NATIONAL[JANUARY 2016; PART A]

METHODOLOGY

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 4,937 Canadians by Smart IVR on January 15th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.39%, 19 times out of

20. Party margins of error: Conservative: +/-2.32%; NDP: +/-3.87%; Greens: +/-6.21%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

MAKE CANADA GREAT AGAIN? OLEARY TIED WITH MACKAY

January 18, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds Kevin OLeary and Peter MacKay tied among Conservative Party voters in a hypothetical leadership race. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.39%, 19 times out of 20.

Justin Trudeau and the Liberals continue to enjoy a healthy lead with 44% versus the Conservatives under Rona Ambrose at 32% and the third place NDP under Thomas Mulcair at 16%, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. As we begin 2016, the government faces challenging economic factors and global uncertainty as they prepare for their rst budget. With a packed agenda, it will be interesting to see how Canadians react to the budget and other legislation, certainly for now, Justin Trudeau and this government continue to carry a great deal of goodwill with voters.

We asked NDP and Green voters about their current leaders and found most of them quite satised with both Thomas Mulcair and Elizabeth May. Among Green supporters, May's approval is over 84%, with 68% strongly approving and just 8% disapproving. Only 11% of Green supporters would support a leadership contest to replace Elizabeth May versus 77% who would not. Thomas Mulcair may be lagging in the polls among all voters, but among NDP supporters, his approval is over 72%, with 32% strongly approving. However when asked about a leadership race only 48% of NDP supporters are against one. Compared to Elizabeth Mays number of 77% against, it certainly does not mean that its an open-and-shut case.

Last but not least, we asked Conservative supporters their opinions on various potential leadership candidates. These results were most interesting and will continue to be as this race unfolds.

Not surprisingly, former PC Leader Peter MacKay leads the pack with the support of 25% among all Conservative voters. Somewhat surprisingly, none of the other early insider favourites is registering much support with Conservative voters, including Jason Kenney at just 8%, Lisa Raitt at 4.4%, Maxime Bernier with 4% (21% in Quebec), and Kellie Leitch at 3%.

Most surprisingly, TV personality and capitalist pundit Kevin O'Leary would get the support of over 23% of Conservative voters, just behind Peter MacKay, and leads MacKay in western Canada (BC, AB and Prairies).

Kevin O'Leary is an entertaining personality and shameless self-promoter. He has been called the Canadian Donald Trump and follows in the footsteps of Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sonny Bono, Ronald Reagan and other celebrities who have capitalized on name recognition to enter politics. Should he actually enter the Conservative leadership race there would be support - but whether he actually intends to run is another matter entirely. Certainly he has the potential to shake-up the race and despite being a newcomer to politics, would be one of the candidates to watch. About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.caFor more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

QUITO MAGGI: Kevin O'Leary is an entertaining personality and shameless self-promoter. He has been called the Canadian Donald Trump and follows in the footsteps of Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sonny Bono, Ronald Reagan and other celebrities who have capitalized on name recognition to enter politics.

Despite his name recognition due in large part to his bombastic style, his credentials as a serious political candidate cannot be taken seriously. His most recent publicity stunt revealed a fundamental lack of understanding of the Canadian economy and the entire resource sector on which many Provinces rely. His oer to invest $1 million in the oilsands if premier Notley resigns was disrespectful, negative, it was ignorant. Although those are sometimes confused as Conservative values, Conservatives and serious political candidates know that a $1 million investment in the oilsands is irrelevant, where projects scale is in the tens of billions of dollars.

Because of Mr. O'Leary's obvious lack of understanding of Alberta's economy. Because of his disrespectful and negative tone which Canadians have clearly rejected in our political discourse. On taking Kevin O'Leary seriously as a political candidate or contestant for the Conservative Leadership, I am out.

DAVID VALENTIN: Kevin OLeary sure seems like he could be a jerk - but hey that hasnt mattered in the Republican primary in the states!

I dont think you can chalk up OLearys support to pure name recognition - the favourability scores for the Conservative candidates shows that people have thought about who he is and with high recognition for Peter Mackay they are choosing one over the other.

