MORTGAGE MONITOR - Black Knight, Inc. · 2020-01-23 · Black Knight’s ‘First Look’ at...

DECEMBER 2018 REPORT

MORTGAGE MONITOR

https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&report-year=2018

https://www.blackknightinc.com/

Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2019 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 2Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2019 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Each month, the Black Knight Mortgage Monitor looks at a variety of issues related to the mortgage finance and housing industries.

This month, as always, we begin with a review of some of the high-level mortgage performance statistics reported in our most recent First Look report, with an update on delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends.

With full-year mortgage performance data now in, we then delve into some year-end metrics, finding that most key indicators have returned to their long-term, pre-recession averages.

Next, as recent interest rate declines have resulted in a more than 50% increase in refinance incentive in the market over just the past two months, we take a closer look at which segments of the market are the most heavily impacted by this change.

As the housing market continues to react to a rising interest rate environment, we then dive in to the most recent numbers from the Black Knight Home Price Index (HPI) to see how that is impacting home affordability.

In producing the Mortgage Monitor, Black Knight’s Data & Analytics division aggregates, analyzes and reports upon the most recently available mortgage performance data from the company’s McDash loan-level database. For more information on McDash or Black Knight in general, please call 844-474-2537 or email [email protected].

DECEMBER 2018 OVERVIEW

MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER FIRST LOOK RELEASE

2018 YEAR-END PERFORMANCE METRICS

REFINANCE INCENTIVE UPDATE

HOME PRICES & AFFORDABILITY UPDATE

APPENDIX

DISCLOSURES

3

4

12

15

18

21

CONTENTS




https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-first-look-at-december-2018-mortgage-data/

http://www.bkfs.com/Data-and-Analytics/DivisionInformation/Solutions/Mortgage-Performance-Data-and-Analytics/Pages/McDash-Loan-Data.aspx

mailto:mortgage.monitor%40bkfs.com?subject=

https://twitter.com/black_knightinc?lang=en

https://www.linkedin.com/company/blackknight/



MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 3

Here we have an overview of findings from Black Knight’s ‘First Look’ at December mortgage performance data. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

DECEMBER 2018 FIRST LOOK RELEASE

Despite rising seasonally in recent months, mortgage delinquencies saw the lowest year-end total since Black Knight began reporting the figure in 2000

DECEMBER OVERVIEW STATS

CHANGE IN DELINQUENCY RATE

2018 saw the lowest year-end delinquency rate this century

3.9% of active mortgages were delinquent in December

4.7%

TOTAL FORECLOSURE STARTS

Starts edged slightly upward, with 46.3K starts reported for the month

A 4% annual rise is the result of suppressed start volumes in

2017 due to hurricane moratoria

FORECLOSURE RATE

Though up seasonally, the foreclosure rate posted the lowest year-end total

since 2005

Just 271K loans remain in active foreclosure

2.4% 1.2%



https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-first-look-at-december-2018-mortgage-data/


https://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/BKI_MM_Dec2018_Chart01.pdf




MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 4

With full year data available for 2018, here we take a look at some key mortgage performance metrics. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

DECEMBER 2018 YEAR-END PERFORMANCE METRICS

© 2018 - Black Knight Inc.: Unauthorized use is strictly prohibited. Based on data believed to be reliable, not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Page 1 of 1

3.88%

4.93%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGES(YEAR-END METRICS)

Delinquency Rate 2000-2005 Average

-13%-9%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE IN DELINQUENCY RATE(6-MONTH AVERAGE TO END EACH YEAR)

Non-Hurricane Adjusted Hurricane Adjusted

» While we’ve documented the potential impact of rising interest rates, and talk of a looming recession persists in the market, mortgage performance continues to strengthen

» The national delinquency rate is down 18% from last year, though that figure is overstated due to hurricane-related effects over the past 18 months

» Still, even excluding hurricane-impacted areas, December's delinquency rate was down an impressive 11% from last year

» Over the past six months, the national delinquency rate has been down an average of 13% from the prior year, and down 9% even when excluding hurricane-affected areas

» Steady declines in delinquencies as 2018 came to a close suggest the national delinquency rate could continue to press lower in early 2019

