Rohit Talwar - Airport 2025 Keynote - ACI Airport Exchange Conference Abu Dhabi - 30 November 2011

1. Airport 2025 Transforming the Passenger ExperienceACI Airport Exchange - Abu Dhabi - 30/11/11Rohit Talwar - CEO Fast [email protected] www.fastfuture.com

2. ContentsPresentation p3About Fast Futurep 92Background Notes p 103Image Sourcesp 360

3. MacroDrivers

4. The World in 2025

5. How do we get there from Here?Understand Research &Newthe Drivers Innovation BusinessModels

6. New Business Thinkinge.g. Ultra-Quick Construction

7. Growth is not GuaranteedThinking is Back in Fashion

8. Transformational Change? Its Only Just Begun

9. 10 Key Patterns of Change Shaping the Next DecadeEconomic turbulence, a shift in wealth from west to east and political uncertainty are shaping the landscapeNatural Society in ResourceDemographic Transition ChallengesDestinies Geo-political Generational Complexity Economic CrisisCrossroadsand Power ShiftRethinkingTechnologyTalent,and Science Education,Training Enterprise 3.0GlobalInternetExpansion Source: Designing your Future Key Trends, Challenges and Choices Fast Future

10. Aviation Outlook

11. Airport Expansion by 2020 China from ~150 to 244 India from ~100 to 140Today - US 3 Seats per head / China 0.3 / India 0.1Asia a third of all flyers (2013) and travel spend (2020)

12. 38% - Under 100 US Airports by 201539% - Airports only in Major Euro Cities

13. Low Cost Carriers64% - Half will Collapse49% - Massive Growth

14. Virtual Airlines

15. New Business Models / AirlinesEmergence of Virtual Airlines?

16. Industry ScenariosHighUncharted Paranoid Territory SurviveLowHigh Passenger Price SensitivityBack to theCrash andFuture BurnLow Business Model Innovation

17. Sustainable Green Terminals

18. Fast Build, Flexible andTemporary TerminalsNext - Sustainable Green Terminals?

19. Redistribution of Aviation Profit Pools

20. Embracing Open Innovation Airport Living Lab

21. FutureCustomers

22. Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years Demographics is Driving Economics 448 739 691 523134419984157 7291030 585 20102050

23. Life Redefined Lifespans are IncreasingUnder 50s have 90%chance of living to 100.Aubrey de Grey suggestswe could live to 500 or 1000What are the health,consumption and resourceimplications?What kind of opportunitieswill be created?

24. Tomorrows Traveler -Demographics Over 60s in developedeconomies to rise from 22-33% from 2009 and 2050. In developing world, from 9 to20% Global retirement market2010-2020 could grow from$28 - $46 Tn Global middle class could risefrom 430M to 1.2 Bn (2000 2030)Source: United Nations Report Warns of Dire Effects of Under population, Fertility Decline, by Susan Yoshihara, PhD, March 5th 2010, LifeNews http://www.lifenews.com/int1479.html http://www.financial-planning.com/news/allianz-retirement-pensions-growth-2668604-1.html

25. Tomorrows Traveler Spending Patterns By 2020, Asian consumerscould account for over 40%of global middle classconsumption By 2030 Asian consumerspending could hit $32trillion By 2014 female wealthcould reach $18 trillion Females could control 70%of global consumerspending

26. Traveller Mindsets Too Busy To Care Complex Lives, PressurisedFinances Craving Simplicity Wealthy and Hard to Please

27. Buying Behaviour Mobile Low loyalty Multiple searches andsite visits Word of mouth critical Value conscious price, offers, rewards Shorter trips Shorter notice71% - Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented /diverse and harder to segment into clear customer groupings

28. Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented and diverseand harder to segment into clearly definable customer groupings604 Respondents

29. I will book the bulk of my travel online in 2015 74% - Will use 64% Social Networks to Research and Find Deals31% 3%2%Very likely LikelyUnlikely Very unlikely

30. Technology Horizons

31. Tomorrows Traveler Technology Number of mobile subscriberscould rise from 4Bn to 5Bn2009-2015 Mobile data traffic to rise 300-fold by 2015 (Nokia). By 2020 the range and natureof interaction technologies /customer touch points willexpand dramatically. Go nowhere gamers Personal genetic profiles

32. TMT Convergence and ImmersionTelephony Connectivity Voice Cellular Messaging Up to 14 bands SIM card WLAN/BT Phonebook GPS Ring Tones NFC Security FMData/ MultimediaEnterprise Camera 8-16M Camcorder 100Mbps 24M Color Display Email Memory (160GB) IMS Multiformat A/V Browsing HD Video/TV out VPN Games PIM Ecommerce Software (50-100M Tps) Protocols DRM Payments Middleware Applications User Interface Minimize fragmentation

33. Mobile Technology at the AirportBoarding MobileInteractiveCoupons ads SocialMobile networkingpaymentsSecurity AutomatedNotification Self-serviceCheck-in& guidance Baggage dropRoaming 2011 Amadeus IT Group SA AgentAirport entrance PrivateTransportation Public transportation

34. TINA The Intelligent Airport

35. Cloud Computing

36. Apps What I Want, When I WantSource: Forrester

37. Next Generation Smart Phones Concierge / ScheduleManagement Check in Notifications / Directions Route Management User Generated Content Wallet Location Based Offers Dynamic Rerouting Personal Networking

38. Apps / Personalised Advertising

39. Holographic Displays

40. Augmented Reality / Heads Up

41. Augmented Reality atCopenhagen Airport

42. Haptics / Holograms / Interactive Surfaces

43. Wearable Displays

44. Ambient Intelligence

45. Real Time / Predictive Analytics

46. 3D Printing True Personalization

47. Rethinking the Airport Experience

48. Live the Customer Journeys and Experiences Stimulus / Search / Booking Transport to and from theAirport Check in to Flight Departure Flight Arrival to Airport Exit Flight Transfer - Arrival toDeparture Airport Experience In Flight Experience Relationship Management

49. Mapping Customer Journeys & ExperiencesSub Traffic Off airport flight Arrival at airport by Parking Transport fromprocess information information car/train parking to PlazaKPI Traffic jams Accessibility Price/Quality LT Ease of wayfindingScore73%91% / 90% 41%90%Sub Entering Plaza Services; Leaving Plaza Departure from Retrieving car &process rental, parkingairport by bus/train Leaving airportKPI Clarity Clarity AccessibilityScore77% 77%90% / 80%

