Dr. Balakrishnan Nairbala@incois.gov.in

The need

Forecast generation

Validation

Dissemination

User interaction & feedback

Value added products

I will cover ……….

Ocean Forecast

A forecast, for a specified oceanic or coastal area, of weather elements of particular

interest to safe navigation and operations at sea, including wind, Wave, Swell,

current, Sea surface temperature, visibility, the general state of the weather, and

storm warnings.

Unimpressed user Unprofessional forecaster

Research and Academia Passenger ships

Ports and Harbours

Offshore Industry

Fishermen

Merchant ships

Coast Guard

Navy

OSF

Ocean Forecast- users

Users Parameters Use for

Indian Navy Wave, Wind, Currents,

Mixed Layer depth, Sea Surface Temp.

Surface wave and winds for Operational

planning. MLD and other forecasts have

utility in advance planning of operational

missions

Oil Industry Wave, Wind, Currents,

Sea Surface Temperature

Deployment of Oil rigs and survey vessels.

At a wind velocity > 20 knots & wave height >2.5 m, offshore operations are impossible for ONGC. 24 hrs forecast with an accuracy of 2 knots for winds and 0.5m for wave height.

Shipping Industry Wave, Wind, Currents Optimum ship routing and severe weather

forecast

Offshore Industries Wave, Wind, Currents Operational decisions

Ports & Harbours Wave, Wind, currents Ship berthing and cruise planning

Coast Guards Wave, Wind, Currents Ship movements and safety of life at Sea

Sear and Rescue

Fisherman Waves, Currents, Wind Safety and integrated PFZ forecast

Sailors Club Coastal wave, wind, rip currents, Water Quality Planning and safety during the sailing

competitions

Tourism departments Coastal waves, Rip currents,

Water Quality

Coastal waves, water quality

Ocean Forecast- user requirement

Sea State/ Marine met

General Circulation

Biogeochemical/Ecological

Marine Pollution

Wave, Swell, Wind, Visibility, Cyclone, Storm

surge

Surface current, , SST, T&S profile, mixed layer depth,

thermocline

Nutrients, Chlorophyll, Oxygen, productivity,

Fishery, HAB

Oilspill, Pollutants etc.

Ocean Forecast- the parameters

• In oceanography, a sea state is the general condition of the free surface on a large body of water—

with respect to wind waves and swell—at a certain location and moment.

• The sea state can either be assessed by an experienced observer, like a trained mariner, or through

instruments like weather buoys, wave radar or remote sensing satellites

• The Beaufort scale is an empirical measure that relates wind speed to observed conditions at sea.

Ocean/Sea State

Generation

Dissemination

Validation

User Interaction

Ocean Modeling

Data

Assimilation

ICT &

Spatial Information technology

User Needs

Observation

system

HPC

Component of Ocean Forecast System

The above process being processed through a HPC to all States & UTs in coastal India & other countries.

Schematics of OSF system at INCOIS

Model Name Model Products Spatial resolutionTemporal

resolutionStatus

ROMSGeneral circulation

parameters

Regional

Coastal

Every hour for 7

daysOperational

HYCOME

General circulation

parameters

Regional

Coastal ---------- Experimental

Spectral Wave model

(Flexible mesh)

Wave/Swell

paremetrs/High

wave Alert

Regional,

Coastal and

Location specific

Every 3 hour for 7

days Operational

WAVEWATCH IIIWave/Swell

paremters

Global and

Regional

Every 6 hour for 5

days Semi-operational

SWAN

Wave/Swell

paremetrs/High

wave Alert

Coastal

Every 3 hour for 7

days experimental

GNOME Oil spill trajecory Location specific 3 hoursexperimental

TASKWater Level Location specific 1 hour operational

Numerical models used for forecast generation

Coastal Wave Forecast- Using Flexible mesh model

Model: Spectral Wave Model

Domain:60s-30 N, 30-120E

Bathymetry: Gebco+ CMAP

Modified etopo (NIO)

