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The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 th June 2016 5 th August 2016
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Page 1: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

The UBI Banca GroupConsolidated Results as at 30th June 2016

5th August 2016

Page 2: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by Unione di Banche Italiane Spa ("UBI") for informational purposes only and for use in the presentation ofAugust 2016. It is not permitted to publish, transmit or otherwise reproduce this document, in whole or in part, in any format, to any third partywithout the express written consent of UBI and it is not permitted to alter, manipulate, obscure or take out of context any information set out inthe documentthe document.

The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein have not been independently verified and are subject to change withoutnotice. They have been obtained from, or are based upon, sources we believe to be reliable but UBI makes no representation (eitherexpressed or implied) or warranty on their completeness, timeliness or accuracy. Nothing contained in this document or expressed during thepresentation constitutes financial legal tax or other advice nor should any investment or any other decision be solely based on thispresentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decision be solely based on thisdocument.This document does not constitute a solicitation, offer, invitation or recommendation to purchase, subscribe or sell for any investmentinstruments, to effect any transaction, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.This document contains statements that are forward-looking: such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of UBI andare subject to significant risks and uncertainties These risks and uncertainties many of which are outside the control of UBI could cause theare subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the control of UBI, could cause theresults of UBI to differ materially from those set forth in such forward looking statements.Under no circumstances will UBI or its affiliates, representatives, directors, officers and employees have any liability whatsoever (in negligenceor otherwise) for any loss or damage howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection withthe document or the above mentioned presentation.For further information about the UBI Group, please refer to publicly available information, including Annual, Quarterly and Interim Reports.By receiving this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.Please be informed that some of the managers of UBI involved in the drawing up and in the presentation of data contained in this documenteither participated in a stock option plan and were therefore assigned stock of the company or possess stock of the bank otherwise acquired.The disclosure relating to shareholdings of top management is available in the annual reportsThe disclosure relating to shareholdings of top management is available in the annual reports.

Methodology

The “notes on the reclassified financial statements” contained in the periodic financial reports of the Group may be consulted for a fullercomprehension of the rules followed in preparing the reclassified financial statements.

2

Page 3: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

1H16 take-aways

Growth in performing exposures (“PEs”): +1.3% vs March ’16.Increase in lending market share to private sector (households, corporate and financialcompanies) net of bad loans at 5 7% (+3 bps vs Mar ’16)companies), net of bad loans at 5.7% (+3 bps vs Mar 16)

Decrease in deteriorated loans (“NPEs”) both in gross and net terms: vs March ’16respectively -1.6% - without any disposal -, and -12% thanks to higher provisions* also

d i 2019/2020 B i Plannounced in 2019/2020 Business Plan

Strong improvement in coverage up to 44.3% for NPEs and to 58.3% for Bad Loans(i l di it ff ) ti l 667 b d 584 b M ‘16(including write-offs), respectively +667 bps and +584 bps vs Mar ‘16

Further decrease of inflows from PEs to NPEs: -47.4% 1H16 vs 1H15F th d f i fl f th NPE t B d L 18 7% 1H16 1H15Further decrease of inflows from other NPEs to Bad Loans: -18.7% 1H16 vs 1H15

Increase in AuM and bancassurance (+2.3 bln/€ vs Dec. ‘15). UBI Pramerica’s marketh i t 2 7% 2 5% t D ’15share increases to 2.7% vs 2.5% as at Dec ’15.

95% of 2019/2020 Business Plan impacts already booked in 2Q16 (-835 mln/€ net)l di t l f th 1H16 i d f 787 l /€leading to a loss for the 1H16 period of -787 mln/€

Single Bank project well on track

3* o/w shortfall reabsorption for 851 mln/€

Page 4: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Sound capital base allows up-fronting of Business Plan impacts. CET1 growth in short/medium term already certain thanks to minorities inclusion and use of DTAs on shortfall (+0 7pp approx )inclusion and use of DTAs on shortfall (+0.7pp approx.)