50. Airport Arrival

51. Extended Airport?

52. Check In

53. Next Gen Qantas Check-In

54. Security

55. Are Biometrics the Answer?

56. Flight Departure

57. Minimising Journey Times and Aircraft Turnaround

58. Arrivals Localizing the Experience?

59. Enhancing the Airport Experience Service, Food, Leisure and Retail

60. Virtual Assistants

61. Catering, Lounge and ServiceExperiences

62. Extending the Experience

63. The Slide@T3Changi Airport - Singapore

64. Funding The Future From Cabin to Cash Register

65. Leveraging Customer Insight - Multiple Revenue Streams

66. Leveraging Customer Insight

67. Best Price Guarantees

68. Partner Tie-insPullman Bangkok King Power Hotel

69. In-flight Duty FreeKorean Air - Shop Onboard

70. Passenger Centric, Context Relatede.g. The Virgin Red StoreSingle swipe open tab

71. In Terminal / In-Flight TravelAgency

72. Booking/Boarding Pass Ads / Offers

73. Daily Social Media Offers e.g. Twitter

74. Rethinking Airport Retail

75. Online Brands Appearing Offline

76. Virtual Grocery Shopping Tesco South Korea

77. New Retail Concepts

78. Auctions - The $5,937 Laptop

79. Air Sahara/Jetlite

80. Outsourcing In-flight Duty Free e.g. BA / Tourvest

81. So How Can we Respond?

82. So How Can we Respond?

83. The Journey to 2025 Continuous research Define change roadmaps passenger journeys andexperiences, operationsand technology Experiment Develop uncertaintytolerant management

84. Aviation Next what does thetimeline of developments looklike for the sector in your region?

85. Deep Dive on Key Trends / Issues

86. Be Magnetic

87. Make Time and Space for Changehttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-facts-history_big.jpg

88. Conclusions Huge untapped potential Technology is a key enabler Encourage innovation andcuriosity Experiment with businessmodels Work with and fortomorrows passenger

89. Thank YouRohit TalwarCEOFast [email protected] +44 (0)20 8830 0766Mob +44 (0)7973 405145Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfutureLinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwarwww.fastfuture.comwww.convention-2020.comBlog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.comSignup for our newsletters / Download past editions at www.fastfuture.comWatch a short video of Rohit at http://www.travelmole.tv/watch_vdo.php?id=14300Download the Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation Report athttp://www.amadeus.com/hotelit/beyond-segmentation.html

90. About Fast Future92

91. Fast Future Aviation and Travel Industry Services Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for executivemanagement and boards of airlines, airports, hotels, venues,CVBs and associations Future Insights - Customised research on emerging trends,future scenarios, technologies and new markets Immersion - Deep dives on future trends, marketdevelopments, emerging issues and technology advances Strategy - Development of strategies and business plans Innovation - Creation of business models and innovation plans Engagement - Consultancy and workshop facilitation

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93. Hotels 2020 Objectives Identify key drivers of changefor the globally branded hotelsector over the next decade Examine the implications for: Hotel strategy Brand portfolio Business models Customer targeting Innovation

94. Convention 2020 Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare forthe decade ahead - Industry-wide sponsors Multiple outputs Nov 2009 December 2011 Current studies on future strategies for venues and destinations

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96. Rohit Talwar Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research. Award winning speaker on future insights and strategicinnovation addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on5 continents Author of Designing Your Future Profiled by UKs Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10Global Future Thinkers Led futures research, scenario planning and strategicconsultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,environment, food and government sectors Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC DeBeers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associationsand governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore. To receive Fast Futures newsletters please [email protected]

97. Designing Your Future Key Trends, Challenges and Choices 50 key trends 100 emerging trends 10 major patterns of change Key challenges and choices forleaders Strategic decision making framework Scenarios for 2012 Key futures tools and techniques Published August 2008 Price 49.95 / 54.95/ $69.95 Email invoice request [email protected]

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100. Example Clients

101. BackgroundNotes

102. MacroDrivers

103. We need to Prepare for Alternative Scenarios 8-10% Suspicious Love is in Minds the AirGDPGrowthDancing inIndia 6-7% the DarkandChinaRoad toNowhere 1-2% Recession 0%1-2% 2-3% GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

104. Derivatives Market Value vs. Global GDP 800 760700 700605 600US$ Trillion 500 400 300 200 100 69.8 14.24.330 Richard 2010 estBank of World GDP US GDPChinese GDP Duncan (June International2008) Settlements June 2009 estSource: BIS, 2009 BIS - http://www.roubini.com/financemarkets-monitor/258502/___swap_tango________a_derivative_regulation_dance__part_12010 - http://www.newsmax.com/deBorchgrave/BankforInternationalSettlements-BIS-derivatives-MerrillLynch/2010/05/11/id/358672

105. Public debt in 2020 (% of GDP)Source: Deutsche Bank Research Public debt in 2020 March 2010http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000255134.pdf

106. Economic Power ShiftsThe Top 20 in 2025?GDP US$ Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC the World in 2050 March 2008 edition

107. Reorientation of Global Markets Some 647 million air travelers more than a quarter of the 2.2 billion passengerswho flew worldwide took to the skies in Asia in 2009, compared to the 638 millionair travelers in North America, hitherto the traditional leader in global aviation. By 2013, an additional 217 million travelers are expected to fly within Asia to push theregions aviation market share to about one-third of the world market. In the U.S. there are three aircraft seats per year for each of the 300 million peoplewho live here. Chinas population of 1.3 billion is served by only 0.3 seats per person and Indias 1.1billion population has only 0.1 seats available per person. When Asians reach the stage of traveling as frequently as people in the U.S., thatalone will triple the size of todays global aviation industry.Source: Bay Area Travel Writers Travel Trends: Asia Eclipses America in Aviation Markets by Lakshman Ratnapala, March 2010http://www.batw.org/news/industry-news/travel-trends_mar-2010/

108. Current Spending Patterns Reinforcing the appeal of duty freeTop Asia-PacificAmount US$ duty free spenderssavings, 43 percent of all respondentssaid they shopped at a duty free store Korea 358during their last overseas trip. China 333 Travelers from Japan (73 percent), Hong Kong 224Korea (71 percent) and China (49percent) were the regions mostMalaysia195frequent duty free shoppers whileIndia 180Korean and Chinese travelers also Thailand178made it to the biggest spender list. Japan 164 Australia 153 Singapore 153 New Zealand 134 Taiwan125 Regional Average212Source: China Travel Trends, September 2009 http://www.chinatraveltrends.com/2009/09/16/chinese-travellers-top-list-of-duty-free-spenders-in-asia-pacific/

109. Future Regions of Multiple StressSource: Ministry of Defence Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2040, February 2010http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D70F2CC7-5673-43AE-BA73-1F887801266C/0/20100202GST_4_Global_Strategic_Trends_Out_to_2040UDCDCStrat_Trends_4.pdf

110. Source: Tourism Futures http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic

111. Source: Tourism Futures http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic

112. Source: Ministry of Defence Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2040, February 2010http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D70F2CC7-5673-43AE-BA73-1F887801266C/0/20100202GST_4_Global_Strategic_Trends_Out_to_2040UDCDCStrat_Trends_4.pdf

113. Climate Change

114. The Climate Change ChallengeHow fast can CO2 emissions be reduced per unit travel?How can we move towards convergence on the most effective way to reduce aviation climate change impacts?How can we best address non-CO2 climate impacts?Where are carbon emissions owned?Source: Henley Centre Headlight Vision Managing the environmental challenges of growth in aviation Draft report of stakeholderevent, Cambridge October 2006