Interval 3 horly

ForcingNCMRWF, ECMWF,NCEP (Analysed

and forecasted)

Coastal Wave Forecast- using multigrid and nested models

Multigrid WAVEWATCH III SWAN

GODASHYCOM

ROMS

HOOFS: HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL OCEAN FORECAST AND ANALYSIS SYSTEM

HOOFS-The High Resolution Operational Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis System

Pilot Phase

Domain : 70-73.3oE, 17-22.3oN

Horizontal Resolution : ~ 1.6km x 1.6 km

Vertical levels : 40 sigma levels

Minimum water depth : 10m

SUSPECTED CRUDE OIL SPILL DUE

TO GAS LEAK CAPTURED BY CG

DORMIER AT ONGC G1-9 WELL

SUSPECTED FUEL OIL SPILL DUE TO

MV MOL COMFORT SUNK

OIL SPILL ADVISORIES USING GNOME

SPILL ADVISORY ISSUED DURING

28.06.2013 ,01.00 hrs to 02.07.2013 23.00 hrs

RESULT : NO OIL SPILL REPORTED

SPILL ADVISORY ISSUED DURING

11.09.2012, 20.00 Hrs to 4.09.2012 23.00 Hrs

RESULT : NO OIL SPILL REPORTED

1. FORECASTS OF WAVE CHARACTERISTICS

(significant wave height, wave direction, swell height and

direction, wave period etc)

2. PREDICTIONS OF GENERAL CIRCULATIONS FEATURES

(SST and currents, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth)

3. TIDE PREDICTIONS

(astronomical tidal elevations - along the coast)

4. customized forecast products

(wind and wave Atlas, IVL estimates, specific services for

maritime boards etc.)

5. HIGH WAVE ALERTS

(during cyclones and other extreme weather conditions)

6. SPECIFIC SERVICES FOR ISLANDS

(wave forecasts for Andaman, Nicobar and Lakshwadeep

islands)

7. Real time validation System

8. Forecast in local languages

9. Forecast along ship-track

10. Wind potential assessments for ONGC

11. OSF for Maldives-RIMES

12. For Navy

13. OSF Web Map Services

14. Sea State Forecast for ports and Harbors'

• Global Forecast

• Regional – 7 Regions in Indian Ocean

• Coastal – 9 Coastal states of India

• Island – A&N and Lakshadweep

• Maldives

• Location Specific -100 locations

• Forecast along ship track

• customized forecast products

• High Wave Alerts

The products

Services Delivered

• Global Forecast

• Regional – 7 Regions in Indian Ocean

• Coastal – 9 Coastal states of India

• Island – A&N and Lakshadweep

• Location specific -100 locations

• Tidal forecast system for 178 locations

• Customized forecast products

• Real time validation System

• Forecast in local languages

• Forecast along ship-track

• Wind potential assessments for ONGC

• OSF for Maldives through RIMES

• Navy specific forecast products

• OSF Web Map Services

• High Wave Alerts / watch

• Sea State forecast for ports and Harbours

• Search and Rescue Operations etc.

Introduced 28 customized forecast products for a wide range of users

17Inauguration of products

The products

1. „HIGH WAVE ALERT‟, specifically notifies the areas along the Indian coast

that will experience the high waves (i.e. > 3.0 m or rapid increase in wave

heights) due to bad weather, approaching cyclone or freak waves originated

elsewhere and traveling towards the Indian coast.

2. "High Wave Alerts" are issued when the forecasted waves based on

mathematical models are higher than 3.0m, at approximately one degree

distance (110 km) from the coastline.

3. This is to bring to the notice of the coastal communities especially the fishing

community for their safety, taking into account their socio-economic

background.

4. We also actively interact with local NGOs for disseminating this information.

5. This alert is issued after seeing the model results, buoy observations, inter-

model comparisons, satellite data and other postings on the web.