CET 1 ratio PHASED IN (∆ bps)

Impacts in 2Q16 recognised for approx.p g pp-1,242 mln gross (or -835 mln/€ net of

taxes and non-controlling interests):• increase in LLPs of 851mln/€ (586 mln/€

net), relating to provisions alreadydeducted from the regulatory capital (thededucted from the regulatory capital (the“shortfall”)

• redundancy expenses of 324 mln/€ (208mln/€ net)

• impairment losses on brands of 63

It does NOT include positiveimpacts (approx. +70 bps)Including 95% of

• impairment losses on brands of 63mln/€ (38 mln/€ net) and first tranche ofSingle Bank Project costs of 5 mln/€ (3mln/€ net)

from recovery of DTA onhigher provisions (shortfallreabsorption) andrepurchase of minorities

CET 1 ratio (fully loaded) target*CET 1 ratio FULLY LOADED (∆ bps)Including 95% of

Business Plan costs

* 2019 and 2020 datapoints include neutralimpact from the combination of the following:new regulations (IFRS9, LGD default, etc.),

d t f th d l th i ff t

4For further detail please see annex 2

update of the models, other minor effects

Page 5: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Positive lending evolution: performing stocks at 74.6 bln/€: +1.1% vs March 2016 and +1.3% vs Dec2015, driven by improved demand for M/L term lending:

% /€1H2016 new origination up by 13.2% to 6.6 bln/€

84,586 84,073 83,907G th i l di k t h *

TOTAL NET LOAN BOOKGrowth in lending market share*

5 67% 5.69%5.73%

Dec ‘15 Mar ‘16 Jun ‘16Amounts in mln/€

765

5.67% 5.69%

Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

74,401 75,39574,898

INCREASE IN PERFORMING EXPOSURES +1.3% vs Mar ’16 +0.7% vs Dec‘15

73,664 73,850 74,630

1,234 551 65

o/w other Net Performing Exposures Progress in de-risking:

+1.1% vs Mar ’16 +1.3% vs Dec ‘15

o/w repos with CCG

73,664 73,850

Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

Performing Exposures

5.7% 5.9% 3.8% 3.9%

Low risk Medium risk High risk Unrated

g gperforming loan portfolio risk profile**

9,689 9,671

DECREASE IN NON PERFORMING EXPOSURES

58.3%73.6% 76.0% 76.4%

27.6%16.0% 15.8% 15.2%8.4% 4.5% 4.4% 4.5%

-12% vs Mar ’16 and -12.1% vs Dec ’15

mainly due to shortfall reabsorption

8,512

Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

Dec '12 Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

reabsorption

5

Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16

* Net of Bad Loans, referred to households, corporate and financial companies. Repos not included. Source: Bank of Italy and ABI monthly outlook** Perimeter: Network Banks + UBI Banca (IRB perimeter)

Page 6: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Gross NPEs: decreasing stocks and lower new inflows confirm improvement in credit qualityq y

FOCUS ON 1H2016 VS 1H2015€ mln

Lower deterioration of NPEs within the

stock

NPEs, net inflows from performing* NPEs, inflows from performing

1,275 -47.4%

Transfer to Bad Loans from other NPEs

671915

402

-56.1% 846644 524

-18.7%-23.9%

1H15 1H16 1H15 1H16 1H14 1H15 1H16

Gross NPEs

1 6%

Inflows from performing loans to NPEs

12,674 13,049 13,434 13,496 13,280

-1.6%

4,307 4,124-36.2%

-7.5%

-4.2%

10,958

Dec '12 Dec '13 Dec '14 Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

2,632 2,436

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

6

* Net inflows from performing = inflows from performing - outflows to performing

Page 7: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Relevant increase in coverage in 2Q16: +667 bps on NPEs, +584 on bad loans

B Including write-offs Stated

Coverage by type of NPEs…

…Changes vs Mar ‘16

52.25% 52.41%58.25%

46 66%

TOTAL NPEs coverage +584 bps

BAD

L

g

44.31%38.64% 38.97%

46.66%Including write-offs Stated

+667 bps

+769 bpsLOANS

37.20% 37.64%

27.88% 28.34%

35.90%Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

23 75%

Stated+756 bps

S

UNL

Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

16.71% 17.02% 23.75%

Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

+673 bpsLIKELY Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16

4.88% 3 64% 4.63%

Stated

+99 bps

Y

PAST

Impairment losses on NPEs (mln/€) 2Q15 2Q16

Quarterly LLPs 199 1,0513.64% 4.63%

Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

pT

DUE

o/w shortfall reabsorption - 851o/w ordinary LLPs 199 200

7

Page 8: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Ratio of NPEs on total loans down to 14.9% in gross terms and to 10.1% net of LLPs

% Incidence on total loans...