» In fact, continued improvement could result in performance metrics hitting new post-recession lows as performance metrics see typical seasonal improvements come spring

DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGES(YEAR-END METRICS)

YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE IN DELINQUENCY RATE(6-MONTH AVERAGE TO END EACH YEAR)







MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 5



0.99%1.07%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

90+ DAY DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGES(YEAR-END METRICS)

90+ Day Delinquency Rate 2000-2005 Average

-16%-14%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE IN 90+ DELINQUENCY RATE(6-MONTH AVERAGE TO END EACH YEAR)

Non-Hurricane Adjusted Hurricane Adjusted

» Overall, 2018 marked the lowest year-end serious delinquency rate since 2004

» When accounting for hurricane-related impacts among the seriously delinquent population (90 or more days past due), we see improvement remains strong among this cohort as well

» The 90+ day delinquency rate is down 14% year-over-year in non-hurricane-affected areas; just slightly below the -16% average overall

» While this has slowed slightly from declines in recent years, a strong rate of reduction remains among serious delinquencies

90+ DAY DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGES(YEAR-END METRICS)

YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE IN 90+ DELINQUENCY RATE(6-MONTH AVERAGE TO END EACH YEAR)






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 6


-11%

-17%-12%

-24%

-16%

-10%

-21 %

-51 %

-73%

-19%

-22%

-17%

-12%

-17%

-11%

-19%

-23%

-13%

-16%

-20%-14%

-30%

-23%

-18%-13%

-12%

-18%

-15%

-20%

-22%

+1%

+9%

-9%

+2%

-4%

-9%

-9%

-6%-6%

-9%-6%

-2%

0%

1-YEAR CHANGE IN SERIOUS DELINQUENCY RATE

3.06%

0.98%

1.37%1.91 %

1.84%0.57%

0.48%

0.37%

1.20%

0.62%

1.11%

0.84%

0.41%

1.38%

1.05%1.06%

2.08%

1.37%

0.89%

0.48%

0.96%

0.52%

1.42%

0.44%

0.88%

0.75%

1.18%

0.80%

0.79%

1.17%

1.17%

1.21 %

0.41%

1.31 %

1.34%

0.54%

1.40%

1.19%

0.56%

0.89%

0.50%

0.90%

0.70%

SERIOUS DELINQUENCY RATE BY STATE – DEC 2018

» At the state level, we see clear geographic separation in serious delinquency rates, with the southeastern and northeastern U.S. seeing the highest rates, with the greatest improvement and lowest serious delinquency rates across the western and southwestern states

» Overall, areas most heavily impacted by 2017's hurricane season experienced the largest declines

» Florida’s serious delinquency rate fell 73% year-over-year, while Texas’ was cut by more than half during the 2018 calendar year

» Only three states (North Dakota, Iowa and North Carolina) saw an increase in serious delinquencies; North Carolinas, 9% increase was largely the result of Hurricane Florence

» Colorado's 0.37% serious delinquency rate is the lowest of any state, and more than 60% below the national average

» At 3.06%, Mississippi has the nation's highest serious delinquency rate, more than 3X the national average and 50% higher than any other state

1-YEAR CHANGE IN SERIOUS DELINQUENCY RATE SERIOUS DELINQUENCY RATE BY STATE – DEC 2018






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 7

» While foreclosure starts rose slightly from Q3 to Q4, they remained relatively flat year-over-year as a result of moratoria in hurricane-impacted areas; elsewhere, starts were actually down 7% from Q4 2017

» First-time foreclosure starts also dropped 18% from last year, setting a new low since Black Knight began reporting the data in 2000

» Even repeat foreclosures – though making up more than 60% of all starts, the highest share ever recorded – were down 6% from the end of 20170%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

2000

Q1

2000

Q4

2001

Q3

2002

Q2

2003

Q1

2003

Q4

2004

Q3

2005

Q2

2006

Q1

2006

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2009

Q4

2010

Q3

2011

Q2

2012

Q1

2012

Q4

2013

Q3

2014

Q2

2015

Q1

2015

Q4

2016

Q3

2017

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

FORECLOSURE STARTSFirst Time Foreclosure Starts Repeat Foreclosures % Repeat Foreclosures