115. TravelOutlook

116. Multi Speed Recovery Leading tomany Types of Tourist The global travel and tourism industry will experience a multi-speed recovery taking up to a further four years to fully recover to pre-global downturn levels, reveals a report launched on June 16th 2010. Euromonitor Internationals Forecast Update Recovery In Sight? - reveals the global travel and tourism industry will experience a multi-speed recovery kick started by the developing economies as high unemployment and debt in developed countries holds back their growth. Global international arrivals will not recover to pre-crisis 2008 levels until 2012, while incoming tourism receipts will not recover until 2013. Furthermore, the hotels sector will not fully recover to 2008 levels until 2014. The hotel sector in Australasia, Latin America, and Europe will take the longest to recover. Asia is again driving force behind the hotels recovery, due to the continued expansion of international and local chains.Source: World Tourism Directory, June 2010http://www.worldtourismdirectory.com/news/4325/global-travel-industry-to-experience-multi-speed-recovery.html

117. Travel in 2023 A report by KPMG released in April 2008 ranked transport and tourism as the sectorsleast well prepared for climate change and among those most commercially exposedto the physical risks it presents. Forum for the Future in its Tourism 2023 report of October 2009 partnered withcompanies like British Airways, Carnival UK, and Advantage Travel Centres toanalyze the impact our ever-growing ecological footprint will have on travel. The four scenarios under which we could progress: 1) Boom and Burst 2) Divided Disquiet 3) Price and Privilege 4) Carbon ClampdownSource: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

118. Source: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

119. Boom and Burst A booming economy and high disposable incomes have fuelled a growth in travelworldwide. People travel further, more frequently, and at faster speeds than everbefore. There are many new reasons to go abroad as global political stability andprospering economies have opened up the world to more commerce and visitors. Rapid advances in technology have been crucial, such as the breakthrough in algae-based fuels. Dramatic improvements in efficiencies have allowed the transport sectorjust about to keep pace with new regulations and their impacts, such as the steadilyrising global price of carbon. Legally binding carbon targets are being met but many are asking how long this cancontinue. Many destinations are suffering from serious overcrowding. Wilderness isperhaps the scarcest resource as road, rail, sea and air routes have brought masstourism to the last corners of the planet.Source: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

120. Boom and Burst highlights Tourists flock to see the ancient shrines and archaeological treasures of Iraq. Massive protests spoil the opening of the Mount Everest Theme Park. Tourism puts huge strains on infrastructure in popular destinations like New York,Paris and London. Visitors are herded between attractions with timed tickets. High-tech carbon scrubbers installed on the ground clean the air so you can travel. Overcrowding in popular destinations has led to the rise of glamorous campsites,pop up hotels with stackable modules, and floating resorts. Fastest growing destinations: the Democratic Republic of Burma, Yemen, BeyondBotswana Plc (Privatised Special Economic Zone), Somalia, Argentina, Brazil,Antarctica, Near space voyages, Papua New Guinea, Kazakhstan. Source: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

121. Divided Disquiet A toxic combination of devastating climate change impacts, violent wars over scarceresources and social unrest has created an unstable and fearful world. This hasmade travelling overseas an unattractive proposition. Many destinations were unprepared for the impacts of a changing climate. Moreextreme weather events, rising sea levels, increased flooding and frequent droughtshave battered some places, while food shortages and malnutrition, malaria, andconflict over resources like water and oil have wreaked havoc in others. Visitors are highly selective in where and when they travel, cramming into a smallnumber of destinations where overcrowding compounds the problems. A breakthrough in affordable telepresence technology has proved surprisingly popularwith businesses that are keen to cut costs. This resulted in drastically reducednumbers of certain air routes, closing them to many holidaymakers.Source: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

122. Divided Disquiet Highlights One flight per year policy for major US company encourages executives to cut costswith telepresence technologies. Tour guides with a military background hired as part of a holiday package for extraprotection abroad. Rising sea levels force Government of Maldives to step up relocation plans to India. Latest hot holiday craze is massive resorts offering golf and skiing across sanddunes. Eiffel Tower auctioned off to a multinational corporation as part of sponsored heritageplan. Fast growing destinations: Norway, Ireland, Latvia, UK, Greenland Doomsday Park,Canada, Denmark, France, Sweden, The Estonian Army Base Experience. Source: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

123. Price and Privilege A dramatically high oil price has made travel punitively expensive. Dwindling suppliesand rising demand from the new economies of Asia have pushed energy prices into aseries of sharp and unpredictable spikes. The travel industry worldwide has been badly hit and aviation has shrunkdramatically. Fleet replacements have been slower than anticipated and the predictedefficiency gains could not keep pace. There have been mass redundancies acrossthe travel industry and a period of dramatic consolidation across the world. Although a small, elite market continues to fly regularly, the vast majority of peoplesimply cannot afford the experience. The days of affordable travel are now just anostalgic memory. People who want to holiday abroad either save up for years and fly overseas or jointhe new mass market of overland connections. Pan-European rail, bus and seanetworks offer the most cost-effective means of travel for most people. State-of-the-art super-hubs provide seamless connections between different parts of thecomfortable and affordable system of overland travel.Source: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

124. Price and Privilege HighlightsDemonstrators take to streets in cities across the world demanding the right to fly.Ukraine positions itself as the Gateway to the East with new Kiev bus-rail megahub plan.Absolutely no frills airline sector from some non-EU countries offers standing room only and no cabin crew.Banks offer holiday credit schemes allowing family and friends to save together for the annual trip.Fastest growing destinations: Montenegro, France, Lithuania, Portugal, Germany, Central Europe Lakelands, SailRail breaks to Greece, Morocco, The Tropical Island Experience (Jersey), Ukraine.Source: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

125. Carbon Clampdown Governments introduce tradable carbon quotas for all households as part bold plansto tackle climate change. Individual allowances are seen as the fairest way ofallocating the right to pollute equally. The public has clamoured for tough action. Environmental impacts are increasinglyfelt. Although there has been no great shift in cultural values, support for regulation ishigh. The economy is more localised, and disposable incomes are low. Many holidaymakers are still keen to travel abroad, but perceptions of the purposeand real costs of travel have changed. Although distance is a key consideration, thereason for the holiday is crucial: what you are doing is more important than whereyou are. Ethical travel is a new mass market, and the government encourages this with thecarbon rebate for volunteering whilst abroad. Source: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

126. Carbon Clampdown Highlights Major travel firm goes bust after massive boycott coordinated by a popular websiteover its environmental policy. Red Cross Swarm uses social networks to send volunteers to disaster zones fasterthan official agency staff. Peer-to-peer holidaying allows people to swap lives with another family and spend ayear in another part of the world. Fastest growing destinations: Cornwall, Ukraine, Sweden, Mozambique SpecialVolunteer Zone, Lithuania, Northumbria, Cork, France, Slow Boat Community(registered to Guyana), Liverpool.Source: Forum for the Future Tourism 2023, October 2009http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

127. What does this mean? Fast Company notes that thereality of vacationing in 2023 willprobably be a combination ofthese scenarios, with high oilprices, disappearing wilderness,carbon quotas, and advances inair travel (i.e. biofuel-poweredplanes).Source: Fast Company Tourism 2023 Imagines the Future of Vacations, October 2009http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/ariel-schwartz/sustainability/tourism-2023-imagines-future-vacations

