Inter-County Energy Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast Prepared by: East Kentucky Power...

Inter-County Energy Cooperative Corporation

2006 Load Forecast

Prepared by:East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc.

Forecasting and Market Analysis Department

June 2006

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Blank PageBlank Page

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Table of Contents• Introduction and Executive Summary 5• Narrative 16• Key Assumptions 22• Methodology and Results 30

– Residential Forecast 35– Small Commercial 40– Large Commercial 42– Peak Day Weather Scenarios 44

• RUS Form 341 48

Page Number

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IntroductionExecutive Summary

Inter-County Energy Cooperative Corporation (Inter-County Energy), located in Danville, Kentucky, is an electric distribution cooperative that serves members in 12 counties. This load forecast report contains Inter-County Energy’s long-range forecast of energy and peak demand.

Inter-County Energy and its power supplier, East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), worked jointly to prepare the load forecast. Factors considered in preparing the forecast include the national and local economy, population and housing trends, service area industrial development, electric price, household income, weather, and appliance efficiency changes.

EKPC prepared a preliminary load forecast, which was reviewed by Inter-County Energy for reasonability. Final projections reflect a rigorous analysis of historical data combined with the experience and judgment of the manager and staff of Inter-County Energy. Key assumptions are reported beginning on page 22.

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Executive Summary (continued)

The load forecast is prepared biannually as part of the overall planning cycle at EKPC and Inter-County Energy. Cooperation helps to ensure that the forecast meets both parties’ needs. Inter-County Energy uses the forecast in developing two-year work plans, long-range work plans, and financial forecasts. EKPC uses the forecast in areas of marketing analysis, transmission planning, generation planning, demand-side planning, and financial forecasting.

The complete load forecast for Inter-County Energy is reported in Table 1-1. Residential and commercial sales, total purchases, winter and summer peak demands, and load factor are presented for the years 1990 through 2025.

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Year

Residential Sales

(MWh)

Seasonal Sales

(MWh)

Small Comm. Sales

(MWh)

Public BuildingsSales

(MWh)

Large Comm. Sales

(MWh)

Other Sales

(MWh)

Total Sales

(MWh)Office Use

(MWh)%

Loss

Purchased Power(MWh)

1990 180,041 0 15,265 0 1,571 0 196,877 327 6.8 211,5161991 194,832 0 16,546 0 1,634 0 213,012 354 7.7 231,1461992 199,602 0 17,232 0 1,685 0 218,519 331 7.0 235,3241993 221,482 0 20,168 0 1,615 0 243,265 365 6.6 260,7161994 221,419 0 21,858 0 1,739 0 245,016 358 6.4 262,0271995 240,863 0 22,601 0 11,864 0 275,328 335 6.4 294,4071996 248,852 0 24,119 0 16,176 0 289,147 400 8.3 315,8131997 260,297 0 27,140 0 13,078 0 300,515 326 6.4 321,5141998 272,078 0 29,251 0 13,025 0 314,353 305 5.6 333,2681999 284,017 0 32,222 0 15,338 0 331,577 312 6.3 354,0392000 308,872 0 34,730 0 16,857 0 360,459 355 6.4 385,3792001 314,608 0 39,597 0 14,515 0 368,720 340 3.9 384,2242002 342,404 0 42,092 0 15,544 0 400,040 346 4.5 419,3782003 343,075 0 44,491 0 16,752 0 404,318 324 4.9 425,6102004 341,458 0 52,697 0 17,322 0 411,477 303 5.4 435,4802005 349,997 0 74,901 0 17,847 0 442,745 477 4.6 464,5282006 355,144 0 78,980 0 19,695 0 453,819 500 5.0 478,2302007 361,592 0 85,757 0 33,192 0 480,541 500 5.0 506,3592008 371,137 0 88,925 0 33,657 0 493,719 500 5.0 520,2302009 381,525 0 91,343 0 34,123 0 506,991 500 5.0 534,2012010 391,570 0 94,289 0 34,589 0 520,447 500 5.0 548,3652011 400,069 0 97,809 0 35,054 0 532,932 500 5.0 561,5082012 410,160 0 100,842 0 35,520 0 546,522 500 5.0 575,8132013 420,128 0 103,727 0 35,985 0 559,840 500 5.0 589,8322014 429,344 0 107,109 0 36,451 0 572,905 500 5.0 603,5842015 438,325 0 110,664 0 36,916 0 585,905 500 5.0 617,2692016 447,680 0 114,197 0 45,646 0 607,523 500 5.0 640,0242017 456,653 0 117,722 0 46,112 0 620,486 500 5.0 653,6692018 466,211 0 121,173 0 46,577 0 633,961 500 5.0 667,8532019 475,944 0 124,640 0 47,043 0 647,627 500 5.0 682,2392020 486,725 0 127,968 0 47,508 0 662,202 500 5.0 697,5812021 497,355 0 131,180 0 47,974 0 676,509 500 5.0 712,6412022 507,782 0 134,591 0 48,440 0 690,812 500 5.0 727,6972023 518,023 0 138,148 0 57,169 0 713,341 500 5.0 751,4112024 528,995 0 141,724 0 57,635 0 728,354 500 5.0 767,2152025 538,773 0 145,368 0 58,100 0 742,242 500 5.0 781,833

