberger, Ch., A. Kranabetter, A. Kaiser and A. Kasper-Giebl, 2008: Aerosolmes-sungen am Sonnblick Observatorium – Probenahme und Analyse der PM10 Fraktion. Endbericht zum Auftrag GZ 37.500/0002-VI/4/2006 des Bundesministeriums für Bildung, Wissenschaft und Kultur, Technische Universität Wien, Österreich.

Synthesis

89

Figure S.1.7 Issued for the AAR14, adapted from: Steinhilber, F., Beer, J., Fro�hlich, C., 2009. Total solar irradiance during the Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters 36. doi:10.1029/2009GL040142; Vinther, B.M., Buchardt, S. L., Clausen, H.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S. J., Fisher, D.A., Koerner, R.M., Raynaud, D., Lipen-kov, V., Andersen, K.K., Blunier, T., Rasmussen, S. O., Steffensen, J.P., Svensson, A.M., 2009. Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet. Nature 461, 385–388. doi:10.1038/nature08355; Rens-sen, H., Seppa�, H., Heiri, O., Roche, D.M., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., 2009. The spatial and temporal complexity of the Holocene thermal maximum. Nature Geoscience 2, 411–414. doi:10.1038/ ngeo513; Hormes, A., Mu�ller, B.U., Schlu�chter, C., 2001. The Alps with little ice: evidence for eight Holocene phases of reduced glacier extent in the Central Swiss Alps. The Holocene 11, 255–265. doi:10.1191/095968301675275728; Nicolussi, K., Patzelt, G., 2001. Untersuchungen zur holoza�nen Gletscherentwicklung von Pasterze und Gepatschferner (Ostalpen). Zeitschrift fu�r Glet-scherkunde und Glazialgeologie 36, 1–87.; Joerin, U.E., Stocker, T.F., Schlu�chter, C., 2006. Multicentury glacier fluctuations in the Swiss Alps during the Holocene. The Holocene 16, 697–704. doi:10.1191/0959683606hl964rp; Joerin, U.E., Nicolussi, K., Fi-scher, A., Stocker, T.F., Schlu�chter, C., 2008. Holocene optimum events inferred from subglacial sediments at Tschierva Glacier, Eastern Swiss Alps. Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 337–350. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.10.016; Drescher-Schneider, R., Kellerer-Pirklbauer, A., 2008. Gletscherschwund einst und heute – Neue Ergebnisse zur holoza�nen Vegetations- und Gletscherge-schichte der Pasterze (Hohe Tauern, O�sterreich). Abhandlungen der Geologischen Bundesanstalt 62, 45–51.; Nicolussi, K., 2009b. Alpine Dendrochronologie – Untersuchungen zur Kenntnis der holoza�nen Umwelt- und Klimaentwicklung, in: Schmidt, R., Matulla, C., Psenner, R. (Eds.), Klimawandel in O�sterreich: Die Letzten 20.000 Jahre – und ein Blick voraus, Alpine Space – Man & Environment. Innsbruck University Press, Innsbruck, pp. 41–54.; Nicolussi, K., 2011. Gletschergeschichte der Pasterze – Spu-rensuche in die nacheiszeitliche Vergangenheit., in: Lieb, G.K., Slupetzky, H. (Eds.), Die Pasterze. Der Gletscher am Großglock-ner. Verlag Anton Pustet, pp. 24–27.; Nicolussi, K., Schlu �chter, C., 2012. The 8.2 ka event—calendar-dated glacier response in the Alps. Geology 40, 819–822. doi:10.1130/ G32406.1; Nicolussi, K., Kaufmann, M., Patzelt, G., Van der Pflicht, J., Thurn- er, A., 2005. Holocene tree-line variability in the Kauner Valley, Central Eastern Alps, indicated by dendrochronological analysis of living trees and subfossil logs. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 14, 221–234. doi:10.1007/s00334-005-0013-y; Heiri, O., Lotter, A.F., Hausmann, S., Kienast, F., 2003. A chironomid-based Holo-cene summer air temperature reconstruction from the Swiss Alps. The Holocene 13, 477–484. doi:10.1191/0959683603hl640ft: Ilyashuk, E.A., Koinig, K.A., Heiri, O., Ilyashuk, B.P., Psenner, R., 2011. Holocene temperature variations at a high-altitude site in the Eastern Alps: a chironomid record from Schwarzsee ob So�lden, Austria. Quaternary Science Reviews 30, 176–191. doi:10.1016/j. quascirev.2010.10.008; Fohlmeister, J., Vollweiler, N., Spo�tl, C., Mangini, A., 2013. COMNISPA II: Update of a mid-European isotope climate record, 11 ka to present. The Ho-locene 23, 749–754.doi:10.1177/0959683612465446; Magny, M., 2004. Holocene climate variability as reflected by mid- Eu-ropean lake-level fluctuations and its probable impact on prehis-toric human settlements. Quaternary International 113, 65–79. doi:10.1016/S1040-6182(03)00080-6; Magny, M., Galop, D., Bellintani, P., Desmet, M., Didier, J., Haas, J.N., Martinelli, N.,

