RETAILING – TRENDS AND NATIONAL CONTEXT Introduction Although a major focus of this study is on preparing a quantitative retail floorspace need assessment for Dundee City Council, it is useful to set local shopper behaviour, retailer intentions and town centre performance within the context of national retail and consumer trends. Retailing is a dynamic industry and the way it evolves will have important implications for all parts of the UK, including the Dundee regional area. Retailing – Periods of Rapid Change During the 1980s and 1990s the UK retailing industry underwent a radical transformation. Fired by a growing volume of consumer spending, a considerable economic boom occurred. Figure 1 illustrates the growth in consumer retail expenditure since 1994. Between 1994 and 2004, for example, retail spend rose by around £100,000 million. This rapid increase was due to the easy availability of credit, a booming house market and increasing consumer confidence which translated into consumer expenditure. Figure 1 Annual Retail Sales, 1994-2004 – At Current Prices 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year £m Total Retail Spending High Street Retail Sales Source: Verdict 1
Transcript
RETAILING – TRENDS AND NATIONAL CONTEXT
Introduction
Although a major focus of this study is on preparing a quantitative retail floorspace need
assessment for Dundee City Council, it is useful to set local shopper behaviour, retailer intentions
and town centre performance within the context of national retail and consumer trends. Retailing
is a dynamic industry and the way it evolves will have important implications for all parts of the
UK, including the Dundee regional area.
Retailing – Periods of Rapid Change During the 1980s and 1990s the UK retailing industry underwent a radical transformation. Fired
by a growing volume of consumer spending, a considerable economic boom occurred. Figure 1
illustrates the growth in consumer retail expenditure since 1994. Between 1994 and 2004, for
example, retail spend rose by around £100,000 million. This rapid increase was due to the easy
availability of credit, a booming house market and increasing consumer confidence which
translated into consumer expenditure.
Figure 1 Annual Retail Sales, 1994-2004 – At Current Prices
The general confidence in retail markets through to 2005 was a result of a buoyant national
economy, resulting in increasing consumer affluence and confidence. Positive economic
indicators including growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), relatively low inflation and falling
unemployment. This confidence in the economy saw improvements in rents across all property
sectors. Property also witnessed a significant increase in investment from institutional investors.
The Retail Downturn of 2005
2005 saw a major change in the retail market. The rise in mortgage interest rates that dissipated
the house price boom has reduced mortgage equity withdrawal and left less for discretionary
spending. Earnings growth has moderated and the CBI has reported that sales are falling at a
faster rate than at any time since 1992. Any fall in house prices will affect retail. There is a
correlation between house price inflation and growth of retail consumer spending. A similar
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relationship exists between retail sales growth and retail rents which in some locations were
falling by the end of 2005.
A common thread amongst 2005’s retail failure is mediocrity. The specialists, such as Blacks
Camping, that go the extra mile to provide a stimulating environment, a broad range, interesting
merchandise and excellent service continue to thrive. The advance of supermarkets into non-food
is also an issue which cannot be ignored by High Street retailers. The supermarkets are in a
winning position as the footfall generated by the core food business is exposed to the higher
margin non-food product. The high street retailers need to compete with the supermarkets on
costs and distinguish themselves and the high street shopping experience as more exciting than
that of the supermarket if they are to have any chance of success.
The current demand for retail space is in shops which are around 300 sq m to 800 sq m in an
edge of prime / good secondary location and is no more than £200,000 pax, but which also needs
to be in the right town. For shops such as these, the interested parties would include Poundland,
Peacocks, Savers/Superdrug, Robert Dyas, Mackays, 99p Stores and Currys.
For the same size range but in prime and in the top 100 towns and with rentals of up to £400,000
pax the main contenders are HMV, Waterstones, Virgin, Silverscreen, River Island, Monsoon,
Republic, USC, Qube, New Look and Arcadia.
The 100 sq m to 200 sq m market is more problematic particularly when these units are in prime
and, comparatively, expensive locations. Unfortunately, a number of the portfolios that hit the
market this year are characterised by such units. They are too small for fashion operators which
generally can drive the profits to pay higher rents, which leaves coffee shops and mobile phone
operators at the forefront of the market. The leading mobile phone businesses and indeed coffee
shops are now located in the majority of major centres and their attention has turned to small
towns and suburbs.
At the other extreme of the size range, for units between 2,500 sq m to 5,000 sq m, it has been a
busy period as of late for traders. BHS and Primark have taken advantage of the opportunities
presented by the demise of Allders, as did a number of landlords which saw the potential to split
the stores into very marketable chunks. Demand for this space has come from Arcadia, New
Look, Sports World, George, TK Maxx and H&M.
There has also been a degree of activity in the Class 2/A2 (financial and professional services)
market. There are relatively few banks expanding and the emphasis has been on resites and
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disposals. Former banks and building societies that come to the market with A2 consents are
being quickly absorbed by betting shops, pawn brokers and amusement operators.
Overall, it appears that there will be a level of voids not seen on the High Street for several years.
However, despite the fact that there will be further retail failures and closures, the established
players still remain, along with emerging retailers, both of whom understand the evermore
complex dynamics which dictate success or failure and who will help to maintain the retail market.
Out of Town Retailing and Leisure
Food
Food retailers continued to expand through the recession of the early 1990s, particularly in out of
centre locations. The slow growth in convenience goods expenditure (illustrated in Figure 7)
contributed to the expansion plans for food retailers by forcing them to fight for market share and
to benefit further from economies of scale. The logic appears to be that to increase market share
and profits, there is a need to increase floorspace.
Figure 7 Consumer Retail Expenditure per Head by Goods Type, Annual Average for the UK (Constant Prices) between 1980 and 2004
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
Inde
x 19
80=1
00
Convenience GoodsComparison GoodsAll Goods
Source: MapInfo Information Brief 05/02 – September 2005
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In the past, increasing floorspace was achieved mainly through new superstore development,
especially out of centre. However, with government and Scottish Executive planning policy
curtailing opportunities out of centre, the major operators are increasingly looking to extend their
existing stores. Extensions are used to accommodate non-food ranges which have lower sales
densities (than food) but generate better margins. Larger stores also enable food store operators
to diversify into services or to accommodate in-store service use concessions (e.g. coffee shops,
dry cleaners, shoe repairers and photographic processing).
Smaller store formats have been devised by a number of major food store operators and this has
also spearheaded the movement back to town centres. An example of the new formats is Tesco
with its “Metro” and “Express” concepts. The promotion of town centre living, along with the
growth in one person households as well as an increasingly ageing population, has created a
market for in-town supermarkets.
The growth in the number of larger superstores (Table 1) has been at the expense of smaller
supermarkets and other food specialists. The net effect of the expansion of the superstores has
been a loss of over 21,000 food shops over the past decade, although the rate of store closures
has slowed over time.
