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Pathways Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien On Behalf of Keywan Riahi
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PathwaysNebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU WienOn Behalf of Keywan Riahi
Energy Access
Energy Security
Climate Change
The Key Energy Challenges
Air PollutionHealth Impacts
Energy Goal
Providing universal access to affordable clean cooking and electricity for the poor
Eliminating air pollution and health damages from energy use
Improving energy security throughout the world
Stabilizing global mean temperature at 2oC through vigorous decarbonization
Global Energy Assessment (GEA, 2012)
Energy Access (2010)People without access to electricity or clean cooking
>3 billion without access to clean cooking1.3 billion without access to electricity
GEA: Chapter 19 (Pachauri et al, 2012)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Glo
bal C
O2 e
mis
sions
(GtC
O2)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
GEA - SupplyGEA - MixGEA - Efficiency
Global CO2 EmissionsLimiting temperature change to below 2°C
Peak by 2020
reductions of 30-70% by 2050
almost zero or negative in the long term
CO2 from fossil fuels & industry
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012)
Energy Access
Energy SecurityEnvironment
“Technology Drive”
“Env
ironm
enta
l & S
ocia
l
Awar
enes
s”
“Regional D
iversity”
GEA Scenarios & Energy Challenges
MixEfficiency
Su
pp
ly
SustainableDevelopment
Energy Access
Energy SecurityEnvironment
“Technology Push”
“Env
ironm
enta
l & S
ocia
l
Awar
enes
s”
“Regional D
iversity”
AC
B
SustainableDevelopment
• Very high efficiency & rapid energy intensity improvements
• behavioral/life-style changes, including mobility, diets toward less meat, interconnected homes, etc..
• Sensitivity: 0-nuclear & 0-CCS cases• Very stringent climate targets (400 ppm
equ. with overshoot or 450 ppm without)
• Massive supply-side changes and new infrastructures• Eg: H2 + very cheap CCS, nuclear and renewables• Intermediary energy intensity improvement (higher demand than C)• stringent climate targets (450 ppm equ. with high overshoot or 500 ppm)
• Heterogeneous combinations, eg C&B• Different regions with different degree of
fulfillment of SD criteria• Rapid access and security improvements• Intermediate climate targets (550 ppm equ.
or 500 ppm with overshoot) and implications of delayed participation
• Sensitivity: implications of financial crises (transition under capital scarcity);
Characteristics of Pathways
2500GEA-Efficiency
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pri
mary
Energ
y, EJ per
year
0
500
1000
1500
2000Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)
Fossil CCS (optional bridging technology)
Bio-CCS & negative emissions (long-term)
Phase-out of oil in the long term(necessary)
Coal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
NuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOil
SavingsGeothermalSolarWind
Efficiency & Demand-side Focus(= high flexibility for supply)
~50% renewables by 2050
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012)
GEA-Efficiency
Coal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
NuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOil
SavingsGeothermalSolarWind
Supply-side Focus(= high demand-side flexibility)
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012)
GEA-Supply
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pri
mary
Energ
y, EJ per
year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Rapid up-scaling of supply options including renewables, nuclear and CCS
Modest efficiency focus GEA-Supply
In total 41 alternative pathways have been explored…
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y S
up
ply
[EJ/yr]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Advancedtransportation
Conventionaltransportation
Transformation: Constrained PortfolioGEA Efficiency – Rapid Energy Intensity Improvement
Un
restr
icte
d P
ort
folio
No N
ucle
ar
No B
ioC
CS
No S
inks
Lim
ited
Bio
-en
erg
yLim
ited
Ren
ew
ab
les
No C
CS
No N
ucle
ar
& C
CS
Lim
. B
io-e
nerg
y &
R
en
ew
ab
les
No B
ioC
CS
, S
ink &
lim
Bio
-en
erg
yU
nre
str
icte
d P
ort
folio
No N
ucle
ar
No B
ioC
CS
No S
inks
Lim
ited
Bio
-en
erg
yLim
ited
Ren
ew
ab
les
No C
CS
No N
ucle
ar
& C
CS
Lim
. B
io-e
nerg
y &
R
en
ew
ab
les
No B
ioC
CS
, S
ink &
lim
Bio
-en
erg
y
Scenario data available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb/Supply Side Technology Variation
Demand Side Technology Variation
Scenario data available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb/
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y S
up
ply
[EJ/yr]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Un
restr
icte
d P
ort
folio
No N
ucle
ar
No B
ioC
CS
No S
inks
Lim
ited
Bio
-en
erg
yLim
ited
Ren
ew
ab
les
No C
CS
No N
ucle
ar
& C
CS
Lim
. B
io-e
nerg
y &
R
en
ew
ab
les
No B
ioC
CS
, S
ink &