Pedrotti, A., Scandolari, R., Stock, A., Vannière, B., 2009. Late-Holocene climatic variability south of the Alps as recorded by lake-level fluctuations at Lake Ledro, Trentino, Italy. The Holo-cene 19, 575–589. doi:10.1177/0959683609104032

Figure S.1.8 Bo�hm, R., 2012. Changes of regional climate variabil-ity in central Europe during the past 250 years. The European Physical Journal Plus 127. doi:10.1140/epjp/i2012-12054-6. Data source: Auer, I., Böhm, R., Jurkovic, A., Lipa, W., Orlik, A., Potzmann, R., Schöner, W., Ungersböck, M., Matulla, C., Briffa, K., Jones, P., Efthymiadis, D., Brunetti, M., Nanni, T., Maugeri, M., Mercalli, L., Mestre, O., Moisselin, J.-M., Begert, M., Müller-Westermeier, G., Kveton, V., Bochnicek, O., Stastny, P., Lapin, M., Szalai, S. , Szentimrey, T., Cegnar, T., Dolinar, M., Gajic-Capka, M., Zaninovic, K., Majstorovic, Z., Nieplova, E., 2007. HISTALP—historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region. International Journal of Climatology 27, 17–46. doi:10.1002/joc.1377, as well as data from: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/

Figure S.1.9 Bo�hm, R., 2012. Changes of regional climate variabil-ity in central Europe during the past 250 years. The European Physical Journal Plus 127. doi:10.1140/epjp/i2012-12054-6; data source: Auer, I., Böhm, R., Jurkovic, A., Lipa, W., Orlik, A., Potzmann, R., Schöner, W., Ungersböck, M., Matulla, C., Briffa, K., Jones, P., Efthymiadis, D., Brunetti, M., Nanni, T., Maugeri, M., Mercalli, L., Mestre, O., Moisselin, J.-M., Begert, M., Müller-Westermeier, G., Kveton, V., Bochnicek, O., Stastny, P., Lapin, M., Szalai, S., Szentimrey, T., Cegnar, T., Dolinar, M., Gajic-Capka, M., Zaninovic, K., Majstorovic, Z., Nieplova, E., 2007. HISTALP – historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region. International Journal of Climatology 27, 17–46. doi:10.1002/joc.1377

Figure S.1.10 Auer, I., Böhm, R., Jurkovic, A., Lipa, W., Orlik, A., Potzmann, R., Schöner, W., Ungersböck, M., Matulla, C., Briffa, K., Jones, P., Efthymiadis, D., Brunetti, M., Nanni, T., Maugeri, M., Mercalli, L., Mestre, O., Moisselin, J.-M., Begert, M., Müller-Westermeier, G., Kveton, V., Bochnicek, O., Stastny, P., Lapin, M., Szalai, S., Szentimrey, T., Cegnar, T., Dolinar, M., Gajic-Cap-ka, M., Zaninovic, K., Majstorovic, Z., Nieplova, E., 2007. HIS-TALP—historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region. International Journal of Climatolo-gy 27, 17–46. doi:10.1002/joc.1377; ENSEMBLES project: Fun-ded by the European Commission’s 6th Framework Programme through contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539; reclip:century: Fun-ded by the Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP), Klima- und Energiefonds der Bundesregierung, Project number A760437

Figure S.1.11 Auer, I., Böhm, R., Jurkovic, A., Lipa, W., Orlik, A., Potzmann, R., Schöner, W., Ungersböck, M., Matulla, C., Briffa, K., Jones, P., Efthymiadis, D., Brunetti, M., Nanni, T., Maugeri, M., Mercalli, L., Mestre, O., Moisselin, J.-M., Begert, M., Müller-Westermeier, G., Kveton, V., Bochnicek, O., Stastny, P., Lapin, M., Szalai, S., Szentimrey, T., Cegnar, T., Dolinar, M., Gajic-Cap-ka, M., Zaninovic, K., Majstorovic, Z., Nieplova, E., 2007. HIS-TALP – historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region. International Journal of Climatolo-gy 27, 17–46. doi:10.1002/joc.1377; ENSEMBLES project: Fun-ded by the European Commission’s 6th Framework Programme through contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539; reclip:century: Fun-ded by the Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP), Klima- und Energiefonds der Bundesregierung, Project number A760437