...in gross terms ...in net terms

84.7% 85.1%Mar '16

Jun '16

88.5% 89.9% Mar '16

Jun '16

8.1% 6.9%8.1% 6 6% 5 2% 6 0%4 6% 5 3%

14.9% 10.1%

8.1% 6.9%0.3%

8.1% 6.6%0.2%

Performing Bad loans Unlikely to pay

Past due

5.2% 6.0%0.3%4.6% 5.3%

0.2%

Performing Bad loans Unlikely to pay

Past due

Figures in mln/€

Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16 Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16 Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

Gross exposure Net exposure Impairment losses

Performing loans 75,314 74,814 75,806 74,898 74,401 75,395 417 412 411

Non performing exposures 13,434 13,496 13,280 9,689 9,671 8,512 3,746 3,825 4,768- Bad loans ("Sofferenze") 6,988 7,122 7,216 4,288 4,347 3,849 2,700 2,775 3,367

- “Unlikely to pay” loans 6,180 6,111 5,862 5,147 5,071 4,470 1,033 1,040 1,392

- Past due loans 267 263 203 254 254 194 13 10 9

Total loan book 88,748 88,310 89,086 84,586 84,073 83,907 4,162 4,237 5,179

8

Page 9: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Direct funding impacted by Business Plan strategy. Continued inflows into current accounts and deposits and progressive reduction of placement of retailcurrent accounts and deposits and progressive reduction of placement of retail bonds in view of bail-in rules

IAS t i bl €IAS amounts in bln€ Jun '15 Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

DIRECT FUNDING FROM ORDINARY CUSTOMERS 71.7 72.5 71.1 69.8

Current accounts and deposits 44 7 47 7 48 6 49 1

Confirmed inflows of current accounts and deposits both year on year and vs Dec 2015

Current accounts and deposits 44.7 47.7 48.6 49.1 Term deposits, other payables and repos 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 Securities in issue:

Bonds issued by Network banks + UBI 21.7 20.2 18.6 17.0Bonds distributed on Extra-captive customers* 3 2 2 8 1 8 1 8

AUM+Bancassurance: 1 8 bl M ‘16 Bonds distributed on Extra-captive customers 3.2 2.8 1.8 1.8

Other (mainly customer CDs) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3

DIRECT FUNDING FROM INSTITUTIONAL CUSTOMERS 22.6 19.0 18.5 17.7

• + 1.8 bln vs Mar ‘16(+3.7%)

• + 2.3 bln/€ vs Dec ’15 (+ 4.8%)

Covered Bonds 9.7 9.9 9.2 9.6EMTN 3.1 2.5 2.5 3.3CD and ECP 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.2Repos with CCG 9.1 6.1 6.2 4.7 Reopening of October

2015 issue for 250TOTAL DIRECT FUNDING 94.3 91.5 89.7 87.5

2015 issue for 250 mln/€ in Jun ‘16

New 750 mln/€ Tier 2 issued on 5th May

contributing to higher Total Capital Ratio

(14 47% vs 13 87%)

9* Bonds placed by Centrobanca on third party banks networks, expiring over time.

Subordinated bonds: ~3.3 bln/€ as at 30 June ’16 (of which 750 mln/€ on institutional investors) corresponding to only 3.7% of total direct funding

(14.47% vs 13.87%)For further detail please see annex 3

Page 10: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Net Financial Assets: going ahead with the downsizing and recomposition of the proprietary portfolio. In 2Q16 sold 1.5 bln/€ of Italian Govies, which now p p y p Q ,represent 81.9% of Financial Assets

Amounts in bln/€ IAS value Jun ‘15 Dec '15 Mar ‘16 Jun ‘16Amounts in bln/€, IAS value Jun 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16

Net Financial Assets 21.2 19.7 19.7 19.1

of which Italian govies* 20 4 18 3 17 7 16 2of which Italian govies 20.4 18.3 17.7 16.2

Govies / Financial Assets 93.6% 90.6% 87.1% 81.9%

Focus on the Italian Govies Portfolio

Target 2020 for Italian Gov. Bondsportfolio: 46% of Financial Assets

Focus on the Italian Govies Portfolio

Composition (bln/€) Maturity (bln/€)