lim
Bio
-en
erg
yU
nre
str
icte
d P
ort
folio
No N
ucle
ar
No B
ioC
CS
No S
inks
Lim
ited
Bio
-en
erg
yLim
ited
Ren
ew
ab
les
No C
CS
No N
ucle
ar
& C
CS
Lim
. B
io-e
nerg
y &
R
en
ew
ab
les
No B
ioC
CS
, S
ink &
lim
Bio
-en
erg
y
Advancedtransportation
Conventionaltransportation
Transformation: Constrained PortfolioGEA-Mix – Intermediate Energy Intensity Improvement
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y S
up
ply
[EJ/yr]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Advancedtransportation
Conventionaltransportation
Un
restr
icte
d P
ort
folio
No N
ucle
ar
No B
ioC
CS
No S
inks
Lim
ited
Bio
-en
erg
yLim
ited
Ren
ew
ab
les
No C
CS
No N
ucle
ar
& C
CS
Lim
. B
io-e
nerg
y &
R
en
ew
ab
les
No B
ioC
CS
, S
ink &
lim
Bio
-en
erg
yU
nre
str
icte
d P
ort
folio
No N
ucle
ar
No B
ioC
CS
No S
inks
Lim
ited
Bio
-en
erg
yLim
ited
Ren
ew
ab
les
No C
CS
No N
ucle
ar
& C
CS
Lim
. B
io-e
nerg
y &
R
en
ew
ab
les
No B
ioC
CS
, S
ink &
lim
Bio
-en
erg
y
Scenario data available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb/
Transformation: Constrained PortfolioGEA Supply – Slow Energy Intensity Improvement
#15
GEA-Efficiency
Industry:1. Retrofit of existing plants2. Best available technology for
new investments3. Optimization of energy &
material flows 4. Lifecycle product design &
enhanced recycling5. Electrification incl. switch to
renewable energy
Global Final Energy Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ /
yr
Transport
Residential/Commercial
Industry
Residential:1. Rapid introduction of
strict building codes2. Accelerate retrofit rate
to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050)
3. Improved electrical appliances
Transport:1. Technology
efficiency (50%)2. Reduced private
mobility (eg urban planning)
3. Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight
World Energy Investments1250 billion$ (incl. demand) in 2010
Industrialized55%
Developing45%Demand (Energy
components)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission/Distr.
Fossil Electricity
NuclearRenewable Electricity
Other conversion
Upstream:Fossil Fuels 30%
Electricity 40%
Demand > 25%300-1700 billion
Total Energy InvestmentsIndustrialized vs Developing World
Developing
Industrialized
Investment Portfolio – China2010 & 2050
Oil Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil ElectricityNuclear
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
2050
Today(185 bill.)
No Sustainability Policies(370 bill)
2005-2010
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Nuclear
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
Efficiency(marginal)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Nuclear
Renewable Electricity
CCS
Other conversion
Oil Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil ElectricityNuclear
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
2050 2050
Today(185 bill.)
No Sustainability Policies(370 bill)
GEA-Supply(530 bill.)
2005-2010
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Nuclear
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
Investment Portfolio – China2010 & 2050
Efficiency(marginal)
OilGasCoal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
CCS
Other conversion
Oil Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil ElectricityNuclear
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
2005-2010
20502050
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Nuclear
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
Today(185 bill.)
No Sustainability Policies(370 bill)
GEA-Efficiency(407 bill.)
Investment Portfolio – China2010 & 2050
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity TransmissionFossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
2050
Today(30 bill.)
No Sustainability Policies(226 bill.)
2005-2010
Investment Portfolios Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Efficiency(marginal)
Oil
GasCoal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
CCS Other conversion
GEA-Efficiency(309 bill.)
2050
Today(30 bill.)
No Sustainability Policies(226 bill.)
2005-2010
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity TransmissionFossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
Investment Portfolios Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
GEA Health Assessment
Present air pollution policies to 2030
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, forthcoming)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~50.3 µg/m3
(a)World Emissions
(2030)
WHO health guidelines
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3
(e)
Stringent pollution/access policies by 2030
2.6 million lives saved each year
GEA Health Assessment
World Emissions (2030)
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, forthcoming)
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal P
olic
y Co
sts (
2010
-203
0)
Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
GEA-Databasewww.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb
