Thukela Water Project Feasibility Study - dwa.gov.za Feasibility... · Thukela Water Project...

Thukela Water Project

FeasibilityStudy

Environmental FeasibilitySummary Report

Volume 1

March 2001

PB V000-00-6200

Republic of South Africa

Department of Water Affairs and Forestry

Prepared by the:

TWP Feasibility Study

Project Management Team

c/o PO Box 3173PRETORIA

0001

Tel: (012) 421-3873

Fax: (012) 421-3895

VB39_2001

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

THUKELA WATER PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY

ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDYSUMMARY REPORT

March 2001

Prepared by: Thukela Water Project Management Teamc/o BKS Water DivisionPO Box 3173PRETORIA0001

For: The DirectorDirectorate Project PlanningDepartment of Water Affairs and ForestryPrivate Bag X313PRETORIA0001

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________THUKELA WATER PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY

ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTi

This report is to be referred in bibliographies as:

Department of Water Affairs and Forestry, South Africa. 2001. Thukela Water Project(TWP) Feasibility Study. Environmental Feasibility Study Summary Report. Preparedby the TWP Project Management Team, as part of the TWP Feasibility Study. DWAFReport No. PBV000-00-6200.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTii

STRUCTURE OF REPORTS

MAI

N R

EPO

RT

MO

DU

LE R

EPO

RTS

SUPP

OR

TIN

G D

OC

UM

ENTA

TIO

N

FEASIBILITY REPORT

PB V000-00-9700

SUMMARY

PB V000-00-9600

ENGINEERING REPORT

PB V000-00-3199

WATER RESOURCES REPORT

PB V000-00-5599

ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT

PB V000-00-6200

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL VIABILITY REPORT PB V000-00-9100

- Geology- Design Criteria- Klip vs Jana site selection- Flood Hydrology- Dam type selection- Outlet works- Spillways- Pump stations- Aqueducts- Access Roads- Labour-enhanced construction - Resource based costing- Review Panel Reports

EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF WATER FOR LADYSMITH-EMNAMBITHI

PB V000-00-6099

PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT PROGRAMMEPB V000-00-8900

DECISION REGISTER & ARCHIVING BIBLIOGRAPHYPB V000-00-9000

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

PB V000-00-8799

LEGAL, INSTITUTIONAL & HYDROPOLITICAL ASPECTSPB V000-00-9900

- System Model- Klip vs Jana yield curves- Water resources evaluation report

Background Document & Environmental Issues Report

BASELINE STUDIES- Lake environments- Plant diversity- Faunal diversity- Natural Resource utilization- Tourism- Visual impact- Cultural history- Archaeological- Human health- Vaal River receiving environment- Hydrology- Geomorphology- Downstream impacts- Migration

Social Impact Assessment

Instream Flow, Estuarine Freshwater Requirements & Reserve Considerations

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTiii

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This final summary report of the Environmental Feasibility Investigation for the ThukelaWater Project, is the last distillation and explanation of what are considered to besome of the key aspects and core information, that impacts on the environmentalfeasibility of the project. All this data and information was gathered and compiled overa period of two years or more, and to say that the strategic scope and physical extentof the issues that had to be considered, was far-reaching, would not be anoverstatement.

Such a task cannot be fulfilled by one person and it is therefore fitting that certainindividuals are acknowledged who contributed in a fundamental way to ensure that theoperation could be completed.

The TWP Project Management Team, who prepared this summary report, wish toacknowledge the work of the staff of the Institute of Natural Resources inPietermaritzburg. It was their responsibility to collect and format the inputs of all thespecialists who had been engaged to complete the baseline studies. This summaryreport is based on a first environmental feasibility report (Volume 2) produced by theINR, from the specialist baseline studies commissioned on behalf of the TWP. Thework and inputs of Mesdames Jenny Mander and Fonda Lewis and Mr Dave Cox musttherefore be acknowledged.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTvi

SUMMARY

There was nothing that was found in the investigation of the environmental feasibility ofthe TWP, that would clearly indicate that the project should immediately be abandonedor that there was high risk in proceeding with it to the next phases of environmentalassessment, planning, design and implementation. What was found, was that thereare indications of some fairly serious and significant factors which should beinvestigated in much more detail, from an environmental perspective, before the finaldecision is made to proceed with implementation of the project.

The TWP is a very large and complex development project, originating from policylevel decisions within the national government. These policies relate not only tostrategic water supply but also job creation, land reform, economic empowerment ofpreviously disadvantaged people, elimination of discrimination and establishment ofequity in natural resource utilisation also have to be considered. The project will haveprofound effects at different levels and in many different ways over a long period oftime, and will directly affect the quality of life of large numbers of people. There is thusa very specific onus on the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry to ensure thatthese environmental considerations are accorded appropriate attention and respect inthe administrative processes and planning activities supporting the project.

The environmental feasibility of the TWP has been assessed at three levels:

• national strategic policy level;• regional development level;• site specific level.

The TWP the following factors were found to be of particular importance.

National policy level

• The Reserve for the Thukela River and its tributaries is not yet determined.• A formal strategy for the management of the water resources of the Thukela River,

as part of a national water resource strategy, has still to be established.• If a decision was made not to augment the water supplies from the Vaal River

System, it is highly probable that a slump in the national economy could occurprimarily as a result of water shortages. There would be job losses and increasinglevels of unemployment, increased inflation, reduction in disposable incomes, anda shortage of funds (through taxes) for national development initiatives.

• Implementation of the TWP could result in increased political tension betweenNational, Provincial and local government unless appropriate liaison takes place.

• International and domestic pressure relating to the construction of large dams maybe brought to bear on DWAF specifically, and the Government in general, thatmight postpone or even stop the implementation of the TWP.

• Issues around the effects of AIDS are not yet fully understood.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTvii

Regional level

• A comprehensive understanding of the sedimentological processes in the ThukelaRiver, their cause and effect, is essential and of fundamental importance to a fullunderstanding of the feasibility of the TWP. In this study, work on the subject wasstarted but much still remains to be done.

• The TWP presents a notable opportunity to stimulate and kick start considerabledevelopment and economic empowerment in the uThukela Region. However, thisis unlikely to occur if comprehensive regional development plans and integratedstrategic plans and spatial planning for regional and local government structuresare not drawn up and implemented. To do this effectively, will require proactiveparticipation within the TWP institutional framework, to take a lead and accept jointresponsibility in social upliftment programmes. This must involve othergovernment departments, and the TWP must participate in, fund and facilitatewhat is in effect co-operative governance programme. This will need an urgentand strategic policy decision from DWAF and probably at Cabinet level to make itpossible. It would be an effective way of ensuring effective communication, liaisonand joint action by national, provincial and local government departments (e.g. co-ordination of budgeting procedures and spending).

• Unacceptable levels of crime and security may occur, as a result of poverty, AIDSorphans, and migration and easier access throughout the region, related to theimplementation of the TWP and the investment in infrastructure and otherservices. To combat this will need policing, tied in with regional developmentplanning and implementation of integrated strategic town and regional planningprinciples into all aspects of project planning activities. There will also have to beeffective communication, liaison and joint action by national, provincial and localgovernment departments (e.g. co-ordination of budgeting procedures andspending).

Site specific impacts

• Initial investigations have revealed that with the construction of Jana Dam andflooding of the basin, will bring about the loss of a large contiguous area ofnorthern Valley Bushveld in the Jana Basin, which is an endemic and threatenedveld type in KwaZulu-Natal. Not much is known of the terrestrial ecology of theJana basin and only a very limited survey of the basin was possible during thefeasibility study. It was found that there may be a reduction of population sizes ofplants and animals, and associated disruption of the ecosystem, geneticimpoverishment and species extinction. Loss of important and threatened animalspecies will also take place and there are indications of new undiscovered speciesbeing lost as well. This issue is even more important because of certain legalprinciples enumerated in NEMA, and international agreements on biodiversity, ofwhich South Africa is a signatory.

• There will be economic, physical and cultural disruption to people, from theconstruction of TWP infrastructure, flooding as the impoundments are formed andother operational aspects of the project. Approximately 74 private landowners,approximately 40 labourer families, 2 tenant families, and up to 450 households in

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTviii

• both dam basins and along the aqueducts may be affected either economically orphysically. Both communal subsistence agriculture and commercial farmingenterprises will be affected. This includes arable land and grazing land.

• Both compensation and relocation will have to be considered. The issue ofrelocation or resettlement is a highly emotive and sensitive one. The wholeprocess will have to be planned carefully, transparently and inclusively. If nothandled properly, it has the potential to substantially disrupt the implementation ofthe TWP.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTix

THUKELA WATER PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY

ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORT

CONTENTS

page

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vi

SUMMARY vii

CONTENTS x

GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS xii

FIGURES xiii

1 PURPOSE AND NEED 1

2 DESCRIPTION OF THE THUKELA WATER PROJECT 22.1 Policy considerations 22.2 Regional development 32.3 Description of infrastructure 3

3 THE BASIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENTFOR THE TWP 63.1 Approach 63.2 Environmental issues 9

3.2.1 National policy or multi-regional issues 103.2.2 Regional level 103.2.3 Site specific level 12

3.4 Alternatives 123.4.1 Alternatives at national policy and multi-regional level 133.4.2 Regional development alternatives 133.4.3 Site specific options 14

3.5 Assessment methodology 153.6 Assumptions, limitations and exclusions 16

4 DESCRIPTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT 174.1 National level 174.2 Regional level 204.3 Site specific level 214.4 The Thukela River 23

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTx

5 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF THE TWP 255.1 National level 26

5.1.1 Impacts on the receiving environment 265.1.2 Legal and administrative framework 275.1.3 Political aspects 285.1.4 Legal protection of rivers 295.1.5 Large dams 295.1.6 Reserve 305.1.7 AIDS 305.1.8 Decision record 315.1.9 Non-augmentation 32

5.2 Regional level 325.2.1 Sedimentology 335.2.2 Thukela Banks 335.2.3 Support infrastructure 345.2.4 Export of Thukela River water 355.2.5 Crime and security 365.2.6 Forward and backward linkages 375.2.7 Migration 385.2.8 Public health and disease 395.2.9 Environmental indicators 405.2.10 Natural resource utilisation 405.2.11 Tourism 425.2.12 Legal and administrative factors 43

5.3 Site specific level 445.3.1 Dam basins and riverine habitats 445.3.2 Compensation 46

6 CLOSING REMARKS 486.1 The way forward 49

LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1 Conventions for definitions and terminology

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 Location mapFigure 2 TWP Timeline

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTxi

GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

CFRD Concrete Faced Rockfill DamDAEA KwaZulu-Natal Department of Agriculture and Environmental Affairs DEAT Department of Environmental Affairs and TourismDPSS Drakensberg Pumped Storage SchemeDWAF Department of Water Affairs and ForestryEIA Environmental Impact AssessmentEMC Environmental Management ClassFSL Full Supply LevelGDP Gross Domestic ProductGGP Gross Geographic ProductI&APs Interested and Affected PartiesIEM Integrated Environmental Management IFR Instream Flow Requirements KZN KwaZulu-NatalLHWP Lesotho Highlands Water ProjectMAR Mean Annual RunoffNWA National Water ActNWRS National Water Resource StrategyPIP Public Involvement ProgrammePMF Probable Maximum FloodRCC Roller Compacted ConcreteRDP Reconstruction and Development ProgrammeRMF Regional Maximum FloodSADC Southern African Development CommunitySEA Strategic Environmental AssessmentTVTS Thukela-Vaal Transfer SchemeTWP Thukela Water ProjectVAPS Vaal Augmentation Planning StudyVRS Vaal River SystemVRSA Vaal River Supply AreaVRSS Vaal River Supply SystemWCD World Commission on Dams

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________


ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORT1

DEPARTMENT OF WATER AFFAIRS AND FORESTRYTHUKELA WATER PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY

VOLUME 1: ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY SUMMARY REPORT

1. PURPOSE AND NEED

The Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (DWAF) is entrusted with theresponsibility to protect, use, develop, conserve, manage and control the waterresources of South Africa, in a manner which is both sustainable and equitable,and for the benefit of all the people of the country. The provision of adequatesupplies of water in the Vaal River System (VRS) has enjoyed the highest prioritywithin DWAF for many decades. This is because the economic heartland ofSouth Africa relies on this source. Augmentation of water supplies to the VRShas taken place over many years and continues to enjoy priority in strategicwater resource planning within DWAF.