2006 Load ForecastInter-County Energy

MWh Summary

Table 1-1

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Winter Summer

Season

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

PurchasedPower(MWh)

Load Factor(%)

1989 - 90 66.1 1990 44.7 1990 211,516 36.5%1990 - 91 57.8 1991 48.9 1991 231,146 45.7%1991 - 92 67.0 1992 47.3 1992 235,324 40.1%1992 - 93 63.5 1993 53.8 1993 260,716 46.8%1993 - 94 82.5 1994 52.6 1994 262,027 36.3%1994 - 95 70.7 1995 60.2 1995 294,407 47.5%1995 - 96 88.4 1996 60.7 1996 315,813 40.8%1996 - 97 74.8 1997 65.9 1997 321,514 49.1%1997 - 98 77.7 1998 69.1 1998 333,268 49.0%1998 - 99 95.7 1999 77.5 1999 354,039 42.2%1999 - 00 96.9 2000 77.7 2000 385,379 45.4%2000 - 01 110.4 2001 79.6 2001 384,224 39.7%2001 - 02 102.4 2002 85.9 2002 419,378 46.8%2002 - 03 124.1 2003 83.3 2003 425,610 39.2%2003 - 04 127.7 2004 83.3 2004 435,480 38.9%2004 - 05 125.8 2005 92.1 2005 464,528 42.1%2005 - 06 119.3 2006 92.7 2006 478,230 45.8%2006 - 07 138.9 2007 97.9 2007 506,359 41.6%2007 - 08 142.1 2008 100.1 2008 520,230 41.8%2008 - 09 146.3 2009 102.8 2009 534,201 41.7%2009 - 10 150.1 2010 105.2 2010 548,365 41.7%2010 - 11 153.5 2011 107.7 2011 561,508 41.7%2011 - 12 156.9 2012 109.9 2012 575,813 41.9%2012 - 13 161.1 2013 112.6 2013 589,832 41.8%2013 - 14 164.7 2014 115.1 2014 603,584 41.8%2014 - 15 168.2 2015 117.7 2015 617,269 41.9%2015- 16 173.1 2016 121.9 2016 640,024 42.2%2016 - 17 177.2 2017 124.8 2017 653,669 42.1%2017 - 18 180.9 2018 127.4 2018 667,853 42.1%2018 - 19 184.7 2019 130.0 2019 682,239 42.2%2019-2020 188.1 2020 132.5 2020 697,581 42.3%2020-2021 192.6 2021 135.5 2021 712,641 42.2%2021-2022 196.5 2022 138.3 2022 727,697 42.3%2022-2023 202.1 2023 143.0 2023 751,411 42.5%2023-2024 205.4 2024 145.5 2024 767,215 42.6%2024-2025 209.8 2025 148.7 2025 781,833 42.5%

Inter-County Energy2006 Load Forecast

Peaks Summary

Table 1-1 (continued)

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Executive Summary (continued)

Overall Results

• Total sales are projected to grow by 2.6 percent a year for the period 2005-2025, compared to a 3.4 percent growth projected in the 2004 load forecast for the period 2004-2024. Results shown in Table 1-2 and Figure 1-1.

• Winter and summer peak demands for the same period indicate annual growth of 2.9 and 2.4 percent, respectively. Annual peaks shown in Figure 1-2.

• Load factor will increase slightly to approximately 42% for the forecast period. See Figure 1-3.

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Executive SummaryOverall Results (continued)

TimePeriod Residential

Small Commercial

Large Commercial

Total Sales

1995-2000 5.1% 9.0% 7.3% 5.5%2000-2005 2.5% 16.6% 1.1% 4.2%2005-2010 2.3% 4.7% 14.1% 3.3%2010-2015 2.3% 3.3% 1.3% 2.4%2015-2020 2.1% 2.9% 5.2% 2.5%2020-2025 2.1% 2.6% 4.1% 2.3%

1995-2005 3.8% 12.7% 4.2% 4.9%2005-2015 2.3% 4.0% 7.5% 2.8%2015-2025 2.1% 2.8% 4.6% 2.4%

10 Year Growth Rates

5 Year Growth Rates

Table 1-2Inter-County Energy2006 Load Forecast

Summary of Sales Growth

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Figure 1-1 Average Annual Growth in Sales 2005-2025

2.2%

3.4%

6.1%

2.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Residential Small Commercial

Large Commercial

Total Sales

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Figure 1-2Peak Demand Forecast Winter and Summer

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Su

m O

f S

ub

stat

ion

s P

eak

Dem

and

(M

W)

Winter History Winter Forecast Summer History Summer Forecast

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Figure 1-3Annual System Load Factor

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

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Narrative

Inter-County Energy is a Touchstone Energy Cooperative with its headquarters in Danville, Kentucky and a district office in Lebanon, Kentucky. With over 3,500 miles of distribution lines, the cooperative serves nearly 25,000 customers in the rural areas of the following central Kentucky counties: Boyle, Garrard, Lincoln, Casey, Marion, Mercer, Washington, Taylor, Madison, Rockcastle, Larue, and Nelson. Kentucky Utilities Company, an investor owned utility, provides electric service to all of the urban and small towns in the area.