0 8 0 4 0 2 0 13.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

17.7 16.2

3.5

AFS HFT HTM20.4 18.3

16.1 14.4 14.0 12.6

0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 HTMHFTAFS

8.80.1

0.0

Jun '15 Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

0.2 1.8 1.90.0

2016 2017 2018 2019 from 2020 and over

AFS reserve: -2.7 mln/€

* Nominal value: 18.1 bln/€ as at June ‘15, 15.8 bln/€ as at Dec ’15, ~15 bln/€ as at Mar ’16 and 13.6 bln/€ as at June ‘16

10

Page 11: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Confirmed sound liquidity position framework, with 12 bln/€ of unencumbered assets

Loan to Deposit ratio = 95.9% NSFR and LCR > 1

u e cu be ed assets

Total eligible assets at 27 bln/€ ~55% of current accounts and deposits...Total eligible assets at 27 bln/€, ~55% of current accounts and depositsEligible Assets

27 bln/€(net of haircut,

as at 30th June 2016))

Composition (%) Usage (bln/€)

18% Pledged to ECB*

60%

4%

18%

Italian GoviesUnencumbered

CCG Repos5

10

Italian GoviesRetained securitisationsRetained covered bondsOther (ABACO)

12

11* TLTRO for 8.1 bln/€ (expiring Sept 2018) reimbursed and replaced with 10 bln/€ TLTRO 2, value date 29 June 2016

Page 12: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Over 95% of one-off costs relating to the simplification in the baselineorganisational structure of the Group and to the Business Plan recognisedi 2Q16 tin 2Q16 accounts

2Q16 ONE-OFF INCOME STATEMENT IMPACTS – €M

Net Impact

Tax and minorities Impact

Gross Impact

407835 1,242

Shortfallreabsorption 265586 851

407 835 1,242

Redundancyfund 116208 324 DTAs resulting from the use of the shortfall will represent afund

contribution116208 324

2538

DTAs resulting from the use of the shortfall will represent apositive component of CET1 when profits are earned startingfrom 2017, with an estimated impact of approx. +40 bps

Single Bank operation:63

23

BrandsWrite-off

Single Bank operation: 5 mln/€ booked in 2Q16. The remaining amount, approx. 40

mln/€, will be booked in 2H16, according to the accrual criteria the increase in capital linked to the repurchase of minority

interests will be fully eligible for inclusion in CET1 capital withSingle Bank

projectexpenses

5

interests will be fully eligible for inclusion in CET1 capital, withan estimated impact of approx. +30 bps

12

Page 13: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

P&L isolating Business Plan impacts

Figures in € mln 1H15 1H16% change1H16 vs

1H152Q15 1Q16 2Q16

% change2Q16 vs

2Q15

% change2Q16 vs

1Q16

Net interest income 847 766 (9.6%) 417 388 378 (9.3%) (2.5%)

Net commission income 669 667 (0.2%) 328 337 330 0.7% (2.0%)

N l f fi 111 83 (25 7%) 3 16 6 26 0%Net result from finance 111 83 (25.7%) 53 16 67 26.0% n.s.

Profits of equity-accounted investees 20 12 (38.9%) 13 5 7 (50.0%) 27.5%

Other income items 62 61 (1.9%) 32 27 34 5.1% 23.5%

Operating income 1,709 1,588 (7.1%) 843 773 815 (3.3%) 5.5%

St ff t (655) (639) (2 4%) (320) (320) (319) (0 2%) (0 1%)Staff costs (655) (639) (2.4%) (320) (320) (319) (0.2%) (0.1%)

Other administrative expenses (313) (327) 4.6% (165) (172) (156) (5.8%) (9.5%)

Net impairment losses on property, equipment and investment property and intangible assets (78) (72) (7.8%) (39) (36) (36) (9.1%) (1.0%)

Operating expenses (1,046) (1,038) (0.7%) (524) (528) (511) (2.6%) (3.2%)

Net operating income 663 550 (17.1%) 319 245 305 (4.3%) 24.3%

Net impairment losses on loans (389) (355) (8.6%) (199) (155) (200) 0.6% 28.8%

Net impairment losses on other financial assets and liabilities (3) (50) n.s. (2) 0 (51) n.s. n.s.