FORECLOSURE STARTS576K foreclosures were initiated in the 2018 calendar year, down 11% year-over year, and the lowest annual total in more than 18 years






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 8

» Just 1.12% of active loans were referred to foreclosure in 2018, besting 2017’s previous low by -12%

» That said, foreclosure start rates varied noticeably across the country from 0.38% in Colorado to 2.36% in Mississippi

» In fact, Colorado’s was the lowest annual foreclosure start rate of any state since Black Knight began reporting the data in 2000

» The only states where foreclosure start rates increased in 2018 were Texas, Florida and Hawaii

» Texas and Florida increased foreclosure rates were due to an artificially low starting point from hurricane-related foreclosure moratoriums in 2017

» While foreclosure rates are higher than they were a year ago (due to moratoriums in late 2017) they’re lower than they were immediately prior to the hurricanes hitting those two states

2.36%

1.21 %1.81%

1.58%1.30%

1.62%

1.40%0.67%

0.56%

0.38%

1.65%

0.93%

1.53%

1.27%

1.10%

0.50%

1.24%

2.05%

1 .63%

0.92%

0.60%

1.12%

0.64%

0.97%

0.63%

0.81 %

0.89%

1.77%

1.27%

0.74%

1.75%

1.39%

1.62%

0.49%

1.61 %

1.30%

0.74%

1.13%

1 .1 1 %

0.60%

0.92%

0.54%

1.06%

1 .29%

ANNUAL FORECLOSURE START RATE BY STATE

2018 foreclosure starts as a share of the average outstanding mortgages volume in each state

Nationally, 2018 saw the lowest foreclosure start rate in more than 18 years


ANNUAL FORECLOSURE START RATE BY STATE





MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 9



0.52%0.62%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

5%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

FORECLOSURE RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGES(YEAR-END METRICS)

Foreclosure Rate 2000-2005 Average

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ACTIVE FORECLOSURE INVENTORY(YEAR-END VOLUMES)

Active Foreclosure Inventory At Current Rate of Reduction 2000-2005 Average Record Low (June 2000)

Example Scenario based on current rate of

reduction

» Both the national foreclosure rate and the number of loans in active foreclosure have now fallen below long-term norms

» In fact, the national foreclosure rate closed out 2018 below its pre-crisis average for the first time since 2005

» While the rate of improvement has slowed slightly in recent months, at the current rate of decline, both metrics would be near record lows by the end of 2019

» Just one state - North Dakota - saw its foreclosure rate increase in 2018; all other states saw improvement

» Nationally, the foreclosure rate declined by 19% through 2018, but some areas saw even greater declines

» New Jersey, Oregon, Nevada, Washington D.C, and Utah all saw greater than 30% reductions in their respective foreclosure rates

FORECLOSURE RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGES(YEAR-END METRICS)

ACTIVE FORECLOSURE INVENTORY(YEAR-END VOLUMES)






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 10


234K

67K

15K4K 2K 1K

117K

70K

24K11K 7K

42K

< 1 Year 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5+ Years

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY – BY YEARS DELINQUENTHistorical Average* Current Distribution

*2000-2005 average applied to total outstanding mortgage universe as of December 2018

Florida20%

8,500

All Other39%

16,500New York

41%17,000

BREAKDOWN OF AGED (>5 YEAR DQ) FORECLOSURES

» Low foreclosure start rates in recent years have led to a historically low number of early-stage foreclosures

» Just 117K active foreclosures involve a borrower who is less than 12 months delinquent on their mortgage

» That's the lowest share of early-stage foreclosures since the turn of the century and roughly half the 2000-2005 average

» A large number of aged foreclosures remain as fallout from the financial crisis

» Over 60K foreclosure cases exist in which the borrower hasn’t made a payment in 2+ years; some 40K of these haven't made a payment in 5 years or more

» Total active foreclosures are down 18% from last year, but those 5+ years old are down 35%