OLeary may not be Canadas Donald Trump - but he may be able to accomplish something similar in large part because, like Trump, the media hang on to his every word. Would he best the best for the Conservative party? I dont know. But he could denitely win. It would be exciting. It would be entertaining. Im in.

A4

If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support?

CPC LED BY RONA AMBROSENDP LED BY TOM MULCAIRLIBERAL PARTY LED BY JUSTIN TRUDEAUBLOC QUEBECOIS LED BY RHEAL FORTIN GREEN PARTY LED BY ELIZABETH MAY UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3422%20%43%2%5%7%560

35-4931%13%34%3%6%13%1239

50-6431%11%41%2%4%12%1429

65+32%12%37%3%2%14%1709

Female27%14%40%3%4%13%

2659

Male30%14%39%2%5%10%2278

CPC LED BY RONA AMBROSENDP LED BY TOM MULCAIRLIBERAL PARTY LED BY JUSTIN TRUDEAUBLOC QUEBECOIS LED BY RHEAL FORTIN GREEN PARTY LED BY ELIZABETH MAY UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

BC24%14%33%

x16%14%846

AB49%8%27%

x2%13%960

Prairies37%12%38%

x3%10%681

ON29%13%45%

x2%11%1019

QC20%20%38%10%2%10%887

ATL29%12%44%

x4%11%544

29%

14%39%

2%

4%

11%

NDPConservative Liberal Green UndecidedBloc

A5

If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support? (Decided Only)

CPC LED BY RONA AMBROSENDP LED BY TOM MULCAIRLIBERAL PARTY LED BY JUSTIN TRUDEAUBLOC QUEBECOIS LED BY RHEAL FORTIN GREEN PARTY LED BY ELIZABETH MAY

18-3424%21%47%2%6%

35-4936%15%39%3%7%

50-6435%12%47%3%4%

65+37%14%43%3%3%

Female31%16%45%3%5%

Male34%16%43%3%5%

BC28%16%38%

x18%

AB57%10%31%

x3%

CPC LED BY RONA AMBROSENDP LED BY TOM MULCAIRLIBERAL PARTY LED BY JUSTIN TRUDEAUBLOC QUEBECOIS LED BY RHEAL FORTIN GREEN PARTY LED BY ELIZABETH MAY

Praires41%13%42%

x4%

ON32%15%51%

x3%

QC22%22%42%12%2%

ATL33%14%49%

x5%

33%

16%

44%

3%5%

NDPConservative Liberal Green UndecidedBloc

A6

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (Undecided Only)

CPC LED BY RONA AMBROSENDP LED BY TOM MULCAIRLIBERAL PARTY LED BY JUSTIN TRUDEAUBLOC QUEBECOIS LED BY RHEAL FORTIN GREEN PARTY LED BY ELIZABETH MAY UNDECIDED

18-342%15%23%0%0%

60%

35-4920%7%16%2%5%51%

50-645%11%23%3%5%

53%

65+22%8%19%0%7%

45%

Female12%9%25%1%5%

49%

Male14%10%15%2%4%56%

CPC LED BY RONA AMBROSENDP LED BY TOM MULCAIRLIBERAL PARTY LED BY JUSTIN TRUDEAUBLOC QUEBECOIS LED BY RHEAL FORTIN GREEN PARTY LED BY ELIZABETH MAY UNDECIDED

BC10%19%13%

x2%

57%

AB18%10%32%

x1%

39%

Prairies21%6%31%

x3%

39%

ON15%6%22%

x6%

50%

QC5%11%12%7%4%62%

ATL16%7%21%

x6%51%

13%

10%

20%

1%4%

52%

NDPConservative Liberal Green UndecidedBloc

A7

If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support? (Deciding and Leaning)

CPC LED BY RONA AMBROSENDP LED BY TOM MULCAIRLIBERAL PARTY LED BY JUSTIN TRUDEAUBLOC QUEBECOIS LED BY RHEAL FORTIN GREEN PARTY LED BY ELIZABETH MAY