N t i i f i k d h (29) (27) (8 5%) (25) (6) (20) (18 2%) n s

Change in profit 1H16

vs 1H15 mainly due toNet provisions for risks and charges (29) (27) (8.5%) (25) (6) (20) (18.2%) n.s.

Profits (losses) from disposal of equity investments 0 2 n.s. 0 0 1 n.s. n.s.

Pre-tax profit from continuing operations 242 119 (50.7%) 93 84 35 (62.4%) (58.4%)

Taxes on income for the period from continuing operations (99) (58) n.s. (37) (34) (23) (37.5%) (32.4%)

decrease in net

interest income but

also to “one-off” netoperationsProfits/losses for the period attributable to non-controlling interests (17) (14) n.s. (7) (7) (6) (15.0%) (15.5%)

Profit for the period before Business Plan impacts 126 48 (61.7%) 49 43 6 (88.5%) (86.9%)

Net impairment losses on loans with shortfall (586) n s (586) n s n s

impairment losses on

financial instruments*

(-43.4 mln/€ net) andNet impairment losses on loans with shortfall - (586) n.s. - - (586) n.s. n.s.

Charges for exit incentives (1) (208) n.s. - (0) (207) n.s. n.s.

Brands impairment - (38) n.s. - - (38) n.s. n.s.

Charges for Single Bank project - (3) n.s. - - (3) n.s. n.s.

Profit (loss) for the period 124 (787) n.s. 49 42 (829) n.s. n.s.

to lower trading gains

(approx. -20 mln/€ net)

13

2019/2020 Business Plan impacts

*virtual elimination of residual credit risk connected with financial instruments resulting from non-performing loan positions

Page 14: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

1H2016 vs 1H2015: 50% of NII drop due to the reduction in the Italian Govies portfolio

9.6%-9.6%

Net Interest Income half yearly trend (€ mln)

Securities portfolio contribution down by approx 40 mln/€ in 1H16 vs 1H15

following the progressive downsizing of the Italian Govies portfolio (-4.4 bln/€

) i d ith th d ti

151 112 NII from Financial Assets & Interbank Exposure

766847

yoy), in accordance with the reduction and recomposition strategy confirmed in

the 2019/2020 Business Plan 696 653 NII from Business with

Customers

Contribution of business with customers down by approx. 40 mln/€Customer spread compression (-15 bps in 1H2016 and -6 bps in 2Q16),

mainly due to lower mark up on short

1H15 1H16

Avg 1 Month Euribor (in bps) -2 -31

417431 388 378

mainly due to lower mark up on short term lending and notwithstanding a decrease in more costly medium to

long term funding

A f 2H16 l t f t il

Net Interest Income quarterly trend (€ mln)

352 344 331 322

79 73 57 55 NII from Financial Assets & Interbank Exposure

NII from Business with

As from 2H16, placement of retail bonds will decrease in relation to

new bail-in rules, replaced by a term deposit offer,

allowing for a significant331 322

1Q15 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16

NII from Business with Customers

A 1 M th E ib (i b ) 0 5 3526

allowing for a significant improvement of funding costs

14

Avg 1 Month Euribor (in bps) 0 -5 -35-26

For further detail please see annex 4

Page 15: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Net Commission Income stable thanks to the good progress of assetmanagement: 57% of net commission income related to Mgmt, trading andadvisory services

MANAGEMENT, TRADING AND ADVISORY SERVICES(€ mln)

192 179 192 186TOTAL NET COMMISSION INCOME

1Q15 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16341 328 337 330

+0.6%2.1%-2.1%

Up-front fees

O t t l

1Q15 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16 BANKING RELATED COMMISSIONS*

52 40 59 49On total net fees

150 151 146 144

15% 12% 18% 15%

1Q15 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16

* Includes FX negotiations15For further detail please see annex 5

Page 16: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

AuM and Bancassurance products up by 3.5% and 4.3% respectively vsMarch ’16March 16

INDIRECT FUNDING EVOLUTION

bln/€ Dec '15 Mar '16 June '16 % change vs Mar '16

% change vs Dec '15

AuM 34.1 34.1 35.3 3.5% 3.3%Bancassurance 14.4 15.0 15.7 4.3% 8.4%AuC 31.0 28.5 27.2 -4.6% -12.3%