Table 1 Total Grocery Store Numbers by Retailer Type 1994-2004
Year Larger Supermarkets Food Other Total 1994 988 37,747 45,376 65,095 149,206
1995 1,027 36,314 43,107 63,253 143,701
1996 1,053 35,317 41,931 61,395 139,696
1997 1,084 34,438 41,493 61,103 138,118
1998 1,117 33,766 41,321 60,425 136,629
1999 1,150 33,586 40,891 59,653 135,280
2000 1,180 33,228 40,351 58,948 133,707
2001 1,235 33,040 39,699 58,232 132,206
2002 1,292 32,785 39,131 57,500 130,708
2003 1,319 32,523 38,480 56,946 129,268
2004 1,351 32,423 38,011 56,323 128,108
% 36.7 -14.1 -16.2 -13.5 -14.1
Source: Verdict on Grocery Retailers, December 2004
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Non-Food
Following many years of rapid growth, the out of town retail warehouse sector suffered a down-
town at the end of the 1980s. By the mid 1990s it had recovered, and this led to another long
period of growth in the sector. However, the long-expected polarisation of out-of-town retail by
planning use is now finally occurring, as the bulky goods sector reaches a level of maturity not yet
matched by the Open Class 1/A1 sector.
According to the Colliers CRE out-of-town retail warehouse database, average rents across the
sector are significantly lower than stated in the national press, and the bulky goods sector is in
fact struggling as consumers appear to be avoiding big-ticket and long-term purchase plans. A
downturn in sales and pressure on margins are causing many retailers to revaluate the rents they
can afford to pay and, in some instances, retailers are becoming part of the supply chain. The
historic imbalance between supply and demand, which has caused the rapid rental growth of the
past, will be eroded in the majority of instances, resulting in something closer to equilibrium.
In addition, artificial restraints are being imposed on the market in the form of new legislation both
in England, Wales and Scotland, restricting the ability to install mezzanine accommodation. This
new piece of legislation will enhance the polarisation between those that already have a
mezzanine and those that don’t, due to the fact that space with mezzanine accommodation in situ
will be in greater demand than space without it. Mezzanines have long been used by retailers to
enlarge both sales and storage at no ongoing occupational cost. As a result, the ability to pay rent
will be reduced, as ultimately, the total sales area per store will fall.
Both Open Class 1/A1 and bulky good retailers utilise mezzanine floors, including Homebase,
Comet, ScS, Next, TK Maxx and Sports Soccer. Therefore, since obtaining consent for
mezzanines will be more difficult, particularly for Open A1 units, many retailers will not be able to
pay the same levels of rent as previously offered. However, despite this, in the Open Class1
sector, demand for the best schemes remains strong and it is likely that rent inflation will continue
as ultimately retail warehousing remains cheap when compared to the high street.
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Leisure
The concept of the out of town leisure park, anchored by a multiplex cinema and bringing
together a range of leisure and restaurant uses, evolved rapidly during the 1990s. Like the retail
sector, large sites of 4.0 ha or more have typically been sought with a catchment of about
250,000 people in a 20 minute drive time. However, new government planning policy is also
beginning to have an impact on the leisure sector, particularly in relation to the sequential
approach to site location.
2005 brought to fruition the long-awaited consolidation in the multiplex market, leaving almost two
thirds of UK cinemas in the hands of three private-equity-controlled companies, namely Terra
Firma, The Blackstone Group and Vue Entertainment. However, a limited demand scenario such
as this will simply serve to dampen rental growth prospects in a sector where rental growth has
been limited over recent years.
Private money is still being poured into the established leisure sectors, such as cinema, bowling,
gaming, health and fitness and nightclubs. However attention has also spread from these
established urban-based sectors into “softer” areas of the leisure market, where similarly-high
levels of investment are being maintained, for example, caravan parks.
The reform of gaming legislation which occurred in early 2005 has been toned down considerably
from the reforms that were being suggested a year earlier. Following media-led objections,
centred around social responsibility and gambling addiction, the Government has scaled down
the extent of new casino developments. In April 2005, the Gaming Bill was passed, which stated
that the number of Regional Casinos would be limited to just one. Eight locations have been
placed on a shortlist for the development; Blackpool, Wembley Stadium, Cardiff, Glasgow, the
Millennium Dome, Manchester, Newcastle upon Tyne and Sheffield. However, more recently
(post general election) there appears to be a renewed softening of the government’s position with
the prospect of a larger number of large and medium size casinos emerging.
The wider provisions of the April 2005 legislation include the scrapping of the 24-hour
membership rule and a general loosening of regulations relating to payouts and marketing. These
changes, when they come into effect, should generally improve the trading performance of
existing operations and could lead ultimately to a greater level of rental growth than these sectors
have experienced over recent years.
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Scotland In general Scotland's High Streets have seen fairly little movement in rental/Zone A levels over
the last few years with, only Aberdeen and Dundee of the main city centres showing any decent
growth and again, these conditions are expected to continue. However, there appears more
optimism for the Scottish market than some other regions of the UK. The housing market
remains reasonably strong and retail expenditure levels north of the border are higher than the
UK national average. Also the Scottish market has historically tended to show relative stability in
comparison to other regions of the UK and notably at present, we are seeing expansion from a
number of leading national retailers including Monsoon, New Look, Next, H&M, Zara and
Debenhams etc.
Rents on the retail parks have continued to see good growth however, it is clear that the main
push has been on the premier Open Class 1 parks where a good number of High Street names
are now represented i.e. Glasgow Fort and Fort Kinnaird, Edinburgh.
Again, in line with the rest of the UK, the level of development in Scotland has been significant
over the last few years and it is likely that until the majority of this supply is taken up, the rental
levels in most locations will remain fairly stable. Major schemes currently under construction
include Ayr Central; Cumbernauld, Antonine Centre; Glasgow, Silverburn (Pollok); Aberdeen,
Union Square and proposals to extend existing centres such as Livingston, Almondvale; Dundee,
Overgate; Glasgow, Buchanan Galleries and St Enoch, as well as numerous smaller road side
developments and retail warehouse developments in places such as Lanark, Linlithgow and Wick
etc all of which obviously add significantly to the availability of good quality retail floor space to
cater for existing and future demands.
The Future of Out of Centre Retailing and the Implications for Town Centres
The Government and the Scottish Executive, through a number of decisions and statements, has
confirmed its support for town centres and restricting / preventing out of town proposals.
In July 1997 the Government’s Response to the Fourth Report from the House of Commons
Select Committee on the Environment, “Shopping Centres”, was published. This states that:
• “The Government is firmly committed to the objectives of PPG 6, which seeks to
sustain and enhance the vitality and viability of our existing city, town and district
centres, to make them the focus for investment, particularly in retail, office,
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leisure and other appropriate developments, so as to provide easy access to a
wide range of facilities and services by a choice of means of transport. Such
investment is essential to the regeneration and enhancement of the
attractiveness of our town and city centres.” (Paragraph 1).
Despite the introduction of PPG6 in 1988 as into English Planning policy, and the subsequent
revisions in 1993 and 1996, the number of retail park openings has not fallen, as expected. This
has largely been due to developers utilising previously unimplemented planning consents.
However, the more recent publication of PPS6 in England has further consolidated the
government’s position on town centre development, and it is now that the impact of government
policy on the development pipeline for retail parks, particularly in England, is finally being seen. In
2006, for example, the number of new retail park openings will be similar to both 2005 and 2004,
but the amount of new floorspace will fall dramatically to 180,000 sq m, only two-thirds of that
developed two years ago.
In Scotland, the planning policy situation has been largely similar. In April 1996 the Scottish Office
produced NPPG 8 ‘Retailing’ which was subsequently revised in 1998, producing NPPG 8 ‘Town
Centres and Retailing’. This document emphasised the importance of town centres as the first
choice for new retail developments and introduced the sequential approach to retail development.
This has been reflected in new Scottish Executive guidance, SPP 8 ‘Town Centres and Retailing’,
which re-emphasises town centres as the primary choice for not only retailing but as mixture of
commercial and leisure uses.
The evolution of occupational requirements within the sector has generally been towards smaller
units, with the exception of the large, destination, DIY formats. This trend has provided a stock of
opportunities, as parties relocate to more suitable, modern premises. This evolution has resulted
in older schemes which do not comply with modern requirements, in some instances being either
substantially refurbished or redeveloped.
The other key source of new retail parks has been the foodstore operators, which through their
success of achieving new supermarket consents have provided their old or surplus units for
redevelopment. These include the former Safeway at Brent Cross and the former Tesco at
Llantrisant, both of which have been redeveloped into shopping parks.
More recently, DIY operators have been moving to the smaller market towns, where it is easier to
comply with the legislatory requirements, as suitable sites are often next to, or within, the
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designated shopping area, but are still accessible by car. However, in the larger centres,
developers – and ultimately occupiers – are having to compromise on either layout, or in some
instances, by being part of a larger mixed-use scheme.
E-Shopping
In November 2002, monthly UK online sales passed the £1 billion mark for the first time, and in
2004 the e-tail industry generated £14.5 billion of revenue in the UK alone. Between April 2000
and April 2005, the IMRG index recorded £42 billion of online shopping, representing an increase
in e-tail sales of 1500%. Online sales have therefore risen rapidly to become an integral part of
the British retail market, and are still growing.
Consumer confidence in online retailers has risen as shoppers have tested out the Internet and
found websites increasingly easy to navigate, credit card use to be secure and delivery to be
convenient and reliable. The ease of comparing the price of goods and services has also led
sales to soar.
It is important to note that not all of the growth in online sales impacts directly on spend available
to the high street. Nevertheless, online sales are now beyond the point where growth is simply
cannibalisation of more traditional home shopping formats. Prior to the explosion of the Internet,
mail order was estimated to account for around 4.5% of UK retail sales, and there were fears
initially that the catalogue market would be the hardest hit and first to suffer. In fact, the opposite
has occurred and most catalogue retailers have adopted the internet as an alternative and
complementary sales channel. Rather than losing business to the internet many of the traditional
catalogue retailers have used it as an opportunity to expand and companies such as Kays,
Empire Stores and La ReDoute are all now operating successful websites.
The largest online retailer in Europe is currently Tesco, while Ocado, Waitrose’s online presence,
has overtaken Sainsbury’s as the UK’s second biggest online grocer. However, convenience
shopping on the internet is not without its problems and some stores often struggle to break even,
illustrated by Iceland’s recent decision to close its online service.
In terms of non-food high street retailers, the use of the internet remains mixed. Discount retailers
find the cost of delivery erodes their price advantage, whilst high-value brands are also
predominantly choosing to stick with traditional outlets, in order to provide the service and
shopping experience that customers associate with their products. It is actually the middle market
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stores such as Next, River Island, Dorothy Perkins and Top Shop, which are now operating
transactional websites, but the success of these sites is yet to be proven.
Retail Outlook
High Street retailing was in equilibrium in mid 2001, at which point the supply of shop units was in
balance with the demand for them. Between 2001 and 2005, despite the events of September 11
2001, occupier demand improved reflecting a robust economic climate and increased consumer
affluence. This positive performance fed through into prime rental growth of 4.0% between mid
2004 and mid 2005, up on the 3.4% achieved during 2003/04.
The key characteristics of the in-town retail market are as follows:
• Current retail demand is for unit sizes of around 300 sq m to 800 sq m in an edge
of prime / good secondary location;
• Supermarkets are in a winning position which has a domino effect upon high
street retailers necessitating them to compete not only on a cost basis but also to
distinguish themselves and the high street shopping experience from the
supermarkets if they are to have any chance of success;
• There will be a level of voids not seen on the High Street for several years,
although the more established players still remain, along with emerging retailers;
Recent research undertaken by Streetbroadcast found that the shopper profile of out-of-town
centres veers towards high-spending A/B socio-economic groups and attracts the 34/54 year old
age group. As a result, more new entrants are appearing from the high street, including amongst
others Zara, which recently secured its first out-of-town store at The Glasgow Fort.
Obtaining planning consent for an out of centre retail development continues to be difficult. It has
now become essential to identify sites through the sequential approach, rather than identifying
the site first and then trying to bend the sequential approach to meet it. The timing of
development has also become more important than ever.
Going forwards, we estimate that around 4.5 million sq m of new shopping centres are planned
for the next five years, an unprecedented development pipeline. However, it is possible that many
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of these schemes will be delayed, in part, because of the recent downturn in consumer
expenditure and also due to the lack of a viable anchor store.
The leisure market is currently being directly affected by the Government. For example, the
Casino legislation together with changes to the licensing laws are creating unforeseen problems.
The leisure sector has also seen considerable corporate activity, which is likely to shape its future
for many years to come.
The next 12 months are set to be a difficult time for a number of retailers as they are squeezed by
lower consumer expenditure growth and higher costs. However, this does not necessarily mean
the on-set of a retail recession – it could be that the market is just going through a period of re-
adjustment after a period of strong growth.
In the medium to longer term the retail property market is likely to be impacted by a number of
important national trends, the most important of which are:
• A rapidly ageing population – by 2016 it is estimated that there will be 2.1 million
fewer people aged under 40, but 3.5 million more people over 40 years of age;
• A declining share of consumer expenditure – although disposable incomes have
risen every year for more than a decade, the proportion of expenditure which is
spent on retailing goods fell from 38.9% in 1990 to 34.6% in 2000 and has
continued to fall;
• An increasing concentration of retail activity in the largest towns and cities – in
the 1960s it took 200 retail locations to account for 50% of all UK non-food sales
but today this same proportion of turnover is channelled through less than 80
retail centres and the number is forecast to decrease even more.
Summary
Although prime rents have been rising each year since 1993-94, in real terms values remain
lower than those achieved more than a decade ago and in recent years they have hit a plateau.
The advancement of supermarkets into non-food is an issue which is affecting the High Street
retailers and which cannot be ignored. The number of voids on the High Street is set to reach a
level not seen for several years. However, despite the number of retail failures and closures, the
more established players will still remain, along with the new emerging retailers. Another area
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which should be closely watched is e-tailing. Online sales have risen rapidly and are now an
integral part of the British retail market, and are still growing. Fears that e-tailing would put an end
to the traditional High Street store and to the mail order market seem to have been unfounded.
Rather than losing business to the internet, many of the traditional catalogue retailers have used
it as an opportunity to expand and many middle market high street stores have followed their
example. In addition, some retailers which started out as purely internet sites are now seeking
High Street representation suggesting that there is in fact a symbiotic relationship developing
between the internet and the High Street.
In terms of out-of-town retailing, in the past, increasing floorspace was achieved mainly through
new retail warehouse and superstore development. However, with government planning policy
curtailing opportunities out of centre, the traditional development pipeline has dried up.
Fortunately, developers have found an alternative source of sites; for example supermarkets
have been offering their old or surplus units for redevelopment into shopping parks, and DIY
operators have been moving to the smaller market towns instead.
Finally, general trends within the retail industry should not be ignored. Retailers are constantly
monitoring changing trends in fashion and demographics so that consumer demand is satisfied.
Retailing is an evolving process with retailers constantly adapting to demand and increasingly
analysing and targeting customers. These continual changes have important implications for
property and retail location, which in turn are related to retail policy. Local authorities should
therefore regularly monitor the dynamic retail sector in order to ensure that their policies are both
up to date and appropriate.
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Appendix 2
Quantitative Retail Need: Methodology, Data Sources And Assumptions Objectives
A major objective of this study is to estimate the quantitative need for additional retail floorspace
within Dundee City through to 2017. The quantitative assessment has been undertaken for each
of the three main categories of retailing - convenience goods, and non-bulky and bulky
comparison goods.
Although the assessment is necessarily detailed and relatively complex, we have at all stages
sought to achieve transparency in our calculations. We have followed a traditional approach to
estimating retail need and have incorporated the very latest data on consumer expenditure, retail
floorspace and population as well as carrying out a new household telephone survey. This should
ensure that our assessment is up to date, comprehensive and robust.
Chapter 3 of the report describes the quantitative need analysis that we have carried out and
presents the results. In this Section we introduce the need methodology, summarise the role of
the household telephone survey and (for convenience) set out in one place the main assumptions
and definitions which we have used, and our principal sources of data.
Quantitative Need Methodology
The need for additional retail floorspace within an area (or town) is dependent on the future
relationship between the demand for and supply of space, ideally after taking into account the
extent (if any) of any over / under trading that is occurring at the base year. The demand for
floorspace is then determined by assessing the likely growth in the volume of consumer retail
expenditure, while an assessment of floorspace supply involves quantifying the extent to which
proposed changes in the location, quality and quantity of retail floorspace will meet the forecast
increases in expenditure. Any monetary shortfall of supply relative to demand in the future
indicates there is a need for more floorspace in quantitative terms. The scale of additional retail
provision is then determined by converting the excess consumer expenditure (or headroom
expenditure) into a retail floorspace need total by applying appropriate sales densities. In
practice, because shopping patterns are complex and vary for different types of goods, the
methodology utilises survey data to predict existing shopping patterns.
1
In practice, commercial considerations are also important in estimating the need for more
floorspace; if a quantitative assessment identifies that there is scope for more space, but the
market is too weak to let it, then clearly any proposed expansion may need to be reconsidered.
Alternatively, there may be instances when market demand for providing additional retail
floorspace exceeds the retail need indicated by the quantitative need assessment.
Our methodology for estimating quantitative need is presented diagrammatically in Figure 1
overleaf. An important ‘working’ assumption is that we assume that the existing (base year)
market shares of available consumer retail expenditure for Dundee City as a whole, and
individual centres included in our assessment, are held constant throughout the forecast period to
2017. This assumption relates to each of the three broad categories of goods: convenience
goods and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods. We adopt this assumption in order to facilitate
the operation of what is already a very complex ‘model’ (sequence of interconnecting
spreadsheets). Our quantitative floorspace need estimates for Dundee City as a whole and
individual centres therefore reflect this constant market shares approach. In practice, these top-
line results may in certain instances require careful interpretation in the light of planning guidance
and the conclusions of our assessment of qualitative need and town centre health checks. In
some cases this will involve introducing elements of flexibility into interpreting the quantum and
location of quantitative floorspace need. The key steps of our quantitative need are described
below.
Step 1 Catchment Area Definition
The catchment area should be defined with regard to the study objective. For the present study it
includes all of Dundee City and its shopping hinterland.
Step 2 Analyse Consumer Demand
This will comprise population estimates of retail expenditure per head for the present and
projected forecast year(s). This should include resident population, but also any in-flow retail
expenditure from people living outside the catchment area. The main types of inflow expenditure
come from long distance shoppers, commuters and tourists.
Step 3 Analyse Retail Supply
2
This step comprises an assessment of the retail turnover of the existing retail floorspace stock.
This will involve a household survey to estimate the actual retail turnover of centres and stores
and a comparison with benchmark turnover.
Step 4 Retail Demand Vs Retail Supply in the Base Year
At this stage, the adequacy of the existing retail provision within Dundee City in quantitative terms
is assessed. For example, if actual turnovers assessed in Step 3 exceed the benchmark
turnovers, it could be argued that the floorspace is over-trading and, therefore, there may be an
existing need for additional retail floorspace. Alternatively, if actual turnovers are less than
benchmark levels then the floorspace may be assumed to be under-trading, signalling a potential
over-supply of existing retail floorspace.
Step 5 Changes in Retail Demand and Retail Supply through to Forecast Year(s)
This step projects forward total available expenditure in the catchment area and the turnover of
existing and committed retail floorspace and the forecast retail turnover gives a measure of the
quantitative need for additional retail floorspace. If there is an expenditure surplus, this is
converted into potential floorspace by dividing by an appropriate sales density. Similarly, if there
is an expenditure deficit, a floorspace over supply may exist.
The Household Telephone Survey
Objectives of the Survey
The household telephone survey forms an important component of the present study, since it
provides robust and up-to-date information on the current pattern of shopping activity throughout
Dundee City and surrounding areas. As such, it forms the base upon which the retail need
estimates are built.
A major aim of the survey is to generate quantitative data on consumer retail expenditure flows
between areas or zones (where people live) and retail centres (where they spend their money).
This has been carried out for the following three types of shopping:
• Convenience goods
• Non-bulky comparison goods
3
• Bulky comparison goods
Definition of the Survey Area
We reached agreement with Dundee City Council on the outer boundary of the household survey
area at the beginning of the study. The survey area is shown in Figure 3.1 in Chapter 3. It is
relatively extensive, since it has been drawn to include the main shopping catchments of Dundee
City Centre.
Definition of the Expenditure Zones
For the purpose of sampling and analysis the wider survey area has been divided into 17 zones.
These zones are defined on the basis of wards and each zone comprises of a number of
contiguous wards. All of the zones were agreed with the Council. In broad terms they relate to
natural shopping activity areas on the ground and to the size and distribution of retail centres.
Figure 3.2 in Chapter 3 shows the locations and general configuration of the zones throughout
the survey area, while Appendix 3 defines the zones in terms of their constituent postcode
sectors.
Sampling
In consultation with the Council an overall target sample of 1, 500 completed interviews was
agreed, sufficient to provide a coverage of 88 interviews per zone.
Within each of the 17 zones, the interview sample was drawn randomly and in proportion to the
distribution of population. This ensures the results of the survey reflect for each zone the density
of population on the ground.
The Survey Questionnaire
The survey questionnaire was drafted in consultation with the Council and their agreement was
obtained prior to the commencement of interviewing. A copy of the questionnaire used for the
household telephone survey is reproduced in Appendix 4.
Implementation, Analysis and Results
4
Fieldwork for the household survey was carried out during February and March, 2006. In so far as
we use the survey results to inform our assessment of retail need within Dundee City, the key
data which the survey generates is the percentage market share (in terms of expenditure) of the
town and other centres within each of the 17 zones. This is analysed separately for convenience
goods and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping. Using this quantitative information,
it is possible to build-up a picture of existing shopper behaviour within the City and the survey
area as a whole. In particular, the data allows the existing catchment areas and retail turnovers
for Dundee City Centre to be determined, while it also forms the foundation for the retail
floorspace need estimates, which are presented in full in Chapter 5.
Principal Data Sources
The quantitative retail need assessment which we present in Chapter 5 utilises five major sources
of data. Each is new to this study. The data sources are as follows:
• Data on shopping trips patterns and consumer retail expenditure flows
Source: A bespoke household telephone survey was undertaken, which has
been described at paragraphs 5.12 to 5.20 above.