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Narrative (continued)

Counties ServedInter-County Energy provides service to members in 12 counties.

Figure 1-4

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Other Counties(6)

Mercer County

Marion County

Lincoln County

Garrard County

Casey County

Boyle County

Number of Members

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In recent years, changes have taken place in the economy of the area. Traditionally, tobacco, dairy and beef cattle farming were the financial backbone of the communities served by the cooperative. Hardwood timber, fruits and vegetables supplemented the agricultural base of the area. More recently, employment opportunities have increased in the urban centers due to recruitment of commercial, industrial, retail, medical and service employers. As a result many of the small farms that previously operated and supported the economy of the area have become part-time operations or have been purchased by adjoining land owners to form larger farms.

Most of the counties served by Inter-County Energy have one or more industrial parks. The Danville/Boyle County Industrial Park functions as a regional hub for employment in the area served by Inter-County Energy. The Danville/Boyle County Industrial Foundation has been very successful in attracting light industry as well as Fortune 500 Companies to the park. The majority of existing industry in the Danville/Boyle County Park is served by Kentucky Utilities. However, the park has numerous available properties that will be served by the cooperative when they are developed.

The Lebanon/Marion County Industrial Foundation also has been successful in recruiting commercial and industrial customers to Marion County. The largest industrial customers served by Inter-County Energy have facilities in the Lebanon/Marion County Industrial Park. Those industries are: NSU, Morton Plastics, Montebello, TBMK, and Joy Mining.

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There is a new industrial park in Lincoln County. Inter-County Energy, working closely with the Industrial Development Director of Lincoln County, has been very active in recruiting customers to this area. A speculative building is being considered for this park.

In addition to the industrial growth, there has been substantial additions to the large commercial class in large part due to Wal-Mart. Stanford’s new Super Wal-Mart opened in July of 2005 and two additional Super Centers will be opening their doors by the first quarter of 2007, in Harrodsburg and Lebanon.

Makers Mark Distillery is another major commercial customer of Inter-County Energy. Located in Loretta, Kentucky, Makers Mark Distillery has been a customer since 1958.

Several new highway projects have been completed in the cooperative’s service area that should benefit the cooperative. Improvements in Highway 68 from Danville to Lebanon provide a much safer route to the western portion of Inter-County Energy’s service area. A new section of Highway 127 from Danville into Casey County has created a good corridor to the south and a new section of Highway 150 east of Stanford offers direct access to a new fishing and recreation lake in the Cedar Creek area of eastern Lincoln County.

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Plans to link the eastern section of the service territory to Interstate 75 near Mt. Vernon are being studied by the state and a new section of Highway 27 from Jessamine County through Garrard County and into Lincoln County has been proposed by the state. An improved highway system will enhance and grow the economy of the area.

The customer base of Inter-County Energy is overwhelmingly residential and is likely to remain that way for the foreseeable future. Since kWh usage is so dominated by the residential class, future kWh projections for the cooperative are quite reliable.

Inter-County Energy should continue a steady rate of growth in sales and customers. Efforts by the cooperative and local industrial leaders to promote economic development in the area served by the cooperative will result in greater power sales to all classes of customers including the commercial and industrial sectors.

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Narrative (continued) Inter-County Energy MembersDemographic Information

• There is an average of 2.37 people per household.

• Approximately 50% of all homes are headed by someone age 55 or greater.

• 24% of homes have farm operations, with beef cattle being most popular.

• Nearly 30% of all homes served are less than 10 years old.

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Key AssumptionsPower Cost and Rates

• EKPC’s wholesale power cost forecast used in this load forecast comes from the following report: “Twenty-Year Financial Forecast, Equity Development Plan, 2006-2025”, dated January 2006.

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Key Assumptions (continued)

Economic

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

1990 222,596 0.5% 102,517 -0.9% 73,322 2.0% 6.8% -6.6% $23,344 -2.1% $4,116 1.7% $18,491 1.2%

1991 224,983 1.1% 102,617 0.1% 73,717 0.5% 9.2% 35.8% $23,654 1.3% $4,241 3.0% $18,850 1.9%

1992 228,383 1.5% 103,826 1.2% 76,627 3.9% 7.7% -16.0% $23,699 0.2% $4,492 5.9% $19,669 4.3%

1993 231,215 1.2% 106,384 2.5% 78,297 2.2% 7.0% -10.0% $23,246 -1.9% $4,478 -0.3% $19,368 -1.5%

1994 234,324 1.3% 106,212 -0.2% 80,085 2.3% 5.9% -15.5% $22,986 -1.1% $4,576 2.2% $19,529 0.8%