The product-High wave alerts

Web Snapshot of High Wave Alert Issued for -ODISHA

Region Dates on which issued

(October, 2013)

Number of Alerts

issued

Parameters covered

Andaman 08,09,10 3 SWH, swells, currents,winds, tide,

rainfall

Nicobar 08,09,10 3 SWH, swells, currents,winds, tide,

rainfall

West Bengal

10,11,12,13 4 SWH, swells, currents, winds,

tide, rainfall

Odisha 10,11,12,13 4 SWH, swells, currents, winds,

tide, rainfall

Andhra Pradesh

10,11,12,13 4 SWH, swells, currents, winds,

tide, rainfall

No. of Alerts Issued to different regions

High Wave Alert Issued during Cyclone Phailin

Forecast services for Fisherman

ISLAND SPECIFIC FORECAST PRODUCTS

1. Pondicherry

2. Tuticorin

3. Tirunelveli

4. Vizag

5. Ratnagiri

6. Karwar,

etc ..

LOCATION SPECIFIC FORECAST

Global Wave Forecast

SWH

Wave Period

User specified products- shipping industry

User specified products- shipping industry

User specified products- OSF system for Maldives

User specified products- Web map Services

1. INCOIS launched a

customized product “

Sea State Forecast for

Port and harbors”.

2. Information is provided

for --major ports and –

minor ports.

3. Customized forecast on

Sea conditions around

the port areas are

provided two days in

advance.

4. Three major ports

started using it.

User specified products- Sea State Forecast for Port and harbors

Dr. M.S. Swaminathan inaugurated this voice SMS

dissemination of real time seas state information and

forecast on 7th August, 2012.

User specified products-Location-specific OSF and real-time information system for TN

The former Pakistan Foreign Minister, Prof Sartaj

Aziz inaugurating the Tamil webpage of Ocean

State Forecast and Fishery Information system

for South Tamil Nadu districts.

Validation of Forecast- Real-time

Real-time Validation of Wave forecast at Gopalpur,

Odisha

Significant Wave Height Forecast for 24 hours was more than 80 %

accurate

Comparison of forecast and observation

while Buoy is drifting

Validation of Forecast using Wave Rider buoys-Delayed mode

Error during South West monsoon

0

5

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45

50

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6

pe

rce

nta

ge

err

or

Off Paradweep (DS4)

Off Vizag (DS5)Pondichery coast

Tuticorin Coast (SW5)

Error during extreme conditions

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Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6

Pe

rce

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AKASHNARGISSIDR

Error in Significant Wave height Forecast

Validation of Forecast using Wave Rider buoys-Delayed mode

2-AUG-20102300hrs

3-AUG-20101100hrs

Comparison of tide estimate with the observationLocation : JNPT (72o56'43”E, 18o56'24”N)

JNPT72o56'43”E, 18o56'24”N

Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts are compared with RAMA buoy observations

Delayed Mode Validation

Temperature profiles simulated by ROMS model is compared with the ARGO observations

Delayed Mode Validation

OIL SPILL TRAJECTORY HINDCAST- AUGUST-2011 CASE STUDY

RED LINE : OIL SPILL SIGNATURE FROM SAR DATA

BLACK LINE : GNOME MODEL OUTPUT

MODEL : GNOME

FORCING : ECMWF wind forecast and ROMS tidal current estimates

(adopted from Henrique and. Alves, 2006).

Ship-mounted Wave height meter

Validation of user specific Forecast products

RegionCorre-

lation

Bias

(m)RMSE

Scatter

index (%)