• Data on population and population projections
Source: Existing and projected populations have been sourced from EBS for
each zone.
• Data on consumer retail expenditure per head
Source: Bespoke data on convenience goods and non-bulky and bulky
comparison goods expenditure per head for 2004 has been obtained
from EBS for the population living within each zone. Full information is
set out in Appendix 5.
5
• Data on existing retail floorspace
Source: Dundee City Council has carried out a comprehensive survey of all
retail floorspace in the City, correct as at February 2006.
Details of existing retail floorspace by centre and main goods category
are set out in Appendix 6.
• Data on retail commitments / proposals
Source: Dundee City Council has prepared a schedule of retail commitments
within the City for use in the study. These are set out in Appendix 7.
Interpretation and Definitions
In addition to the principal sources of data, there are a number of further definitions which we
have adopted throughout the quantitative need assessment. Although many are referred to again
in Chapter 5, we hope that by grouping them together below this will assist the reader in
understanding the technical analysis which follows.
Study Centres
The City Council has requested that we include the following centres within the study:
• Dundee City Centre
• Perth Road District Centre
• Lochee District Centre
• Hilltown District Centre
• Albert Street District Centre
• Broughty Ferry District Centre
Composition of Main Retail Goods Categories
We adopt the definitions used by EBS, which relate to the retail expenditure data. These are set
out in full in Appendix 7.
6
Base Year
We adopt a base year of 2006. This is when the household telephone survey was undertaken,
and therefore the year in which we have retail centre turnover estimates.
Forecast Year(s)
The City Council has agreed to 2011 and 2017.
Price Base
All monetary figures in this report are given in constant 2004 prices, which is the price base of
the consumer retail expenditure per head data obtained from EBS.
Future Growth in Consumer Retail Expenditure Per Head
Future spending levels have an important bearing on the need for additional retail floorspace. The
assumptions used are therefore critical to the validity of the overall quantitative need assessment
and it is vital that the most up to date, realistic and robust sources are used.
In this study, we adopt the latest 2004-based expenditure forecasts published by EBS in March
2006. These are set out in full at Appendix 9 and incorporate the move by the ONS in 2003 to an
annual chain linking approach to producing constant price economic aggregates.
EBS’s expenditure forecasts are estimates of future spending based on an economic model of
disaggregated consumer spending. They differ from expenditure projections published by EBS
(and also MapInfo) that are estimates of future spending based on the extrapolation of past
trends. EBS advise that when carrying out longer term retail need assessments, the use of
forecasts is preferred to projections. EBS state that:
• “Projections of comparison spend per head based on past-trends are currently
considerably higher than forecasts based on econometric models. This is
because most economic forecasters and commentators believe that, after a
number of years of very strong growth, we have reached the top of the cycle for
consumer and retail spending. This is reflected in very low household savings
7
rates and high levels of household sector debt. Measuring trend growth rates
from a point at the top of the cycle pushes up the projections. On the other hand,
economists and forecasters believe this means that spending growth in the future
is likely to be weaker as the economy and households’ finances are rebalanced.
We consider that the economic forecasts incorporate this important information in
a way that projections cannot and therefore the economic forecasts are to be
preferred over the projections for planning for future demand growth.” Source: Dr
Neil Blake, Director – Economics and Forecasting, EBS.
Following the advice of EBS, we therefore adopt their latest expenditure forecasts which are set
out in Table 1 below.
Table 1: Expenditure Per Head Growth Forecasts
Time Period Goods Category
2004-2006 2004-2011 2004-2017
Convenience Goods 0.2% pa 0.4% 0.6%
Non-bulky Comparison Goods 2.8% pa 3.6% 3.3%
Bulky Comparison Goods 4.8% pa 4.3% 3.7%
In-Flow Expenditure
We have estimated the volume of consumer retail expenditure flowing into the survey area by
reference to our in-house CACI Retail Footprint Catchment Area Model and comparable studies
which we have carried our elsewhere. We assume that 10% of the non-bulky and bulky
comparison goods turnover of Dundee City Centre is drawn from residents, workers, visitors and
tourists living outside our survey area. We further assume that all of the convenience goods and
comparison goods turnover of the remaining centres in Dundee City is derived from within the
survey area.
Special Forms of Trading and E-tailing
It is normal practice in the preparation of quantitative retail need studies to make deductions from
the consumer retail expenditure per person figures adopted to allow for expenditure by ‘special
forms of trading’ (SFT). This is retail expenditure that does not take place in shops, such as that
via mail order houses, door to door salesmen and stalls and markets. It also includes spending
8
using digital TV and over the internet. EBS estimate that in 2002, expenditure by SFT nationally
accounted for 2.0% of consumer retail expenditure on convenience goods and 5.8% on
comparison goods, whilst by 2004 the proportions had changed to 2.5% and 5.7% for
convenience and comparison goods respectively1.
Recent evidence suggests that E-tailing sales are increasing as a proportion of total retail
expenditure, although perhaps not at the rate many commentators forecast at the height of the
dot.com boom a few years ago. Much of the initial growth in E-tailing has been achieved through
the cannibalisation of existing retail expenditure on traditional catalogue-based mail order.
However, this cannot continue, so any further gains on E-tailing will directly feed through into an
increase in retail sales through SFT. Accordingly, we feel it is prudent to take this into account in
our quantitative need assessment.
In preparing this study, we have examined a range of published material on the subject of E-
tailing. However, in our view, the most comprehensive and forward-looking research paper
available on the topic has been prepared by EBS2 and it is reproduced in full in Appendix 10.
EBS note that after a slow start, the UK now appears to be in the take-off phase of the spread of
E-tailing although growth will eventually plateau. The company publish separate projections of the
future market share for SFT (including E-tailing) through to 2014 for convenience and comparison
goods. EBs, in fact, present, two alternative projections for each goods category-a main case
scenario and a lower case scenario. In this study, we have taken a conservative approach and
used EBS’s lower case scenario, which takes into account the lower than expected growth in
actual E-tailing spend in 2005. We therefore assume that market shares for SFT will increase as
set out in Table 2 overleaf.
1 Source: Experian Business Strategies, Retail Planner Briefing Note 2.3D, Estimates and Projections of the Share E-tailing in UK Retail Spending, December 2005. 2 Source: Experian Business Strategies, Retail Planner Briefing Note 2.3D Estimates and Projections of the Share E-tailing in UK Retail Spending, December 2005.