» New York alone is home to over 40% (17K) of aged foreclosure cases

» Florida comes in second with 20% of such cases (8.5K as of December)

» Combined, those two states hold 60% of aged foreclosure inventory; The next highest state is NJ with less than 5%

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY – BY YEARS DELINQUENT BREAKDOWN OF AGED (>5 YEAR DQ) FORECLOSURES






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 11

Source: Realtor.com residential listings database

» While the number of loans in active foreclosure just recently fell below its pre-recession average, foreclosure sales have been there since 2016

» Foreclosure sale rates, while up from recent years, remain nearly 50% below pre-recession averages, resulting in a smaller share of active foreclosures making their way to completion than prior to the financial crisis

» It may be that the increased focus on loss mitigation efforts, as well as greater scrutiny around foreclosure processes, in the post-crisis period are helping to drive these lower foreclosure sale rates

» 2004-2009 vintage mortgages continue to see the highest foreclosure sale volumes, accounting for nearly 60% of sales last year

» From a geographic perspective, Florida, New Jersey and New York continue to see the highest volumes, accounting for 22% of all sales last year

0

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

0.07%

0.08%

0.09%

0.1%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FORECLOSURE SALE ACTIVITYForeclosure Sales as % of Active Foreclosure Inventory

FORECLOSURE SALE ACTIVITY2018’s 175K foreclosure sales were not only down 25% from the year prior, but were also 40% below their 2000-2005 average






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 12

Recent interest rate declines have resulted in a more than 50% increase in refinance incentive in the market over just the past two months. Here we take a closer look at which segments of the market are the most heavily impacted by this change. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

DECEMBER 2018 REFINANCE INCENTIVE UPDATE

» 30-year mortgage rates fell below 4.5% in January for the first time since April 2018

» The decline in rates has returned interest rate incentive to refinance to 1M homeowners, a 50% increase over just the last two months

» This is the largest this population has been since January 2018

» Even if rates should hold steady – and certainly if they fall further – this could lead to an unexpected bump in refinance volumes in early 2019

» That said, there are still 1.8M fewer refi candidates than at the start of 2018, a 40% decline

2,86

7,00

0

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

M

1M

2M

3M

4M

5M

6M

7M

8M

9M

10M

2001

-06

2001

-12

2002

-06

2002

-12

2003

-06

2003

-12

2004

-06

2004

-12

2005

-06

2005

-12

2006

-06

2006

-12

2007

-06

2007

-12

2008

-06

2008

-12

2009

-06

2009

-12

2010

-06

2010

-12

2011

-06

2011

-12

2012

-06

2012

-12

2013

-06

2013

-12

2014

-06

2014

-12

2015

-06

2015

-12

2016

-06

2016

-12

2017

-06

2017

-12

2018

-06

2018

-12

REFINANCE CANDIDATES IN MILLIONSRefinance Candidates (left axis) Freddie 30-Year Fixed Rate (right axis)

Refinance Candidates: Homeowners current on their mortgage with 720+ credit scores and >= 20% equity in their home that could reduce their interest rate by 0.75% or more by refinancing into a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate

REFINANCE CANDIDATES IN MILLIONSThere are now 2.9M homeowners with mortgages who could likely qualify under broad-based criteria and also reduce their interest rate by at least 0.75% by refinancing






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 13

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

<2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Origination Year

SHARE OF 30-YR MORTGAGES MEETING REFINANCEABLE CRITERIANovember 2018 Increase Since November


» 40% of homeowners who’ve regained refinance incentive (424K) took out their current home loan in 2009 – 2011

» 75% of incentive gains came to loans originated pre-2011

» A large portion of these homeowners have already had, but not acted upon, interest rate incentive to refinance in recent years, when rates were even lower

» This suggests the impact of incentive gains may be more limited than the numbers suggest

» HELOC rates are rising, so homeowners wanting to tap equity, but who haven’t due to the rising cost of doing so, may lead to increased cash-out refi volumes in early 2019 as well

SHARE OF 30-YR MORTGAGES MEETING REFINANCEABLE CRITERIAThe vast majority of refi incentive (>90%) is held on loans originated prior to 2011






