Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016

8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016

1/23

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,537 Ontarians by Smart IVR™ from May 18, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell pho

were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on2011 Canadian Census.

EMBARGOED UNTIL: TBDPRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK

ONTARIO MAY 2016


2/23

63% SAY DONATIONS INFLUENCED GOVERNMENT POLICY

May 28, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Ontarians support proposed refoo Ontario’s campaign financing laws - with 63% saying they believe donations have influenced provin

government policy. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 2

We’ve seen the provincial government in the headlines for all the wrong reasons lately,” said Quito Mapresident of Mainstreet Research. “The Wynne government reacted swiftly once it became apparent their fundraising practices had the potential to dominate the news cycle. Other premiers however facimilar criticism decided to do nothing at all; in British Columbia, Christy Clark stared down critics

defeated an initiative to bring in contribution limits. In Saskatchewan, Brad Wall batted away any talcampaign financing reform.”

The new reforms will make it tougher for third parties to advertise as they now face strict limits on whey can spend before and during election campaigns - these are moves Ontarians support. 68% supp

banning campaign contributions from unions and corporations (as well as establishing an individcontribution limit) and 61% approve of the limitations on third party spending before and during electi

The Liberals’ per-vote subsidy has only 43% support among Ontarians with 42% opposed, a statisticaThe per-vote subsidy has the lowest support of the campaign financing reform plan.

Overall, 69% support the campaign reform plan. 63% of Ontarians also believe campaign contributhave influenced government policy - a claim the provincial government denies.

Provincially we are seeing a closer race between the PCs and Liberals, with the NDP falling to 16%. egional numbers tell a different story however. The Liberals only lead in the City of Toronto and EastOntario. In Southwest, South Central and Northern Ontario the PCs lead by 9%, they also lead by 5% ineat-rich GTA. With redistribution underway, this would set up some very tight races in Bramp

Mississauga and Durham region,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three level

government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of pu

opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BrColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the opolling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected]

For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.


3/23

If a Provincial Election were held today, whichparty would you support?

ONDPOLP PCs Green Undecided

0

5

0

5

20

25

30

35

April 9 April 28 Sept 21 Nov 1 Feb 16 May 19


4/23

If a Provincial Election were held today, whichparty would you support?

Liberal

PC

NDP

Green

Undecided

Sample

18-34

31%

29%

15%

5%

19%

301

35-49

28%

31%

15%

5%

21%

601

50-64

28%

33%

18%

4%

16%

834

65+

26%

38%

15%

3%

18%

801

Male

30%

38%

16%

5%

11%

1,201

Fema

28%

27%

16%

4%

26%

1,336

Liberal

PC

NDP

Green

Undecided

Sample

SW

22%

31%

18%

7%

22%

432

SC

24%

33%

24%

2%

17%

423

416

35%

30%

14%

6%

15%

451

905

30%

35%

10%

3%

22%

460

North

18%

34%

25%

3%

20%

350

East

34%

30%

16%

4%

15%

421

ON

29%

32%

16%

4%

19%

2,537


5/23

DECIDED & LEANING

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

April 9 April 28 Sept 21 Nov 1 Feb 16 May 19

ONDPOLP PCs Green


6/23

DECIDED & LEANING

Liberal

PC

NDP

Green

Sample

18-34

40%

36%

19%

5%

250

35-49

36%

37%

21%

6%

485

50-64

33%

38%

23%

5%

690

65+

33%

45%

18%

4%

642

Male

34%

42%

19%

5%

1,044

Fema

37%

35%

22%

5%

1,023

Liberal

PC

NDP

Green

Sample

SW

31%

39%

22%

8%

360

SC

28%

37%

31%

5%

340

416

41%

33%

19%

7%

386

905

38%

44%

15%

3%

365

North

23%

42%

32%

3%

280

East

39%

36%

20%

4%

336

ON

36%

38%

20%

5%

2,067


7/23

UNDECIDED VOTERS ONLY (LEANINGS)

23%

20%

17%

3%

37%

ONDPOLP PCs Green Undecided


8/23


9/23

Support for Campaign Election Reforms

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34

32%

37%

11%

10%

9%

35-49

29%

38%

12%

10%

10%

50-64

29%

39%

9%

13%

10%

65+

35%

37%

11%

11%

6%

Male

30%

38%

11%

13%

9%

Fema

32%

38%

11%

9%

9%

Strong A

Some A

Some D

Strong D

Not Sure

SW

30%

34%

13%

13%

10%

SC

31%

41%

9%

12%

7%

416

34%

39%

11%

8%

8%

905

30%

38%

11%

11%

10%

North

33%

38%

8%

13%

8%

East

29%

40%

12%

11%

9%

ON

31%

38%

11%

11%

9%


10/23

Approval for Per-Vote Subsidy

10%

33%

31%

13%

13%

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove Not Sure


11/23


12/23

Approval for Banning Corporate/Union Donatioand Lowering Individual Contribution Limits

37%

31%

7%

9%

16%

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove Not Sure


13/23

Approval for Banning Corporate/Union Donatioand Lowering Individual Contribution Limits