Performance effect -3bln/€ in

the period

Total Indirect Funding 79.5 77.6 78.1 0.7% -1.8%

the period Dec’15 - Jun‘16

47% 48% 49% FY15

UBI PRAMERICA SGR AuM composition

47%

27%

12% 10%

48%

28%

10% 10%

49%

27%

10% 12%

FY15

Mar '16

June '16

% 10%4%

10% 10%4%

10% 12%3%

Bond Balanced Equity Flexible Cash

16

Page 17: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Operating costs confirm downward trend (€ mln) 1 045

TOTAL OPERATING

(€ mln)

32 521 528 511524

1,045 1,0391H

1Q16: ordinary contribution to ResolutionFund of 32 mln/€

OPERATING COSTS

1Q15 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16

335 320 320 319

1H 655 639-2.4%

OF WHICH:

Continuous drop in staff costs thanks tolower staff numbers (in average terms, -319resources compared to 1H15) and to lowerlabour costs (staff turnover after voluntary

1Q15 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16

STAFF COSTS( y

exits, part time, etc…) Further reduction of staff costs expected in

the course of the recently launched BusinessPlan (redundancy costs for approx 1,300voluntary exits already booked in a separate

148 165 172 155

313 327+4.6%

32

1HOTHER ADM. EXPENSES

y y pline in 2Q2016 accounts)

Change in Administrative expensesinfluenced by the inclusion in 2016 of theordinary contribution to the Resolution Fund

1Q15 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16

32EXPENSES y(32 mln/€)*. Net of this contribution, OtherAdministrative expenses drop by 5.6% yoythanks to the decrease in almost all expenseitems

D&A 38 39 36 36

78 72-7.8%

Decrease in D&A due to lower amortization ofIT and Real Estate

1H

17

1Q15 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16

* In 2Q2015, the estimated contribution to the Resolution Fund, 22.8 mln/€ (13.2 net of tax and non controlling interest) was booked in the item “provisions for risks and charges”For further detail please see annex 6

Page 18: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Outlook for ordinary operations (net of non recurring items)

In consideration of the level of current market interest rates, expected to remain stable in comingmonths, net interest income will benefit in the second half of 2016 from a progressive action to

f fchange the mix of retail direct funding towards the less costly short-term component, and itcould improve if the recent recovery in volumes of lending continues

Net fee and commission income is forecast to continue to benefit in 2016 from the process toNet fee and commission income is forecast to continue to benefit in 2016 from the process tochange the mix of total funding in favour of assets under management and, to a lesser extent,also from the gradual recovery in lending to customers

f f The context on financial markets will still be one of persistent volatility and could limit opportunitiesfor profit-taking on positive fair value reserves relating to the securities portfolio, compared with thatachieved in the first half

The continuous optimisation of other administrative expenses and the trade union agreement signedat the end of last year should make it possible to contain operating expenses, net of non-recurring items, in line with 2015, notwithstanding the increase in costs relating to the contribution

S G Sto the Single Resolution Fund and the Deposit Guarantee Scheme

The particularly low risk attaching to the performing portfolio and the continuation of the reductionin inflows of new non-performing exposures, should confirm an expected further reduction inin inflows of new non performing exposures, should confirm an expected further reduction inloan losses in the second half of 2016 compared with the same period in 2015, in accordancewith the 2019-2020 Business Plan

18

Page 19: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Annexes

19

Page 20: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Main Reclassified Balance Sheet ItemsAnnex 1

Financial assets (AFS, HFT, FV, HTM) 21,870 20,239 20,306 19,741 -9.7% -2.8%

30.06.2016 % annual change

% quarterly change31.12.2015 31.03.201630.06.2015MAIN ASSETS ITEMS

Figures in millions of euro

Loans to customers 85,340 84,586 84,073 83,907 -1.7% -0.2%

Property, equipment and investment property 1,756 1,744 1,674 1,660 -5.5% -0.8%

Intangible assets 1,760 1,757 1,747 1,685 -4.3% -3.5%

of which: goodwill 1,465 1,465 1,465 1,465 0.0% 0.0%

Tax assets 2,753 2,815 2,790 3,007 9.2% 7.7%

Other assets 1,435 1,172 895 1,081 -24.6% 20.8%

Total assets 119,454 117,201 116,689 116,660 -2.3% 0.0%

30.06.2016 % quarterly h

% annual h31.12.2015 31.03.201630.06.2015MAIN LIABILITIES AND EQUITY ITEMS

Net interbank position* 5,858 6,960 7,904 9,761 66.6% 23.5%

Due to customers 55,331 55,264 56,528 55,460 0.2% -1.9%

30.06.2016 changechange31.12.2015 31.03.201630.06.2015Figures in millions of euro