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 14

10.0%

5.0%2.7% 1.8%

4.3%

2.1%

2.8%

1.8%1.4%

2.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Private Securities GSE FHA/VA Portfolio Held Total MarketInvestor Category

SHARE OF 30-YR MORTGAGES MEETING REFINANCEABLE CRITERIANovember 2018 Increase Since November


» Loans held in private labeled securities (PLS) still have the most refi incentive, with 12.1% of borrowers having the ability and incentive to do so

» GSE loans come in a distant second, with 7.8% of 30-year mortgage holders having rate incentive to refinance, a 55% increase from two months ago

» The lowest refinance potential/prepayment risk is among portfolio loans; just 3.2% of 30-year mortgages have rate/term refi incentive

» The 1.4 percentage point increase among portfolio-held loans represents a 81% rise in population, the largest percent increase in incentive among any investor group

» Portfolio-held loans – especially those originated in recent years – tend to have higher credit scores and higher balance, meaning borrowers may be more apt to act on newfound incentives to refi

SHARE OF 30-YR MORTGAGES MEETING REFINANCEABLE CRITERIAJust 4.5% of FHA/VA borrowers have refi incentive; though less than that of GSE loans, the 1.8% percentage point rise represents a 67% increase from two months ago






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 15

As the housing market continues to react to a rising interest rate environment, we dive in to the most recent numbers from the Black Knight Home Price Index (HPI) to see how that is impacting home affordability. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s HPI. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

DECEMBER 2018 HOME PRICE & AFFORDABILITY UPDATE

-0.25%

0.25%

0.75%

1.25%

1.75%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

Nov Ja

n

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

Nov Ja

n

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

Nov Ja

n

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

Nov Ja

n

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

Nov Ja

n

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

BLACK KNIGHT HOME PRICE INDEX1-Month Change (right axis) Annual Rate of Home Price Appreciation (left axis)

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2012-0

9

2012-1

1

2013-0

1

2013-0

3

2013-0

5

2013-0

7

2013-0

9

2013-1

1

2014-0

1

2014-0

3

2014-0

5

2014-0

7

2014-0

9

2014-1

1

2015-0

1

2015-0

3

2015-0

5

2015-0

7

2015-0

9

2015-1

1

2016-0

1

2016-0

3

2016-0

5

2016-0

7

2016-0

9

2016-1

1

2017-0

1

2017-0

3

2017-0

5

2017-0

7

2017-0

9

2017-1

1

2018-0

1

2018-0

3

2018-0

5

2018-0

7

2018-0

9

2018-1

1

Fred

die

30-Y

ear F

ixed

Inte

rest

Rat

e

Annu

al R

ate

of H

ome

Pric

e Ap

prec

iatio

n

HOME PRICE APPRECIATION VS 30-YR FIXED INTEREST RATEAnnual Rate of Home Price Appreciation (left axis) 30-Year Fixed Rate

» The average home declined in value by 0.2% (-$580) in November, marking both the first 3-month consecutive decline and the largest single month decline in home prices since the housing recovery began in early 2012

» The average home is now down an aggregate of $1,361 (-0.5%) in value from August 2018

» The annual rate of appreciation slowed further in November as well, falling to 4.9%

» That's down 0.4% from October (the largest single month deceleration in over 4 years), and down 1.8% from the February 2019 peak of 6.7%

» In digesting these numbers, one should remember that November saw the average 30-year mortgage interest rate hit the highest level in over 7 years, making the monthly P&I payments on a home purchase the least affordable in nearly a decade

