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© 2020 From Technologies to Markets © 2020 Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 Market and Technology Report 2020 Sample
© 2020
From Technologies to Markets
© 2020
Status of the Advanced
Packaging Industry 2020
Market and Technology
Report 2020
Sample
22
GLOSSARIES
AI Artificial Intelligence
ASIC Application Specific Integrated Circuit
AR Augmented Reality
BE Back-End
BGA Ball Grid Array
CIS CMOS Image Sensor
CSP Chip Scaled Package
CPU Central Processing Unit
DSP Digital Signal Processor
DMS Design Manufacturing Services
DTV Digital TV
ED Embedded Die (in laminate substrate)
EMS Electronics Manufacturing Services
FE Front-End
FI Fan-In
FC Flip Chip
FO Fan-Out
FPGA Field Programmable Gate Array
GPU Graphics Processing Unit
HBM High Bandwidth Memory
HD High Density (Fan-Out) OR High Definition (TV)
HPC High Performance Computing
HVM HighVolume Manufacturing
I/O Input/Output
IDM Integrated Device Manufacturer
IC Integrated Circuit
IIoT Industrial Internet of Things
IoT Internet of Things
L/S Line/Space
LED Light Emitting Diode
M&A Merger & Acquisition
mSAP modified Semi-Additive Process
ODM Original Design Manufacturer
OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer
OSAT Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test
PC Personal Computer
PCB Printed Circuit Board
PCBA Printed Circuit Board Assembly
PLP Panel Level Packaging
PMIC Power Management IC
PWB Printed Wiring Board
QFN Quad Flat No-Leads
QFP Quad Flat Package
RDL Redistribution layer
RF Radio Frequency
SAP Semi-Additive Process
SiM System in Module
SiP System in Package
SMT Surface Mount Technology
STB Set-Top Box
TSV Through Si Via
TXVR Transceiver
VR Virtual Reality
WB Wirebond
WE Wearables
WiFi Wireless Fidelity
WLP Wafer Level Package
©2020 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
o Introduction 3
o Methodology
o Report Synergies
o Objectives, Scope, Glossary
o What we get right & what we get wrong ?
o Advanced Packaging platforms
o Noteworthy news on advanced packaging 16
o 3 Page Summary 18
o Executive Summary 22
o What happened in 2018 and what to expect in next 2 years?
o Key slides from the report
o Semiconductor Business Trends & Outlook 78
o Semiconductor industry trends and market drivers
o Effect of US-China trade dispute on semiconductor business & supply chain
o Advanced Packaging Technology Trend 100
o What is driving AP business ?
o Impact of FEOL on packaging
o Packaging & Technology roadmaps
o Focus on TSMC, Intel & Samsung Electronics AP
o Advanced Packaging Market Trend 139o Forecasts per adv. packaging platforms
o Unit counto Wafer counto Revenue
o Forecast of adv. Packaging platforms by applications
o Different Advanced Packaging Platform Summary 159
o Analysis per platform and future development : Flip-chip,Fan-out, Fan-in, 3D Stacking, Embedded-die & AdvancedSubstrates
o Players and Supply Chain 175
o Player landscape and positioning
o Business model shifts
o Overview of production per manufacturer
o Advanced packaging wafer breakdown by manufacturers by different technology: flip-chip, fan-out, fan-in, 3D/2.5D IC
o Advanced packaging wafer breakdown by business model: OSATs, IDMs & Foundries
o Player financials 199
o TOP 25 OSAT financial analysis
o Rankings by different parameters: revenues, Gross profit, net-income, R&D etc.