9
Table 2 Special Forms of Trading Market Share Assumptions
Brechin North Esk 03C04Brechin South Esk 03C09Brechin West 03C03Montrose Central 03C11Montrose Ferryden 03C10Montrose Hillside 03C13Montrose West 03C12
10
Alyth and Old Rattray 25C04Blairgowrie 25C07Coupar Angus and Meigle 25C05Kirriemuir East 03C02Kirriemuir West 03C01Rattray and Glenshee 25C03Rosemount 25C06Westfield and Dean 03C05Arbirlot and Hospitalfield 03C23Arbroath North 03C25Brothock 03C26Cliffburn 03C29Harbour 03C28
11 Hayshead and Lunan 03C27Forfar Central 03C07Forfar East 03C08Forfar South 03C14Forfar West 03C06Keptie 03C24Letham and Friockheim 03C15
12
Carnoustie Central 03C21Carnoustie East 03C22Carnoustie West 03C20Monifieth West 03C18Monifieth Central 03C19Sidlaw East and Ashludie 03C17
13 Sidlaw West 03C16East Carse 25C18
14
Barnhill and West Carse 25C20Central Carse 25C19Dunsinnan 25C17Kinclaven and Clunie 25C08Pictstonhill 25C21Scone 25C16
15
Auchtermuchty and Ladybank 16C63Cupar North 16C66Cupar South 16C65Newburgh and Tay Coast 16C67Newport-on-Tay and Wormit 16C68
16
Crail, Cameron and Kemback 16C75St Andrews Central 16C72St Andrews South 16C73Leuchars, Balmullo and Guardbridge 16C70Tayport and Motray 16C69St Andrews South East 16C74Strathkinness and St Andrews West 16C71
17
Anstruther & East Neuk Landward 16C76Auchmuty & Woodside West 16C53Balgeddie & Collydean 16C60Cadham, Pitcoudie & Balfarg 16C61Caskieberran & Rimbleton 16C56Elie, St Monans & Pittenweem 16C77Falkland, Freuchie & Strathmiglo 16C62Kennoway 16C50Kettle, Springfield and Ceres 16C64Largo 16C78Leslie & Whinnyknowe 16C59Leven East 16C48Leven West & Kirkland 16C49Markinch & Woodside East 16C52Methil 16C47Methilhill 16C46Newcastle & Tanshall 16C57Pitteuchar & Finglassie North 16C54South Parks & Macedonia 16C58Windygates, Star & Balgonie 16C51
Appendix 4
Job No: GW/06/289
AREA
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL BEACON RESEARCH
Suite 3, The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang. Lancs. PR3 1YB Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336
DUNDEE CITY COUNCIL HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ON BEHALF OF COLLIERS CRE (February 2006)
Name: Address: Postcode: ‘ C1 Age: 16-24 1 Supervisor/Manager/Self Employed 25-34 2 Size of company 35-44 3 No. of employees 45-54 4 55-64 5 If Retired 65 + 6 Company pension–ask previous occupation State pension only – code 5 below C2 Sex: Male 1 Female 2 If Unemployed Less than 2 months – ask about previous C3 Do you have the use of a car for occupation shopping? Over 2 months – code 6 below Yes 1 Now Assess Social Grade No 2 AB 1 C1 2 C4 What is the occupation of the chief C2 3 wage earner in your household? D 4 E1 (Retired) 5 Full/Part time employed 1 E2 (Unemployed) 6 Retired 2 Refused 7 Unemployed 3 C5 Day / Time of interview Occupation Weekday 1 Morning 1 Rank/Status Weekend 2 Afternoon 2 Evening 3 No. of Employees Qualifications Interviewer Name: _________________________ Date:__________________ Interviewer Signature: ______________________________________________
Job No: GW/06/289
Good morning / afternoon, my name is ................................................................ We are doing some research on behalf of Dundee City Council to improve shopping facilities in this area and I’d like to ask you a few questions. Are you / May I speak to the person responsible for the majority of your household shopping? YES 1 NO 2 - CLOSE INTERVIEW As we need to speak to people across a number of areas, could you please tell me your full postcode? WRITE IN POST CODE HERE ______________________ Refer to quota and check that respondent is eligible for interview - if not, thank and close.
Job No: GW/06/289
Q1a Can I ask you first of all, excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet at which Town, Centre or Retail Park do you do most of your shopping for non-food goods such as Clothing & Footwear, books, gifts and jewellery?
Q1b And how often do you visit......................Centre or Retail Park for this type of
non-food shopping? Q1c And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what percentage or
proportion of your total expenditure on non-food goods such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in .......................Town, Centre or Retail Park?
Q2a Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what is your second
most important Town, Centre or Retail Park for non-food shopping such as Clothing & Footwear, Books, gifts and Jewellery? (SINGLE CODE)
Q2b And how often do you visit.....................Centre or Retail Park for this type of
non-food shopping? Q2c And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what percentage or
proportion of your total expenditure on non-food goods such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in .......................Centre or Retail Park?
RECORD ANSWERS BELOW & OPPOSITE - CHECK PERCENTAGES ADD TO 100% AT Q1c/2c A CENTRE Q1 Q2
Dundee - City Centre 1 1 Dundee – Hilltown District centre 2 2 Dundee – Albert St District centre 3 3 Dundee – Perth Rd District centre 4 4 Dundee – Lochee District centre 5 5 Dundee – Broughty Ferry District centre 6 6 Dundee – Kingsway East Retail Park 7 7 Dundee – Kingsway West Retail Park 8 8 Dundee – Gallagher Retail Park 9 9 Dundee – City Quay Factory Outlet 10 10 Aberdeen 11 11 Alloa 12 12 Arbroath 13 13 Auchterarder 14 14 Blairgowrie 15 15 Braehead Shopping Centre 16 16 Brechin 17 17 Crieffe 18 18 Dunfermline 19 19 Edinburgh – City Centre 20 20 Edinburgh – The Gyle Shopping Centre 21 21 Forfar 22 22
No Particular Centre / Varies 31 31 None / Don’t buy these goods / Internet / Mail Order only 32 32 No second centre 33 DK / Can’t remember 34 34 B FREQUENCY OF VISIT More than once a week 1 1 Once a week 2 2 2-3 times a month 3 3 Once a month 4 4 Once every 2-3 months 5 5 Once every 4-6 months 6 6 Less often 7 7 DK / Can’t remember / Varies 8 8 C % In Location (Write In) % %
Q3a You said that ............ is the Centre/Retail Park where you do most of your
clothing & footwear shopping? What is your main reason for choosing that Centre?
Close to home/convenient 1 Good/Cheap Public Transport 7 Close to work 2 Ease of parking 8 Good choice of shops/range of good stores 3 Free/cheap parking 9 Good range of major stores 4 Good quality goods/products 10 Pedestrianised streets/attractive environment
5 Part of joint trip to other facility/centre 11
Good prices/Good value for money 6 Other (Write In)
Job No: GW/06/289
Q3b How do you normally travel to / from this Centre / Retail Park? (If more than one mode of transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)
Car (Driver) 1 Walk 6 Car (Passenger) 2 Cycle 7 Bus 3 Motor Cycle 8 Train 4 Taxi 9
Park & Ride 5 Other 10 Q3c Where does your journey usually start from?
Home 1 (Go to Q3d) Work 2 (Go to Q4) Other (write in) (Go to Q4)
Q3d On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Centre / Retail Park
from home? 5 minutes or less 1 21 – 25 minutes 5 6 – 10 minutes 2 26 – 30 minutes 6 11 – 15 minutes 3 Over 30 minutes 7 16 – 20 minutes 4 Q4 At which Town, Centre or Retail Park do you normally undertake most of your
Christmas or special occasion shopping? (Write in)
Job No: GW/06/289
Q5a Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet at which Centre or Retail Park do you do most of your shopping for bulky non-food goods such as DIY, large electrical goods, furniture and carpets (SINGLE CODE)
Q5b And how often do you visit ……….Centre / Retail Park for your main bulky
non-food goods shopping? Q5c And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what percentage or
proportion of your total expenditure on bulky non-food goods shopping would you say that you do in .......................Centre / Retail Park?