The Vaal River System supplies water to an area that produces more than 50 %of South Africa’s economic wealth and supports a major part of the population.The area includes all or portions of six provinces namely: Gauteng, Free State,Mpumalanga, Northwest, Northern Cape and the Northern Province. It is alsothe region where the large thermal power stations which produce 85% of SouthAfrica’s electricity supply are situated.

Due to expected increases in population, increasing urbanisation, improvedwater supply and sanitation standards and economic and industrial growth in theregion, the assured, low risk supply capacity of the Vaal River System is likely tobe exceeded by water increasing requirements sometime after the year 2005.The Vaal Augmentation Planning Study (VAPS) was initiated by DWAF in 1994to provide a comprehensive and sound basis for decisions that have to be madeat national government level, concerning the best means of managing watersupplies to the Vaal River System. VAPS was part of on-going water resourcedevelopment and management planning at a national level and includedconsideration of such wide ranging options as non-augmentation, demandmanagement, unconventional sources such as the desalination of sea water,importation of water from sources outside of South Africa, e.g. the LesothoHighlands and inter-basin transfers within South Africa. One of the latter optionswas to investigate the feasibility of storing excess water in the Thukela Riverbasin and to then transfer about 15 m3/s via the existing Drakensberg PumpedStorage Scheme to the Vaal River System when required.

The so-called Thukela Water Project Feasibility Study (TWP) was thereforecommissioned with the intention of investigating all the factors that might affectthe viability of development proposals for the Thukela River. The intention was

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



that the TWP Feasibility Study should provide DWAF with the information anddata, necessary for a strategic decision to be made as to whether the TWP oughtto be implemented, to augment the water resources of the Vaal River System.

2. DESCRIPTION OF THE THUKELA WATER PROJECT

The TWP must be assessed at three levels or tiers of decision-making. In thisway the environmental effects at a project or site specific level can be interpretedand assessed within a framework created by higher order development policiesand strategies.

2.1 Policy considerations

The TWP is an option for augmenting the water supplies in the Vaal RiverSystem. As such it is part of a National Water Resource Strategy, consisten withthe framework of existing government policy. To therefore consider the TWP assimply the development of certain large elements of infrastructure would not becorrect. To achieve its purpose, the TWP must be considered in terms ofpolicies, programmes, projects, processes and activities if it is to be successfullyimplemented; all of which will influence, and will be influenced by a decision toimplement a large project such as the TWP.

Of prime importance are the principles on which the National Water Act isbased, i.e. that the nation's water resources have to be protected, used,developed, conserved, managed and controlled in a manner which promotes theefficient, sustainable and beneficial use of water in the public interest, facilitatingsocial and economic development, providing for growing demand for water useand managing floods and droughts. Over the last five years, the development policies of the South AfricanGovernment have been driven by a number of objectives, which must bereflected in all development proposals and planning considerations, now and formany years to come, namely:

• meeting basic human needs;• addressing and reversing inequalities in the distribution of wealth and

access to and use of natural resources;• economic empowerment of previously disadvantaged individuals;• facilitating development that is socially, economically and environmentally

sustainable;• land reform;• the establishment of suitable institutions that have appropriate community,

racial and gender representation in order to achieve all of the above.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



2.2 Regional development

Implementation of the TWP would create an outstanding opportunity to drivedevelopment in many sectors in the uThukela Region of KwaZulu-Natal. Thebasis for this will be the infrastructure and support services that are needed formainly the construction phase, but also during the operational life of the TWP. Itwould be development that would be integral part of the social, physical, spatial,environmental, economic and institutional components of the TWP initiative. Anumber of regional development opportunities have been identified which shouldbe deliberately coordinated with the implementation and operation of the TWP toensure maximum advantage for the region, i.e:

• community development and welfare issues;• tourism;• commercial development;• industrial development;• agriculture;• training and capacity building;• infrastructure development (water and electricity supply);• materials procurement.

2.3 Main Scheme components

The TWP (Figure 1), been planned to deliver water at a rate of 15m³/s to theKilburn Dam for transfer to the Vaal River System. The following maincomponents will be required and their sizes will be determined by clarification ofa number of uncertainties such as the Reserve for the Thukela River system andoptimisation of the system operation.

2.3.1 Two large storage dams sized to supply a total of 15m³/s;

• Jana Dam in the Thukela River which is situated approximately 30km south-east of Ladysmith and 15km downstream of the confluence of the Thukelaand Klip Rivers, examined over a range of storage capacities from 920million m3 to 2 500 million m3.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Mean annual runoff:Sediment load delivery: 1 446 x 106m3

1.64 x 106m3 per annumWall HeightFull supply level: (FSL)Storage capacity:Surface area at FSLCrest length:

135m835m amsl920 x 106m3

1 900ha565m

160m860m amsl

1 469 x 106m3

2750 ha640m

190m890m amsl

2 500 x 106m3

3 880ha780m

Type of dam: Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC) Dam or Concrete-faced RockfillDam (CFRD)

Concrete quantities:Construction cost: R 1.2 billion

2.8 million m³ (RCC)R1.5 billion

4.5 million m³ (RCC)R2 billion

• Mielietuin Dam in the Bushmans River, situated between Weenen andEstcourt, and immediately upstream of the western boundary of the WeenenNature Reserve, examined over a range of storage capacities from 250million m3 to 465 million m3.

Mean annual runoff:Sediment delivery: 288 x 106m3

0.14 x 106m3 per annumWall HeightFull supply level:Storage capacity:Surface area:Crest length:

77m1 015m amsl250 x 106 m3

875ha500m

87m1 025m amsl350 x 106 m3

1 220ha800m

95m1 033m amsl465 x 106 m3

1 500ha1 200m

Type of dam: Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC) Arch DamCentral spillway (60m long)

Concrete quantities:Construction cost:

290 x 10³ m³ R300 million

360 x 10³ m³ R400 million

2.3.2 Aqueducts linking the proposed dams and the existing Kilburn Dam from whichwater will be transferred to the Vaal River System via the existing DrakensbergPumped Storage Scheme

Three options for aqueducts were investigated:

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



• A single pipeline ranging from 1.6 to 3.4m diameter or double pipeline alongthe same route (Preferred Option at end of Feasibility Study);

• Open canals (with limited lengths of tunnel, pipeline and inverted siphon);• A combination of open canals and pipelines.

The overall length of the pipeline option from Jana and Mielietuin Dams toKilburn Dam would be 121km. This includes a deep cut or tunnel (approximately1km long and 20m deep) about 12km east-south-east of Kilburn Dam. A fencedservitude of about 30m width is required during construction while a permanentunfenced servitude of approximately 20m would be required after construction,without a service road. The pipeline will be buried approximately 1.8m below theland surface. Large on site construction camps are not envisaged. In order tomaximise local development arising from the TWP, accommodation for the workforce on the dam sites as well as the aqueducts, will be situated in existing townswherever possible. In this way the local economies of Estcourt, Weenen,Colenso, Ladysmith, Bergville and Winterton can benefit. After completion of theproject, the infrastructure will be available for long term use.

At the end of construction, any infrastructure that cannot be put to long-termbeneficial use will be demolished or dismantled and the land reinstated for reuse.

The construction time required for a pipeline aqueduct is likely to be about threeyears with construction taking place at a number of headings concurrently. Pipelaying would proceed at a rate of about three weeks per kilometre of pipe. Theconstruction of the pipeline aqueduct would include the construction of valvechambers, crossings under roads and railways, scour outlets and river crossings,surge protection devices, flow metering equipment and inspection accessfacilities. There would be a pump station at each dam plus two intermediatepump stations along the route of the pipeline.

The overall length of the canal option from Jana and Mielietuin Dams to KilburnDam would be approximately 196km. This includes a 6.7km tunnel betweenJana Dam and the aqueduct junction south of Colenso, and a 6.4 km tunnel atMielietuin Dam to avoid the need for the canal to pass through the WeenenNature Reserve.

A fenced construction servitude of 100m wide would be required and aftercompletion completion a, permanent servitude of 40 to 80m wide would berequired, depending on cross-slopes and bends in the canal alignment. Apermanent service road would be required within the canal servitude whichwould be fenced.

Construction of the TWP could take eight to ten years to complete. The date ofcommencement would depend on water requirements in the Vaal River System,and the suitability and attractiveness of other major augmentation alternatives.Indications are that construction could start in 2003 at the earliest.

A graphic outline of the timing of the main activities, should a decision be made

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



to proceed with implementation of the TWP, is provided in Figure 2. Thisdiagram is based on the assumption that the first water must flow from the TWPto the Vaal River System during the year 2011. This is the best availableestimate of timing and any change will materially affect programming of all thework.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



3. THE BASIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT FOR THETWP

3.1 Approach

DWAF is committed to, the principles of Integrated Environmental Management(IEM) in undertaking feasibility investigations of the TWP (see box on next page).IEM is a philosophy which prescribes a code of practice for ensuring thatenvironmental considerations are fully integrated into all stages of thedevelopment process in order to achieve a desirable balance betweenconservation and development (Department of Environment Affairs, 1992). Anumber of fundamental guiding principles provide the value system whichunderpins IEM. These are outlined below and have become entrenched inenvironmental management practice.

Whilst IEM procedures should be adapted to suit particular circumstances, theprinciples of IEM should not be compromised. In the case of the TWP, a verylarge inter-catchment water transfer project on national scale, an IEM procedurethat provides a framework for assessing the wider implications of the project andnot only foccused on site specific issues was adopted.

Because of its size and matching complexity, the TWP was considered andassessed at national, regional and local different development and planninglevels. Information and data on the TWP was provided to DWAF in a form thatsupported strategic decisions concerning the manner in which water suppliesavailable from the Vaal River should be augmented. However, the transfer ofwater from the Thukela Basin is bound to have large regional effects which willinfluence development patterns within the uThukela Region and in KwaZulu-Natal. Operation of the dams and aqueduct system will have downstreamimpacts as will their construction and operation have direct site specific impacts.

Sustainability criteria, the impact of policy, cumulative effects, environmentalcapacity, secondary development, as well as site specific impacts from theconstruction and operation of very large infrastructural development in the upperThukela River catchment, have all been taken into account in the assessmentprocess.

One of the major steps in the IEM procedure is Environmental ImpactAssessment (EIA), i.e. the process of examining the environmental effectsarising from the project. EIA’s tend to focus on discreet events, at a project levelof development, and on the mitigation of impacts of proposed activities.Because of the limitations of project specific EIA’s, a Strategic EnvironmentalAssessment (SEA) has been undertaken to ensure that all the alternatives andimpacts relevant to sustainability at a policy and planning level are considered.SEA and EIA have therefore been applied to the different stages of development

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



planning and decision-making as described in Figure 3.1. This tiered approachprovides the framework against which the TWP is assessed.