o Recent development of key OSATs
o Mergers/Acquisitions and recent development 239
o List of M&As in semiconductor since 2013
o Analysis of M&As trend in OSATs sector and various scenarios for 2019-2024
o M&As scenarios for OSATs
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
o Conclusions 254
o Appendix 257
o Yole Développement presentation 265
44
METHODOLOGIES & DEFINITIONS
Market
Volume (in Munits)
ASP (in $)
Revenue (in $M)
Yole’s market forecast model is based on the matching of several sources:
Information
Aggregation
Preexisting
information
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55
Vaibhav TRIVEDI
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Santosh KUMAR
Santosh Kumar is currently working as Director & Principal Analyst in the Semiconductor & Software division at Yole Développement, part of YoleGroup of Companies. His main interest areas are advanced electronic packaging materials and technology including TSV and 3D packaging, modelingand simulation, reliability and material characterization, wire bonding and novel solder materials and process etc. He received bachelor and masterdegrees in engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Roorkee and University of Seoul, respectively. He has published more than 40papers in peer reviewed journals and has obtained 2 patents. He has presented and given talks at numerous conferences and technical symposiumsrelated to advanced microelectronics packaging.
Favier SHOO
Favier Shoo is a Technology and Market Analyst in the Semiconductor & Software division at Yole Développement (Yole), part of Yole Group of Companies. Based in Singapore, he is engaged in the development of reports as well as the production of custom consulting projects. With prior experience at Applied Materials and REC Solar, Favier has developed a deep understanding of the supply chain and core business values. Being knowledgeable in this field, Favier has conducted professional training for industry players and obtained two patents. He also co-founded a startup company. Favier holds a bachelor’s in Materials Engineering (Hons) and a minor in Entrepreneurship from Nanyang Technological University (NTU) (Singapore).
Vaibhav Trivedi is a Sr. Technology and Market Analyst in the Semiconductor & Software division at Yole Développement, part of Yole Group of Companies. Based in the US, he is a member of Yole’s advanced packaging team and contributes to analysis of ever-changing advanced packaging technologies. Vaibhav has 17+ years of field experience in semiconductor processing and semiconductor supply chain, specifically on memory and thermal component sourcing and advanced packaging such as SiP and WLP. Vaibhav has held multiple technical and commercial lead roles at various semiconductor corporations prior to joining Yole. Vaibhav holds a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering, and Master of Science of Material Science from University of Florida in addition to an MBA from Arizona State
[email protected] of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
Biographies & contacts
66
Altera, Amkor, Analog Devices, Ardentec, Atmel, AOI Electronics, Apple, ARM, ASE, Avago, Bitmain, Broadcom,
Carsem, China WLCSP, Chipbond, ChipMOS, Cisco, Cypress Semiconductor, Deca Technologies, Greatek, IC
Interconnect, Fairchild, Facebook, Flip Chip International, Formosa, Freescale, Fujitsu, GlobalFoundries, Google,
Hana Micron, Huawei, Inari Berhad, Intel, Intersil, J-Devices, JCET, King Yuan, Linear Technology, LB Semicon, Lingsen
Precision, Maxim, MaxLinear, MediaTek, Microchip, Microsemi, Movidius, Nantong-Fujitsu, Nanium, Nepes, Nvidia,
NXP, ON Semiconductor, OptoPAC, Orient Semiconductor, Powertech Technology, Renesas, Qualcomm, Rohm,
Samsung, SilTech, Sigurd, SK Hynix, Softbank, SPIL, ST Microelectronics, STATS ChipPAC, STS Semiconductor,
Teraprobe, Texas Instruments, Tianshui Huatian, Tong Hsing, Toshiba, TSMC, Unisem, UTAC, Walton Advanced
Engineering, and many more…
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
COMPANIES CITED IN THIS REPORT
> 100 companies cited in the report
7
WHAT’S NEW IN THE STATUS OF ADVANCED PACKAGING 2020?
o Updated forecast of the semiconductor market including memory & non-memory components
o Included key system level demand forecast: mobile & consumer, automotive, telecom & infrastructure
o Update of Advanced Packaging market data (2019-2025):
o By revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts
o By advanced packaging platforms: flip-chip, fan-out, fan-in, 3D stacked, embedded die
o Included COVID-19 impact on all forecasts
o Analysis of US-China effect on semiconductor business & supply chain
o Update 2019 - 2025 revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts, by various application segments: consumer &mobile, automotive & transportation, telecom & infrastructure, medical, industrial, defense & aerospace
o Updated supply chain analysis with focus on impact of foundry entry into advanced packaging business
o Wafer starts share by manufacturers from different business model (IDM, OSAT, foundry) by differentadvanced packaging platform and its evolution
o Updated financial analysis of the top 25 OSATs (2019-2013) by different parameters: Revenue, YoYgrowth, R&D, Capex, Gross profit, Gross Margin, Net Income etc.
