Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

The phenomenon of The phenomenon of population changes population changes

in a country over in a country over time.time.

4 Stages:4 Stages:

1.1. Pre-transitionPre-transition

2.2. Early transitionEarly transition

3.3. Late transitionLate transition

4.4. Post transitionPost transition

Pre-transitionPre-transitionStage OneStage One

Increase in birth and death rateIncrease in birth and death rate

Result: little/no population increaseResult: little/no population increase

What is pre-transition?What is pre-transition?

The pre-transition stage is considered to The pre-transition stage is considered to be the most primitive stage of the be the most primitive stage of the demographic transition. About 1/3 of the demographic transition. About 1/3 of the world’s countries were in between the pre-world’s countries were in between the pre-transition and early transition stages. transition and early transition stages.

The pre-transition stage is when families in The pre-transition stage is when families in one region have much shorter life one region have much shorter life expectancy and large families. expectancy and large families.

The average age of a senior was between The average age of a senior was between 45-5045-50

There was a very high birth rate and There was a very high birth rate and extreme infant mortality.extreme infant mortality.

ExamplesExamples

There are few or no countries that are in the Pre-There are few or no countries that are in the Pre-Transition stage of population developmentTransition stage of population development

Countries such as Chad, Mali, (sub-Saharan) were Countries such as Chad, Mali, (sub-Saharan) were the most recent countries to evolve from the Pre-the most recent countries to evolve from the Pre-Transition stageTransition stage

All countries and areas of the world were once All countries and areas of the world were once Pre-transitional.Pre-transitional.

Some isolated island populations and remotely Some isolated island populations and remotely located indigenous cultures may still have many located indigenous cultures may still have many of the pre-transitional characteristics due to their of the pre-transitional characteristics due to their lack of exposure to outside cultures.lack of exposure to outside cultures.

Early transitionEarly transitionStage TwoStage Two

Decrease in death rate and increase in Decrease in death rate and increase in birth ratebirth rate

Result: Population increaseResult: Population increase

Early TransitionEarly Transition Many third, fourth, and fifth world countries Many third, fourth, and fifth world countries

are still at this stage. In early transition you are still at this stage. In early transition you will see a very big drop in the death rate. The will see a very big drop in the death rate. The birth rates are also remaining high. As a result birth rates are also remaining high. As a result of this an increase in population occurred. of this an increase in population occurred. This stage is when Earth’s population rose This stage is when Earth’s population rose from one billion (1850) to six billion (2000).from one billion (1850) to six billion (2000).

This population increase was mainly caused This population increase was mainly caused by: The improvements in public health, water by: The improvements in public health, water quality, improvements in sewage systems all quality, improvements in sewage systems all caused by the industrial revolutioncaused by the industrial revolution

About one-third of the world’s countries About one-third of the world’s countries have completed this transition. have completed this transition. However, about another third of all However, about another third of all countries, plus the northern states of countries, plus the northern states of India — in total, about 1.5 billion people India — in total, about 1.5 billion people — remain in the transition’s early or — remain in the transition’s early or middle phases. Most are in sub-Saharan middle phases. Most are in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Others are Africa and the Middle East. Others are scattered across southern Asia and Latin scattered across southern Asia and Latin America.America.

Examples of Early TransitionExamples of Early Transition

The following graph shows the population The following graph shows the population in Angola for the year 2005. It is in Angola for the year 2005. It is between pre and early transition. The between pre and early transition. The birth rate is still very high but many birth rate is still very high but many children are dying at a young age. Also children are dying at a young age. Also the graph the graph

Demonstrates that Demonstrates that people are not people are not living to be living to be very oldvery old

Late transitionLate transition(stage Three)(stage Three)

Decrease in birth and death rateDecrease in birth and death rate

Result: Population decreaseResult: Population decrease

Late transition…Late transition…

Push the population into stability Push the population into stability through declining birth rates. through declining birth rates.

Changes in death rates are primarily Changes in death rates are primarily due to the change in a population. due to the change in a population.

But in the end…But in the end…

Towards the end of stage three, fertility rate falls to Towards the end of stage three, fertility rate falls to replacement levels—the level of fertility where replacement levels—the level of fertility where women (on average) are only having enough women (on average) are only having enough children to replace themselves and their partner in children to replace themselves and their partner in the pop.the pop.