Principles of Integrated Environmental Management

• informed decision-making• a broad understanding of the term environment, that includes physical, biological, social,

economic, cultural, historical and political components• accountability for decisions and for the information on which they are based• an open, transparent and participatory approach• ongoing consultation with interested and affected parties (I&APs)• due consideration of alternative options• democratic regard for individual rights and obligations• integration of a wide range of environmental components• opportunity for public and specialist input into the decision making process

Figure 3 : SEA and EIA in the Development Hierarchy

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



At the SEA level of investigation it is not so much a question of what effect the TWPwill have on the environment, but rather what effect the environment will have on theproject and other development opportunities. This is illustrated in Figure 4. By using SEA to address policy and multi-regional development decisions it has been possibleto better integrate the principles of IEM into decision making around proposed policiesand development plans.

Figure 4 : The relationship between EIA and SEA

The rationale for incorporating SEA in the Environmental Feasibility Investigatinoof the TWP was to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of assessing policiesand development plans, by focussing attention on sustainable development andthe cumulative environmental impacts from secondary and downstream effectsassociated with large projects.

Should a decision be made to implement the TWP, then another aspect of IEM,i.e.. The concept of cradle to grave environmental management, becomes mostimportant. Responsibility for the management of the environmental impacts ofan activity extends throughout the life cycle of that activity. This responsibilitystarts with conceptualisation and planning and runs through all stages of

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



implementation, which in the case of the TWP includes construction, operationand eventual possible decommissioning. For this reason the environmentalimpacts of the TWP have been assessed taking this life cycle into account. Themitigatory actions that were identified, must be incorporated into EnvironmentalManagement Plans (EMP). Such programmes must detail how construction andoperation of the project can be managed during all phases of the project lifecycle, so that the negative environmental effects are reduced, and the benefitsenhanced, within a structured management framework.

3.2 Environmental issues

In any process of environmental assessment, one of the biggest challenges is toadequately investigate and address the legitimate concerns and the expectationsof all the people who have an interest in or who are affected by the developmentproject. If not approached in a rational and logical manner, this can become animpossible task. To deal with this situation, the approach adopted was driven bykey issues. These are the issues which best reflect the different orientations ofpeople, the main philosophical and institutional constraints and frameworks interms of which the assessment has to be carried out, and the legitimateconcerns and expectations articulated by different groups or people during anongoing process of communication and consultation.

Identifying and then focussing on key issues made it possible for all the concernsraised during the scoping process, to be noted, carefully considered and thenincorporated into a holistic and overarching framework for environmentalassessment. Key issues are exactly what their name implies - the keys todetermining where the most serious impacts should be sought during theinvestigative phase of the process.

Key issues focused the investigation, on the really relevant aspects and ensuredthat the assessment was done at an appropriate level. They determined in whatway the assessment should be approached and also dictated which specialist orscientific areas needed to be addressed.

Issues are not statements of fact or scientifically defined impacts and includematters related to community values, norms and needs. They reflect the currentthinking and opinion of the Environmental Team, as to the manner in which theenvironmental assessment should be undertaken. The issues were purposelyformulated in the form of questions and are listed below and were used as aframework for assessment.

In carrying out the environmental feasibility study for the TWP, key issues wereidentified and described for the three different levels of assessment related to thelevels of decision-making mentioned in section 2 above. The three levels ofassessment used were:

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



• Strategic environmental assessment- National policy and particularly the NWRS- The Vaal River System- The Province of KwaZulu-Natal- Thukela catchment

• Regional assessment- The upper Thukela Basin- The uThukela region and areas of economic activity around the dam

sites- The Thukela Banks

• Site specific level- Specific dam sites- Impoundment areas- Aqueduct routes and associated infrastructure (say 1 km wide)- Riverine areas, instream and along river banks- Construction areas including secondary and support infrastructure

3.2.1 National policy and multi-regional issues

• What effects can be expected from the export of water out of the Thukelabasin to the receiving economic, social and biophysical environments of theVaal River System?

• What is the legal and administrative framework within which decisions havebeen made to investigate the feasibility of the TWP and in which it may haveto be operated?

• What are the possible consequences that may arise from political resistanceto the export of water out of KwaZulu-Natal to the Vaal River System? Howcan this affect its long term sustainability?

• What legal protection is there for rivers, within the legal system of SouthAfrica at this time? Does the Thukela River merit special protection?

• What significant implications and consequences are there for the DWAF inbuilding and operating large dams, in a global environment where it isseemingly becoming more inadmissible and inappropriate? Is such actionby DWAF advisable and appropriate, in the light of legal action and/orinternational pressure, or other forces or threats which can be brought tobear on the DWAF?

• What effect will the determination of the Reserve in the Vaal and ThukelaBasins have on the supply of water to the Vaal River System?

• What implications and consequences for the TWP should be considered,both from the side of the receiving environment as well as the sourceenvironment, as the spread and effect of AIDS takes hold on the country,over the next two to three decades?

• What is the status of the decision record, relating to policy optionsconsidered by DWAF for future augmentation of water to the Vaal RiverSystem?

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



• What are the implications of non-augmentation for the economy of thecountry?

3.2.2 Regional level

• The TWP is a major intervention into the functioning of natural and socialsystems. What effect will;- sedimentological processes in the catchment,- natural functioning of a river the size and nature of the Thukela,- regional and local human activity and development, and- biodiversity considerationshave on the construction, commissioning, operation and de-commissioningof the project?

• What effect will there be on the natural, social and economic environmentsof the Thukela Banks resulting from changes in the flow regime offreshwater to the mouth of the Thukela River during construction,commissioning, operation and de-commissioning of the TWP?

• How will the regulation of the Thukela River impact on the freshwaterrequirements of the Thukela estuary and the associated wildlife?

• What effect will the provision of support infrastructure for the project, such asroads and power supply, have on the biophysical environment, people, andregional development of the areas surrounding the dam sites, aqueductroutes and the Thukela catchment as a whole? Are there possible benefitsfor the region to be derived from utilising or expanding the supportinfrastructure and services both during and after completion of constructionof the project?

• In what way will the economic development of the uThukela Region andKwaZulu-Natal be affected by the export of water out of the Thukelacatchment? What is the opportunity cost to KwaZulu-Natal of exportingwater out of the province?

• How much and in what way will the local economy be affected by theconstruction of dams and aqueduct routes? What will the economic effectbe on centres such Ladysmith, Colenso, Winterton and Bergville?

• In what way will current levels of crime and security in the region beinfluenced by the TWP?

• What are the social, economic, and biophysical forward and backwardlinkages of the project on the regional resource use and developmentactivities in the Thukela catchment and KwaZulu-Natal?

• Will the development affect the movement and migration of people within thecatchment area of the Thukela River? How does this fit in with the existingregional planning scenarios? Will the project add to or detract fromsustainable development in the region? How will this affect the mainenvironmental factors such (e.g. land degradation and resource use)?

• In what way will the TWP affect the current and future projects associatedwith the Government’s Land Reform Programme?

• What are the social, economic and biophysical practices in the uppercatchment which are likely to negatively impact on the long termsustainability of the scheme?

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



• Will the construction of the proposed dams result in the loss of habitat whichis unique and threatened? What is the significance of this for biodiversity?

• What are the public health and disease impacts associated with the scheme,including HIV AIDS, in the regional context?

• What is the carrying capacity of the biophysical, social and economicenvironment within which the scheme will be developed and have tooperate? In what way will the project affect the carrying capacity?

• What are the most important environmental indicators that should be used tomonitor the long term effects and sustainability of the scheme?

• What will the impact of the TWP be on natural resource utilisation in theThukela Basin? Specifically, what effect will there be on resource supplyand the future consumption of basic goods, game carrying capacity andgame hunting enterprises, micro-enterprises associated with naturalproducts, and options for further use?

• What are the implications of the TWP for eco-tourism in the upper ThukelaBasin? How will tourism based on important historical, archaeological andcultural sites in the region be influenced?

• What important legal and administrative factors should be considered at aregional level to ensure that the TWP is constructed and operated in anenvironmentally sustainable and acceptable manner?

• Will the loss of land, habitat and scenic landscape materially affect eitherpresent or future land use options?

3.2.3 Site specific level

• What will the direct effects of the construction, commissioning and operationof the dams and aqueduct routes be on existing infrastructure and access,the biophysical environment and the directly affected people?

• What effects will the provision of roads and other new infrastructure such aspump stations and powerlines have on the people and the biophysicalenvironment ?

• What will be the effect of construction and operation of the dams on theecosystems and organisms in the dam basins and downstream riverine (andaquatic) habitats?

• What recommendations should be made to DWAF for the following:- compensation for loss of arable land, fixed property or other similar loss

of patrimony- resettlement as a result of the construction of infrastructure, flooding or

other operational aspects of the TWP.• What environmental management systems and plans need to be put in

place for the management of impacts during construction and operation ofthe scheme?

• What are the environmental impacts associated with construction inparticular and what management framework is needed for:- Construction camps- Personnel accommodation

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



- Batching plants- Earthworks- Concrete construction- Administration- Transportation- Quarrying or borrow activities- Solid waste disposal- Water use- Transportation- Dust

• Large quantities of water with significant energy levels will have to bereturned over the dam spillways into a relatively narrow river course in asteep-sided gorge during times of high flood. This will raise major operatingconcerns and risks. What environmental effects are associated with thesehigh risk situations?

3.3 Alternatives

The identification and examination of alternatives is a fundamental component ofenvironmental assessment. Decision-makers must be provided with informationthat compares alternative courses of action. When a decision on a particularcourse of action is made there should be little doubt as to who bears theresponsibility and what the implications and consequences of the decision arelikely to be in terms of biophysical, social, economic, historical, cultural andpolitical factors.

The TWP is a very large and complex development project which emanated fromdecisions made on water resource policies and implementation of strategieswithin the national administrative structures of government. It is a project thatwill have profound effects at different levels and in many different ways over along period of time. When carrying out the assessment of environmental impactsfor the TWP it was not appropriate to limit these to site specific or project specificalternatives.

The consideration of alternatives in the environmental assessment process, wasaligned to the three planning and developmental levels that were used in theidentification and categorisation of issues, namely, alternatives related to:

• National policy and multi-regional development;• Regional development;• Site specific options;

The alternatives used in the TWP assessment are described in more detailbelow.

3.3.1 Alternatives at national policy and multi-regional level

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Augmentation of water supplies to the Vaal River System has taken place overmany years and has always enjoyed priority in strategic water resource planningwithin DWAF. Over many years DWAF has identified and evaluated manyoptions, and implemented some schemes, to ensure that there is an adequatesupply of water from the Vaal River System. These options do not all representprojects as such, but from different methods of carrying out the policy nationalwater resources strategy, approved by government, to augment water suppliesfrom the Vaal River System (VRS).

In this assessment the TWP was compared at a national policy level with thealternatives listed below, for satisfying the water requirements from the VRS. Theidentity given to each option is shown in small caps below.

• Inter-basin transfers within South Africa (THE TWP)• Non-augmentation (NON AUGMENTATION)• Demand management (DEMAND MANAGEMENT)• Importation of water from outside of South Africa, e.g. Lesotho Highlands

(IMPORTATION)

The consideration of these alternatives was taken up in a StrategicEnvironmental Assessment (SEA). The SEA focused on elements ofsustainability associated with each of these alternatives, rather than directenvironmental impacts, with significance placed on long-term secondary andcumulative effects and indicators of irreversible change.