o M&As data update and different scenarios for OSATs for 2019-2025
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8
KEY FEATURES OF THIS REPORT
• Advanced packaging market overview
• Drivers and dynamics
• Future applications
• Disruptions and opportunities• Technology trends and forecasts
• Revenue, wafer and unit forecasts by platform
• Future development by platform
• Impact of front-end scaling
• Scaling and functional roadmaps• Supply chain analysis
• Overview of production by player (IDM, OSAT, foundry)
• Shifting business models
• Financial analysis of TOP 25 OSATs
The “Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry” is a yearly overview report. The objectives of thereport are as follows:
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
9
In 2019, the advanced packaging team of Semiconductor, Memory and Computing Division
at Yole Développement started “Advanced Packaging Monitor” activity, to allow quarterly
update and deeper focus on these segments
The main objectives of this monitor are the following:
o Near-term market dynamics on quarterly basis
o Long-term market dynamics for 2019-2025
o CapEx & Capacity per major players
o Market share of major OSAT/Foundry players
o Package ASP per given market/platform
o Device/application adoption for advanced packaging technologies
WHAT’S NEW FROM THE ADVANCED PACKAGING TEAM?
Advanced Packaging Monitors
Start of Advanced Packaging Monitors with quarterly update.
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
10©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018
SYSTEM INTEGRATION LEVELS
iPhone 6
LEVEL 3:
End
Device/Equipment
LEVEL 2:
Device/Equipment
Board
iPhone 6 PCB
Qorvo RF SiP
in the iPhone 6s Plus
LEVEL 1:
Semiconductor
Packaging
LEVEL 0:
Semiconductor
Die/Wafer
Power amplifier in
Qorvo RF SiPSemiconductor
wafer
LEVEL 1+2:
Semiconductor Package + Board
Semiconductor
package
Board (PCB)
Si dies
Package Substrate
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
11©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018
PACKAGING FAMILIES PLATFORMS
No substrate
Fan-Out WLCSP
Organic substrates
Wirebond
BGA CSP
COB
BOC
WB CSP
LGA
Flip-Chip
BGA
FC BGA
FO on Substrate
2.5D
2.1D
CSP LGA
Leadframe substrates
Wire Bond
QFN/QFP
SOIC
TSOP
LCC
DIP
Flip Chip
FC QFN (MIS)
Ceramic substrates
Wirebond
Hi Rel
Flip-Chip
HTCC
LTCC
Embedded Die
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
12©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018
ADVANCED PACKAGING PLATFORMS
No substrate
Fan-Out WLCSP
Organic substrates
Wirebond
BGA CSP
COB
BOC
WB CSP
LGA
Flip-Chip
BGA
FC BGA
FO on Substrate
2.5/2.1D
3D
CSP LGA
Leadframe substrates
Wire Bond
QFN/QFP
SOIC
TSOP
LCC
DIP
Flip Chip
FC QFN (MIS)
Ceramic substrates
Wirebond
Hi Rel
Flip-Chip
HTCC
LTCC
Embedded Die
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
13©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018
ADVANCED PACKAGING PLATFORMS –Classification at System Integration Levels
Wafer level Substrate/Strip level (Panel based) Panel level
Level 1 - Die
Interconnection
Substrate/
leadframe
Level 2 -
Packaging
Module
Level 3 -
No SMT needed
SiP/PoP, etc.
ED in PCB/Flex
ED in
laminate
Organic/
glass
substrate
etc.