18-3423%22%47%2%6%

35-4936%15%39%3%7%

50-6434%13%47%3%4%

65+37%14%42%3%3%

Female31%16%45%3%5%

Male34%16%42%3%5%

BC28%18%37%0%17%

AB54%10%33%0%3%

CPC LED BY RONA AMBROSENDP LED BY TOM MULCAIRLIBERAL PARTY LED BY JUSTIN TRUDEAUBLOC QUEBECOIS LED BY RHEAL FORTIN GREEN PARTY LED BY ELIZABETH MAY

Praires41%13%43%0%4%

ON32%15%50%0%3%

QC22%23%41%12%3%

ATL33%14%49%0%5%

32%

16%

44%

3%5%

NDPConservative Liberal GreenBloc

A8

Conservative and Conservative Leaning Only

A9

The Conservative Party will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following candidates, whom would you vote for if you could to be the next Conservative Leader?

PETER MACKAY JASON KENNEYKEVIN OLEARYKELLIE LEITCHMAXIME BERNIER LISA RAITTSOMEONE ELSE UNDECIDED

18-3423%3%19%5%4%2%2%

43%

35-4925%10%27%5%4%5%0%25%

50-6427%7%

24%3%4%4%5%

28%

65+25%11%22%1%4%7%4%25%

Female23%8%

24%3%3%4%2%

33%

Male27%8%

23%3%5%5%3%

26%

PETER MACKAY JASON KENNEYKEVIN OLEARYKELLIE LEITCHMAXIME BERNIER LISA RAITTSOMEONE ELSE UNDECIDED

BC22%11%28%1%1%5%3%

30%

AB18%13%35%4%1%2%5%

23%

Prairies22%10%33%1%0%4%3%

27%

ON25%8%22%3%1%6%3%

34%

QC33%1%9%6%22%4%2%

26%

ATL37%5%13%3%4%5%2%31%

25%

8%

23%3%

4%

4%

3%

29%

MacKay Kenney OLeary Leitch Bernier Raitt Someone Else Undecided

A10

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Peter MacKay?

FAVOURABLE UNFAVOURABLE NOT SURENOT FAMILIAR WITH PETER MACKAY

18-3448%17%18%17%

35-4951%15%25%9%

50-6454%12%26%8%

65+56%10%25%10%

Female48%12%29%11%

Male56%15%19%10%

FAVOURABLE UNFAVOURABLE NOT SURENOT FAMILIAR WITH PETER MACKAY

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar

BC40%17%25%18%

AB45%12%30%13%

Prairies52%10%26%13%

ON53%16%22%9%

QC66%10%20%4%

ATL61%15%19%6%

52%

14%

24%

10%

A11

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kellie Leitch?

FAVOURABLE UNFAVOURABLE NOT SURENOT FAMILIAR WITH KELLIE LEITCH

18-3412%7%

44%38%

35-4915%10%42%33%

50-647%9%

48%36%

65+12%11%45%33%

Female10%7%

45%38%

Male13%11%44%32%

FAVOURABLE UNFAVOURABLE NOT SURENOT FAMILIAR WITH KELLIE LEITCH

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar

BC7%15%44%34%

AB12%10%39%39%

Prairies12%7%

39%42%

ON11%8%

48%33%

QC14%9%

46%31%

ATL11%8%

47%34%

11%

9%

45%

35%

A12

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?

FAVOURABLE UNFAVOURABLE NOT SURENOT FAMILIAR WITH JASON KENNEY

18-3437%4%21%37%

35-4938%9%29%23%

50-6433%12%36%20%

65+43%9%29%19%

Female32%7%

34%27%

Male43%11%26%21%

FAVOURABLE UNFAVOURABLE NOT SURENOT FAMILIAR WITH JASON KENNEY

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar

BC32%12%28%28%

AB43%8%

29%21%

Prairies41%8%

25%27%

ON36%9%32%24%

QC39%9%27%25%

ATL36%9%32%23%

38%

9%

30%

24%

A13

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kevin OLeary?