3.3.2 Regional development alternatives

If it is implemented, the TWP can become a very effective driver of primary andsecondary development in the uThukela Region of KwaZulu-Natal. However, ifthe implementation process is not handled optimally, the potential benefits of theTWP on a regional scale may not be realised. In a regional context, it wastherefore important to establish how successful the TWP would be for a realisticrange of alternative circumstances that could prevail in the region.

The TWP was assessed on a regional basis to provide decision-makers with anunderstanding of the development implications of the TWP and the likelysuccess or failure of TWP driven development in the Region. For variousscenarios. The identity given to each scenario is shown in small uppercasebelow.

• A worst case regional scenario (WORSE - DECLINE AND DEPRESSION)• A probable regional scenario (MORE OF THE SAME BUT BETTER)• Best case regional scenario (DIFFERENT BUT BETTER - FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE

OR THUKELA RENAISSANCE)

In using these scenarios in the assessment process, it must be realised that it isnot about predicting the future, but about considering alternatives for the future

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



To this end the key factors influencing the success or failure of the developmentmust be identified. In addition, the macro economic forces behind these micro-environmental factors must be sought (Peter Schwartz). For this assessmentregional economists (Urban-Econ) provided guidelines on what could beexpected. The elements that were found to be most relevant for these scenarioswere the following:

Key factors• Political will and effectiveness of regional and local government;• Socio-economic factors such as land reform, legal change, poverty,

migration, AIDS;

Macro forces• Adverse and favourable climatic conditions or changes (drought, flood, and

general climatic conditions that affect ecology and economic activity);• External macro economic factors (oil price, exchange rates, commodity

prices);• National political strategies and development priorities.

The three scenarios include these elements which vary from less favourablethrough probable little change, to favourable conditions. In this way aunderstanding was obtained of the circumstances under which regionaldevelopment in the uThukela Region, based on the implementation of the TWP,would be robust or not.

3.3.3 Site specific options

The alternatives assessed at a site specific level were identified using standardapproaches for project-based EIA. These alternatives are based on factors suchas project locality and size. The Jana and Mielietuin dam sites were chosenafter intensive investigation and selection from many alternatives atreconnaissance and pre-feasibility levels of study. At each of these sites a rangeof different dam sizes were evaluated. On the aqueduct routes there have alsobeen choices between canals, pipelines and a combination of these two andalternative route locations were considered.

The following project level options were considered for the assessment of directenvironmental impacts according to the issues framework presented in section3.2.3 above:

• Jana and Mielietuin Dams- Maximum dam capacity (MAX. WALL HEIGHT)- Optimal dam capacity (OPTIMAL WALL HEIGHT)

• Aqueduct routes• Pipelines• Canals

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



3.4 Assessment methodology

Environmental impacts were identified and assessed within the frameworkprovided by:

i) the boundaries of the study;ii) the key issues; and iii) the alternatives chosen and agreed upon.

This framework was used to ensure that the assessment did not becomeunnecessarily unwieldy, difficult to control, unfocused and unmanageable. Anumber of specialist baseline studies, were commissioned to elucidate certainissues that were identified during the scoping phase and in some cases toidentify, evaluate and assess environmental impacts. This summary reportcontains an analysis, evaluation and interpretation of only the most important ormost significant impacts relating to the implementation and operation of theTWP. It also lists some environmental impacts that were not dealt with in thespecialist baseline reportsbut emerged from integration of the findings of anumber of the baseline studies for this summary report.

In the environmental assessments for the TWP the methods used for impactidentification and evaluation were analogues, expert opinion, literature reviewsand to some extent, cause-effect relationships. The methods used were:

i) appropriate for the proposed development;ii) acceptable to the relevant interested and affected parties;iii) professionally acceptable;iv) relatively easy to apply;v) applicable to the range of key issues and specialist investigations areas

identified.vi) able to provide results that enable professional judgement to be made in

evaluating the impacts.

Once impacts had been identified and evaluated, their relative significance wasassessed against criteria which included the magnitude and likelihood of theimpact, its spatial and temporal extent, the likely degree of recovery of theaffected environment, the value of the affected environment, the level of publicconcern, and political repercussions (Glasson, et al).

The intention was to identify those impacts that had a high intensity, highprobability of occurrence and a high significance. Recommendations were thenmade for management action with the objective of reducing negative impactsand enhancing positive impacts (benefits). Recommendations were also madein some cases for monitoring, review and an auditing programme for tracking theachievement of the mitigation objectives. The definitions and terminology usedin the description, evaluation and assessment of environmental impacts aregiven in Table 3.1.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



3.5 Assumptions, limitations and exclusions

The following assumptions and exclusions made when the environmentalassessment was commissioned imposed the limitations under which the workwas carried out:

• The work was carried out at a feasibility level of investigation and was thusnot a full environmental impact assessment.

• The purpose of the investigation was to highlight serious or fatal flaws thatmight indicate where the TWP should be modified, adapted, or evenabandoned if necessary.

• At the time that the feasibility study was undertaken, decisions had not yetbeen taken with regard to the location of secondary project infrastructureand components such as access roads, construction camp sites, borrowpits, and spoil dumps. The results of the feasibility studies will in fact guidethese choices.

• For terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem investigations, it is important thatmonitoring and field studies be carried out over at least two seasonal cycles.This was not possible with the feasibility study but will be included in a fullEIA that is scheduled for the decision support phase of the TWP.

• It was not possible to fully investigate the geomorphological andsedimentological processes in the time available. However, a goodunderstanding was obtained of these factors which is most valuable forplanning the next phase of investigation.

• Impacts were not assessed for the following:- the environmental issues associated with the generation and supply of

electricity for construction and operation of the TWP;- impacts related to local suppliers of raw materials;- the human working environments at construction sites.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



4. DESCRIPTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT

4.1 National level

The TWP is a very large and complex development project, originating frompolicy level decisions within the national government. These policies relate notonly to strategic water supply. Other policies are directed at job creation, landreform, economic empowerment of previously disadvantaged people, eliminationof discrimination and establishment of equity in natural resource utilisation. TheTWP will have profound effects at many levels and in many different ways over along period of time. Government ministries such as the Department of WaterAffairs and Forestry, are mandated to carry out and implement governmentpolicy, and they have a very specific obligation to see that ‘environmentalconsiderations be accorded appropriate recognition and respect in theadministrative processes in our country.’ They must see to it that there is ‘achange in our legal and administrative approach to environmental concerns’(P.J.J. Olivier JA).

Table 3.1 Conventions for definitions and terminology used in the description, evaluation and assessment of environmental impacts

CATEGORY DESCRIPTION OR DEFINITIONTYPE A brief written statement, conveying what environmental aspect is impacted on

by a particular project activity or action, or policy or statutory provision.MAGNITUDE ANDINTENSITY

� very high

� high

� moderate� low� no effect� unknown

The severity of the impact

- Complete disruption of process; death of all affected organisms; total demographic disruption

- Substantial process disruption, death of many affected organisms; substantialsocial disruption

- Real, measurable impact, which does not alter process or demography- Small change, often only just measurable- No measurable or observable effect- Insufficient information available on which to base a judgement.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



EXTENT/SPATIALSCALES

� international� national� regional� local

The geographical extent or area over which the direct effects of the impact arediscernible, i.e. the area within which natural systems or humans directly endurethe effects of the impact.

- Southern Africa- South Africa- KwaZulu-Natal and the Thukela catchment, the uThukela region- dam basin, conveyance servitude, river reach, specific site locality

Continued…/…

DURATION

� short term� medium term� long term

The term or time period over which the impact is expressed, not the time untilthe impact is expressed. Where necessary the latter must be specifiedseparately.

- up to 5 years (or construction phase only)- 5 to 15 years 9 (or commissioning and early operational phases)- > 15 years (or operational life)

SIGN

� positive (+)� negative (-)

Denotes the perceived effect of the impact on the affected area

beneficial impacts impacts which are deleterious

CERTAINTY

� improbable� probable� definite

A measure of how sure, in the professional judgement of the assessor, that theimpact will occur or that mitigatory activity will be effective

- low likelihood of the impact actually occurring- distinct possibility that the impact may occur- impact will occur regardless of prevention measures

SIGNIFICANCE

� high

� medium

� low

An integration (i.e. opinion) of the type, magnitude, scale and duration of theimpact. Judgements as to what constitutes a significant impact requireconsideration of both context and intensity. It is the assessor’s best judgementof whether the impact is important or not within the broad context in which itsdirect effects are felt. (see Fuggle R.F. & Rabie M.A. 1992. EnvironmentalManagement in South Africa. Cape Town: Juta & Co. 823)

- Could (or should) block the project/policy; totally irreversible (-ve impact) orprovides substantial and sustained benefits (+ve impact)- Impact requires detailed analysis and assessment, and often needs substantialmitigatory actions.- Impact is real but not sufficient to alter the approach used. Probably nomitigation action necessary.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Policy making in South Africa, has moved from an elitist approach, to an onprocess together with factors such as public choice and incremental decision-making. The reason for this was the change of priorities and the focus onreconstruction and development during the decade of the nineties. Thechallenge for development in this country remains to find an agreed way forward,among many differing groups and agendas, with different interests andresponsibilities.

It is within this context that a policy decision must be made as to whether thewater resources of the Vaal River System should be augmented or not. TheVaal River System supplies water to the economic hub of the country, which isreported to produce more than 50% of the country’s wealth and supports asubstantial portion of the population. Water users in this area are spread overportions of six provinces and include a number of strategic industries. Non-augmentation of the Vaal River System water supplies could result in economicloss and a decrease in economic growth of the national economy.

On the other hand, cognisance must also be taken of the international debate onthe merits of large dams in solving such problems. The international debate isdistinctly North-centred, originating from disillusionment in developed countrieswith the outcome and legacy of some of their major water projects, and not onlythose built for water supply. It is important to understand the political contextwithin which water resource issues are addressed before interpreting themeaning and possible outcome of the debate. The work of the WorldCommission on Dams (WCD) is only one of the factors in this debate and islikely to define some of the extremism (on all sides) and add rationality to what iscurrently a highly emotive discourse.

It should be noted that up until about 1975 the idea that the resources of naturecould be controlled and exploited for the benefit of mankind, was acceptedworldwide. This was followed by a new approach by important actors in theNorth, e.g. funding agencies and advocacy groups (NGO’s), who took theposition that “technology” was damaging rather than controlling environmentalresources. This second paradigm or ethic wave has had very little impact onwater policy in the Southern Hemisphere.

During the 1990's a third paradigm, namely water is an economic resource, hasa value in every context, and must carry a price to cover its full cost, seized theprofessional water community in the North. This has been totally rejected in theSouth! A fourth paradigm is now emerging worldwide: Integrated WaterResource Management. It is in this context that decision-makers in South Africamust be informed, bearing in mind the current debates at national level, withinternational thinking forming the texture of the background.

There are two major paradigms at work in South Africa, interacting in a waywhich creates confusion and unpredictability. The first paradigm relates to theoverall management style that is dominant in the water resources environmentwith extreme poles namely supply Side Management (mobilising more water in

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



response to escalating demand) and Demand Management (reducing the overalldemand to coincide with the sustainability level of supply). The second paradigmrelates to equity. The extreme poles of this debate can be understood as being“Centralisation” and versus “Decentralisation” in decision-making and planning,in association with acceptable levels of public input in both.