Q6a Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet which is your second
most important Centre / Retail Park for bulky non-food goods shopping? (SINGLE CODE)
Q6b And how often do you visit ……….Centre / Retail Park for your main bulky
non-food goods shopping? Q6c And Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what percentage or
proportion of your total expenditure on bulky non-food goods shopping would you say that you do in .......................Centre / Retail Park?
RECORD ANSWERS BELOW & OPPOSITE - CHECK PERCENTAGES ADD TO 100% AT Q5c/6c A CENTRE Q5 Q6
Dundee - City Centre 1 1 Dundee – Hilltown District centre 2 2 Dundee – Albert St District centre 3 3 Dundee – Perth Rd District centre 4 4 Dundee – Lochee District centre 5 5 Dundee – Broughty Ferry District centre 6 6 Dundee – Kingsway East Retail Park 7 7 Dundee – Kingsway West Retail Park 8 8 Dundee – Gallagher Retail Park 9 9 Dundee – City Quay Factory Outlet 10 10 Dundee – B & Q, Kings Cross Rd 11 11 Aberdeen 12 12 Alloa 13 13 Arbroath 14 14 Auchterarder 15 15 Blairgowrie 16 16 Braehead Shopping Centre 17 17 Brechin 18 18 Crieffe 19 19 Dunfermline 20 20 Edinburgh – City Centre 21 21 Edinburgh – The Gyle Shopping Centre 22 22 Forfar 23 23
No Particular Centre / Varies 32 32 None / Don’t buy these goods / Internet / Mail Order only 33 33 No second centre 34 DK / Can’t remember 35 35 B FREQUENCY OF VISIT More than once a week 1 1 Once a week 2 2 2-3 times a month 3 3 Once a month 4 4 Once every 2-3 months 5 5 Once every 4-6 months 6 6 Less often 7 7 DK / Can’t remember / Varies 8 8 C % In Location (Write In)
% %
Q7a You said that ............ is the Centre/Retail Park where you do most of your
bulky non-food goods shopping? What is your main reason for choosing that Centre?
Close to home/convenient 1 Good/Cheap Public Transport 7 Close to work 2 Ease of parking 8 Good choice of shops/range of goods stores 3 Free / cheap parking 9 Good range of major stores 4 Good quality goods/products 10 Pedesrtrianised streets / attractive environment
5 Part of joint trip to other facility / centre
11
Good prices/Good value for money 6 Other (Write In)
Q7b How do you normally travel to / from this Centre / Retail Park? (If more than
one mode of transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)
Car (Driver) 1 Walk 6 Car (Passenger) 2 Cycle 7 Bus 3 Motor Cycle 8 Train 4 Taxi 9
Park & Ride 5 Other 10
Job No: GW/06/289
Q7c Where does your journey usually start from?
Home 1 (Go to Q7d) Work 2 (Go to Q8a) Other (write in) (Go to Q8a)
Q7d On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Centre / Retail Park from home? 5 minutes or less 1 21 – 25 minutes 5 6 – 10 minutes 2 26 – 30 minutes 6 11 – 15 minutes 3 Over 30 minutes 7 16 – 20 minutes 4
Job No: GW/06/289
Q8a At which store and centre do you usually do most or all of your main food and
grocery shopping? (Store and Centre needed - Single code) Q8b And when during the week, would you normally shop at your main food
store? Q9a And at which Store and Centre do you usually do your remaining top-up food
and grocery shopping? (Store and Centre needed) RECORD ANSWERS BELOW AND OPPOSITE Q8a
Main Store / Centre
Q9a Second Store / Centre
A Dundee Kingsway East Retail Park – Asda, Kingsway East East 1 1 Dundee – Asda, Gilburn Road 2 2 Dundee – Iceland, Campfield Square 3 3 Dundee – Iceland, Pitkerro Road 4 4 Dundee – Kwiksave, Camperdown Road 5 5 Dundee Hilltown District centre – Lidl, Strathmartine Road 6 6 Dundee – Lidl, Macalpine Road 7 7 Dundee City Centre – Lidl, South Ward Road 8 8 Dundee City Centre – M & S, Murraygate 9 9 Dundee – Perth Rd District centre - Nisa Today, Perth Rd 10 10 Dundee – Safeway,, Arbroath Road 11 11 Dundee – Sainsbury, Baldovie Road 12 12 Dundee – Somerfield, Pitkerro Road 13 13 Dundee – Somerfield, Campfield Square 14 14 Dundee Broughty Ferry District centre– Somerfield, Brook St 15 15 Dundee Albert St District centre– Somerfield, Albert Street 16 16 Dundee – Tesco, South Road 17 17 Dundee – Tesco, Riverside Drive 18 18 Dundee Lochee District centre – Tesco, Methven Street 19 19 Dundee Kingsway East Retail Park –Tesco Extra, Kingsway East 20 20 Dundee City Centre – Tesco Metro, Murraygate 21 21 Aberdeen (Any) 22 22 Alloa (Any) 23 23 Arbroath (Any) 24 24 Auchterarder (Any) 25 25 Blairgowrie (Any) 26 26
Varies / No particular centre 43 43 No second Centre 44
B WHEN SHOP Weekdays (Mon- Fri) Daytime 1 Weekdays (Mon – Fri) Evening 2 Saturday 3 Sunday 4 Varies / No particular time 5
Q10a On average, how much do you and your household spend on food and
groceries each week in your main store? Q10b And how much on average do you spend on food and groceries each week in
your second most important food store?
RECORD BELOW £ p (a) ‘Main’ store weekly total expenditure (b) ‘Second’ store weekly food expenditure (c) Total weekly food expenditure
[NOTE: (c) is calculated as (a + b)]
Job No: GW/06/289
Q11a You said that................ is your main store for food/grocery shopping. How often do you visit that store for food and grocery shopping?
Three times a week or more often 1 Twice a week 2 Once a week 3 Once a fortnight 4 Once a month 5 Once every two months 6 Less often 7
Q11b What is the main reason why you and your household choose to shop at the store where you do your main food / grocery shopping? (SINGLE CODE)
Close to home / convenient 1 Wide choice of goods / products 6
Close to work 2 Close to other shops 7 Ease of parking 3 Good prices/value for money 8
Free / cheap parking 4 Good quality goods / products 9 Good / cheap public transport 5
Other (WRITE IN) ___________________________________________10 Q11c How do you normally travel to / from this store? (If more than one mode of
transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)
Car (Driver) 1 Walk 6 Car (Passenger) 2 Cycle 7 Bus 3 Motor Cycle 8 Train 4 Taxi 9
Park & Ride 5 Other 10 Q11d Where does your journey usually start from?
Home 1 (Go to Q11e) Work 2 (Go to Q12a) Other (write in) (Go to Q12a)
Q11e On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Store from home? 5 minutes or less 1 21 – 25 minutes 5 6 – 10 minutes 2 26 – 30 minutes 6 11 – 15 minutes 3 Over 30 minutes 7 16 – 20 minutes 4 Q12a When you do your main food and grocery shopping at……………………….do
you or your household usually visit any other shops/service outlets in the same area as part of that trip?