Although it may fall into replacement levels, Although it may fall into replacement levels, population growth continues in relation of population population growth continues in relation of population momentum—the tendency for pop. Growth to momentum—the tendency for pop. Growth to maintain beyond the time that replacement fertility maintain beyond the time that replacement fertility achieves because of a relatively high focus on achieves because of a relatively high focus on people in the childbearing years. people in the childbearing years.

Post-transitionPost-transition(stage four)(stage four)

The birth rate is relatively equal to the death The birth rate is relatively equal to the death raterate

Result:Result:A general stabilization of the populationA general stabilization of the population

DefinitionDefinition

Stage 4/ Post Transition-Stage 4/ Post Transition-when when populations reached similarly low populations reached similarly low birth and death rates so that birth and death rates so that populations would become populations would become essentially stableessentially stable

ExplanationExplanation

Post transition is basically when Post transition is basically when there is a greater percentage of there is a greater percentage of deaths than births.deaths than births.

EX. 1000 people die in one month EX. 1000 people die in one month and 999 people are born that same and 999 people are born that same month.month.

Decline in birth rates…Decline in birth rates…Towards the end of the 19Towards the end of the 19thth century, developing countries century, developing countries

showed a decline in birth rates. Several factors are:showed a decline in birth rates. Several factors are:

Child death encouraged parents that future children may Child death encouraged parents that future children may not survive; parents may cease having children due to this.not survive; parents may cease having children due to this.

Increased urbanization may change traditional values. The Increased urbanization may change traditional values. The cost of having children while living in urban areas are cost of having children while living in urban areas are exceedingly high. exceedingly high.

Women become more educated, and joining the workforce Women become more educated, and joining the workforce may keep them busy. may keep them busy.

Improvements in contraceptive technology.Improvements in contraceptive technology. The role of women in societyThe role of women in society Changes in traditional cultural role models (religion)Changes in traditional cultural role models (religion)

Who Is This Happening To?Who Is This Happening To?

Countries that are at this stage (Total Countries that are at this stage (Total Fertility Rate of less than 2.5 in 1997) Fertility Rate of less than 2.5 in 1997) include: United States, Canada, Australia, include: United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and most of Europe, Sweden.New Zealand, and most of Europe, Sweden.

China and some South-Eastern Asian China and some South-Eastern Asian nations are experiencing a ‘Birth Dearth’ nations are experiencing a ‘Birth Dearth’ but due to a hyper-expanded original but due to a hyper-expanded original population, they will be much later population, they will be much later evolving to a post transitional society evolving to a post transitional society because of their population method. because of their population method.

SwedenSweden

Visual AidVisual Aid

Possible Effects of the Birth Possible Effects of the Birth DearthDearth

Population should be 2.1 to replace itself. Population should be 2.1 to replace itself. It is not, why?It is not, why?– Family structuresFamily structures

more single parentsmore single parents fewer children per familyfewer children per family less family orientationless family orientation

– Role of WomenRole of Women birth controlbirth control workwork marriage, church, morality, equalitymarriage, church, morality, equality

What problems do you foresee?What problems do you foresee?

Problems Around UsProblems Around Us– Family structuresFamily structures

One vehicleOne vehicle (car industry changes)(car industry changes) Apartment living (housing devalues, construction Apartment living (housing devalues, construction

companies fail)companies fail) Purchases (stores downsize, disappear)Purchases (stores downsize, disappear)

– Aging PopulationAging Population stressed healthcare (reforms)stressed healthcare (reforms) fewer cars ( change in transportation)fewer cars ( change in transportation) government representation (more older politicians-government representation (more older politicians-

focal change)focal change)– WorkforceWorkforce

younger, less experience (changes to education)younger, less experience (changes to education) job shopping (salaries rise therefore prices rise)job shopping (salaries rise therefore prices rise) What else?What else?

Financial problemsFinancial problems

Overall the shifts will cause a Overall the shifts will cause a devaluing of assets held by the devaluing of assets held by the elderly (inflation and interest rates). elderly (inflation and interest rates). Financial institutions will be forced to Financial institutions will be forced to pay out large payments for interest. pay out large payments for interest. Financial markets will be cash Financial markets will be cash starved ( older people will protect starved ( older people will protect limited assets).limited assets).

What do you see in the end?What do you see in the end?

Poor elderly (largest portion of your Poor elderly (largest portion of your population)population)

Starved financial marketsStarved financial markets