At a national level, the environment within which the decisions must be maderegarding the TWP, has two distinct parts, namely:

• a national policy environment in which government is tasked with theresponsibility of reconstruction and development, and improving the qualityof life for all on an equitable basis;

• an international environment and a global market, in which South Africa isbut one of many players. This brings many additional pressures to bear ondecision-makers, who must also consider the implications of internationallaw and best practise.

4.2 Regional level

The uThukela Region is located on the western side of KwaZulu-Natal. It isbounded by the uMzinyathi Region in the north and the Indlovu Region in thesouth-east, while the western boundary is formed by the Drakensbergescarpment. The Drakensberg and Thukela River are the most prominentnatural features.

The region encompasses a total area of 11 000 km2 and in 1998 had apopulation of about 650 000 people. It is divided into three sub-regions,Emnambithi, Umtshezi and Okhahlamba, which incorporate a number ofMagisterial Districts, Municipalities and Tribal Authorities.

While the region as a whole has a strong rural character (only 26% of thepopulation live in or near towns), the urban/rural ratio varies. These differenceshave led to development being approached at a sub-regional level and theproduction of individual plans for each. Other demographic characteristics of theregion include:

• The high occurrence of HIV/AIDS in the area (officially 26.9% versus 8% forRSA).

• The youthful population of the rural areas (21% are under the age of six).• A current overall population growth rate estimated at 1,3%.

The factors influencing the level of social welfare are inter-dependant and areclosely related to the social trends that prevail in an area. These factors whichmust all be considered holistically are:

• There is a shortfall of educational facilities in all age groups. These

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



inadequacies relate not only to schools, but also access to institutions,training and housing for teachers.

• Seventeen percent of the urban population and 42% of the rural populationare illiterate. In order to address the situation, the KZN Department ofEducation has launched Operation Upgrade to do literacy training inLadysmith.

• A lack of funding and inadequate transport makes the skills training coursesavailable in the major urban centres inaccessible to those in rural areas.

• The five hospitals and the majority of the 24 clinics in the region are situatedin the more densely populated areas, while commercial farming and landreform project areas are sparsely serviced by mobile clinics.

• Sport facilities of a high standard are available in urban areas but areaccessible to few, and in rural areas the facilities are restricted to levelground used as soccer and netball pitches.

• The 12 community halls in the region cannot support a well-developedrecreation programme and no library services are provided to rural schools.

• Unrest and violence has fragmented many communities and families andresulted in an increase in the number of orphans and ‘street children’ in theurban areas.

The uThukela Region is well linked via the road network to neighbouring regionsand the N3, which is one of the primary provincial development corridors. Theimproved road network and efficiency of road transport, in conjunction with areduction in the importance of rail transport, has, however, decreased railservices in many of the small towns, resulting in a general decline in theireconomies. Ladysmith is the exception and has in the past grown due to itsimportance as the central development node in the region.

The economy of the uThukela Region is proportionately smaller than that of theprovince as a whole. Despite this relative smaller size, it has experienced agrowth rate of 2.5% per annum since the 1980s, which is greater than that ofKwaZulu-Natal (1.7% p.a.). Job Creation has not kept pace with the rest of theeconomy and unemployment is higher than the average for KwaZulu-Natal. Theprimary economic sectors in the region include:

• Manufacturing• Utilities• Transport• Trade (incl Tourism)• Agriculture• Construction• Public service

Tourism is a significant contributor to the region’s economy and current activitiesare focused largely on wildlife and nature, adventure activities, and historicaltours and activities. The region is endowed with unique and diverseenvironmental resources, for example:

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



• The Thukela River.• Important biodiversity represented in a number of protected areas, notably

the KwaZulu-Natal Drakensberg Park, the Thukela Biosphere Reserve, andWeenen Nature Reserve.

• The Drakensberg Mountain Range as a whole, which is also the source ofthree of the provinces major rivers, the Thukela, Mkomazi and the Mzimkulu.

• Cultural and historical sites including Voortrekker and Anglo-Boer Warbattlefields, African and Colonial cultural sites and museums.

• Agricultural activity changes significantly across the region due to thevariations in climatic conditions that characterise the area. Large-scalecommercial agriculture is situated in the higher altitudes closer to theDrakensberg where moist, cooler conditions occur and taper off towards thehot, drier climate experienced in the Thukela Valley where cattle, game andsubsistence farming prevails.

4.3 Site specific level

The renewable natural resources on communal and privately owned lands in andaround the dam basins are depended upon for a variety of uses. Both the Janaand Mielietuin sites are located in areas where ecotourism and game farming arethe predominant landuses. The north bank of the proposed dam at Jana iscommunal land, where there is substantial dependence on harvesting ofindigenous plant resources for household as well economic purposes.Indigenous plant resources provide trade and consumption opportunities withoutthe need for cash, thereby presenting an important cost saving mechanism torural households. These communal areas are also characterised by subsistenceagriculture. Conversely, the south bank of the Thukela in the Jana area, theMielietuin area and the aqueduct route are primarily used for commercialagriculture. Resource supply, game carrying capacity, game huntingenterprises, household resource needs, and micro-enterprises associated withdirect access to the natural resources, all of which are significant landuseactivities in the area, will be affected by the flooding of the dam basins and theconstruction of the aqueduct.

The north bank of the Thukela River is characterised by communal land tenureand numerous scattered rural villages. The south bank of the Jana, the MielietuinDam area, and the aqueduct route are characterised by commercial farms withlow settlement densities. However, these commercial farms also support anumber of farm worker families and tenant farmers. There are a number ofexisting and planned Land Reform Projects in the vicinity of the proposed TWP.

The vegetation in the dam basins was classified by Acocks (1975) as ValleyBushveld, more specifically as the northern form, which is endemic to (onlyoccurring in) KwaZulu-Natal. It is thus an important Provincial natural heritagefeature. It is estimated that up to the present, a total of 500 570 ha, or 65% ofthe original veld type has been lost. If the dams are built, another 5 340 ha or

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



2% of the remaining veld type will be lost. It will thus be an accelerating factor tothe continuing destruction of this asset, which will then be less than one-third ofits original extent.

A number of attractive natural features, including the Thukela Gorge and scenicwildlands that support a wide range of birds and mammals occur in the Jana andMielietuin Basin. The Thukela River and Bushmans River are host to a range oftourism and recreation activities, including game farming, eco-tourism, riverrafting and canoeing activities.

The immediate environment of the Jana dam site is relatively remote and theterrain is rugged, with steep valley sides, occasionally incised by naturaldrainage channels. Consequently, the site is relatively inaccessible. Thetopography of the Jana site is defined by a distinct narrowing of the ThukelaGorge as the river runs south. The river channel is approximately 100m in width,from which the flanks of the gorge climb steeply for 100m, flattening marginallyover a further 60m and rising their final 100m again, relatively steeply.

The total depth of the gorge at the dam site is 260m to 280m and the gorgebegins to widen progressively, immediately downstream. The Jana site is atopographically efficient location for a dam of the proposed height. However, thefeatures which give rise to suitability of the site only occur over a stretch of a fewhundred metres along the river course.

Geomorphologically, the Jana dam basin is broadly characterised by a 60m to70m dolerite sill that has intruded into the sedimentary geology of the regionwhich compromises inter-bedded sandstones, siltstones and mudstones of theVryheid formation. The geology of the dam site is generally competent withadequate bearing and shearing capacity to allow for the founding of a concrete,or rock-fill structure without excessive foundation excavation. The geologicaland geotechnical conditions in the river foundation channel into which floods willdischarge are cause for concern. Although the geology downstream is typifiedby a 20m capping of strong, massive sandstone which should be relativelyresistant to flood discharge, the underlying silt and mudstones could presentproblems with regard to scouring taking place during large spillway dischargeevents. The steepness of the cliffs could also present problems due to the toundermining. Consequently, significant cutting back and scour protection maybe required if flood flows are to be safely returned to the river downstream of thedam.

The area in which the Mielietuin dam is to be situated is relatively easilyaccessible. The basin comprises largely open farm lands and the gradients ofthe valley sides are only steep in the immediate vicinity of the dam site itself.The proximity of the site to Estcourt will facilitate the supply of day to dayprovisions and of equipment from this town. The accessibility and availability ofspace at the site will allow for a more efficient site layout than will be possible atJana.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



The dam site is located in a short gorge, which is incised through a deep doleritesill to a depth of approximately 90m. Above the gorge, the topography flattensout rapidly. It is evident that the proposed dam site is topographically veryefficient. Although the efficiency of the site for dams higher than 90m decreasesdue to the relatively flat flanks, these flanks provide easy access and a usefulopen working area.

The Mielietuin site is situated on a solid dolerite sill and it is only at the top of thegorge as the flanks flatten significantly, that sandstone capping occurs. Ingeneral, unweathered dolerite is encountered close to the ground surface overthe full length of the gorge area and is an extremely good dam site from ageological point of view.

The aqueduct routes traverse Valley Bushveld and Southern Tall Grassveld nearthe Jana and Mielietuin basins, although for the most part the aqueduct routesare situated in the latter. This vegetation type occurs between altitudes of1 050m and 1 350m and is characterised by open Acacia sieberiana savanna.

4.4 The Thukela River Catchment

The Thukela catchment drains an area of 29 039km2, rising on the escarpment ofthe Drakensberg and flowing approximately 512km through the eastern slopes,the midlands and discharges in the Indian Ocean. The Thukela catchment hastwo main drainage systems, namely, the Upper Thukela and the Buffalo Rivers.This is attributed to the great Thukela Fault which runs in an east-west directionthrough the catchment as far as Colenso.

The topography of the Thukela River Catchment varies dramatically, rangingfrom steep areas to gentle slopes. The lower, flatter areas are denselypopulated and livestock numbers are large. Historical and present fishdistribution data show that 20 indigenous and seven alien species inhabit theThukela and Bushmans Rivers. These include two Red Data species which onlyoccur in the estuary and two endemic species which are widespread throughoutthe system. It would appear that there are no “unique” fish habitats in theThukela River.

The riparian vegetation in, the Thukela system is far from pristine. The diversityhas been drastically reduced by years of mismanagement. Most of thesweetveld grasses, which constituted good grazing, have been lost from thefloodplains and have been replaced by monotypic stands of Cynodon dactylon,which is, however, an important resource to local herdsman. Heavy grazing hasalso reduced the hygrophilus species which has resulted in a reduction in standsof Phragmites and hygrophilus fringes of Juncaceae and Cyperaceae. Only afew species of biological importance remain, including Vitellariopsis dispar, whichis endemic to the Thukela and its tributaries.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



The Thukela Estuary drains the largest river system in KwaZulu-Natal with acatchment of 29 101km2 and a natural mean annual runoff of 3 900 x 106m3. Itis the only major estuary in this category flowing into the Indian Ocean in SouthAfrica. The Thukela River and estuary has played a significant role in thedynamics of the adjacent continental shelf. The shelf widens off Durban, and thewidened area of shelf or the Thukela cone has been formed as a direct result ofthe deposition of sediment transported by the Thukela. Another importantfeature is the coastline north of the Thukela mouth, particularly in the area southof Mtunzini, where the beaches are prograding, due to the deposition ofsediment, much of which is ultimately derived from the Thukela.