First Day Forecast

TNIO 0.86 0.259 0.407 31.84

TSIO 0.99 0.267 0.427 22.67

ETSI 0.99 -0.209 0.654 22.32

Second Day Forecast

TNIO 0.88 0.265 0.393 31.1

TSIO 0.99 0.253 0.425 22.62

ETSI 0.99 -0.241 0.658 22.48

Validation of forecast along Shipping Routes during

Wave Height Meter Installed in ORV Sagar Nidhi

Manuscript is under finalisation

Internet

Radio Ala 90.8

FM Kakinada

Karwar

RadioEDB

device

Primary Mode

Primary Mode Primary Mode

Dissemination System

Mobile

Primary Mode &Secondary Mode

Village Information CenterSecondary Mode

Secondary Mode Secondary Mode

INCOIS and NGOS

Dissemination System

Center for Knowledge and Skills partnering with INCOIS for forecast information relating to tide, wind speed and rainfall is actively disseminating the same to the community in Sundarbans region in West Bengal. The manually operated display boards, which carry the Tide and Wind Information System (TWIS) has been recognised by DIP-ECHO, the Humanitarian Aid agency for European Commission as the best model for early warning that can be replicated.

Dissemination system

Hon’ble Chief Minister of

Kerala, Shri. Oommen Chandy

inaugurated the Malayalam

web site on "Ocean State

Forecast and Fishery

Information System” on 16

July, 2011 in Vizhinjam,

Thiruvananthapuram

Inauguration of SMS

dissemination of Ocean State

Forecast for Bhatkal, Uttara

kannada May 28, 2012.

Dissemination efforts-Highlights

RADIO

BENZIGER

BROADCAST

Through Community RadioInauguration of the

dissemination of OSF

information for Kollam region

(useful for ~20,000 fishermen)

through Benziger Radio, a

Community Radio by Sri Shibu

Baby John, Labour Minister,

kerala on 08/07/2012 at Kollam,

Kerala.

@Bhatkal

since 29 May, 2012

4370 International users from 104 countries

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OSF usage

INCOIS-MSSRF Fisheries help line status report

Details of Particulars Help line Enquiries Upto

July 2012

Help Line Enquiries on August

2012

Total

Ocean State Forecast information 1625

(76 % of total)

287

(80 % of total)

1912

(77 % of total)

Cyclone Warnings 338 - 338

Rainfall information 14 23 37

Potential Fishing zone information 154 34 188

Government Schemes for fishermen 34 1 35

Marine Biodiversity Conservation 13 1 14

Fishing Technologies 46 2 48

Fish value added preparation and market linkages and related

subsidy schemes

16 1 17

Education related to fishermen children 7 1 8

Feed back about help line services 43 7 50

Others 35 2 37

Total 2132 359 2491

OSF usage

OSF usage

Value-added services

1.For offshore industry (ONGC)

Wind Resource Assessment in the

western Offshore field for offshore

wind farming

2. For Navy

Preparation of Coastal

Modelling data for Indian Navy 3. In collaboration with RIMES

OSF for maldives & Seychelles

islands.

PONDICHERY

PONDICHERY

RATNAGIRI

VISAKHAPATNAM

KARAIKAL

Interaction meetings at site

Interaction meetings at INCOIS

48

Feedback

We are blessed with the helpline facility for delivering OSF information and this

facility plays a significant role in our lives in such a way it my team and me

proceed for any fishing activity without any fear –

-Antony, 28, Fisherman, Kolachal, TN.

PMSSS on behalf of the target communities expresses its sincere appreciation

and thanks to INCOIS for its valuable, timely advise, support and guidance

during the emergency situation

- PMSSS, TN.

The OSF data/images are very accurate and useful which keeps us updated

during sailing. The OSF reports are very important for our passenger vessels

sailing always in low pressure areas like Andaman sea-

-Master MV Swarajdweep, SCI.

It has been observed during the recent operations that the forecast provided

by INCOIS has closely matched with that of the actuals and has been well

appreciated by the operation co-coordinator-

Commander Mangal Kakkad, Navy.

• User demanded and priority based

• End to end Forecast service System

• Community based Real time observation and Validation

systems.

• Exploiting the latest technologies (SMS, email, social

networks, electronic display boards etc) for the dissemination

• Noval ways for popularization (religious, spiritual and political

leaders for popularization).

• Focussed research and development to improve the quality of

the services

• Periodic evaluation of the services considering user

feedbacks

• Collaboration with NGOs for reaching out to the coastal

population

Thus, Indian Ocean Forecast System is……………..