1995 237,430 1.3% 107,381 1.1% 82,276 2.7% 6.0% 2.6% $23,206 1.0% $4,523 -1.2% $19,049 -2.5%

1996 240,075 1.1% 107,437 0.1% 82,336 0.1% 6.8% 12.4% $23,326 0.5% $4,667 3.2% $19,440 2.1%

1997 242,082 0.8% 109,562 2.0% 82,257 -0.1% 7.9% 16.2% $23,915 2.5% $4,940 5.9% $20,407 5.0%

1998 244,142 0.9% 111,775 2.0% 80,254 -2.4% 10.0% 26.3% $24,504 2.5% $5,165 4.5% $21,156 3.7%

1999 246,214 0.8% 109,510 -2.0% 80,966 0.9% 6.9% -30.4% $25,186 2.8% $5,186 0.4% $21,061 -0.4%

2000 248,478 0.9% 110,838 1.2% 85,552 5.7% 4.6% -33.6% $24,701 -1.9% $5,501 6.1% $22,137 5.1%

2001 249,784 0.5% 113,076 2.0% 84,420 -1.3% 6.6% 42.9% $24,395 -1.2% $5,525 0.4% $22,120 -0.1%

2002 252,132 0.9% 111,837 -1.1% 83,184 -1.5% 6.6% 0.8% $25,256 3.5% $5,635 2.0% $22,349 1.0%

2003 254,340 0.9% 118,912 6.3% 84,155 1.2% 7.0% 4.9% $25,296 0.2% $5,623 -0.2% $22,109 -1.1%

2004 256,709 0.9% 119,767 0.7% 85,502 1.6% 6.8% -2.6% $25,292 0.0% $5,695 1.3% $22,185 0.3%

2005 259,127 0.9% 120,583 0.7% 86,603 1.3% 6.4% -5.3% $25,394 0.4% $5,784 1.6% $22,321 0.6%

2006 261,555 0.9% 121,422 0.7% 87,807 1.4% 6.2% -3.2% $25,292 -0.4% $5,880 1.7% $22,479 0.7%

2007 263,960 0.9% 122,241 0.7% 88,935 1.3% 6.2% 0.2% $25,394 0.4% $5,983 1.8% $22,665 0.8%

2008 266,325 0.9% 123,013 0.6% 89,888 1.1% 6.1% -1.7% $25,490 0.4% $6,087 1.7% $22,856 0.8%

2009 268,666 0.9% 123,764 0.6% 90,768 1.0% 6.0% -1.1% $25,578 0.3% $6,194 1.8% $23,054 0.9%

2010 270,951 0.9% 124,442 0.5% 91,364 0.7% 6.1% 1.2% $25,657 0.3% $6,298 1.7% $23,243 0.8%

2015 282,217 0.8% 127,756 0.5% 94,163 0.6% 6.2% 0.4% $25,994 0.3% $6,805 1.6% $24,112 0.7%

2020 293,610 0.8% 131,444 0.6% 98,605 0.9% 6.0% -0.9% $26,093 0.1% $7,353 1.6% $25,043 0.8%

2025 304,974 0.8% 135,163 0.6% 103,230 0.9% 6.0% 0.1% $26,148 0.0% $7,909 1.5% $25,935 0.7%

2030 316,248 0.7% 138,778 0.5% 107,464 0.8% 6.0% 0.0% $26,181 0.0% $8,450 1.3% $26,719 0.6%

Notes: Wages & Per Capita Income are in constant 2006 dollars; Income is in millions of constant 2005 dollars.

Growth rates are average annual changes. Data for 2004 and 2005 are simulated.

Regional SummarySouth Economic Region History and Forecast

2006 Load Forecast

Unemployment Rate

Regional Income

Population Labor ForceTotal

EmploymentAverage Real

Wages

Forecast

Long-Term Forecast

Actual

Real Per Capita Income

EKPC’s source for economic forecasts is DRI-WEFA.

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Share of Regional Homes Served

Inter-County Energy Share of Regional Homes Served

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

Sh

are

(%

)

Inter-County Energy’s market share will steadily increase for the forecast period. See Figure 1-5 below.

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Household IncomeMembers’ Greatest Sources

Figure 1-6

Agriculture7%

Education5%

Construction11%

Other14%

Retirement35%

Retail & Service10%

Manufacturing18%

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Appliance Saturations

• Room air conditioner saturation is declining due to customers choosing central air conditioning systems.

• Appliance efficiency trends are accounted for in the model. The data is collected from Energy Information Administration, (EIA). See Figure 1-7.

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Saturation Rates Non HVAC Appliances

• Microwave Oven 94%

• Electric Range 93%

• Dishwasher 54%

• Freezer 58%

• Clothes Dryer 96%

• Personal Computer 54%

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Figure 1-7

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Efficiency Trend Update, 2005

Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends East South Central Region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Eff

icie

ncy

Rat

ing

Heat Pump Heating (HSPF)

Heat Pump Cooling (SEER)

Central Air (SEER)

Room Air (EER)

Water Heating (EF)

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Weather

• Weather data is from the Lexington Blue Grass Airport weather station.