The Thukela estuary is relatively depauperate in fauna, particularly in respect offish and invertebrates. This situation is caused by the high variability of thesystem as it shifts between estuarine and riverine conditions, as well as thedestructive effects of the frequent and large flood events. Similarly, vegetationcommunities were found to have limited value, the notable exception being anarea of indigenous forest, stands of Barringtonia racemosa, and a smallPhragmites dominated wetland close to the mouth. The system would appear tobe of greater importance to avifauna for feeding and roosting.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



5. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF THE TWP

An assessment, at feasibility level, of the impacts and consequences that couldbe expected if the TWP was to be implemented is given in this section. Sincethis report is a synthesis of wide-ranging investigations and a diversity of inputs,not all the impacts have been listed or referred to. These may be found in themore detailed supporting reports. Only impacts and consequences that areconsidered to be the most important have been included. In particular, it is thoseenvironmental impacts that have been assessed as highly significant which mustbe brought to the attention of decision-makers. Wherever possible in suchcases, mitigation action has also been recommended, and the assessmentrepeated, to estimate the effect of such management action. Wherever possible,the impacts of alternatives have been compared, so that decision-makers arebetter able to judge what the consequences of their decisions might be, inrelation to the different options which are available.

This summary assessment was prepared using an issues focused approach.The specialist baseline studies did not focus on issues. The terms of referencefor these studies were drawn up thematically, based on classical specialistenvironmental subject areas such as biodiversity, fauna, flora and tourism. Theissues focused approach was favoured because the issues reflect the concernsand wishes of a wide range of stakeholders including the authorities, ordinarypeople, interest groups as well as specialists. By using the issues framework itwas possible to integrate the inputs from these many sources into a holistic anduseful summary of the environmental consequences of the TWP.

The following approach was used to describe and assess the environmentalimpacts:

i) Assessments were done, for national, regional and site specificconsiderations.

ii) The issues listed in section 3.2 were considered individually in the threeassessments.

iii) A brief contextual description of the issue was provided.iv) The principal environmental impacts associated with each issue were

identified and described.v) The causes of the impact were listed.vi) The effects that could be expected from the impact were listed.vii) Mitigation measures to deal with the causes and effects of the impact were

proposed.viii) The environmental impact associated with specific issues was assessed and

compared in tabular form for each of the alternatives identified anddescribed in section 3.4.

ix) Considerations of significance were assigned to the impact, for eachalternative both before and after the application of mitigation action.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



x) Those issues with high intensity, high probability and particularly highsignificance, even after the application of mitigatory action, were noted.

5.1 National level

5.1.1 Impacts on the receiving environment

What effects can be expected from the export of water out of the Thukela basinto the receiving economic, social and biophysical environments of the Vaal RiverSystem?

Context

The TWP as defined at feasibility level, was planned around the delivery of about15m3/s to the Kilburn Dam. Water would be transferred from Kilburn to theSterkfontein Dam in the Vaal River System via the existing Drakensberg PumpedStorage Scheme. Water would then be released from Sterkfontein via theNuwejaarspruit and Wilge River to the Vaal Dam. These releases will affect theriverine environment and will augment the water supplied for domestic, industrial,agricultural, recreational and other uses, in the Vaal River System.

Impact 1

Continued economic growth and development in the industrial heartland of SouthAfrica.

Cause:

Augmentation of water supplies in the Vaal River System.

Effect:

Economic investment, job opportunities, expansion of water and sanitationservices, assurance of water supplies (higher security)

Enhancement:

Ongoing responsible management and equitable allocation of water resources tounderpin sustainability considerations.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Comparison of alternatives - Continued economic growth in the VRSA

AUGMENTATION

OPTIONS

TWP NON

AUGMENTATION

DEMAND

MANAGEMENT

IMPORTATION

Impact Type Positive Negative Neutral PositiveMagnitude Medium Medium Medium MediumProbability probable Probable probable probable

Significance high High low high

Significance afterenhancement

high High low high

Impact 2

Degraded riverine environment on the Nuwejaarspruit and Wilge River system.

Cause:

Water releases in open natural channels from Sterkfontein Dam to Vaal Dam.

Effect:

Channel destabilisation, erosion, transfer of organisms, waterborne diseases,parasites and hosts, disturbance of natural fluxes and flows, incorrect trigger signals(e.g. for spawning),

Enhancement:

Use of pipelines, otherwise stabilisation of riverbanks, appropriate dam operating andwater release rules, water quality and biological monitoring.

Comparison of alternatives - Degraded riverine environmentAUGMENTATION

OPTIONS

TWP NON

AUGMENTATION

DEMAND

MANAGEMENT

IMPORTATION

Impact Type Negative No impact No impact No impactMagnitude Medium None None NoneProbability probable definite definite Definite

Significance high none none NoneSignificance afterenhancement

Medium to low none none None

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



5.1.2 Legal and administrative framework

What is the legal and administrative framework within which decisions have beenmade to investigate the feasibility of the TWP and within which it may have to beimplemented and operated?

Context

Before 1994 policy and decision-making in South Africa was characterised by theelitist approach. This has changed to an emphasis the process model, factorssuch as public choice and incremental decision-making are the order of the day.Because of the Constitutional requirements that “everyone has the right toadministrative action that is lawful, reasonable and procedurally fair”, it isimperative that any administrative actions taken should be seen to be not onlylawful and procedurally correct, but also to be reasonable.

Comment:

Policy and decision-making processes in South Africa, must comply with arigorously applied and administered, constitutionally based culture of rights andequity in decision-making.

Cause:

Changing constitutional and legal framework within South Africa, where“everyone has the right to administrative action that is lawful, reasonable andprocedurally fair”.

Effect:

It is important that decision-makers fully appreciate that any administrativeactions taken should be seen to be not only lawful and procedurally correct, butalso to be reasonable. Those who made the decision can be required to explainand justify the reasoning followed.

Action:

In terms of the National Water Act, two issues are of importance for the TWP atthis level, namely national water resources strategy (NWRS) (sections 5, 6 and7), and the Reserve (sections 16, 17 and 18). Management of the waterresources of the Thukela River must be compatible with an overarching nationalstrategy. It is necessary that DWAF, as a matter of urgency, formally compilessuch a strategy to address the management of water in this river system.However, it is not necessary for DWAF to delay a decision concerning theimplementation of the TWP until a national strategy and a strategy at catchmentlevel for the Thukela has been established. Failure to act within the spirit of thelaw would amount to unreasonable administrative action. Determination of the

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Reserve and the formulation of a strategy for the management of the waterresources of the Thukela River, as part of a national strategy, must therefore beput in hand without delay.

Alternatives:

The above action applies equally to all alternatives considered.

5.1.3 Political aspects

What are the possible consequences that may arise from a political backlash tothe export of water out of KwaZulu-Natal to the Vaal River System? How canthis affect the long term sustainability of the TWP?

Context

The two poles of this debate are moving water from where it is found to where itis needed (resource capture), and moving the consumers and development tothe water source (spatial development). This is a strategic decision that onlygovernment can make. This issue deals with both political and legal action thatcould be taken to oppose and in the worst case stop the implementation of theTWP. Such action could be designed and timed to cause the maximum amountof nuisance and trouble. It could seriously embarrass the Government, causedelays, add a substantial amount to the costs of the project and jeopardise itssustainability.

Impact

Political tension between National, Provincial and local government bringing onincreasingly ineffectiveness of government.

Cause:

Possible increasing out-migration of economically active people from KwaZulu-Natal to the Vaal River supply area where water supply is assured to sustaineconomic development. Perception that this is detrimental to economic growth inKZN and uThukela Region leads to resistance from Provincial and local politicalgroups. Politicians and traditional leaders in KwaZulu-Natal prefer to keepdevelopment in the Province and stop economically active people from leaving.Local political use of the slogan “our water” by politicians, traditional leaders andsecessionist elements within KZN, who do not want to see their power base andsphere of influence diminished or who use it to pursue what they perceive asquite legitimate local political objectives could increase.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Effect:

Potential to hamstring and handicap viable government initiatives and activitieson a broad front, while attention and energy is focused on political posturingwhile the need to address the true social and economic issues are ignored.

Mitigation:

Inter Departmental liaison and proactive stance at a high level withingovernment, and by senior project and DWAF personnel. Implementation of theproposed Izimpondo Zenkunzi (horns of the bull) management solution, as setout in the report on hydro-political aspects of the TWP.

Comparison of alternatives - Political tensionsAUGMENTATION

OPTIONS

TWP NON

AUGMENTATION

DEMAND

MANAGEMENTIMPORTATION

Impact Type Negative no effect no effect no effectMagnitude HighProbability Probable

Significance Medium The same impact will not materialise in these alternatives

Significance aftermitigation

Low

5.1.4 Legal protection of rivers

What protection is there for rivers within the legal system of South Africa at thistime? Does the Thukela River merit special protection?

Context

There are indications that certain special interest groups are advocating specificlegislation for the added protection of rivers. Indications are that a Wild andScenic Rivers Act, along the lines of American legislation, is being called for bysome NGOs. This may gain momentum after the WCD findings are published.

Comment:

Rivers are not specifically protected in South African law. The protection given towater quality, ecosystems, biological diversity, aquatic life and the fact that aReserve must be established and other requirements all contribute to theprotection of rivers. The main source of protection for rivers is to be found ingenerally applicable legislation. Thus the principles contained in section 2 of theNational Environmental Management Act, 107 of 1998, though general in nature

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



effectively protects rivers as well. There are also several sections in the NationalWater Act, 36 of 1998 that have the effect of protecting rivers.

In principle, no river merits special protection. It is the total of the componentsthat determine the extent of the protection that should be afforded to a givenriver. In this regard the Thukela River may merit more protection than mostbecause it may be seen to have ecological or other value that could bedestroyed. There is however, no certainty on this issue.

5.1.5 Large dams

What significant implications and consequences are there for the DWAF inbuilding and operating large dams, in a global environment where such projectsare increasingly criticized as being inappropriate. Is such action by DWAFadvisable and appropriate, in the light of legal action or international pressure, orother forces or threats which can be brought to bear on DWAF?

Context

There is currently an international debate on the merits of large dams in solvingproblems of water resource management and water supply. The internationaldebate is distinctly North-centred, originating from disillusionment in developedcountries with the outcome and legacy of some of their major water projects, andnot only those built for water supply. It was for this reason that the WCD wasformed, to define the rules, processes and procedures that need to beconsidered when deciding to construct large dams such as the TWP. The finaloutcome of the WCD is not yet known, but it is unlikely to place a moratorium onthe construction of dams. This implies that provided the rules and procedures arefollowed. The overriding factor in this regard will be the relevance of these damsto political and economic processes in the overall social context.

Impact: International and domestic pressure brought to bear on DWAF specificallyand the Government in general, to postpone or even stop theimplementation of the TWP.

Cause: Perceptions of governments in the developed world, international aid andfunding agencies, investors and NGO’s, as well as local special interestgroups, that the construction and operation of large dams is not justifiable.

Effect: Diplomatic pressure, legal and civil court actions, timed to cause themaximum amount of nuisance and trouble. It could seriously embarrassthe Government, cause delays, add a substantial amount to the cost andjeopardise the entire project.

Mitigation: Development of an appropriate hydropolitical management strategy, basedon a full disclosure of facts and comprising a rational and coherent policyframework, within which the final decision will be made. Also thedevelopment and implementation of a culturally sensitive communicationstrategy, underpinned by innovative and thorough planning.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Comparison of alternatives - International and domestic pressure

AUGMENTATION

OPTIONS

TWP NON

AUGMENTATION

DEMAND

MANAGEMENT

IMPORTATION

Impact Type negative no effect positive NegativeMagnitude low low LowProbability probable probable Probable

Significance high low High


low low Low

5.1.6 Reserve

What effect will the determination of the Reserve in the Vaal and Thukela Rivershave on the supply of water from the Thukela to the Vaal River System?