128. Predictions Charles Goddard, Asia Pacific Editorial Director, Economist IntelligenceUnit, speaking at the ALTM Ultratravel Forum, said that China, despitethe crisis, and because of economic stimulus packages, had continued togrow in the last 18 months by between 8% and 9%. This shift would beeven more dramatic if China became more consumption driven as opposedto export led, and this was beginning to happen. Asia was the growth market par-excellence with 50% of globalconsumption being centred in the region in the next 4-5 years. An explosionin travel would be an offshoot of this phenomenon, he said.Source: Travel Daily News Bullish growth for inbound and outbound travel in Asia Pacific and China, June 2010http://www.traveldailynews.com/pages/show_page/37535-Bullish-growth-for-inbound-and-outbound-travel-in-Asia-Pacific-and-China

129. Future of Travel and Tourism 1. Keeping it local. If trends in energy, economy, and environment continue, thentraveling long distances for recreation will become more rare. In order for the resortcommunity to maintain a market, they will need to cater more to a local clientele. Thisis captured in the concept of the 10-kilometer hotel, one whose prime customerscome from the local area for a respite. 2. Alternative transport. In 2009 a newspaper in Seattle featured a photo of a localorganic farmer delivering his wares via sailboat to the docks in Seattle. He calls it theno-oil food. In the travel and tourism industry this kind of move will be and is beingmirrored as people seek out non-motorized experiences like biking through France, ortaking trips by sail. Over the longer term, again depending on how energy,environment, and economic trends play out, it is likely that tourists will seek outslower, less energy intensive, even zero-fossil fuel energy experiences.Source: Futurist Future of Travel and Tourism ,by Glen Hiemstra on 01/07/09http://www.futurist.com/2009/07/01/future-of-travel-and-tourism/

130. Future of Travel and Tourism 3. Destination evolution. This trend is underway, as destination resorts focus onbecoming greener and more sustainable, more local in their attraction, more astute intheir use of information technology for advertising and for management, and moreknowledgeable of market trends via research. 4. New whys of travel. It is said that there is graffiti from ancient tourists on themonuments in Egypt. People have always and will always travel to see new placesand people, even if they have to walk or ride an animal to do so. That is not going tochange. But, one more time depending on how the converging trends play out, wemay see a return to the why of travel being for two primary purposes to visit family,and to seek new adventure. Business travel may decline as 3D-net technologiesbecome robust, and distance travel may decline as economic and environmentalimperatives demand. Local travel may fill the need for reconnecting with yourself andrecharging the batteries. In fact making that a focus of what you offer in the travel andtourism industry may be one key to the future.Source: Futurist Future of Travel and Tourism, by Glen Hiemstra on 01/07/09http://www.futurist.com/2009/07/01/future-of-travel-and-tourism/

131. FutureCustomers

132. Changing European Ethnicity

133. Preference for Rail over Air 66% - Europe 18% - USA

134. Trends Concierge services are set to make arise across the mid market travelsector according to EuromonitorInternational, who released theirresults for the 2010 global traveltrends at the World Travel Market inNovember 2009 Kuoni are one company set to offercustomers concierge options. AndreaMueller, Communications Manager forKuoni said; "Today people areoverwhelmed by information on traveland tourism services and need moreguidance. Concierge services will playand important role in helping themmake intelligent choices based on theirindividual needs".Source: World Travel Guide, November 2009http://www.worldtravelguide.net/news/3551/news/Global-travel-trends-2010.html

135. Simple Identity The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) plummeted the value of the High Net Worthpopulation by US $32.8 trillion or 19.5% according to the World Wealth Report (2009)published by CapGemini and Merrill Lynch, so the rich are less rich. Writing in the Harvard Business Review, Paul Flatters and Michael Wilmott argue thatin most developed economies pre GFC, that the precession consumer behaviour wasthe product of 15 years of uninterrupted prosperity, driven by growth in real levels ofdisposal incomes, low inflation, stable employment and booming property prices. As such, new consumer appetites emerged in which the consumer could afford to becurious about gadgets and technology, in which tourists shelled out for enriching andfun experiences on exotic locations. Where they could afford several holidays a yearand rent premium experiences such as hiring a Ferrari for the weekend in exoticlocations like Japan. The GFC changed that, propelling tourist trends into slowdown, halting or evenreserving the trajectory of growth in world tourism.Source: Tomorrows Tourist Simple Identity, 2009http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

136. Simple Identity So, is this a sample of the future, an era of the pension crisis, scarcity of oil, inflationand falling levels of disposal income in which tourism expenditure falls year on year? If so, what will the future tourist look like? Rather than having a fluid identity it will bemore akin to simplicity. During an economic slowdown, tourists tend to travel less, stay nearer home(increase in domestic tourism) and seek simplicity suchas exploreworldwide.com value based holidays focusing on basic facilities, meetinglocals, lots of free time and cheap in exotic locations throughout the world. This trendis accelerated in a scenario of falling incomes as a simple and functional product thatwill suffice. A simple identity means that offering advice becomes extremelyimportant, whether its websites farecast.coms ,which advises travellers of theoptimal time to purchase an airline ticket or price comparison technologies which arefound on many online booking services. Source: Tomorrows Tourist Simple Identity, 2009 http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

137. Simple Identity Research by the Trajectory Group highlights that affluent consumers have revealedmounting dissatisfaction with excessive consumption. Many desire a wholesome andless wasteful life. As such, there is a desire to get back to nature, something that istranquil, basic, rooted, human and simple (Yeoman 2008). As a consequence, thedesire for more authentic and simple luxury experiences accelerates. An example ofsimple luxury, are tree house hotels which offer a unique experience in a naturalsetting. A new experience which is not seen as conspicuous consumption, but overtlyinconspicuous. In a simple identity, ethical consumption declines as paying a premium for aStarbucks coffee falls by the wayside, even if they use organic coffee which supportschildren in a third world country. From a tourism perspective, many of the ethicaltourism projects in third world countries such as Africa and India which depend onindependent travellers will suffer. Source: Tomorrows Tourist Simple Identity, 2009 http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

138. Simple Identity Tourists also have become canny at searching for bargains which economists callmercurial consumption, whether it is using price comparison software, or grabbinglast minute offers from websites such as grabaseat.co.nz which offer last minute airtravel deals to New Zealand consumers, or 5pm.co.uk which offers diners the chanceof discounted meals after 5pm that evening. Technology and social media networkenabling purchasing strategies, further accelerate this trend of mercurialconsumption. Attitudes to travel also change, as tourism has to compete with other forms of leisureexpenditure, whether it is the latest technology gadgets or virtual holidays. There is ageneration of Japan youth who prefer their X-Box than climbing Mt Fuji. The desirefor new experiences is more about insperience, where technology provides a betterexperience than in which consumers desire to bring top level experiences into theirdomestic domain. A simple identity is all about simplicity seeking, thrift, green yet mercurial tourists willhold tourism business and brands accountable. In a world of scarcity of resourcesthis scenario becomes the norm.Source: Tomorrows Tourist Simple Identity, 2009http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