• Normal weather, a 30-year average of historical temperatures, is assumed for the forecast years.

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Methodology and ResultsIntroduction

This section briefly describes the methodology used to develop the load forecast and presents results in tabular and graphical form for residential and commercial classifications. Table 1-3 through Table 1-5 shows historical data for Inter-County Energy as reported on RUS Form 736 and RUS Form 5.

A preliminary forecast is prepared during the first quarter depending on when Inter-County Energy experiences its winter peak. The first step is modeling the regional economy. Population, income, and employment are among the areas analyzed. The regional model results are used in combination with the historical billing information, appliance saturation data, appliance efficiency data, and weather data to develop the long range forecast.

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Table 1-3

YearkWh Purchased

And GeneratedChange kWh Sold Change kWh Loss

%

Loss

Annual

Load

Factor

Average

Number Of

Consumers

Miles

Of

Line

Consumers

Per Mile

Cost Of

Purchased

Power

Cents

Per

kWh

1993 260,716,049 243,264,761 17,086,293 6.6% 46.8% 17,754 2,937 6.0 $10,711,882 4.1

1994 262,027,437 0.5% 245,015,864 0.7% 16,653,686 6.4% 36.4% 18,195 2,955 6.2 $10,954,856 4.2

1995 294,407,168 12.4% 275,360,817 12.4% 18,711,491 6.4% 44.3% 18,637 2,984 6.2 $10,513,506 3.6

1996 315,812,779 7.3% 289,147,421 5.0% 26,264,944 8.3% 42.1% 19,253 3,025 6.4 $10,827,682 3.4

1997 321,514,478 1.8% 300,514,478 3.9% 20,674,129 6.4% 42.8% 19,958 3,062 6.5 $10,912,404 3.4

1998 333,267,832 3.7% 314,352,855 4.6% 18,609,825 5.6% 48.2% 20,659 3,106 6.7 $11,273,677 3.4

1999 354,039,395 6.2% 331,576,943 5.5% 22,150,185 6.3% 44.1% 21,408 3,139 6.8 $12,644,189 3.6

2000 385,379,200 8.9% 361,829,970 9.1% 23,194,622 6.0% 41.8% 22,161 3,192 6.9 $14,233,294 3.7

2001 384,224,090 -0.3% 368,719,539 1.9% 15,164,803 3.9% 41.0% 22,691 3,236 7.1 $15,257,113 4.1

2002 419,377,523 9.1% 400,046,093 8.5% 18,985,215 4.5% 48.1% 23,220 3,275 7.1 $16,211,586 3.9

2003 425,609,598 1.5% 404,317,773 1.1% 20,968,215 4.9% 39.7% 23,672 3,324 7.1 $17,263,079 4.1

2004 435,479,895 2.3% 411,476,785 1.8% 23,700,573 5.4% 39.9% 24,059 3,409 7.1 $19,229,243 4.4

2005 464,527,612 6.7% 442,642,736 7.6% 21,407,770 4.6% 42.9% 24,501 3,502 7.0 $24,176,063 5.2

5.7% 4.0

I nter-County Energy Comparative Annual Operating DataPeak

Demand

(MW)

63.5

82.2

75.8

85.8

85.6

78.9

Average

91.6

124.7

123.7

105.2

106.9

99.5

122.5

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Table 1-4

YearkWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

1993 221,481,566 0 20,168,235 1,614,960 0 0

1994 221,418,769 0.0% 0 21,858,295 8.4% 1,738,800 7.7% 0 0

1995 240,895,631 8.8% 0 22,600,936 3.4% 11,864,250 582.3% 0 0

1996 248,852,383 3.3% 0 24,118,767 6.7% 16,176,271 36.3% 0 0

1997 260,296,759 4.6% 0 27,139,559 12.5% 13,078,160 -19.2% 0 0

1998 272,077,678 4.5% 0 29,250,640 7.8% 13,024,537 -0.4% 0 0

1999 284,016,778 4.4% 0 32,222,163 10.2% 15,338,002 17.8% 0 0

2000 310,242,867 9.2% 0 34,729,661 7.8% 16,857,442 9.9% 0 0

2001 314,607,988 1.4% 0 39,596,951 14.0% 14,514,600 -13.9% 0 0

2002 342,409,571 8.8% 0 42,092,324 6.3% 15,544,198 7.1% 0 0

2003 343,075,063 0.2% 0 44,490,559 5.7% 16,752,151 7.8% 0 0

2004 341,457,727 -0.5% 0 52,697,290 18.4% 17,321,768 3.4% 0 0

2005 349,997,245 2.5% 0 74,854,095 42.0% 17,791,396 2.7% 0 0

2 Year 3,461,091 1.0% 15,181,768 29.7% 519,623 3.1%

5 Year 7,950,876 2.4% 8,024,887 16.6% 186,791 1.1%

10 Year 10,910,161 3.8% 5,225,316 12.7% 592,715 4.1%

Average Annual Change

I nter-County Energy Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial /

I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street

/ Highway

Lighting

Public

Authorities

Note: Reclassifications in 2004 and 2005

33

Table 1-5

Year Consumerskwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.