90

Figure S.1.12 Gobiet, A., Kotlarski, S., Beniston, M., Heinrich, G., Rajczak, J., Stoffel, M., n.d. 21st century climate change in the European Alps – A review. Science of The Total Environment. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050

Figure S.2.1 Issued for the AAR14.Figure S.2.2 Coy, M.; Stötter, J., 2013: Die Herausforderungen des

Globalen Wandels. In: Borsdorf, A.: Forschen im Gebirge –Inves-tigating the mountains – Investigando las montanas. Christoph Stadel zum 75. Geburtstag. Wien: Verlag der Österreich ischen Akademie der Wissenschaften

Figure S.2.3 Dokulil, M.T., 2009: Abschätzung der klimabedingten Temperaturänderungen bis zum Jahr 2050 während der Bade-saison. Bericht Österreichische Bundesforste, ÖBf AG. Available under: http://www.bundesforste.at/uploads/publikationen/Kli-mastudie_Seen_2009_Dokulil.pdf

Figure S.2.4 Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, En-vironment and Water Management; Dep. IV/4 – Water balance

Figure S.2.5 IPCC, 2007: In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adap-tation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Figure S.2.6 Issued for the AAR14, data source: Munich Re, Nat-CatSERVICE 2014

Figure S.3.1 IPCC, 2013: In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor,S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United King-dom and New York, NY, USA.; IPCC, 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, UK.; GEA, 2012: Global Energy As-sessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the Interna-tional Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Figure S.3.2 Schleicher, Stefan P.,2014. Tracing the decline of EU GHG emissions. Impacts of structural changes of the energy sys-tem and economic activity. Policy Brief. Wegener Center for Cli-mate and Global Change, Graz. Based on data by Eurostat

Figure S.3.3 Issued for the AAR14, based on: GLP, 2005. Global Land Project. Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stock-holm. Available under: http://www.globallandproject.org/publi-cations/ science_plan.php; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC. Available under: http://www.unep.org/maweb/en/Synthesis. aspx; Turner, B.L., Lambin, E.F., Reenberg, A., 2007. The emergence of land change science for global envi-ronmental change and sustainability. PNAS 104, 20666–20671. doi:10.1073/pnas. 0704119104.

Figure S.3.4 Umweltbundesamt, 2012: Austria’s National Inventory Report 2012. Submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and under the Kyoto Protocol. Reports, Band 0381, Wien. ISBN: 978-3-99004-184-0

Figure S.3.5 Issued for the AAR14 by R. Haas based on data by Energy Economics Group and Statistics Austria, 2013a. Ener-giebilanzen 1970-2011 [WWW Document]. URL http://www.statistik.gv.at/web_de/statistiken/energie_und_umwelt/energie/energiebilanzen/index.html (accessed 7.14.14).

Figure S.3.6 Hausberger,S., Schwingshackl, M., 2011. Update der Emissionsprognose Verkehr Österreich bis 2030 (Studie erstellt

im Auftrag des Klima- und Energiefonds No. Inst-03/11/ Haus Em 09/10-679). Technische Universität, Graz.

Figure S.3.7 translated for the AAR14 adapted from ADEME, 2007; US DoT, 2010; Der Boer et al., 2011; NTM, 2012; WBCSD, 2012, In Sims R., R. Schaeffer, F. Creutzig, X. Cruz-Núñez, M. D’Agosto, D. Dimitriu, M.J. Figueroa Meza, L. Fulton, S. Ko-bayashi, O. Lah, A. McKinnon, P. Newman, M. Ouyang, J.J. Schauer, D. Sperling, and G. Tiwari, 2014: Transport. In: Cli-mate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contributi-on of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Sa-volainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United King-dom and New York, NY, USA

Figure S.3.8 UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008: Climate change and tourism – Responding to global challenges. UNWTO: Madrid, Spain. Available under: http://www.unep.fr/scp/publications/de-tails. asp?id=WEB/0142/PA

Figure S.3.9 Issued for the AAR14, data source: STATcube – Statisti-sche Datenbank von Statistik Austria. Available under: http://sdb.statistik.at/superwebguest/autoLoad.do?db=deeehh

Figure S.3.10 Muñoz, P., Steininger, K.W., 2010. Austria’s CO2

responsibility and the carbon content of its international trade. Ecological Economics 69, 2003–2019. doi:10.1016/j.ecole-con.2010.05.017