139. Market Pain Points

140. Market Pain Points Research on passenger dissatisfaction reflects the obvious issues thatmake air travel difficult. Three main areas represent the majority ofpassenger complaints: service disruptions, long check-in lines and baggageissues. Through the adoption of new communication techniques andinternal systems that take advantage of advanced technology and sharedinformation, airlines and airports can improve their delivery of servicesfocusing on these three primary passenger pain points. Airlines and airports are challenged with updating their operational systemsto eliminate unnecessary manual step whilst interconnecting existinginformation silos to better manage the entire passenger experience.Integration between Departure Control Systems (DCS), Passenger ServiceSystems (PSS), Baggage Reconciliation Systems (BRS), and airportservices can provide improved passenger processing. Delivering serviceson advanced mobile devices will help all entities be more efficient andoperate with lower costs.Source: Amadeus, 2011 http://www.amadeus.com/airlineIT/navigating-the-airport-of-tomorrow/docs/Amadeus-Navigating-the-Airport-Of-Tomorrow-2011-EN.pdf

141. Market Pain Points

142. What Passengers Want As a result of social media-inspired discussion, and with the assistance ofLondon City Airports sales director, Bernard A. Lavelle, Future TravelExperience reveals the views of passengers themselves on what they reallywant from the airport of the future. As outlined in the chart, the aspect that can most improve the passengerexperience on the ground is high-quality signage, communications and staff,with almost a third of all respondents highlighting this as a vital passengerrequirement. The second most common request was free Wi-Fi in the terminal building,while improved facilities, processing and queues, and an enhanced securityprocess are also prominent on the passenger wish list. Airport layout wasalso identified as an area that can make a telling difference to the overallpassenger experience.Source: Future Travel Experience, May 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-passengers-really-want/

143. What Passengers WantSource: Future Travel Experience , May 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-passengers-really-want/

144. EmergingCustomers

145. Tracking the rise of the middle class across the BRICs and N-11:Share of population with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 in PPP terms (Goldman Sachs) 2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%)Brazil 46 52 59 57Russia 71 71 56 29India616 46 89China37 59 75 53Korea67 46 23 7Bangladesh 01538Egypt39 57 84 82Indonesia16 29 57 87Iran 70 77 73 41Mexico 61 65 65 49Nigeria6918 42Pakistan 913 22 49Philippines15 23 40 69Turkey 79 81 70 35Vietnam721 51 84 Source: Goldman Sachs, August 2009 http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/demographic-change/power-of-purse-doc.pdf

146. Primed for More TravelSource: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-2029.pdf

147. Source: Airbus 2009 http://www.airbus.com/en/gmf2009/appli.htm?onglet=&page=

148. Online Bookings in Asia-Pacific, 2008 and 20112008 2011 Australia / New Zealand$6.2B$10.9B China$6.9B$13B India$3.1B$5.5B Japan$11.5B $17.7B Source: PhoCusWrightSource: PhocusWright cited by Travel Weekly China, India will lead regions online bookings boom January 2010http://www.travelweekly.com/article3_ektid209470.aspx

149. China Consumer ReportBy the year 2020, China will have a population of more than 1.4 billion people that will make up a significant portion in the worlds consumer market.The annual disposable income of Chinese consumers is forecasted to increase to 65.4 billion Yuan (US$9.57 billion) by 2020 compared with 15 billion Yuan (US$2.19) in 2008.The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the country would be considered a moderately affluent society by 2020, if development trends since the year 2000 continue. The estimate was made taking into account progress in the fields of the economy, social harmony, quality of life, democracy and law enforcement, culture and education, as well as resources and the environment.Zheng Xinli, Vice-Minister of the Communist Partys central policy research office, said that taking price changes into account, 55% of the population will be middle class by 2020, with 78% of city dwellers and 30% of those in rural areas reaching that status.Middle class is currently defined as having an annual household income of between RMB60,000 (US$8,700) and RMB200,000 (US$29,215). In 2008 prices, the annual disposable income per household will be RMB98,956 (US$14,900) in 2020.Source: Euromonitor 2009 http://www.euromonitor.com/Chinese_consumers_in_2020_A_look_into_the_future

150. China and India Entering Era ofTravel Dun Jidong, spokesman for the China Travel Service notes that GDP per capita hashit $3,000 in China, a level that industry experts agree sends a signal that thecountry is entering a stage of explosive growth in travel consumption. (1)Share of population with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 (PPP terms) (2)2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%)Brazil46 52 59 57Russia71 71 56 29India 616 46 89China 37 59 75 53Source: (1) China Daily January 2010 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/15/content_9323567.htm Source (2): Goldman Sachs, August 2009 http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/demographic-change/power-of-purse-doc.pdf

151. Source: Goldman Sachs Is this the BRICs Decade? May 2010http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-decade-doc.pdf

152. AviationIndustryOutlook

153. International Passengers in 2014Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example%20-%20Projected%20Top%2010%20International%20Markets%20in%202014.pdf

154. Freight in 2014Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example%20-%20Projected%20Top%2010%20International%20Markets%20in%202014.pdf

155. Aviation in 2029Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-2029.pdf

156. Future Demand Passenger air traffic is forecast to double by 2030 as 12 billion of us take tothe skies. So what will the massive airports of the future look like? One theory being discussed is that the future city will be an aerotropolis,with the airport at its heart rather than stationed far away from the centre important if the city is to connect effectively to the global economy. In muchof the western world, airports were developed years ago, when air travelwas a luxury form of transport for the privileged. Now, of course, its a modeof mass traffic, requiring different capacity solutions. Songdo, South Korea, is an example of a city built from scratch at a cost of$40 billion with an airport in the centre. Dubai is rapidly expanding its airport for A380 traffic, where first-classpassengers on the buildings upper level will be able to transfer direct to theupper level of the A380 aircraft.Source: TTG Nordic, 2011 http://www.ttgnordic.com/news/item/429-a-look-at-the-super-airports-of-the-future

157. Future Demand Nearby in Dubai, another gigantic airport, Al-Maktoum International, willeventually have five runways and enough capacity to make it double thesize of the biggest airport around today. The first runway is alreadyoperational for cargo and passengers will be able to fly there by the end of2011. But developers are wary of building a future airport that is too big, creatinglong distances for passengers to walk between flights and concerns overthe logistics and security of having large numbers of people crammedtogether. The key to this is to arrange connecting transport links such astrains or cars to be as close as possible to the plane. In the Middle East there seems to be an airport capacity race. In Europe, itsthe contrary; it is extremely difficult for many airports to develop enoughcapacity to handle the forthcoming explosion in air travel. Projects like BerlinBrandenburg Airport, due to open in 2012, are few and far between. China,by contrast, plans to build 78 new airports by 2020. In Europe, there areplans for five new airports by 2030.Source: TTG Nordic, 2011 http://www.ttgnordic.com/news/item/429-a-look-at-the-super-airports-of-the-future

158. IATA Launches Vision 2050 The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called on industry leadersto look beyond the crisis that buffeted the air transport industry over the lastdecade and to strategically define a sustainable future. Giovanni Bisignani, IATAs Director General and CEO, outlined his vision foraviation in 2050. We will be very near to zero accidents. We will emit halfthe carbon. We will have eliminated queues with integrated systemsensuring security as we process more passengers. We will operate withalmost no delays in globally united skies. We will share costs and profitsequitably across the value chain. We will be a consolidated industry of adozen global brands supported by regional and niche players. And we willdeliver value to investors.Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