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34

37%

30%

7%

8%

17%

35-49

36%

31%

7%

11%

15%

50-64

35%

31%

8%

10%

16%

65+

42%

31%

6%

6%

15%

Male

33%

33%

9%

10%

15%

Fema

41%

29%

5%

8%

17%

Strong A

Some A

Some D

Strong D

Not Sure

SW

40%

31%

6%

7%

15%

SC

20%

39%

9%

5%

26%

416

39%

28%

8%

8%

17%

905

39%

31%

7%

12%

11%

North

36%

32%

8%

8%

17%

East

38%

29%

6%

9%

18%

ON

37%

31%

7%

9%

16%


14/23


15/23

Approval for Limitations on Third Party Spendin

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34

29%

35%

16%

6%

14%

35-49

27%

34%

16%

6%

17%

50-64

28%

36%

15%

6%

15%

65+

29%

24%

23%

7%

17%

Male

26%

36%

19%

5%

14%

Fema

30%

30%

15%

7%

18%

Strong A

Some A

Some D

Strong D

Not Sure

SW

33%

27%

20%

7%

13%

SC

15%

32%

18%

5%

31%

416

29%

32%

18%

7%

15%

905

27%

39%

16%

5%

13%

North

38%

29%

9%

6%

17%

East

26%

33%

18%

6%

18%

ON

28%

33%

17%

6%

16%


16/23

63%

21%

16%

Yes No Not Sure



17/23

Yes

No

Not Sure

SW

66%

17%

16%

SC

61%

19%

19%

416

58%

27%

15%

905

62%

21%

17%

North

77%

13%

10%

East

65%

20%

15%

ON

63%

21%

16%


ON

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10

63% 21% 16%

63% 19% 18%

63% 23% 14%

60% 22% 18%

64% 20% 16%

62% 23% 15%

67% 18% 15%


18/23

SCRIPT

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support?

The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen WynneThe Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown

The NDP led by Andrea HorwathThe Green Party led by Mike Schreiner

Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards voting for?

The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen WynneThe Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown

The NDP led by Andrea Horwath

The Green Party led by Mike SchreinerUndecided

Recently the provincial government announced changes to election campaign financing laws. The n

rules would lower the donation limits for individuals and ban donations from unions and corporatioAt the same time, a per-vote subsidy would be introduced of $2.26 per vote that would decline ovetime and third party groups would face limits on what they could spend before and during electiocampaigns. Do you approve or disapprove of these changes to election campaign financing rules?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly DisapproveNot Sure

Part of the province’s plan is to introduce a per-vote subsidy of $2.26 to political parties which woueventually be lowered to $1.70 per vote. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed per-vote

subsidy?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly DisapproveNot Sure

Part of the province’s plan is to ban corporate and union donations. At the same time, the donation li

for individuals would be lowered to $7,750. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed ban oncorporate and union donations and a lower donation limit for individuals?

Strongly Approve

Somewhat ApproveSomewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove

Not Sure


19/23

Part of the province’s plan is to limit the amount of money third party groups can spend before anduring elections. Under the new plan third parties will be allowed to spend $100,000 during an elect

and $600,000 before a scheduled election campaign. Do you approve or disapprove of theselimitations on third party groups?

Strongly Approve

Somewhat ApproveSomewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove

Not Sure

Many of the changes the province has brought forward to election laws came after criticism of largcorporate and union donations to the provincial Liberal party. The government has claimed donatio

had no impact on government policy. Do you think donations had an impact on provincial policy or n

YesNo

Not Sure

SCRIPT


20/23

GTAAjax

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillBrampton Centre

Brampton EastBrampton NorthBrampton SouthBrampton West

DurhamKing—Vaughan

Markham—Stouffville

Markham—ThornhillMarkham—UnionvilleMississauga Centre

Mississauga East—Cooksville

Mississauga—Erin MillsMississauga—Lakeshore

Mississauga—MaltonMississauga—Streetsville

OshawaPickering—Uxbridge

Richmond Hill

Thornhill

Vaughan—WoodbridgeWhitby

Barrie—Innisfil

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteDufferin—Caledon

Newmarket—AuroraSimcoe North

York—Simcoe

EASTBay of Quinte

CarletonGlengarry—Prescott—Russell

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockHastings—Lennox and Addington

Kanata—CarletonKingston and the Islands

Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonLeeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lak

Nepean

Northumberland—Peterborough SouthOrléansOttawa CentreOttawa South

Ottawa West—NepeanOttawa—Vanier

Peterborough—KawarthaRenfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

NORTH

Algoma—Manitoulin—KapuskasingHuron—Bruce

KenoraNickel Belt

Nipissing—TimiskamingParry Sound—Muskoka

Sault Ste. Marie

SudburyThunder Bay—Rainy River

Thunder Bay—Superior NorthTimmins—James Bay

SOUTH-CENTRAL

Brantford—BrantBurlington

Flamborough—GlanbrookHaldimand—Norfolk

Hamilton Centre

Hamilton East—Stoney CreekHamilton Mountain

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

MiltonNiagara CentreNiagara Falls

Niagara WestOakvilleOakville North—Burlington

Simcoe—Grey

St. Catharines

RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN


21/23

SOUTH-WESTBruce—Grey—Owen Sound

CambridgeChatham-Kent—Leamington

Elgin—Middlesex—LondonEssex

GuelphKitchener Centre

Kitchener South—HespelerKitchener—Conestoga

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

London North CentreLondon WestLondon—Fanshawe

Oxford

Perth—WellingtonSarnia—Lambton

WaterlooWellington—Halton Hills

Windsor WestWindsor—Tecumseh

TORONTO (416)Beaches—East York

DavenportDon Valley East

Don Valley NorthDon Valley West

Eglinton—LawrenceEtobicoke Centre

Etobicoke NorthEtobicoke—Lakeshore

Humber River—Black Creek

Parkdale—High ParkScarborough CentreScarborough North

Scarborough Southwest

Scarborough—AgincourtScarborough—GuildwoodScarborough—Rouge Park

Spadina—Fort York

Toronto CentreToronto—DanforthToronto—St. Paul's

University—Rosedale

WillowdaleYork Centre

York South—Weston

RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN


22/23

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the

Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewan’s

general election, top results within MoE.

MANITOBA

Most Active Pollster of Manitoba’s gener

election, top results within MoE.

CALGARY GREENWAY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary

Greenway by election.


23/23

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber

government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major

government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

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Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016

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