Standard organic substrate
Flip chip Wire-bond RDL
FIWLP FOWLP 3DFOPLP
Silicon/
glass
bridge
Bump/
pillar
TSV/
TGV
Ceramic/
leadframe
and others
Advanced
organic
substrate
Mold
embeddingOrganic interposer
FC
WB
CSP
BGA Standard
BGA Advanced
LGA
BGA
LGA
CSP
*Lv=level
Organic substrate Ceramic/
leadframe
and others
FC WB
Conventional wire-bond based SiP
is not covered in this report
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
1414
GLOBAL ECONOMY OUTLOOK
-12
-6
0
6
12
1871 1901 1931 1961 1991 2021
GDP growth Per capita GDP growth
The world economy will likely go into recession in
2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic which has
delivered an enormous global shock, leading to
steep recessions in many countries.
COVID-19 is expected to result in a 5.2 percent
contraction in global GDP in 2020—despite
unprecedented policy support.
Per capita income will drop by 6.2%, which will
have adverse impact on the semiconductor market.
However, the global economy is expected to strongly
rebound in 2021, with global GDP growth of
4.2%
Per capital income is forecasted to increase by
3.1% in 2021 Source: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
1515
SEMICONDUCTOR BUSINESS OUTLOOK
• After 2 successive high growth years, global semiconductor market growth decline 12% YoY to reach ~$412B in 2019.
The decline is attributed to the cyclicality in product pricing, sluggish phone demand and global trade unrest.
According to Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), annual sales declined across all regions: Europe (-7.3%), China
(-8.7%), Asia Pacific/All Other (-9.0%), Japan (-10.0%), and the Americas (-23.8%).
• In 2020, the semiconductor business will witness another slow down due to COVID-19 pandemic adverse impact on
economy. and we expect it’ll show negative growth rate ( -3% YoY). However, in 2021, market expected to strongly
recover and grow at 15% YoY
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
Semiconductor
industry
growth
declined 12%
YoY to reach
~$412B in
2019. Market
expected to
slowdown in
2020 due to
COVID-19
pandemic.
1616
MEMORY CRITICAL TO SEMICONDUCTOR BUSINESS
Memory market which decreased -34% YoY in 2019 is expected to grow by 17% in 2020, despite the global downturn.
• Memory industry is very critical to the growth of global semiconductor market. In 2019, the combined revenues
for stand-alone NAND and DRAM (~$156B) is almost ¼ th of the semiconductor market.
• Memory market which decreased -34% YoY in 2019 is expected to grow by 17% in 2020, despite the global
downturn. Memory demand driven by important megatrends, including mobility, cloud computing, artificial
intelligence (AI), and the internet of things (IoT).
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
1717Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
DIGITAL SOCIETY: NEW TRENDS & MARKET DRIVERS
RobotSmart AugmentationPC Mobile
ImagingCamera
Smart speaker
Smart camera
Wearables
Companion robotOlfactometry
Smelling
Motion sensing
Holographic interaction
Augmented human
Robot home
PC
Audio
Mobile
Speaker
Smart hearables
Smart assistantSmartwatch
Smart TV
Smartwatch
SMARTPHONE
+ Accelerator + NeuromorphicApplication processorStandalone CPU, GPU,memory and connectivity
SMARTPHONE
SMARTPHONE
>20302000 2010 2020
1818Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP: FROM NANO-SCALE TO MICRO-SCALE..
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Assumed
Moore’s Law
Stacked Die
µBump Pitch (μm)
Die to Substrate
FC Bump Pitch (μm)
Substrate to Board
BGA Ball Pitch (μm)
22nm 14nm 10nm 7nm
28nm 14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm
20nm 16nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm
20nm 14nm (licensed) Stopped
Adva
nce
d N
odes
Adva
nce
d P
ackag
ing*
16/14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm
200 to 150 μm 150 to 80 μm 60 to 40 μm <40 μm
400/350 μm 300 μm
Advanced Packaging is essential to bridge the scale-gap between Die and PCBIndustry is looking into the growing importance of functional roadmap
Average trends based on technologies and industry expectation
*Minimum dimension
2nm
95 to 48 μm 44 to 20 μm 20 to 10 μm
2nm
5nm
1919Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
ADVANCED PACKAGING ROADMAP AND TECHNOLOGIES OVERVIEW
2020Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
VOLUME PRODUCTION ROADMAP
21©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018
ADVANCED PACKAGING MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION 2014-2025
Advanced Packaging revenue will almost equal to the traditional packaging revenue by 2024
In 2019, the AP market share was 42.6%. Due to strong momentum in AP market driven by mega trends, the share of
AP in the total semiconductor market is increasing continuously and it’ll reach almost 50% market by 2025.