Securities issued 38,996 36,248 33,125 32,065 -17.8% -3.2%

Tax liabilities 441 473 427 242 -45.2% -43.5%

Net worth attributable to the Parent 9,762 9,865 9,878 9,629 -1.4% -2.5%

Non-controlling interests 549 536 514 476 -13.3% -7.5%

Profit for the period 124 117 42 (787) ns ns

Total liabilities and equity 119,454 117,201 116,689 116,660 -2.3% 0.0%

20* Including €8.1 bln TLTRO1 replaced with € 10 bln TLTRO 2 taken in June ‘16

Page 21: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Annex 2Capital Ratios (Phased in, Basel 3) as at Jun ‘16: Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio at 11.43%, Total Capital Ratio at 14.47%

mln/€ Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

Risk weighted assets 61 344 9 60 780 6 61 665 4

mln/€ Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (before filters and transitional provisions) 8,182.0 8,127.4 6,892.5

Transitional provisions (minority interest) 176 6 115 8 117 8 Risk weighted assets 61,344.9 60,780.6 61,665.4

Total prudential requirements

Credit risk 4,536.7 4,523.1 4,577.5CVA (Credit Value Adjustment) risk 15.5 18.2 17.7

Transitional provisions (minority interest) 176.6 115.8 117.8Transitional provisions (AFS Reserves) -59.1 -42.5 -40.9Transitional provisions (loss of the period) 18.3Transitional provisions (DTA) 91.1Common Equity Tier 1 Capital filters -3.1 -5.1 -4.6Italian Govies filters -191 0 -105 4 29 5 ( j )

Market risk 78.8 44.5 60.0Operational risk 276.7 276.7 278.1

Italian Govies filters 191.0 105.4 29.5

Common Equity Tier 1 (after filters) 8,105.4 8,090.1 7,103.9

Common Equity Tier 1 regulatory adjustments: negative elements for deduction excess of expected losses over -696.5 -754.4 -57.3impairment losses

Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1) 7,408.9 7,335.8 7,046.6

Additional Tier 1 before deductions 38.9 38.9 37.4Additional Tier 1 regulatory adjustments: negative CET 1 PHASED IN TOTAL CAPITAL

PHASED INTOTAL CAPITAL

PHASED INelements for deduction excess of expected losses over impairment losses

-38.9 -38.9 -19.1

Additional Tier 1 - - -

Tier 1 Capital 7,408.9 7,335.8 7,046.6 13 87% 14.47%

PHASED IN PHASED IN

12 08% 13.93%Tier 2 Capital before transitional provisions 1,443.5 1,287.2 1,889.3Tier 2 instruments grandfathering - - -

Tier 2 Capital after transitional provisions 1,443.5 1,287.2 1,889.3Tier 2 capital regulatory adjustments -307.3 -191.9 -13.9

12.07% 11.43%13.87%12.08% 13.93%

of which: negative elements for deduction excess of expected losses over impairment losses

-315.2 -198.3 -19.1

Tier 2 Capital 1,136.1 1,095.3 1,875.4

TOTAL OWN FUNDS 8 545 0 8 431 0 8 922 0

Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16 Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16

21

TOTAL OWN FUNDS 8,545.0 8,431.0 8,922.0

Page 22: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Bond maturities well planned and distributed over timeAnnex 3

New issuancesDecreasing spreads vs. 6M Euribor (bps)

RETA

Maturities profile(Nominal amounts in € bln, net of bond repurchases)

AIL

B

150 12695

56 65 3.875.53 4.64

4Q163Q16

2Q16 matured

9.402.271.342.09

ONDS FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H16

0.87

2017 2018 2019 2020 and following

2016

1Q16 matured 3.70

INST

Maturities profile(Nominal amounts in € bln)T

ITUTI

EMTN COVERED BONDS**In 1H16, 0.1 bln/€ EMTN expired*, whilstat the end of April 2016, a subordinatedTier 2 issue was launched and highlysuccessfully placed