159. IATA Launches Vision 2050 In just over a decade, I can see $100 billion in industry profits on revenuesof $1 trillion. As we move towards 2050, this 10% margin will become evenmore robust. This is not just a crazy dream. Before the recession, at least adozen IATA members already had 10% margins. We must make this amuch broader reality. Change in all areas is possible. This visionincludingsustainable profitabilitycan be our future, said Bisignani. Bisignanis vision for 2050 rests on four cornerstones of change: Profitability Infrastructure Powering the industry CustomerSource: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

160. IATA Launches Vision 2050 Profitability: Efficiency gains never make it to the bottom line becauseairlines are deprived of the commercial freedom to operate their businesseslike a normal business. Our poor profitability makes every shock a fight forsurvival, said Bisignani. He laid the blame on the industrys hyperfragmentation with 1061 airlines as a result of the bilateral system whichregulates the global aviation industry. The restrictions on internationalcapital prevent consolidation across borders. The restrictions of thebilateral system are a dam that holds us back. It is time for that dam toburst. Governments must act responsibly to ensure safety, security, and alevel playing field. And airlines need the freedom to build efficiencies acrossborders, better serve their customers, and achieve sustainable profits tofund growth and innovation, said Bisignani.Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

161. IATA Launches Vision 2050 Infrastructure: Infrastructure must be reshaped around the needs ofairlinesthe core of the industrys value chain. Airports should compete forairline business based on efficiency. Commercial revenues will drive theirbusiness. I can see airports paying airlines to bring shoppers and airportrevenues funding the air traffic management system, said Bisignani. Air traffic management must also change. I can see ten global airnavigation service providers (ANSPs) replacing the current 180 at half thecost, said Bisignani. The Single European Sky (SES) would be the first ofthe ten global ANSPs. But we need real leadership to replace theuncoordinated bureaucratic mess that Europe is today, said Bisignani,pleading for a date to achieve the $6.5 billion (EUR 5 billion) cost savingsthat the SES promises. After 20 years of waiting, we are fed up. Heads ofgovernments must set a date and deliver, said Bisignani.Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

162. IATA Launches Vision 2050 Powering the Industry: Todays jet fuel cannot sustain air transport in thelong-term. We must find a sustainable alternative and our most promisingopportunity is bio fuels, which have the potential to reduce our carbonfootprint by up to 80%, said Bisignani. After successful testing by airlines,certification is expected within a year. Bisignani urged greater support fromgovernments. Too often governments are only committed to environmentwhen it means grabbing cash. Governments should be investing in biofuelsand green technologies. Local production with jatropha, camelina, algae, oreven urban waste will open up economic opportunities in virtually anylocation. Not only will this secure a future power source for our industry, thiswill also break the tyranny of oil and drive economic development in all partsof the world.Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

163. IATA Launches Vision 2050 The Customer: The customer is at the center of our future vision. By2050, we will have 16 billion travelers and handle 400 million tonnes ofcargo. In just a couple of decades, we will see the middle class nearly triplefrom the 1.3 billion today to 3.5 billion peoplea quarter of which will be inIndia and China. Accommodating that growth efficiently will be a challengefor all parts of the value chainairports, air navigation service providers,manufacturers and governments. The solution must be strategic andaligned, said Bisignani. Bisignani noted that the air transport industry must engage its 2.4 billionpassengers to change governments over-regulate and under-appreciateattitude. To turn our customers into industry activists, we must improve thevalue proposition of price, speed, and quality. We have reduced the price offlying by 40% since deregulation. But as we made travel more accessible,speed and quality suffered. The infrastructure has not kept pace, resulting indelays both in the air and on the ground. New security procedures creatednew hassles. Our challenge is to gain the support of customers indemanding change from the governments, said Bisignani.Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

164. EUROCONTROL: Long TermForecast Future air traffic will be limited by capacity at the airports, 0.7-5.0 millionflights will not be accommodated in 2030, 5%-19% of the demand. Thecongestion is now lower than in the forecast two years ago. The recent dropin traffic has given the system some extra years to react and adapt but oncethe limits are reached the number of unaccommodated flights increasesquickly. Congested airports create pressure on the flow of operations in thenetwork and will exacerbate delays. Even with airport capacity restrictions airports will grow. In 2030, there willbe 13-34 airports as big as the top 7 are now. Some of the faster growingEast-European airports will join the top 25. European hubs will be faced withcompetition from hubs outside Europe, primarily in the Middle-East. Source: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf

165. EUROCONTROL: Long Term ForecastSource: Eurocontrol, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf

166. EUROCONTROL: Long TermForecastSource: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf

167. Source: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf

168. Visions ofTomorrowsAirport

169. Exploring the Airport of 2030 The importance of generating non-aeronautical revenue streams has alsohad a major impact on the recent developments in the aviation sector, andAlan Lamond, aviation director, Pascall + Watson Architects, explained thatthis will continue to impact on future airport models. He said: We areseeing increased commercialisation of airports and a realisation that youhave to exploit the opportunities presented, and this is done in Westernairports through very intensive retailing. What is increasingly becoming clearis that, for businesses, theres a distinct commercial advantage in beingbased near an international airport. This means that the space around theairport becomes far more valuable. Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/

170. Siemens Airport Lab Inside Siemens airy, 90,000-square-foot glass and steel structure inGermany is an entire infrastructure of an airport, minus only the planes,runways and control tower. Nearly every aspect of airport operations is tested and developed here, fromhigh-tech baggage handling and fleet-management systems to wirelesspassenger check-in and 3-D security. The airport center, built in 2005, houses real-time, check-in counters, aparking guidance system, a control center and a luggage conveyor with beltand tray conveyors stretching more than 6,000 feet. The baggage systemcan handle 30 million pieces of luggage per year. (In Germany, only Munichand Frankfurt airports have larger systems.) On the passenger side of the terminal, a prototype system is being fine-tuned that would allow travelers to check in using only their mobile phones.Once a passenger makes a phone call to check in, the system then sendsback a bar code that displays on the mobile phones screen. Special readersat the airport then scan and print out boarding passes.Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236

171. Siemens Airport Lab Also being tested in the lab are new fingerprint and facial-recognitionsystems as Siemens targets the ever-expanding need for better security atairports everywhere. Iris scans, fingerprint-based IDs and 3-D face digitization are all beingtested here as part of the companys development of cutting-edgerecognition and security systems. One area developed by Siemens that is already being employed at airportsfrom Seoul to Denver is a baggage system that employs radio-frequencyidentification or RFID technology. The RFID tags are applied directly to baggage and are a much moreefficient way of identification and tracking luggage using radio waves. More than 3.1 million missing baggage reports were filed in the UnitedStates alone in 2009, according to the Air Travel Consumer Reportproduced by the U.S. Department of Transportation.Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236