BLACK KNIGHT HOME PRICE INDEX HOME PRICE APPRECIATION VS 30-YR FIXED INTEREST RATE






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 16


11.1%

10.3%

14.5% 10.6%

12.5%

9.5%

2.3%

3.9%

7.1%

7.1%

4.3%

4.7%6.5%

5.4%

3.3%

5.7%

8.6%

7.0%

6.2%

2.5%

9.0%

6.2%

2.1%

6.3%

7.2%

5.2%

3.9%

4.2%

5.6%

1.9%

7.8%

3.7%

4.7%

7.6%

5.1%

4.2%

7.6%

6.3%

1.1%

3.2%

0.0% 1 2.0%

201 8-02

ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH RATE – FEB 2018

5.8%

4.5%

5.4%

3.6%

12.4%

12.2%

3.6%7.0%

3.7%6.3%

2.0%

3.0%

5.8%

7.1 %

3.9%

2.6%

6.7%4.0%

1.0%

5.9%

5.7%

5.2%

4.4%

6.6%

7.2%

5.7%

1.9%

4.9%

5.2%

4.2%

3.0%

6.5%

5.3%

2.5%

5.2%

4.3%

9.4%

5.4%

4.1 %

9.2%

6.7%

6.2%

6.0%

3.5%

0.0% 1 2.0%

201 8-1 1

ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH RATE – NOV 2018

5.9%

6.3%5.0%

2.8%

» Despite the recent reductions, home prices remain up from one year ago in all 50 states and 99 of the 100 largest U.S. markets

» Still, noticeable changes are evident across the country

» Deceleration continues to expand, with 36 states and 78 of the 100 largest markets seeing home price growth slow

» While deceleration is being seen in all regions of the country, the heaviest slowing continues to be in the western U.S.

» A simple look at annual HPI rates in February vs. November shows just how much slowing the western states have experienced

» The annual growth rate in California is now 3.7%, down from 10.3% just nine months ago

» Washington has slowed from 12.5% to 6.7% over that same period of time

» As a result, home price appreciation rates are now much more uniform across the country.

ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH RATE – FEB 2018 ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH RATE – NOV 2018






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 17

» As of January 2019, $1,192 in monthly P&I payments is required to purchase the average priced home with a 30-year fixed rate of 4.45% (assuming 20% down)

» While down $56 from November, it's still $111 (+10%) more than at this time last year

» The recent slide in rates, while making the average home more affordable for buyers, may not be enough to curtail ongoing deceleration in home price gains

» Despite slowing home price gains beginning in March 2018, rates, payments and the share of median income needed to buy the average home all remain elevated from where the market reaction began

34.5%

22.3%

4.45%

2.5%

4.0%

5.5%

7.0%

8.5%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1997-0

1

1998-0

1

1999-0

1

2000-0

1

2001-0

1

2002-0

1

2003-0

1

2004-0

1

2005-0

1

2006-0

1

2007-0

1

2008-0

1

2009-0

1

2010-0

1

2011-0

1

2012-0

1

2013-0

1

2014-0

1

2015-0

1

2016-0

1

2017-0

1

2018-0

1

2019-0

1

Fred

die

30-

Year

Fix

ed R

ate

Paym

ent-to

-Inco

me

Rat

io

NATIONAL PAYMENT-TO-INCOME RATIO*Payment to Income Ratio (left Axis) Freddie 30-Year Fixed Interest Rate (right axis)

*The National Payment-to-Income Ratio is the share of median income needed to make the monthly principal and interest payment on the purchase of the median priced home using a 20% down 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate

Recent pull-backs in interest rates and softening home prices have improved the home affordability outlook entering 2019

NATIONAL PAYMENT-TO-INCOME RATIO*






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 18

Dec-18 Monthly Change YTD Change Yearly

ChangeDelinquencies 3.88% 4.71% -9.82% -17.55%

Foreclosure 0.52% 1.19% -20.69% -19.23%

Foreclosure Starts 46,300 2.43% -25.68% 4.04%Seriously Delinquent (90+)

or in Foreclosure 1.51% 0.74% -26.04% -26.89%

New Originations (data as of Nov-18) 494K -4.7% -12.3% -12.3%

Dec-18 Nov-18 Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17Delinquencies 3.88% 3.71% 3.64% 3.97% 3.50% 3.61% 3.74% 3.64% 3.67% 3.73% 4.30% 4.31% 4.71%

Foreclosure 0.52% 0.52% 0.52% 0.52% 0.54% 0.57% 0.56% 0.59% 0.61% 0.63% 0.65% 0.66% 0.65%

Foreclosure Starts 46,300 45,200 50,600 40,000 47,100 48,300 43,500 44,900 49,300 52,100 46,700 62,300 44,500

Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 1.51% 1.50% 1.48% 1.51% 1.52% 1.59% 1.63% 1.70% 1.78% 1.86% 2.01% 2.04% 2.06%

New Originations 494K 518K 481K 599K 564K 605K 597K 542K 547K 440K 457K 563K

4.71

%

4.31

%

4.30

%

3.73

%

3.67

%

3.64

%

3.74

%

3.61

%

3.50

%

3.97

%

3.64

%

3.71

%

3.88

%

Dec-17

Jan-1

8

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-1

8Ju

l-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

TOTAL DELINQUENCIES

563K

457K

440K 54

7K

542K

597K

605K

564K

599K

481K

518K

494K

Dec-17

Jan-1

8

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-1

8Ju

l-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

NEW ORIGINATIONS

DECEMBER 2018 DATA SUMMARY

DECEMBER 2018 APPENDIX





MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 19


Month TOTAL ACTIVE COUNT 30 DAYS 60 DAYS 90+ DAYS FC Total Non-

Current FC Starts Average Days Delinquent for 90+

Average Days Delinquent for FC

Ratio of 90+ to FC

1/31/05 47,706,128 1,197,062 339,920 458,719 276,745 2,272,446 50,922 242 324 165.8%1/31/06 50,900,620 1,242,434 387,907 542,378 258,613 2,431,332 76,477 207 308 209.7%1/31/07 53,900,458 1,425,030 468,441 551,439 393,973 2,838,883 117,419 203 267 140.0%1/31/08 55,478,782 1,743,420 676,266 950,639 813,560 4,183,885 195,033 190 256 116.8%1/31/09 55,788,441 2,001,314 932,436 1,878,981 1,321,029 6,133,760 250,621 193 323 142.2%1/31/10 55,098,009 1,945,589 903,778 2,972,983 2,068,572 7,890,922 292,308 253 418 143.7%1/31/11 53,861,778 1,750,601 746,634 2,078,130 2,245,250 6,820,615 277,374 333 527 92.6%1/31/12 52,687,781 1,592,463 652,524 1,796,698 2,205,818 6,247,503 223,394 395 666 81.5%1/31/13 51,229,692 1,464,583 587,661 1,551,415 1,742,689 5,346,348 156,654 460 803 89.0%1/31/14 50,380,779 1,341,074 529,524 1,278,955 1,213,046 4,362,599 97,467 486 935 105.4%1/31/15 50,412,744 1,238,453 465,849 1,060,002 884,901 3,649,204 93,280 509 1,031 119.8%1/31/16 50,541,353 1,298,682 444,594 831,284 659,237 3,233,797 71,900 495 1,047 126.1%1/31/17 50,871,357 1,108,712 389,768 663,521 480,598 2,642,599 70,357 454 1,013 138.1%1/31/18 51,155,753 1,083,162 412,676 706,623 336,613 2,539,074 62,312 364 932 209.9%2/28/18 51,154,575 1,114,486 386,518 696,802 330,505 2,528,312 46,720 367 930 210.8%3/31/18 51,282,283 942,600 336,892 632,157 320,686 2,232,335 52,094 388 928 197.1%4/30/18 51,378,198 960,902 325,538 598,191 314,016 2,198,647 49,280 395 929 190.5%5/31/18 51,338,774 970,417 328,860 568,110 303,412 2,170,799 44,866 401 937 187.2%6/30/18 51,520,891 1,040,477 335,991 548,366 290,744 2,215,577 43,454 404 935 188.6%7/31/18 51,545,452 991,310 342,054 527,919 292,999 2,154,282 48,263 406 925 180.2%8/31/18 51,607,496 967,665 335,317 505,598 280,660 2,089,240 47,081 417 912 180.1%9/30/18 51,636,125 1,170,068 366,120 512,681 268,332 2,317,201 40,001 399 905 191.1%

10/31/18 51,721,408 1,024,613 360,394 499,187 267,333 2,151,527 50,561 405 888 186.7%11/30/18 51,915,782 1,052,178 363,183 509,568 267,745 2,192,673 45,153 397 859 190.3%12/31/18 51,837,446 1,127,726 373,562 511,345 270,517 2,283,150 46,298 391 852 189.0%