(Nominal amounts in € bln)

5 611 80COVEREDIONAL

successfully placed

- amount: 750 mln/€

- maturity: 10 years(callable after 5 years)

5.611.804Q16

3Q16

0.03

1.00

COVERED BONDS

BOND

- coupon: 4.25%(spread of 4.182% over the swap rate) 0.97 0.46 1.00

1.050.05

1.05

2017 2018 2019 2020 and

0.78

2016

2Q16 matured

1Q16 matured

0.03

0.74

22* In 2016, a further 0.07 bln/€ expected to mature in 4Q** Inclusive of original 0.5 bln/€ of private placement with BEI expiring within 2022. Retained issues not included

S following

Page 23: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Net Interest Income – Consolidated Customer Spread DetailsAnnex 4

CUSTOMER SPREADS

in bps on avg. STOCK* 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

1M Euribor 0 -5 -9 -15 -26 -35

Mark up vs 1M Euribor 275 269 259 256 260 258Short term 323 308 293 283 280 275M di l t 262 259 251 250 255 254Medium-long term 262 259 251 250 255 254

Mark down vs 1M Euribor -89 -86 -85 -84 -87 -91

Sight deposits -16 -18 -19 -24 -35 -43Term deposits -112 -89 -94 -81 -87 -87Term deposits -112 -89 -94 -81 -87 -87Retail bonds -136 -129 -124 -125 -130 -130Institutional bonds -186 -187 -187 -174 -165 -162

UBI Group - Customer spread 186 183 174 172 173 167UBI Group - Customer spread 186 183 174 172 173 167

of whichUBI Network Banks cust. spread 201 196 190 185 181 176

23* Average period data referred to the whole consolidated Group (Network banks+ Product companies + UBI)

Page 24: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Detail of Net Commission Income at 330 mln/€Annex 5

Net Commission Income (€ mln) 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

MANAGEMENT, TRADING & ADVISORY SERVICES 192 177 149 181 192 186

of which:

Portfolio management 77 80 75 98 75 78

Placement of securities 68 53 35 33 67 60

Third party services distribution 46 45 39 49 49 47

BANKING RELATED COMMISSIONS* 150 151 151 150 146 144

of which:

Guarantees (banking activity) 14 11 10 10 13 10( g y)

Collection and payment services 27 29 27 29 24 26

Services for factoring transactions 4 4 4 4 4 3

Current accounts management 46 48 49 51 44 46

Other services 57 57 59 54 59 56Other services 57 57 59 54 59 56

TOTAL NET COMMISSION INCOME 341 328 300 331 337 330

of whichof which

UP-FRONT FEES** 52 40 27 28 59 49as a % on total net commission income 15% 12% 9% 8% 18% 15%

24* Includes FX negotiations.** Funds&sicav, insurance products, other third party products

Page 25: The UBI Banca Group Consolidated Results as at 30 June 2016 · 2019-11-21 · presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other

Strong track record in cost management from 2007 to 2015, confirmed in 2016(Amounts net of non-recurring items)

Annex 6

(€ mln, net of PPA)TOTAL OPERATING COSTS

Inclusive of new ordinarycontribution to Resolution Fundand Deposit Guarantee Schemeand Deposit Guarantee Scheme

2,5992,069 2,102

1,038

FY07 FY15 FY15 1H16

STAFF COSTS OTHER ADM. EXPENSES(€ mln) (€ mln) Inclusive of new ordinary

FY07 FY15 FY15 1H16

1,590 1,295

639

contribution to Resolution Fundand Deposit Guarantee Scheme

765621 654

327639

FY07 FY15 1H16

327

FY07 FY15 FY15 1H16

STAFF HEADCOUNTS NUMBER OF DOMESTIC BRANCHES

21,700 1,970

17,716 17,590

1st Apr '07 Dec '15 Jun '16

1,970 1,554 1,531

1st Apr '07 Dec '15 Jun '16

Note: staff headcounts at the end of the period

1st Apr 07 Dec 15 Jun 16 1st Apr 07 Dec 15 Jun 16

25


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