1993 17,303 1,067 0 450 3,735 1 134,580 0 0

1994 17,737 1,040 0 457 3,986 1 144,900 0 0

1995 18,173 1,105 0 462 4,077 2 494,344 0 0

1996 18,781 1,104 0 470 4,276 2 674,011 0 0

1997 19,486 1,113 0 471 4,802 1 1,089,847 0 0

1998 20,185 1,123 0 473 5,153 1 1,085,378 0 0

1999 20,932 1,131 0 475 5,653 1 1,278,167 0 0

2000 22,013 1,174 0 147 19,688 1 1,404,787 0 0

2001 22,552 1,163 0 138 23,911 1 1,209,550 0 0

2002 23,079 1,236 0 140 25,055 1 1,295,350 0 0

2003 23,525 1,215 0 146 25,394 1 1,396,013 0 0

2004 23,100 1,232 0 958 4,584 1 1,443,481 0 0

2005 21,647 1,347 0 2,853 2,186 1 1,482,616 0 0

Averages

10 Year 347 24 239 -189 0 98,827

5 Year -73 35 541 -3,500 0 15,566

2 Year -939 66 1,354 -11,604 0 43,302

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Consumers 434 436 608 705 699 747 1,081 539 527 446 -425 -1,453

kWh/ month -26 64 0 9 10 7 44 -12 74 -21 17 116

Annual Changes I n I nter-County Energy's Residential Class

I nter-County Energy Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial /

I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street /

Highway LightingPublic Authorities

34

Methodology and Results (continued)

The preliminary forecast was presented to Inter-County Energy staff. Changes were made to the forecast as needed based on new information, such as new large loads or subdivisions. In some instances, other assumptions were changed based on insights from Inter-County Energy staff. The forecast was reviewed by the Rural Utilities Services (RUS) Field Representative. Input from EKPC and Inter-County Energy results in the best possible forecast.

35


Residential ForecastResidential customers are analyzed by means of regression analysis with resulting coefficients used to prepare customer projections. Regressions for residential customers are typically a function of regional economic and demographic variables. Two variables that are very significant are the numbers of households by county in each member system's economic region and the percent of total households served by the member system. Table 1-6 and Figure 1-8 report Inter-County Energy’s customer forecast.

The residential energy sales were projected using a statistically adjusted end-use (SAE) approach. This method of modeling incorporates end-use forecasts and can be used to allocate the monthly and annual forecasts into end-use components. This method, like end-use modeling, requires detailed information about appliance saturation, appliance use, appliance efficiencies, household characteristics, weather characteristics, and demographic and economic information. The SAE approach segments the average household use into heating, cooling, and water heating end-use components. See Figure 1-9. This model accounts for appliance efficiency improvements. Table 1-6 reports Inter-County Energy’s energy forecast.

36

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

MonthlyAverage(kWh)

AnnualChange(kWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 16,118 931 180,0411991 16,451 333 2.1 987 56 6.0 194,832 14,791 8.21992 16,887 436 2.7 985 -2 -0.2 199,602 4,770 2.41993 17,303 416 2.5 1,067 82 8.3 221,482 21,880 11.01994 17,737 434 2.5 1,040 -26 -2.5 221,419 -63 0.01995 18,168 431 2.4 1,105 65 6.2 240,863 19,444 8.81996 18,774 606 3.3 1,105 0 0.0 248,852 7,990 3.31997 19,477 703 3.7 1,114 9 0.8 260,297 11,444 4.61998 20,174 697 3.6 1,124 10 0.9 272,078 11,781 4.51999 20,917 743 3.7 1,132 8 0.7 284,017 11,939 4.42000 21,991 1,074 5.1 1,170 39 3.4 308,872 24,855 8.82001 22,522 531 2.4 1,164 -6 -0.5 314,608 5,736 1.92002 23,039 517 2.3 1,238 74 6.4 342,404 27,796 8.82003 23,476 437 1.9 1,218 -21 -1.7 343,075 671 0.22004 23,100 106 0.5 1,207 -11 -0.9 341,458 -1,617 -0.52005 21,647 541 2.3 1,209 2 0.2 349,997 8,540 2.52006 24,637 514 2.1 1,201 -8 -0.6 355,144 5,147 1.52007 25,148 511 2.1 1,198 -3 -0.3 361,592 6,448 1.82008 25,655 507 2.0 1,206 7 0.6 371,137 9,545 2.62009 26,161 506 2.0 1,215 10 0.8 381,525 10,389 2.82010 26,673 512 2.0 1,223 8 0.7 391,570 10,044 2.62011 27,157 484 1.8 1,228 4 0.3 400,069 8,500 2.22012 27,651 494 1.8 1,236 8 0.7 410,160 10,091 2.52013 28,133 482 1.7 1,244 8 0.7 420,128 9,968 2.42014 28,616 483 1.7 1,250 6 0.5 429,344 9,216 2.22015 29,091 475 1.7 1,256 5 0.4 438,325 8,981 2.12016 29,565 474 1.6 1,262 6 0.5 447,680 9,355 2.12017 30,038 473 1.6 1,267 5 0.4 456,653 8,972 2.02018 30,505 467 1.6 1,274 7 0.5 466,211 9,558 2.12019 30,968 463 1.5 1,281 7 0.6 475,944 9,733 2.12020 31,425 457 1.5 1,291 10 0.8 486,725 10,782 2.32021 31,883 458 1.5 1,300 9 0.7 497,355 10,630 2.22022 32,335 452 1.4 1,309 9 0.7 507,782 10,427 2.12023 32,779 444 1.4 1,317 8 0.6 518,023 10,241 2.02024 33,215 436 1.3 1,327 10 0.8 528,995 10,972 2.12025 33,649 434 1.3 1,334 7 0.5 538,773 9,778 1.8