In 2014, AP market share was 38% and there is strong possibility that in 2026, AP market share will exceed that of the
traditional packaging.Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
22©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018
ADVANCED PACKAGING REVENUE FORECAST 2019-2025
• The advanced packaging market was
~$XXB in 2019. It is expected to grow
at ~ 6.6% CAGR (2019-2025) to reach
~$XXB in 2025.
• Due to Covid-19 impact, AP market is
expected to decrease by 6.8% YoY in
2020. However, total AP market
rebound in 2021 with ~14% YoY
growth.
• Highest Revenue CAGR expected from
3D stacking, Fan-out and ED (in
laminate substrate), 21.3%, 16% and
18%, respectively, as high-volume
products further penetrate the market -
• FO in mobile, networking,
automotive;
• 3D stacking in AI/ML, HPC, data
centers, CIS, 3D NAND;
• ED in automotive and mobile
• NOTE:
• Values represent packaging services (assembly and test) and do not include FEOL Si die processing
• This 3D stacking category includes packaging revenue from high end (3D TSV memory, 2.5D interposer, 3D SoC, Foveros & Co-
EMIB), middle end (CIS & 3D NAND) and low end (MEMS/sensors)
• TSV is represented separately in the graph for visualization/comparison purposes as the high end of TSV is represented in FC
and some low end TSV is part of Fan-in. So, the different AP numbers don’t add to the total.
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
23©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018
ADVANCED PACKAGING WAFER FORECAST
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24©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018
ADVANCED PACKAGING 2019 WAFER SPLIT BY MANUFACTURER
TEN players which includes 2 IDMs (Intel, Samsung), a foundry (TSMC), the top 5 global OSATs (ASE, SPIL, Amkor, PTI, JCET) together with Nepes and Chipbondprocess approximately 75% of advanced packaging wafers.
NOTE:
• This pie chart represents superpositions of all advanced packaging platforms (Fan-In/Fan-Out WLP, Flip Chip including 2.5D/3D and
Embedded die
• Flip Chip values are entered as total capacity, Fan-in, Fan out, 3D stacking and Embedded die as total production
• Flip Chip production values were not available per customer – global utilization is at ~85-90% of capacity
©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018Status of Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2020
25
FINANCIAL OVERVIEW FOR TOP 25 OSATS
Revenue in 2019
Large OSATs were separated from the rest.
Top 8 OSATs continued the heavy investment in CapEx and R&D.
Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Sample | ©2020 | www.yole.fr
Top OSATs with heavy investments
were creating a disparity with the rest
of the pack.
Top 8 OSATs now include 3
manufacturers HQ in China.
UTAC maintained at 8th spot.
Companies in the tail are at a higher
risk if there is no differentiated
technology or IP for merger and
acquisition as an exit strategy.
**Note: SPIL included in ASE figures from 2019 onwards
Players not within the Top 8 ranking need to catch up.
Otherwise, they will risk getting acquired or incur loss in business.
TSMC rank between 3rd &4th
If counted separately, SPIL revenue in 2019 is $2.88B,
which will place it as 4th rank among global OSATs
26
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Sales Team
for more
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for more
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Fan-Out Packaging Technologies and Market 2020
Advanced Packaging Quarterly Market Monitor
System-in-Package Technology and Market Trends 2020
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YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
Yole Développement
27
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
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Sales Team
for more
information
Qualcomm QET5100M EnvelopeTracker Module with SEMCO’s
Embedded Die Packaging Technology
RF Front-End Module Comparison 2020 –Volume 2
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YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
System Plus Consulting
28About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2020
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