Figure S.3.11 Issued for AAR14, data source: STATcube – Sta-tistische Datenbank von Statistik Austria. Available under: http://sdb.statistik.at/superwebguest/autoLoad.do?db=deeehh

Figure S.3.12 Issued for the AAR14, data source: Umweltbundes-amt, 2009: Klimaschutzbericht 2009. Reports, Band 0226, Wien. ISBN: 978-3-99004-024-9; Umweltbundesamt, 2011: Klima-schutzbericht 2011. Reports, Band 0334, Wien. ISBN: 978-3-99004-136-9; Umweltbundesamt, 2012: Klimaschutzbericht 2012. Reports, Band 0391, Wien. ISBN: 978-3-99004-194-9

Figure S.3.13 IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Con-tribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker,T.F., D.Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M.Tignor, S. K.Allen, J.Boschung, A.Nauels, Y.Xia, V.Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA.

Figure S.3.14 Issued for the AAR14, data source: Statistik Austria, 2011: Statistik der Zivilluftfahrt 2010. Wien. ISBN 978-3-902791-15-3. Available under: http://www.statistik.at/web_de/dynamic/services/publikationen/14/publdetail?id=14&listid=14&detail=489; Bliem, M., B. Friedl, T. Balabanov and I. Zielin-ska, 2011: Energie [R]evolution 2050. Der Weg zu einer sauberen Energie-Zukunft in Österreich. Endbericht. Institut für Höhe-re Studien (IHS), Wien; Christian et al., 2011: Zukunfsfähige Energieversorgung für Österreich (ZEFÖ). Vienna, Umweltma-nagement Austria, Institut für industrielle Ökologie und Forum Wissenschaft & Umwelt im Rahmen des Programmes „Energie der Zukunft“ des BMVIT. Streicher, W., H. Schnitzer, M. Titz, F. Tatzber, R. Heimrath, I. Wetz, S. Hausberger, R. Haas, G. Kalt, A. Damm, K. Steininger and S. Oblasser, 2011: Energieautarkie für Österreich 2050. funded by the Austrian climate and energy fund (kli:en). Universität Innsbruck – Institut für Konstruktion und Materialwissenschaften, Arbeitsbereich Energieeffizientes Bauen, Innsbruck

AppendixUnderlying Documents

Appendix: Underlying Documents

Citation of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM)

APCC (2014): Summary for Policymakers (SPM), revised edition. In: Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14), Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Austrian Academy of Sciences Press, Vienna, Austria.

Citation of the Synthesis

Kromp-Kolb, H., N. Nakicenovic, R. Seidl, K. Steinin-ger, B. Ahrens, I. Auer, A. Baumgarten, B. Bednar-Friedl, J. Eitzinger, U. Foelsche, H. Formayer, C.Geitner, T. Glade, A. Gobiet, G. Grabherr, R. Haas, H. Haberl, L. Haimberger, R. Hitzenberger, M. König, A. Köppl, M. Lexer, W. Loibl, R. Molitor, H.Moshammer, H-P. Nachtnebel, F. Prettenthaler, W.Rabitsch, K. Radunsky, L. Schneider, H. Schnitzer, W.Schöner, N. Schulz, P. Seibert, S. Stagl, R. Stei-ger, H.Stötter, W. Streicher, W. Winiwarter (2014): Synthesis. In: Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14), Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Austrian Academy of Sciences Press, Vienna, Austria.

Documents that the SPM and Synthesis build upon.

This SPM and Synthesis build upon the following de-tailed publications, as publish ed in APCC (2014): Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht

Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Cli-mate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, 1096 pages. ISBN 978-3-7001-7699-2

Volume 1: Klimawandel in Österreich: Einfluss-faktoren und Ausprägungen

Haimberger, L., P. Seibert, R. Hitzenberger, A. Steiner und P. Weihs (2014): Das globale Klimasystem und Ursachen des Klimawandels. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14).

Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 137–172.

Winiwarter, W., R. Hitzenberger, B. Amon, H. Bauer†, R. Jandl, A. Kasper-Giebl, G. Mauschitz, W. Spangl, A. Zechmeister und S. Zechmeister-Boltenstern, (2014): Emissionen und Konzentrationen von strah-lungswirksamen atmosphärischen Spurenstoffen. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 173–226.

Auer, I., U. Foelsche, R. Böhm†, B. Chimani, L. Haim-berger, H. Kerschner, K.A. Koinig, K. Nicolussi und C. Spötl, 2014: Vergangene Klimaänderung in Österreich. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Cli-mate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 227–300.