Residential Summary

Table 1-6

Note: Reclassifications in 2004 and 2005

37

Figure 1-8Annual Change in Residential Customers

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Nu

mb

er o

f C

ust

om

ers

38


39

Figure 1-9

Inter-County Energy Residential MWh Usage, History and Forecast

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

50,000.00

60,000.00

Jan-99

Jul-99

Jan-00

Jul-00

Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

MW

h

Other Usage Heating, Cooling and Water Heating Usage

40


Small Commercial Forecast

Small commercial sales are projected using two equations, a customer equation and a small commercial sales equation. Both are determined through regression analysis and utilize inputs relating to the economy, electric price, and the residential customer forecast. Small commercial projections are reported in Table 1-7.

41

Table 1-7


AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

AnnualAverage(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 411 37 15,2651991 428 17 4.1 39 2 4.1 16,546 1,281 8.41992 436 8 1.9 40 1 2.2 17,232 686 4.11993 450 14 3.2 45 5 13.4 20,168 2,936 17.01994 458 8 1.8 48 3 6.5 21,858 1,690 8.41995 463 5 1.1 49 1 2.3 22,601 743 3.41996 470 7 1.5 51 3 5.1 24,119 1,518 6.71997 471 1 0.2 58 6 12.3 27,140 3,021 12.51998 473 2 0.4 62 4 7.3 29,251 2,111 7.81999 475 2 0.4 68 6 9.7 32,222 2,972 10.22000 147 -328 -69.1 236 168 248.3 34,730 2,507 7.82001 137 -10 -6.8 289 53 22.3 39,597 4,867 14.02002 141 4 2.9 299 9 3.3 42,092 2,495 6.32003 146 5 3.5 305 6 2.1 44,491 2,398 5.72004 958 812 556.2 55 -250 -81.9 52,697 8,207 18.42005 2,853 1,895 197.8 26 -29 -52.3 74,901 22,204 42.12006 1,222 -1,631 -57.2 65 38 146.2 78,980 4,078 5.42007 1,230 8 0.7 70 5 7.9 85,757 6,778 8.62008 1,237 7 0.6 72 2 3.1 88,925 3,168 3.72009 1,244 7 0.6 73 2 2.1 91,343 2,418 2.72010 1,251 7 0.6 75 2 2.6 94,289 2,946 3.22011 1,257 6 0.5 78 2 3.2 97,809 3,520 3.72012 1,263 6 0.5 80 2 2.6 100,842 3,033 3.12013 1,269 6 0.5 82 2 2.4 103,727 2,884 2.92014 1,275 6 0.5 84 2 2.8 107,109 3,383 3.32015 1,281 6 0.5 86 2 2.8 110,664 3,554 3.32016 1,287 6 0.5 89 2 2.7 114,197 3,533 3.22017 1,294 7 0.5 91 2 2.5 117,722 3,525 3.12018 1,300 6 0.5 93 2 2.5 121,173 3,451 2.92019 1,307 7 0.5 95 2 2.3 124,640 3,468 2.92020 1,314 7 0.5 97 2 2.1 127,968 3,328 2.72021 1,320 6 0.5 99 2 2.0 131,180 3,212 2.52022 1,327 7 0.5 101 2 2.1 134,591 3,411 2.62023 1,334 7 0.5 104 2 2.1 138,148 3,558 2.62024 1,340 6 0.4 106 2 2.1 141,724 3,576 2.62025 1,347 7 0.5 108 2 2.0 145,368 3,644 2.6


Small Commercial Summary

42


Large Commercial Forecast

Large commercial customers are those with loads 1 MW or greater. Inter-County Energy currently has 1 customer in this class and is projected to increase to 5 customers by 2025. Large commercial results are reported in Table 1-8.