172. Siemens Airport Lab Siemens says the radio wave technology will eventually replace bar-codetracking systems now employed at many airports because it allows bags tobe instantly updated with changes to a passengers flight or security status.That should drastically lower the risk of the dreaded lost luggage nightmare. From check-in to loading on an aircraft it allows more useful data to travelalong with the bag. Airport systems make up about 2 percent of the companys $100.7 billionannual revenue. But that number is expected to rise as the need for betterairport technology surges along with the number of air travelers.Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236

173. Visions of the Future EADS Innovation Works (IW), the corporate network of research centres ofEADS, and Altran, an international advanced engineering and innovationconsulting group, are jointly working on projects supporting the long-termevolution of the air transport industry. The goal of a recent study was to create revolutionary airport concepts.EADS IW and Altran organised workshops with representatives of airlines,airports, air traffic management and aircraft manufacturers as well asrepresentatives of other transport sectors. It was recognised that, for short and medium flights, future passengersexperience will play a significant role in the competition between aviationand high-speed rail transport. This research contributes to the goals set forth in the EuropeanCommissions report Flightpath 2050 - Europes Vision for Aviation, whosetarget is for 90% of travellers in Europe to be able to complete their journey,door to door, within four hours.Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

174. Visions of the Future Intermodal transfers will be seamless and final destinations are to be reached smoothly, predictably and on time while accommodating the increasing demand for air travel. These concepts put passengers at the heart of the air transport system. The result is a passenger-friendly experience and lean processes which we have labeled Friend- Lean Airport of the Future, said Guy Gallic, head of the Technical Capability Centre Innovative Concepts and Scenarios at EADS IW. In future, we will speak not only about infrastructure but about an extended door-to door experience. The airport terminal will become a lean step in the journey towards co-modal and connected travel, explained Sebastien Renouard, Executive Director AeroSpace & Defence International at Altran. On an average day in 2010, 6.5 million passengers flew an average of 2,000km on one of 14,000 commercial jets. By 2050, the number of passengers per day will increase to roughly 44 million globally. Beyond 2040, the study aimed to find revolutionary airport concepts capable of handling 25-100 million passengers per year.Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

175. Eye to the Sky

176. Visions of the Future The following three concept from EADSs were selected and elaborated inmore detail. The Eye to the Sky concept. The aircraft traffic area is located above the terminals, while the flow ofpassengers through the terminals to their planes is vertical. From arriving atthe airport to reaching their seats on the plane, passengers use spiralramps that link every level of the airport. This concept focuses not only oninfrastructural design but also on solutions for guiding passengers throughan augmented reality information system. A mobile device would connect tothe airport network and act as a portable personal guide to help people findtheir way at the airport. Lean security systems based on new technologieswould also be embedded.Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

177. Visions of the Future The Passenger Airport Shuttles (PAS) concept. With a predicted time of at most seven minutes to get from anywhere in theairport to any Skygate, passengers can choose to spend more time at theairports central terminal facilities or they can arrive at the airport less than10 minutes before departure and still catch their flight. In this decentralised approach, passengers are moved in Passenger AirportShuttle vehicles which are guided by an automated central airport controlsystem. An identification function ensures that passengers and their traveldata are recognised by the control system as soon as they board, and thevehicle then offers them a transportation and information service dedicatedto their specific needs. Aircraft will be docked to a Skygate, a minimalbuilding that forms the interface between the aircraft and the PAS. Baggagewill be handled at the Skygate, reducing the baggage deposition andretrieval times to a minimum.Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

178. Visions of the Future The Extended Airport concept The Extended Airport concept addresses the vision of providing a door-to-door travel service in the literal sense by extending the transportationservice so that passengers (or just their luggage) are picked up at theirhome or office. In this vision, air transport and airports are fully integratedwith other transport modes. The proper competition and collaborationbetween modes of transport are ensured by a transport planner on the userinterface where passengers can plan their trips. It will take many revolutionsin the air transport sector to create solutions that deliver on the ambitiousobjectives set forth by the European Commissions FlightPath 2050.Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

179. User Friendly Terminals Munich Airports new InfoGates allow passengers to obtain quick anddetailed information to help them navigate around the terminal. Passengers using the InfoGate can simply push a button, which connectsthem immediately to an information service representative viavideoconference. Six InfoGates are already operational in the public and non-public areas ofthe airport, and 17 Interactive InfoGates are positioned at key crossroadsthroughout the terminals. These consist of touch-screens mounted on pillars, offering a full range ofinformation on services, shopping and dining at the airport.Source: Future Travel Experience, June 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/06/munich-airports-infogates-offer-improved-wayfinding/

180. Future of Airports David Holm, Principal Architect, Woodhead, explained that retail, commercial, advertising and other forms of revenue generation will be crucial within the development of terminals of the future. Not only do these forms of commerce provide funding incomes, they also play a key role in crafting the unique character of the place and in enhancing the total journey experience. It is our design view that retail and commercial developments and strategies must be incorporated at the earliest phases of project planning. In this way, the form of a new project is designed from the inside out in harmony with the outside in pressure applied by the equally crucial requirements of exterior aircraft planning, he said. At the Check-In 2010 Conference in Las Vegas, Holm referred to four key themes:Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-thinking/

181. Future of Airports Urban Catalyst Innovative civic and transport leaders are now seeingairports and their surrounding and supporting infrastructure, often referredto as airport cities, as the catalysts of urban growth and often regeneration;a key part of the c21st polycity concept. Civic Buildings The contemporary airport within the c21st polycity istodays crossroads celebrating trade and community gathering. As such theurban structure and the built forms of the airport must stand as civicbuildings respected by the community and designed with a sense ofcommunity, flexibility and longevity.Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-thinking/

182. Future of AirportsSense of Place Our design projects endeavour to make the subtle connection between context, place making and built form in order to weave our built form into the community within which it exists.Total Journey Experience The transport node, whether it be a domestic or international airport or multi-modal station, has existed as an evolutionary control at the edges of regions or borders. As such the node has performed a variety of functions, ranging from service industries to authority procedures. This variety of stakeholders has many functions to address, though all conjoined represent the overall brand and experience of the transport node.It appears clear that a consistent approach towards design provides the passenger with a coherent total journey experience throughout their incoming and outgoing experiences as a traveller.Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-thinking/

183. Exploring the Airport of 2030 The impact of a master plan, which often outlines a blueprint for the airportwith a vision for the next two decades or more, is the most integral part ofthe planning process and can often provide an idea of how airports willcontinue to develop in the mid-to-long-term. Curtis Fentress, principal-in-charge of design, Fentress Architects, said:With master plans you almost need a crystal ball. You have to design forflexibility, which can accommodate for future needs even though you dontknow what these will be. Flexibility really is key and I think that because ofthis, you will see more airports with column-free buildings. At LAX wevedesigned large, column-free buildings so that were completely flexible forany future developments. This is even something that you can see in thedesign of Denver International Airport, which has just celebrated its 15thbirthday. Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/

184. The Intelligent Networked Airport A passenger-sensing, self-organising unified network to track the location of every passenger and bag in the terminal will feature in future airports. Its not much fun sitting in an airport waiting for a plane. But might it be less of a chore if you could download your in-flight films in the departure lounge? Might you even pay for the service? If you find that airport bars usually serve the best antidotes to tedium, would you be glad to know that a nearby display can detect your presence, prompt you when your gate number changes and provide clear directions to it at drinking-up-and-boarding time? Its being developed by scientists from the University of Cambridge, University College London, and the University of Leeds. The idea is to tidy up the tangle of wired and wireless networks used in most modern airports by installing a single infrastructure that can handle GSM, 3G, Wi-Fi and RFID communications, as well as locating every person and piece of baggage in the building.Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html