FAVOURABLE UNFAVOURABLE NOT SURENOT FAMILIAR WITH KEVIN OLEARY

18-3452%15%9%23%

35-4963%12%17%9%

50-6446%17%28%9%

65+42%18%23%17%

Female50%13%23%14%

Male52%17%17%14%

FAVOURABLE UNFAVOURABLE NOT SURENOT FAMILIAR WITH KEVIN OLEARY

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar

BC47%18%20%14%

AB56%13%20%11%

Prairies52%17%16%15%

ON58%15%20%8%

QC45%18%17%20%

ATL47%16%21%16%

51%

15%

20%

14%

A14

NDP and NDP leaning Only

A15

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Thomas Mulcair is handling his job as NDP Leader?

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-3431%38%8%6%17%

35-4926%43%16%3%13%

50-6443%37%6%4%10%

65+28%50%8%4%11%

Female29%42%9%3%17%

Male34%40%10%5%11%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

Approve Disapprove Not Sure

BC15%57%10%5%13%

AB36%36%1%

10%18%

Prairies33%36%2%6%

24%

ON38%41%6%0%14%

QC33%37%14%5%11%

ATL21%31%18%15%15%

73%

14%

14%

A16

Do you think the NDP should hold a leadership race to replace Thomas Mulcair, or not?

YESNONOT SURE

18-3412%35%53%

35-4915%53%31%

50-6414%63%23%

65+21%52%27%

Female13%43%44%

Male16%53%31%

YESNONOT SURE

Yes No Not Sure

BC26%45%30%

AB20%61%19%

Prairies16%49%35%

ON6%

47%47%

QC16%51%33%

ATL27%29%45%

15%

48%

37%

A17

Green Party and Green Party leaning Only

A18

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Elizabeth May is handling her job as Green Party leader?

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-3473%6%3%8%11%

35-4962%19%3%7%9%

50-6486%5%2%3%4%

65+44%50%2%2%1%

Female66%17%3%9%5%

Male71%15%2%2%10%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

Approve Disapprove Not Sure

BC59%13%5%9%14%

AB58%16%6%3%16%

Prairies75%18%1%2%5%

ON78%22%1%2%0%

QC77%14%1%9%1%

ATL83%12%2%3%1%

84%

8%

8%

A19

Do you think the Green Party should hold a leadership race to replace Elizabeth May or not?

YESNONOT SURE

18-3413%75%11%

35-497%

82%5%

50-6410%76%17%

65+10%69%21%

Female14%77%13%

Male11%77%11%

YESNONOT SURE

Yes No Not Sure

BC18%74%9%

AB15%79%6%

Prairies5%

86%9%

ON18%87%14%

QC5%

56%25%

ATL13%89%7%

12%

77%

12%

If a Federal election were held today, which party would you support?

Conservative Party led by Rona AmbroseNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Qubcois led by Rheal FortinGreen Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards voting for?

Conservative Party led by Rona AmbroseNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Qubcois led by Rheal FortinGreen Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

The Conservative Party will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following candidates, whom would you vote for if you could to be the next Conservative Leader?

Peter MacKayJason KenneyKevin OLearyKellie Leitch

Maxime BernierLisa Raitt

Someone elseUndecided

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Peter MacKay?

FavourableUnfavourable

Not sureNot familiar with Peter MacKay

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kellie Leitch?

FavourableUnfavourable

Not sureNot familiar with Kellie Leitch

A20

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?

FavourableUnfavourable

Not sureNot familiar with Jason Kenney

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kevin OLeary?

FavourableUnfavourable

Not sureNot familiar with Kevin Oleary

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Thomas Mulcair is handling his job as NDP Leader?

Strongly approveSomewhat approve

Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove

Not sure

Do you think the NDP should hold a leadership race to replace Thomas Mulcair, or not?

YesNo

Not Sure

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Elizabeth May is handling her job as Green Party leader?

Strongly approveSomewhat approve

Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove

Not sure

Do you think the Green Party should hold a leadership race to replace Elizabeth May or not?

YesNo

Not Sure

A21

ONLY WE CALLED

THE LIBERAL

MAJORITY.

Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week before we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in deance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a

political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITEmainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER @MainStResearch

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2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.