43

Table 1-8


AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

Annual Average(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 1 1,571 1,5711991 1 0 0.0 1,634 63 4.0 1,634 63 4.01992 1 0 0.0 1,685 51 3.1 1,685 51 3.11993 1 0 0.0 1,615 -70 -4.1 1,615 -70 -4.11994 1 0 0.0 1,739 124 7.7 1,739 124 7.71995 2 1 100.0 5,932 4,193 241.2 11,864 10,125 582.31996 2 0 0.0 8,088 2,156 36.3 16,176 4,312 36.31997 1 -1 -50.0 13,078 4,990 61.7 13,078 -3,098 -19.21998 1 0 0.0 13,025 -54 -0.4 13,025 -54 -0.41999 1 0 0.0 15,338 2,313 17.8 15,338 2,313 17.82000 1 0 0.0 16,857 1,519 9.9 16,857 1,519 9.92001 1 0 0.0 14,515 -2,343 -13.9 14,515 -2,343 -13.92002 1 0 0.0 15,544 1,030 7.1 15,544 1,030 7.12003 1 0 0.0 16,752 1,208 7.8 16,752 1,208 7.82004 1 0 0.0 17,322 570 3.4 17,322 570 3.42005 1 0 0.0 17,847 525 3.0 17,847 525 3.02006 1 0 0.0 19,695 1,848 10.4 19,695 1,848 10.42007 3 2 200.0 11,064 -8,631 -43.8 33,192 13,497 68.52008 3 0 0.0 11,219 155 1.4 33,657 466 1.42009 3 0 0.0 11,374 155 1.4 34,123 466 1.42010 3 0 0.0 11,530 155 1.4 34,589 466 1.42011 3 0 0.0 11,685 155 1.3 35,054 466 1.32012 3 0 0.0 11,840 155 1.3 35,520 466 1.32013 3 0 0.0 11,995 155 1.3 35,985 466 1.32014 3 0 0.0 12,150 155 1.3 36,451 466 1.32015 3 0 0.0 12,305 155 1.3 36,916 466 1.32016 4 1 33.3 11,412 -894 -7.3 45,646 8,730 23.62017 4 0 0.0 11,528 116 1.0 46,112 466 1.02018 4 0 0.0 11,644 116 1.0 46,577 466 1.02019 4 0 0.0 11,761 116 1.0 47,043 466 1.02020 4 0 0.0 11,877 116 1.0 47,508 466 1.02021 4 0 0.0 11,993 116 1.0 47,974 466 1.02022 4 0 0.0 12,110 116 1.0 48,440 466 1.02023 5 1 25.0 11,434 -676 -5.6 57,169 8,730 18.02024 5 0 0.0 11,527 93 0.8 57,635 466 0.82025 5 0 0.0 11,620 93 0.8 58,100 466 0.8


Large Commercial Summary

44


Peak Day Weather Scenarios

Extreme temperatures can dramatically influence Inter-County Energy’s peak demands. Table 1-9 and Figure 1-10 reports the impact of extreme weather on system demands.

45

Table 1-9

Winter Peak Day Minimum Temperatures Summer Peak Day Maximum Temperatures

Mild Normal Extreme Normal Extreme

Degrees 10 -3 -12 -17 -25 Degrees 94 98 100 104

Probability 99% 50% 20% 10% 3% Probability 50% 20% 10% 3%

Occurs Once Every 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years

Noncoincident Winter Peak Demand - MW Noncoincident Summer Peak Demand - MW

Season Mild Normal Extreme Year Normal Extreme

2006 93 107 114 128

2006 - 07 118 139 154 162 175 2007 98 112 119 134

2007 - 08 120 142 157 165 179 2008 100 115 122 137

2008 - 09 124 146 162 170 184 2009 103 118 125 140

2009 - 10 127 150 166 175 189 2010 105 120 128 144

2010 - 11 130 154 170 179 193 2011 108 123 131 147

2011 - 12 133 157 173 183 197 2012 110 126 134 150

2012 - 13 137 161 178 187 202 2013 113 129 137 154

2013 - 14 140 165 182 192 207 2014 115 132 140 157

2014 - 15 143 168 186 196 211 2015 118 135 143 161

2015- 16 147 173 191 201 217 2016 122 139 148 166

2016 - 17 151 177 196 206 222 2017 125 142 152 169

2017 - 18 154 181 200 210 227 2018 127 145 155 173

2018 - 19 157 185 204 215 232 2019 130 148 158 176

2019-2020 160 188 208 219 236 2020 132 151 161 180

2020-2021 164 193 213 224 241 2021 136 155 164 184

2021-2022 167 196 217 228 246 2022 138 158 168 187

2022-2023 172 202 223 234 253 2023 143 163 173 193

2023-2024 175 205 227 238 257 2024 146 166 176 196

2024-2025 179 210 231 243 262 2025 149 169 180 200

Inter-County EnergyPeak Day Weather Scenarios

46


47

Figure 1-10

Inter-County Energy - Normal Peaks And T&D Planning Peaks

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Pea

k M

W

Actual Winter Normal Winter 10% Case - Winter Actual Summer Normal Summer 10% Case - Summer

48

RUS Form 341

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