Ahrens, B., H. Formayer, A. Gobiet, G. Heinrich, M. Hofstätter, C. Matulla, A.F. Prein und H. Truhetz, 2014: Zukünftige Klimaentwicklung. In: Öster-reichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 301–346.

Schöner, W., A. Gobiet, H. Kromp-Kolb, R. Böhm†, M. Hofstätter und M. Zuvela-Aloise, 2014: Zusam-menschau, Schlussfolgerungen und Perspektiven. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 347–380.

Volume 2: Klimawandel in Österreich: Auswir-kungen auf Umwelt und Gesellschaft

Stötter, J., H. Formayer, F. Prettenthaler, M. Coy, M. Monreal und U. Tappeiner, 2014: Zur Kopplung zwischen Treiber- und Reaktionssystemen sowie zur Bewertung von Folgen des Klimawandels. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel


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Nachtnebel, H.P., M. Dokulil, M. Kuhn, W. Loiskandl, R. Sailer, W. Schöner 2014: Der Einfluss des Klima-wandels auf die Hydrosphäre. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 411–466.

Lexer, M.J., W. Rabitsch, G. Grabherr, M. Dokulil, S. Dullinger, J. Eitzinger, M. Englisch, F. Essl, G. Gollmann, M. Gottfried, W. Graf, G. Hoch, R. Jandl, A. Kahrer, M. Kainz, T. Kirisits, S. Netherer, H. Pauli, E. Rott, C. Schleper, A. Schmidt- Kloiber, S. Schmutz, A. Schopf, R. Seidl, W. Vogl, H. Winkler, H. Zechmeister, 2014: Der Einfluss des Klimawan-dels auf die Biosphäre und Ökosystemleistungen. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 467–556.

Glade, T., R. Bell, P. Dobesberger, C. Embleton-Hamann, R. Fromm, S. Fuchs, K. Hagen, J. Hübl, G. Lieb, J.C. Otto, F. Perzl, R. Peticzka, C. Prager, C. Samimi, O. Sass, W. Schöner, D. Schröter, L. Schrott, C. Zangerl und A. Zeidler, 2014: Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Reliefsphäre. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 557–600.

Baumgarten, A., C. Geitner, H.P. Haslmayr und S. Zechmeister-Boltenstern, 2014: Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Pedosphäre. In: Österrei-chischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 601–640.

König, M., W. Loibl, R. Steiger, H. Aspöck, B. Bednar-Friedl, K.M. Brunner, W. Haas, K.M. Höferl, M. Huttenlau, J. Walochnik und U. Weisz, 2014. Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Antroposphäre. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 641–704.

Volume 3: Klimawandel in Österreich: Vermei-dung und Anpassung

Bednar-Friedl, B., K. Radunsky, M. Balas, M. Baumann, B. Buchner, V. Gaube, W. Haas, S. Kienberger, M. König, A. Köppl, L. Kranzl, J. Matzenberger, R. Mech-ler, N. Nakicenovic, I. Omann, A. Prutsch, A. Scharl, K. Steininger, R. Steurer und A. Türk, 2014: Emissi-onsminderung und Anpassung an den Klimawandel. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 707–770.

Eitzinger, J., H. Haberl, B. Amon, B. Blamauer, F. Essl, V. Gaube, H. Habersack, R. Jandl, A. Klik, M. Lexer, W. Rauch, U. Tappeiner und S. Zechmeister-Bol-tenstern, 2014: Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Wasser, Ökosysteme und Biodiversität. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 771–856.

Haas, R., R. Molitor, A. Ajanovic, T. Brezina, M. Hartner, P. Hirschler, G. Kalt, C. Kettner, L. Kranzl, N. Kreuzinger, T. Macoun, M. Paula, G. Resch, K. Steininger, A. Türk und S. Zech, 2014: Energie und Verkehr. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Cli-mate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 857–932.

Moshammer, H., F. Prettenthaler, A. Damm, H.P. Hut-ter, A. Jiricka, J. Köberl, C. Neger, U. Pröbstl-Hai-der, M. Radlherr, K. Renoldner, R. Steiger, P. Wallner und C. Winkler, 2014: Gesundheit und Tourismus. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 933–978.

Schnitzer, H., W. Streicher und K.W. Steininger, 2014: Produktion und Gebäude. In: Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 979–1024.

S. Stagl, Schulz, N., K. Kratena, R. Mechler, E. Pirg-maier, K. Radunsky, A. Rezai und A. Köppl, 2014: Transformationspfade. In: Österreichischer Sach-

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standsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14). Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), Verlag der Ös-terreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien, Österreich, p. 1025–1076.

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