LOAN COUNTS AND AVERAGE DAYS DELINQUENT






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 20

State Del % FC % NC%Year/Year Change in

NC%State Del % FC % NC%

Year/Year Change in

NC%State Del % FC % NC%

Year/Year Change in

NC%National 3.9% 0.5% 4.4% -17.7% National 3.9% 0.5% 4.4% -17.7% National 3.9% 0.5% 4.4% -17.7%MS 9.4% 0.7% 10.1% -10.9% TX 4.8% 0.4% 5.2% -28.4% WI* 3.3% 0.5% 3.9% -15.0%LA* 7.2% 0.9% 8.1% -16.9% IL* 4.4% 0.7% 5.1% -1.6% NH 3.5% 0.3% 3.8% -15.8%AL 6.5% 0.4% 7.0% -11.2% OH* 4.4% 0.7% 5.1% -14.3% VA 3.6% 0.2% 3.8% -6.3%WV 6.1% 0.6% 6.7% -14.2% TN 4.8% 0.3% 5.0% -17.8% NV 2.9% 0.6% 3.5% -14.8%AR 5.8% 0.5% 6.3% -8.8% NC 4.6% 0.4% 4.9% -6.3% WY 3.0% 0.3% 3.4% -17.6%IN* 5.3% 0.8% 6.1% -12.0% FL* 4.1% 0.9% 4.9% -46.6% AK 3.0% 0.3% 3.3% -9.8%ME* 4.6% 1.4% 6.0% -13.8% VT* 3.8% 1.1% 4.9% -9.6% AZ 2.8% 0.2% 3.0% -11.8%RI 5.1% 0.8% 5.9% -12.4% KS* 4.3% 0.5% 4.8% -11.9% SD* 2.5% 0.4% 2.8% -9.9%NY* 4.3% 1.5% 5.8% -11.2% NM* 3.8% 0.9% 4.7% -15.1% UT 2.5% 0.2% 2.7% -17.5%OK* 4.9% 0.9% 5.8% -13.3% HI* 3.1% 1.5% 4.6% -11.3% MT 2.3% 0.3% 2.6% -7.6%CT* 4.9% 0.9% 5.8% -7.9% KY* 3.8% 0.6% 4.4% -17.0% MN 2.4% 0.2% 2.6% -9.1%PA* 5.0% 0.8% 5.8% -14.8% MO 4.0% 0.3% 4.3% -14.1% CA 2.4% 0.2% 2.6% -13.1%DE* 4.8% 0.8% 5.6% -12.0% MA 3.7% 0.5% 4.2% -18.1% ND* 1.9% 0.6% 2.5% -2.5%SC* 5.0% 0.6% 5.6% -9.2% MI 3.9% 0.2% 4.1% -15.5% ID 2.1% 0.2% 2.3% -17.4%MD* 4.9% 0.6% 5.5% -10.8% IA* 3.5% 0.5% 4.0% -8.0% WA 2.0% 0.3% 2.3% -16.7%GA 5.1% 0.3% 5.5% -14.3% NE* 3.7% 0.3% 4.0% 2.5% OR 1.8% 0.3% 2.1% -18.6%NJ* 4.2% 1.0% 5.2% -17.2% DC 3.3% 0.6% 3.9% 2.9% CO 1.8% 0.1% 1.9% -15.4%

* - Indicates Judicial State

STATE-BY-STATE RANKINGS BY NON-CURRENT LOAN POPULATION






MORTGAGE MONITOR

DECEMBER 2018 | 21

http://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BKI_MM-Disclosures.pdf

You can reach us by email [email protected]

Follow us on Twitter@Black_KnightInc

DECEMBER 2018 DISCLOSURE





mailto:Mortgage.Monitor%40bkfs.com%20?subject=

https://twitter.com/black_knightinc?lang=en

Date post:	09-Apr-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	5 times
Download:	0 times

MORTGAGE MONITOR - Black Knight, Inc. · 2020-01-23 · Black Knight’s ‘First Look’ at...

Documents