185. The Intelligent Networked Airport TINA - The intelligent networked airport For instance, can we solve problems like bags being in one place but the passenger not showing up, or a passenger being on an airplane and not knowing where their bags are? asks Jon Crowcroft, Marconi professor of communications systems at the Cambridge University Computer Laboratory. Organising a buildings network infrastructure in this way could also create opportunities for airport operators to generate money. In an airport environment, where in-building communications systems [such as Wi- Fi] are often used to generate revenue for the airport operator, the adoption of such a technology could lead to some interesting innovation with regard to the commercial models under which airports operate, says Justin Trevan, a consultant at the communications division of Arup - an engineering consultancy well known for its work on airports, including Heathrows Terminal 5 and Dubai International Airport.Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html

186. The Intelligent Networked AirportTo track people and assets, researchers are looking at both active and passive RFID tags, locating the active tags by comparing the different time delays of the transmitted signals as they arrive at neighbouring antenna units, which are typically positioned tens of metres apart.Being battery-powered and expensive, active RFID tags would only be suitable where they could be re-used and recharged, such as when issued to members of staff or applied to airport vehicles. In contrast, passive RFID tags could be printed cheaply on disposable paper boarding cards or luggage labels, given to every passenger and attached to each of their bags. In Hong Kong airport, luggage is already labelled with bar-coded passive RFID tags that are read (by conventional short-range means) with two antennas placed either side of the luggage conveyer belt.Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html

187. The Intelligent Networked Airport Zinwave application A long-range passive RFID sensing scheme is novel and technically difficult. However, Sithamparanathan Sabesan, Michael Crisp, Richard Penty and Ian White atthe University of Cambridges department of engineering, have found a way to reducethe fading and improve the accuracy of RSSI techniques, using an optimised Zinwaveradio-over-fibre hub with multiple antennas. The first challenge was getting the range up to 20m. The second, which were stillworking on, is the resolution at that range. Weve got the location accuracy down toaround 2m, but wed like to do better, said Professor White, head of photonicsresearch in the electrical division of the department of engineering at Cambridge. Tracking every single passenger anywhere in the building all the time may not befeasible with passive RFID tags. But the technology could indicate if a passenger hasmoved from one space to another, maybe from a lounge to a bar, which is enough totarget a message to a nearby display, page them, or send someone to find them.Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html

188. The Intelligent Networked AirportNetwork architecture specificationsThe basic TINA network architecture is being designed to support a terminal with typically 1,000 fixed and 500 mobile video cameras (demanding 10Gbit/s of bandwidth); 500 displays (10Gbit/s); 500 biometric scanners (10Gbit/s); private and public fixed and wireless LAN (20Gbit/s); cellular services (10Gbit/s); TETRA and private radio (500Mbit/s); as well as passive RFID (300Gbit/s) and active RFID (5Gbit/s). These figures, which include projections for future demand, are based on input from BAA and other companies involved with the network installations in Heathrow Terminals 4 and 5.The software tool can model and simulate passenger flow, radio propagation delays, optimum antenna position, and bandwidth requirements to give a top-down picture of how the network might perform under various circumstances.In this way, designers can better understand how the flow of people in indoor spaces, traffic demands and energy consumption constraints might influence different architectures.Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html

189. TINA Key FactsThe network will support: 1,000 Fixed and 500 Mobile Video Cameras - 10 Gb/s 500 Displays - 10 Gb/s 500 Biometric Scanners - 10 Gb/s Private and Public Fixed and Wireless LAN - 20 Gb/s Cellular services - 10 Gb/s TETRA and private radio - 0.5 Gb/s Passive RFID - 0.2 Gb/s Active locatable RFID - 5 Gb/s Aggregate Mean Rate 65.7 Gb/s; assumed Aggregate PeakRate 100 Gb/s

190. Flexible Terminals

191. Flexible Terminals An Austrian company, TMT, has installed a mobile passenger terminal at Switzerlands Geneva Airport. It is designed as a flexible structure, to expand and contract airport capacity, depending on demand. With a growing number of companies providing such facilities driven by the increasing seasonality of flight operations and the continuing lack of available finance is the future going to be "temporary and mobile"? Could this be the ultimate low-cost terminal? TMTs management stated the terminal can be installed and dismantled within a week.Source: Centre for Aviation, February 2011http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2011/02/14/upwardly-mobile--airport-terminals-that-match-the-seasonal-nature-of-the-airline-business/page1

192. Flexible Terminals Thomas Melcher, managing director and inventor of TMT The MobileTerminal - Melcher has ambitious plans for TMT The Mobile Terminal,particularly in emerging markets in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America.In the next three years, we are targeting 20 to 25 mobile terminalsworldwide, he said. Indeed, the effectiveness of the terminal solution during major events in anairports catchment area means discussions are already underway with theRussian market with regards to the 2014 Winter Olympics, which take placein Sochi, and the 2012 European Football Championships in Poland andUkraine. TMT The Mobile Terminal is also exploring the possibility of rentingits terminal solutions for short-term periods.Source: Airport Business, April 2011 http://www.airport-business.com/2011/04/first-tmt-the-mobile-terminal-opened-at-geneva-airport/

193. The Airport City This geographical advantage has led to the rapid rise of the airport cityand, according to Curtis Fentress, principal-in-charge of design, FentressArchitects, this is likely to become an increasing trend in years to come. I think you will see more of the airport city, he explained. In the MiddleEast, you see a tremendous surge in passenger numbers and there is thena need for hotels and other services and this is something that we may seeelsewhere in the next 20 years. Airports will become more multi-modal andthe construction of office buildings, conference buildings, air freight facilities,and even the likes of beauty salons within the actual airport are things thatare already becoming more widespread. With environmental sustainability now firmly established toward the very topof the list of priorities within the field of airport architecture, the need toexplore the use of green energy is more evident than ever before. Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/

194. Airport Cities: Manchester

195. Airport Cities: ManchesterMore than 10,000 jobs could be created around Manchester Airport when it is turned into a mini city.The 400m Airport City project was given the green light after the government named it as one of its first Enterprise Zones.It is one of 21 designated areas nationwide that will offer tax breaks for businesses, simplified planning rules and super-fast broadband as part of plans to grow local economies and jobs by removing barriers for new companies.Money raised from discounted business rates in the area will be available to re-invest in Greater Manchesters redevelopment.Airport bosses say the Enterprise Zone status means they can start immediately on Airport City, which is expected to bring 10,500 full time jobs 13,000 in total over the next 10 to 15 years. A 60-acre site, centred around Manchester Business Park to the north of the airport, will introduce new offices, hotels, shops and manufacturing space.Source: Manchester Evening News, March 2011 http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1416306_manchester-airport-enterprise-zone-will-generate-mini-city-with-10500-jobs

196. Airlines andAircraftFutures

197. Impact of Consolidation

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