Climate Change and Planning of Cities:

findings from AR4 IPCC

Prof Ogunlade R DavidsonCo-Chair, IPCC Working Group III

University of Sierra Leone

Sustainable Cities Summit

London, England 22 November, 2007

Contents of Lecture

• About IPCC

• Introduction

• Science of Climate Change

• Adaptation to Climate Change

• Mitigation strategies

• Conclusions

About the IPCC• Founded in 1988 by UNEP and WMO for providing the world policy

community with updated information on climate change• It assess research findings and undertake limited methodological work,

but do not make recommendations

• Assessment is based only peer-reviewed literature and limited grey literature under specific conditions

• Authors are from academic, industrial and NGO experts and fall into three categories

– Convening Lead Author (CLA)

– Lead Author (LA)

– Contributing Author (CA)

• Reviews by independent Experts and Governments

• Policy relevant, but NOT policy prescriptive

• Full report and technical summary: reviwed by experts and accepted by governments

• Summary for policymakers: government approval

Working Group III

Mitigation

Netherland/Sierra Leone

WGIII co-chairs

Working Group I

ScienceUSA/China

WGI co-chairs

Working Group II Impacts and adaptation

UK/Argentina

WGII co-chairs

Task force on National GHG

Inventories

Japan/Brazil

NGGIP co-chairs

Over 3000 Experts, Authors, Contributors, Reviewers

Technical Support Unit

USA

Technical Support Unit

UK

Technical Support Unit

Netherlands

Technical Support Unit

Japan

IPCC Bureau

IPCC chair IPCC Secretariat WMO/UNEP

IPCC First Assessmen

t Report

IPCC First Assessmen

t Report

IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report

IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report

IPCC Third Assessment Report

IPCC Third Assessment ReportIPCC Second

Assessment Report

IPCC Second Assessment

Report

Climate Climate +Impact+Impact

ss

Climate Climate +Impacts+Impacts

EfficiencyEfficiency

EquityEquity

Climate Climate +Impacts+Impacts

EfficiencyEfficiencyClimate Climate

+Impacts+Impacts

EfficiencEfficiencyyEfficiencEfficiencyy

SustainabilitSustainabilityy+Developme+Developmentnt

SustainabilitSustainabilityy+Developme+Developmentnt

EquityEquityEquityEquity

(Efficiency)(Equity) (Sustainability

+Development) (Sustainable

Development)

(Sustainable

Development)

Continuing FocusContinuing Focus

New FocusNew FocusNew FocusNew FocusEmerging FocusEmerging Focus

The Evolution of Ideas within the IPCC

The Evolution of Ideas within the IPCC

The Climate Change is more a developmental than environmental Problem

• Carbon dioxide and other GHGs from fossil fuel combustion started in 1800s to present

• Concentration of GHGs causing warming of the earth• Significant increase in GHG emissions globally

Observations: All major GHG concentrations has increased

since Pre-industrial CO2 grew from 280 ppm in 1750 to 379 ppm in 2005

Methane grew from 715 ppb in 1750 to 1774 ppb 2005

N20 grew from270 ppb in 1750 to 319 ppb in 2005

OBSERVATION ON ATTRIBUTION

• Projected warming in the 21st century is expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic ocean

Impacts will vary by extent of adaptation, rate of temperature change, and socio-economic development pathway

Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor

Transport Sector offer major opportunities

• As economic activities grow in cities so are their GHG emissions

• Motorisation dominates transport activity that create other problems –congestion and air-pollution

• Transport accounts for 23% of GHG emissions and have increased by 27% since 1990

• This sector has the highest growth

Projected GHG and Mitigation Potential

• Current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices (SRES), could increase between 25-90% between 2000 and 2030

• Mitigation potential based on both bottom-up and top-down studies could offset the expected GHG emissions growth

• All sectors could contribute though their potential differ in quantity and sectors

Estimates do not include non-technical options such lifestyle changes

Energy Supply Mitigation Technologies

NOW 2030

Transport Mitigation TechnologiesNOW 2030

Commercial mitigation technologies in the building sector

NOW 2030

Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation

• Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings.

• Reduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport

• Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in light of reward systems

Public Policies will be crucial • Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005

levels by 2030 would require a large shift in the pattern of investment

• Many barriers for implementing low-cost mitigation measures

• An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors, hence policies are essential to create a carbon price (direct or indirect)

• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive.

• It is often more cost-effective to invest in end-use energy efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply

Climate Policy alone will not solve the climate change problem

• Macro-economic policy: taxes, subsidies, other fiscal policies, structural adjustment

• Trade policy: “embodied carbon”, removing barriers for low-carbon products, domestic energy sources

• Energy security policy : efficient energy use, domestic energy sources (low-high carbon)

• Access to modern energy: bio-energy, poverty tariffs• Air quality policy: clean fuel• Bank lending policies: lending for efficiency/ renewable

energy, avoid lock-in into old technologies in developing countries

• Insurance policy: Differentiated premiums, liability insurance exclusion, improved conditions for green products

Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policies

Sectors Non-climate policies -- Candidates for integrating climate concerns

Possible influence (% of global emissions)

Macro-economy Taxes, subsidies, other fiscal policies All GHG emissions (100 %)

Forestry Forest protection, sustainable management GHGs deforestation (7%)

Electricity Renewable energy, demand management, decreasing losses transport,/distribution

Electricity sector emissions (20 %)

Oil-imports Diversification energy sources/decrease intensity -> enhance energy security

GHGs from oil product imports (20 %)

Insurance buildings, infrastructure

Differentiated premiums, liability conditions, improved conditions green products

GHG emissions buildings, transport (20 %)

Bank lending Strategy/policy, lending projects accounting for options emission limitations

Notably development projects (25%)

Rural energy Policies promoting LPG, kerosene and electricity for cooking

Extra emissions over biomass (<2 %)

Lower stabilisation level require global emissions to go down early

• Lower stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or lower) require major policies and government support: – RD&D efforts

– Investments in new technologies

– Tax credits

– Standard setting

– Technology development and transfer

– Market creation

• An effective carbon-price signal could realize significant mitigation potential

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Wo

ld C

O2

Em

iss

ion

s (

GtC

)

E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq

C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq

B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq

A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

Stabilization targets:

Post-SRES (max)

Post-SRES (min)

Eq

uil

ibriu

m g

lob

al

mea

n t

em

pera

tu

re

inc

rease

ove

r

pre

ind

us

tria

l(°C

)

GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Wo

ld C

O2

Em

iss

ion

s (

GtC

)

E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq

C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq

B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq

A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

Stabilization targets:

Post-SRES (max)

Post-SRES (min)

Eq

uil

ibriu

m g

lob

al

mea

n t

em

pera

tu

re

inc

rease

ove

r

pre

ind

us

tria

l(°C

)

GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Stabilization targets:

Post-SRES (max)

Post-SRES (min)

Eq

uil

ibriu

m g

lob

al

mea

n t

em

pera

ture

inc

rease

ove

r

pre

ind

us

tria

l(°C

)

GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Stabilization targets:

Post-SRES (max)

Post-SRES (min)

Eq

uil

ibriu

m g

lob

al

mea

n t

em

pera

ture

inc

rease

ove

r

pre

ind

us

tria

l(°C

)

GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)

Development path as important as specific climate mitigation policies

Development path with HIGH

base emissions

Development path with LOW

emissions

Climate policy can have Positive or negative effects

Non-climate policies

can influence GHG emissions

Conclusions

• Global warming is equivocal and early action by governments are needed to reduce serious climate risks

• Large number of technologies are available now and in The near future to offset the GHG emissions

• Linking sustainable development aspirations with climate policies provide governments the opportunity to avert the possible climate threats

Thank you for your attention

Further InformationContact

University of Sierra LeoneFreetown, Sierra Leone.Tel. No. 232-22-223340Fax. No 232-22-223270

Email: ogunladedavidson@hotmail.com