Yes 1 (Ask Q12b – Q12d) No 2 (Close)
Job No: GW/06/289
Q12b Which town/centre is this? (Write In) Q12c And do you drive to the other shops/service outlets, or walk or use
another form of transport? Drive 1 Taxi 4 Walk 2 Other Form of Transport 5 Bus 3 Q12d And what other shops/services do you normally visit (MULTI-CODE) Financial outlets (eg Banks, Building Societies) 1 Professional Services (eg Solicitors, Accountants) 2 Post Office 3 Cafe/Restaurant/Pub/Take-Away 4 Specialist food shops (eg Baker, Greengrocer, Butcher) 5 Chemist 6 Newsagents/Confectioners/Tobacconists 7 Fashion Shops (eg for clothing, footwear etc) 8 Charity Shops 9 Department/Variety Store 10 Other type of shop (WRITE IN) CLOSE INTERVIEW - COMPLETE CLASSIFICATION
*The gross floorspace figure for M&S refers just to the convenience goods floorspace within the store. The total size of the store is 6,061 sq m gross.
(3) Source: The UK Retail Rankings, 2005 (Mintel), Verdict on Grocery Retailers, 2005 and Colliers CRE estimates.
(1) Source: IGD Food Stores database and Experian Goad.
(1) In Centre - City Centre and District Centres
Gross Floorspace(sq m) (1)
Net Floorspace(sq m) (2)
Benchmark SalesDensity
(£ / sq m) (3)
Benchmark AnnualTurnover
(£ m)
A B C D = B x C
Dundee City Centre 87,680 56,992 5,500 313.5Albert Street 2,823 1,835 2,750 5.0Broughty Ferry 7,506 4,879 2,750 13.4Hilltown 1,328 863 2,750 2.4Lochee 7,667 4,984 2,750 13.7Perth Road 1,864 1,212 2,750 3.3
Total 108,868 70,764 - 351.3
Notes:
(2) Assuming a net gross ratio of 65:100 for normal "high street" units.(3) Source: Colliers CRE estimates based, in part, on The UK Retail Rankings, 2005 (Mintel) and Verdict
Local Centres / Other Shops 756 491 2,500 1.2Corner Shops 9,785 6,360 2,500 15.9
Total 10,541 6,852 - 17.1
Notes:
(2) Assuming a net gross ratio of 65:100 for normal "high street" units.(3) Source: Colliers CRE estimates based, in part, on The UK Retail Rankings, 2005 (Mintel) and Verdict
(1) Source: Dundee City Council.(2) Assuming a net gross ratio of 90:100.
Store / Retail Park
(3) Out of Centre Solus Stores
Gross Floorspace(sq m) (1)
Net Floorspace(sq m) (2)
Benchmark SalesDensity
(£ / sq m) (3)
Benchmark AnnualTurnover
(£ m)
A B C D = B x C
OtherPoundstretcher, Lochee Road 1,127 1,014 2,500 2.5Vacant ( Was What Everyone Wants), Lochee Road 0 0 - -
Total 1,127 1,014 2,500 2.5
Notes: (1) Source: Dundee City Council.(2) Assuming a net gross ratio of 90:100.(3) Source: The UK Retail Rankings, 2005 (Mintel), Verdict and Colliers CRE estimates.
Notes: (1) Source: IGD Food Stores database and Experian Goad.
(1) In Centre
Gross Floorspace(sq m) (1)
Net Floorspace(sq m) (2)
Benchmark SalesDensity
(£ / sq m) (3)
Benchmark AnnualTurnover
(£ m)
A B C D = B x C
Dundee City Centre 8,064 5,242 4,000 21.0Albert Street 0 0 - -Broughty Ferry 2,200 1,430 2,500 3.6Hilltown 0 0 - -Lochee 0 0 - -Perth Road 0 0 - -
Total 10,264 6,672 - 24.5
Notes:
(2) Assuming a net gross ratio of 65:100 for normal "high street" units.(3) Source: Colliers CRE estimates based, in part, on The UK Retail Rankings, 2005 (Mintel) and Verdict
Local Centres / Other Shops 0 0 - -Corner Shops 0 0 - -
Total 0 0 - -
Notes:
(2) Assuming a net gross ratio of 65:100 for normal "high street" units.(3) Source: Colliers CRE estimates based, in part, on The UK Retail Rankings, 2005 (Mintel) and Verdict
Notes: (1) Source: Dundee City Council.(2) Assuming a net gross ratio of 90:100 for retail warehouse and factory outlet units.(3) Source: The UK Retail Rankings, 2005 (Mintel), Verdict and Colliers CRE estimates.
OtherB&Q Warehouse, King's Cross 10,000 9,000 2,250 20.3IF Interior Favourites, South Road 1,386 1,247 2,000 2.5Princes Street Furniture Warehouse 255 230 1,750 0.4Sterling, South Road 3,660 3,294 1,750 5.8The Furniture Store, Guthrie Street 720 648 1,750 1.1Vacant (No Fascia), Main Street 0 0 - -Vacant (Comet), West Henderson's Wynd 0 0 - -Vacant (Fabric Rite), Old Glamis Road 0 0 - -Vacant (Homebase), Riverside Drive 0 0 - -
Total 16,021 14,419 2,084 30.0
Notes: (1) Source: Dundee City Council.(2) Assuming a net gross ratio of 90:100 for retail warehouse units.(3) Source: The UK Retail Rankings, 2004 (Mintel), Verdict and Colliers CRE estimates.
Appendix 7 Floorspace and Estimated Turnover of Retail Commitments within Dundee City (schedule correct as at February 2006)
Retail Floorspace Estimated Turnover at the Forecast Years
Location Developer/Operator
Sq M Gross
Sq M Net
Date of Consent/ Comments
Assumed 2006 (Base Year) Sales
Density (£psm) 2011
(£m) 2017 (£m)
Convenience Goods
Dura Street (Out Of Centre)
Lidl
1, 300 780
5/12/05 Site allocated in Local Plan.
4,300 3.5 3.6
Forfar Road (Out Of Centre)
Likely to be Morrisons
8,500 2,800 Local Plan allocation. Salespace restricted to 4,000 sq m. Assume 70% is convenience goods.
12,000 34.9 36.5
Non-Bulky Comparison Goods
Overgate Centre (City Centre)
Lend Lease 20,700 13,455 13/04/2006
6,000 90.2 103.1
Dock Street (Gallagher Retail Park / Out of Centre)
Gallagher Developments
1,394 1,255 14/02/2006 Mezzanine added in two units.
3,500 4.9 5.6
Retail Floorspace Estimated Turnover at the Forecast
Years2
Location Developer/Operator
Sq M Gross
Sq M Net
Date of Consent/ Comments
Assumed 2006 (Base Year) Sales
Density1 (£psm) 2011
(£m) 2017 (£m)
Non-Bulky Comparison Goods
Forfar Road (Out Of Centre)
Likely to be Morrisons
8,500 1,200 Local Plan allocation. Salespace restricted to 4,000 sq m. Assume 30% is non-bulky comparison goods.
5,000 6.2 6.5
Bulky Comparison Goods
The Stack Leisure Park, Lochee (Out Of Centre)
Land Team
4,600 4,140 27/02/2006 (Subject to S75)
2,750 12.7 14.5
Travel Dundee Bus Depot, Dock Street (Out Of Centre)
Not known 6,000 5,400 Local Plan allocation.
2,750 16.6 19.0
1 Colliers CRE estimates based on published sources. 2 Estimated by multiplying net floorspace by the assumed sales density. The base year (2006) sales densities are assumed to grow in real terms as follows: convenience goods: 0.75% per annum, non-bulky and bulky comparison goods by 2.25% per annum.