Context

The National Water Act No 36 of 1998, makes provision for the determination ofthe Reserve, in sections 16, 17 and 18. The requirements in the Act regarding aReserve are of crucial importance. They establish a basic and non-negotiablequantity of water that must be made available.

Comment:

The amount of water that can be taken from the Thukela River and supplied tothe Vaal River system will be directly dependant on the quantity and quality ofthe Reserve that is determined. It has been found that sufficient water will beavailable for transfer after taking cognisance of the needs of in-basin users atleast up to 2035. This finding has been confirmed after assessing instream flowrequirements (IFR) as a first approximately of the Reserve. It is expected thatwhen a full determination is done, there will be sufficient water to justify the TWPand to still have a substantial amount available for allocation from the Thukela toother users.

5.1.7 AIDS

What implications and consequences for the TWP should be considered, bothfrom the side of the receiving environment as well as the source environment, asthe spread and effect of AIDS takes hold on the country, over the next two tothree decades?

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Context

Indications are that HIV / AIDS is likely to become by far the greatest health andsocio-economic problem facing the country over the next two decades. This isexactly the time during which decisions and action regarding the implementationand commissioning of the TWP will have to be taken. The rapidly escalatingincidence of HIV/AIDS in South Africa could therefore pose a variety of possibleimplications for the TWP, which need to be understood and dealt with in thedecision making process, before the final parameters of the project are fixed.

Impact:

Heightened economic risk for the TWP.

Cause:

Effect of AIDS on the national economy and its debilitating effect on individuals.

Effect:

Realignment of Government’s economic priorities and resources to deal with theeffects of AIDS. The TWP becomes a lower priority on the State’s agenda. AIDSaffects younger working adults and this leads to a decline in the numbers ofeconomically active people and slumping productivity. Disposable income isspent on dealing with the cost of infection, and has a direct influence on theability and willingness of people to pay for water.

Mitigation

Effects of AIDS brought into and considered in all decision making. Economic,financial and institutional models must be so constructed, that the effectsthat different AIDS scenarios might have on the viability of the TWP isclearly conveyed.

Comparison of alternatives - Economic effects of AIDSAUGMENTATION

OPTIONS

TWP NON

AUGMENTATION

DEMAND

MANAGEMENT

IMPORTATION

Impact Type Negative positive positive negativeMagnitude Medium low medium mediumProbability Probable probable probable probable

Significance High medium low high


Low medium low low

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



5.1.8 Decision record

What is the status of the decision record of policies considered by the DWAF forfuture increases in the supply of water to the Vaal River System?

Context

The legal order in South Africa has changed from one of parliamentarysovereignty to one of constitutional sovereignty. In an environment where rightsand not power are dominant, it is very important that a clear decision recordexists for a major intervention such as the TWP.

Comment:

In line with current Constitutional requirements and the legal framework in SouthAfrica, it is imperative that decision-makers clearly understand that anyadministrative actions taken should be seen to be not only lawful andprocedurally correct, but also to be reasonable. Those who made the decisioncan also be required to explain and justify the reasoning followed. If theimplementation of the TWP is approved, there must be good reason why it waschosen and why the other policy options were discarded. The record of decisionwill have to be complete.

5.1.9 Non-augmentation

What are the implications of non-augmentation for the economy of the country?

Context

The Vaal River System supplies the economic and industrial heartland of SouthAfrica. Any factor which affects this industrial and economic productivity will havea major effect on the economy of the country and the consequential impacts canbe expected to be felt well outside the borders of the country.

Impact:

Economic loss and potential decrease in economic growth in the nationaleconomy

Cause:

Frequency, duration and intensity of shortages exceed capacity to beaccommodated.

Effect:

Non-augmentation will necessitate the reallocation of water between different

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



user sectors and the Reserve, to supply human (domestic) requirements.Previous studies (1994) showed that non-augmentation would probably cause adecrease in the growth of the national economy. It was estimated that an annualloss in growth of 1% of the total value of the SA economy, would translate to aloss of approximately R7.4 billion/annum. The total cost of construction for theTWP is estimated at approximately R6.0 billion. If augmentation is not carriedout, it would potentially simulate trends synonymous with a slump in theeconomy which include job losses and increasing levels of unemployment,increased inflation, reduction in disposable incomes, and a shortage of funds(through taxes) for national development initiatives.

Mitigation:

Augmentation of the water resources of the Vaal River System.

Comparison of alternatives - decrease in economic growthAUGMENTATION

OPTIONS

TWP NON

AUGMENTATION

DEMAND

MANAGEMENT

IMPORTATION

Impact Type Negative negative positive negative

Magnitude Low low low low

Probability Probable probable probable probable

Significance High high low high


Low high low low

5.2 Regional level

In this section not all the issues, and hence not all the impacts have beenaddressed. Only those issues with significant impacts have been dealt with. Alist of the regional issues is given in section 3.2.2 above. It is at the regionallevel that the most significant effects, both positive and negative, of the TWP willbe experienced.

The use of alternatives in this section must be noted. Explanations of themeaning of alternatives is given in section 3.4.2 above.

5.2.1 Sedimentology

The TWP would be a major intervention into the functions of natural and socialsystems. What effect will:• sedimentological processes in the catchment,• natural functioning of a river of the size and nature of the Thukela,

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



• regional and local human activity and development, and• biodiversity considerations,have on the construction, commissioning, operation and de-commissioning of theproject?

Context

The importance of the “sediment driven” nature of the Thukela, and the relianceof the estuarine and offshore environment on this output of the river should notbe underestimated (Wadeson et al). Altering the flow or sediment loadcharacteristics of a river (first order impact) represents a change in primaryforces which shape the downstream environment.

Comment

A good understanding of the sedimentological processes in the Thukela Riverand, their cause and effect, is fundamentally important to a full understanding ofthe consequences that this will have on the sustainability of the TWP. In theTWP Feasibility Study a full understanding of the subject was not sought. Thedriving forces and the factors which influence the creation, composition, transportand deposition of sediment will have to be investigated during the decisionsupport phase or later. This should include factors such as regional and localhuman activity, land use, development activities, and biodiversity considerations.

Land-care projects are currently being implemented in the Upper Thukela RiverCatchment as a result of concerns that land degradation and erosion areimpacting negatively on the effective storage in Woodstock Dam. However, thelarge size of Jana Dam and, the fact that it is below Woodstock and SpioenkopDams, should prevent serious sediment accumulation problems occurring in theforeseeable future. Similarly, Mielietuin Dam is not far downstream of WagendriftDam and, significant sediment accumulation problems are not anticipated.

For both Jana and Mielietuin Dams, upstream human activity and developmentwill potentially impact negatively on the quality of water stored. This is ofparticular relevance to Mielietuin Dam, which is only a few kilometresdownstream of Estcourt because of the treated domestic and industrial effluentwhich is discharged back into the Bushman’s River at Estcourt. A similar, albeitless significant, concern exists for Jana Dam which is immediately downstreamof the residential and industrial areas of Ladysmith, Pieters and Ezakheni. Inboth cases, water quality concerns could be exacerbated if acceleratedeconomic growth is experienced in the greater Thukela River region.

Sediment accumulation in the resevoirs is probably less important than changesin river morphology.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



5.2.2 Thukela Banks

What effect will there be on the natural, social and economic environments of theThukela Banks, resulting from the reduction in flow of freshwater to the mouth ofthe Thukela River, caused by the TWP?

Context

The south-east African continental shelf widens considerably to more than 45 kmoff the Thukela River mouth, as a result of the sediments transported by the riverand deposited in the ocean. It is the only shelf area on the east coast of thecountry and, although the fauna of the Banks is not unique, the implementationof the TWP will have some effects on the shelf morphology and the biologicalsystems that have established themselves there. It is not known at this stage towhat degree the effects of climatic change and sea level rise may totally overrideany human induced impacts on the Thukela Banks. This requires furtherinvestigation.

Impact:

General decrease in sediment and nutrients supplied to the Banks

Cause:

Reduction in waterflow and the retention of sediments and nutrients within theimpoundments. Changes in land use in the catchment.

Effect:

Changes in the pattern of closure of the river mouth between May and Octoberannually, for periods of 3 to 5 months at a time, if flows of more than 1 m3/secare not maintained. Reduction in the sand/mud ratios in the Banks, so that themuddy areas increase. A reduction in prawn and other fisheries. Alteration ofbeach habitat north of the Thukela Mouth. Change in and reduction of thespecies composition and numbers due to an alteration of the habitat caused bydifferent sediment and nutrient dynamics.

Mitigation:

The dynamics of the Thukela Banks are not yet well understood and need furtherstudy. Monitoring of effects before during and after construction and duringoperation must be undertaken, particularly the effect of the application of theReserve determination. Compensation to be determined for a decline ofcommercial fishing and prawn fishing enterprises.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Comparison of alternatives - Changes to the Thukela Banks

ALTERNATIVE

SCENARIOS

WORSE - DECLINE AND

DEPRESSION

MORE OF THE SAME THUKELA RENAISSANCE

Impact Type negative negative negative

Magnitude high moderate low

Probability probable probable probable

Significance medium medium low


low low low

5.2.3 Support infrastructure

What effect will the provision of support infrastructure for the project, such asroad and power supply, have on the biophysical environment, people, andregional development of the areas surrounding the dam sites and conveyanceroutes and the Thukela catchment? Are there possible benefits for the region interms of utilising, or expanding the support infrastructure and services bothduring and following construction of the project?

Context

A considerable amount of new infrastructure will have to be built to support bothconstruction and operation of the TWP. This includes mainly roads and theprovision of additional power supplies. If correctly handled this can greatly assistregional development.

Benefit:

Regional economic stimulation.

Cause:

Increased economic activity in region because of focused regional investment inroads, power supply and other services.

Effect:

Greater regional economic empowerment and development. Increased jobopportunities from construction work and secondary and peripheral activities.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Enhancement:

Comprehensive regional development plan and implementation of integratedstrategic plans and spatial planning for regional and local government structures.Commitment from the TWP and proactive intervention in regional developmentthrough the provision of resources and skills to facilitate cooperative governanceinitiatives and fund institutional capacity building on a regional basis in theproject area, to ensure that maximum regional benefit is obtained frominvestment.

Comparison of alternatives - Regional economic stimulationALTERNATIVE

SCENARIOS

WORSE - DECLINE AND

DEPRESSION


Benefit positive positive positive

Magnitude moderate high very high

Probability probable probable probable

Significance low medium high

Significance afterenhancement

medium high very high

5.2.4 Export of Thukela River water

In what way will the economic development of the uThukela Region andKwaZulu-Natal be affected by the export of water out of the Thukela catchment?What is the opportunity cost to KwaZulu-Natal of exporting water out of theprovince?Context

During the different planning phases of the TWP, a planning horizon of 2035 wasused to consider the in-basin needs. Then applying conservative criteria, the in-basin needs were estimated and given priority supply in order to determine thetransferable yield from new dams.

Impact:

Long term restraint placed on economic development in KwaZulu-Nataldownstream of TWP.

Cause:

Less water available from the Thukela River to support regional developmentbecause of export to the VRSA. (opportunity cost).

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Effect:

Development in the uThukela Region as well as in downstream areas, may haveto be curtailed because of a shortage of water available from the Thukela River.

Mitigation:

In-basin requirements have received priority in allocation, as well as in otherareas who draw on water resources from the Thukela. Only a transferrablequantity of water was considered for export. It is even possible that transfersmay be curtailed in future if this is found to be necessary.

Comparison of alternatives - Curtailment of developmentALTERNATIVE

SCENARIOS

WORSE - DECLINE AND

DEPRESSION


Impact type negative negative Negative

Magnitude moderate low Low

Probability probable improbable Improbable

Significance medium low Low


low low Low

5.2.5 Crime and security

In what way will current levels of crime and security in the region be influencedby the TWP?

Context

There is a concern that the influx of people seeking employment and businessopportunities from the TWP may result in an escalation in crime. KwaZulu-Natalis estimated to have the third highest incidence of poverty in South Africa, adriving force behind criminal activity.

Impact:

Increased levels of crime and a deteriorating security situation.

Cause:

Poverty, AIDS orphans, Easier access throughout the region and at a local level,making movement easier for criminals and creating the opportunities for crime.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Many more people moving through a wider area because of improvedinfrastructure and easier access. Construction camps. Areas opened up alongaqueduct routes that would otherwise have restricted access.

Effect:

Insecurity, detraction from quality of life, wealth destruction, inequality in sharingof wealth, induced migration.

Mitigation:

Commitment from the TWP and proactive intervention in planning of regionalpolicing as part of integrated regional development plans and implementation ofintegrated strategic plans and spatial planning for regional and local governmentstructures. Provision of resources and skills to facilitate cooperative governanceinitiatives and fund institutional capacity building on a regional basis in theproject area. Effective communication, liaison and joint action by national,provincial and local government departments (e.g. co-ordination of budgetingprocedures and spending).

Comparison of alternatives - Increased crime and reduced security

ALTERNATIVE

SCENARIOS

WORSE - DECLINE AND

DEPRESSION


Impact type negative negative negative

Magnitude high moderate low

Probability probable probable improbable

Significance high medium Low


medium low Low

5.2.6 Forward and backward linkages

What are the social, economic, and biophysical forward and backward linkagesof the project on the regional resource use and development activities in theThukela catchment and KwaZulu-Natal?

Context

During the operational phase the TWP may only have a limited direct impact onthe uThukela Region as relatively few local inputs will be required. Therefore,

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



joint forward linkages to regional development and service provision plansshould be considered in such a way as to maximise meeting the needs of theregion during construction. However, currently other large infrastructureprojects, for example, the N3 toll Road over De Beers Pass Highway andBraamhoek Hydroelectric Pumped Storage Scheme, are being considered in theregion. Should the implementation of these projects occur concurrently with theTWP, much of the work will need to be out-sourced due to lack of capacity withinthe region. This will result in less benefit to the region than if the projects arescheduled incrementally for maximum local benefit. However, this needs to beviewed in the context that local and regional competencies and capacities may,in any event, be inadequate and insufficient for one large infrastructure project byitself, let alone three very big projects implemented simultaneously.

Comment:

Forward linkages include the provisions of services such as schools, clinics andother social services. Coordination of their development with the TWP willrequire liaison with and the involvement of other Government Departments, aswell as some form of a formal programme for interaction, implementation,monitoring and project management. The TWP can provide resources and skillsto facilitate cooperative governance initiatives and fund institutional capacitybuilding on a regional basis in the project area, in this respect.

The backward linkages should be sought in factors within the catchment, such asmigration, erosion, depopulation, climate, land reform which could affect thesustainability of the project through reduced water flow, sediment yield or otherconsiderations.

5.2.7 Migration

Will the development affect the movement or migration of people within thecatchment area of the Thukela River? How does this fit in with the existingregional planning scenarios? Will the project add to or detract from sustainabledevelopment in the region? How will this affect the main environmental factors(e.g. land degradation and resource use)?

Context

Migration and population movement are probably the most neglected of thesignificant dynamics behind rural poverty in South Africa. It appears that currentmigration patterns in KwaZulu-Natal are overwhelmingly rural to rural as highunemployment in urban shack settlements is making it increasingly difficult forrural dwellers to enter the urban economy. Therefore, as current populationmovements are largely contained within the uThukela Region, which is an areasusceptible to political disturbance, it is anticipated that there will be a largeproportion of local people moving to seek employment or business opportunities.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Impact:

Intensified and changed migration dynamics creates a more “foot-loose”population

Cause:

Rural poverty, AIDS, induced migration due to “pull” factors from increasedemployment opportunities offered by the TWP. “Push” factors includeopportunistic movement of people seeking work or providing services toemployers on the TWP, violence, (from internecine conflict or from criminalactivity), and also the influx of illegal immigrants.

Effect:

Pressure on existing services, schools, clinics, water, sanitation and othercommunity services. Overcrowding and growth of existing settlements andpossible establishment of new informal settlements. Increased levels of crime.Environmental sustainability and land production potential may be impactedupon should the state control “spare land” after buying commercial farmland. It isanticipated that this land will be rapidly settled informally and this may result inland degradation and nonsustainable resource use occurring.

Mitigation:

Proactive participation by TWP project, to take a lead and accept jointresponsibility in social upliftment programmes, together with other governmentdepartments, to participate in, to fund and to facilitate what is in effectcooperative governance programme. This will need an urgent and strategicpolicy decision from DWAF and probably at Cabinet level. Educationprogrammes for project personnel. Proactive participation and support by TWPfor integrated regional development plans and implementation of integratedstrategic plans and spatial planning for regional and local government structures.This would include effective communication, liaison and joint action by national,provincial and local government departments (e.g. co-ordination of budgetingprocedures and spending).

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Comparison of alternatives – Migration

ALTERNATIVE

SCENARIOS

WORSE - DECLINE AND

DEPRESSION


Impact type Negative negative Negative

Magnitude High moderate low

Probability Probable probable improbable

Significance High medium low


Low low low

5.2.8 Public health and disease

What are the public health and disease impacts associated with the TWPincluding HIV / AIDS in the regional context?

Context

In the light of the possible migration of people and the increase in the number ofinformal settlements, it is believed that the impact and spread of AIDS will be feltnot only in the region but also in the home regions of the migrant labourers.However, the impact of this spread of AIDS will not necessarily be significant asthe AIDS infection and death rate over the greater region and the country isexpected to reach its plateau before the construction of the TWP will commence.It is important that death due to AIDS in the informal settlements, labour campsand in the work force as a whole, be addressed and anticipated during planning.Other public health and disease impacts that need to be addressed are bilharziaand, the spread of malaria to an area currently regarded as malaria-free.

Impact:

Raised levels of health risk on a regional basis.

Cause:

Large scale and extended construction activities, influx and movement of peoplewithin the region, decreased social cohesion, the creation of large open bodies ofwater and the operation of dams. Changing climatic conditions.

Effect:

Health hazards do currently exist in the form of Malaria, Schistosomiasis anddiarrhoeal disease. Where climatic conditions are favourable (warming) and

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



people have a greater access to open water occurrence of these diseases willincrease. The spread of malaria, and its impact on tourism operations areregarded as potentially significant.

Mitigation:

Screen all migrant labour for HIV / AIDS, malaria and Schistosomiasis at firstarrival at the site and at successive returns after visits away from the site.Conduct a baseline survey of the potential mosquito vector population in themonth of February, prior to the initiation of construction activities. A similarbaseline needs to be established for the snail vectors of Schistosomiasis. Abaseline assessment of the current situation relating to snail vectors in the damsin the upper Thukela catchment must be done, and then monitored in all theimpoundments thereafter. Ongoing monitoring of downstream contamination withfaecal contaminants such as Escheri Coli needs to be carried out.

Comparison of alternatives - Public healthALTERNATIVE

SCENARIOS

WORSE - DECLINE AND

DEPRESSION


Impact type negative negative Negative

Magnitude low low Low

Probability probable probable Improbable

Significance medium low Low


low low Low

5.2.9 Environmental indicators

What are the most important environmental indicators that should be used tomonitor the long term effects and sustainability of the scheme?

Context

It is important that sustainability objectives are formulated for the TWP, and aretranslated into context-specific criteria and indicators. These objectives, criteriaand indicators should relate to the important environmental resources of theregion and to the nature and scale of the project. The objectives are generic,commonly recognised requirements for the sustainability of resources. Theyrelate to a particular area, scale and level of decision-making. The sustainabilityobjectives may then be translated into sustainability criteria which reflect thesocial, economic and biophysical context of the project. The criteria are typicallybased on limits for acceptable change within the environment and may bequantitative or qualitative. (Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism)

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Measurable sustainability indicators may then be identified to determinewhether the criteria are being met. For example, in the case of the TWP, thewater resources of the region would be an indicator express as MAR, river flows,water quality, silt load, at various points and for different times of the year.

Comment:

No specific recommendations have been made in the environmental feasibilitystudy to identify or use any specific environmental indicators. This aspect willhave to be addressed in the detailed environmental investigations undertakenduring the decision support phase and the implementation phase of the TWP.

5.2.10 Natural resource utilisation

What will the impact of the TWP be on natural resource utilisation in the ThukelaBasin? Specifically, what effect will there be on resource supply and the futureconsumption of basic natural goods, game carrying capacity and game huntingenterprises, micro-enterprises associated with natural products, and options forfurther use?

Context

A number of communities within the area depend on direct access to andutilisation of the region’s natural resources. These resources meet daily needs,such as firewood for cooking purposes, and also provide income earningopportunities such as craft production and the sale of medicinal plants.Resources which hold importance and intrinsic high value for these people willbe lost when large sections of the Thukela River valley are inundated. The influxof construction workers and employment seekers and the remaining resourcesafter inundation will result in the current and future available resources beingplaced under additional pressure. This will have a significant impact on the abilityof the land to sustain the local population and subsequent harvesting pressures.

Impact:

Diminished natural resource base for use by communities, business andagriculture.

Cause:

Flooding of large areas by dams and canal servitude splitting land into units thatmay be unproductive.

Effect:

Diminished opportunities for harvesting of indigenous plant resources oncommunally owned land by some tribally based communities, thereby reducingtrade and consumption opportunities. In addition local communities will haveless options for obtaining firewood, grazing for livestock, materials for housingand fencing, medicinal plant resources and craft materials. It is therefore likely

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



that as a result of flooding, there will be increased pressure on the remainingsupply of these resources in the region. This could result in acceleratedresource depletion and degradation of high value medicinal plant resources andcraft resources the region. Movement of game will become restricted anddisrupted in the area between the Thukela and Bushmans Rivers. The totalamount of land available for both subsistence and commercial agriculture will bereduced, in terms of both crop farming and the raising of livestock.

Mitigation:

Compensation for the cost of lost business and opportunity costs. Financing thecost of marketing to regain previous business levels. Support for commercialpropagation of high value resources locally. All actions to be taken up inintegrated regional development plans and implementation of integrated strategicplans and spatial planning for regional and local government structures.

Comparison of alternatives - Diminished natural resource baseALTERNATIVE

SCENARIOS

WORSE - DECLINE AND

DEPRESSION


Impact type Negative Negative negative

Magnitude Medium Low low

Probability Probable Probable probable

Significance High Medium low


Low Low low

5.2.11 Tourism

What are the implications of the TWP for eco-tourism in the upper ThukelaBasin? How will tourism based on important historical, archaeological andcultural sites in the region be influenced?

Context

The local tourism industry makes an important contribution to the regionaleconomy. The industry is largely based on the natural, cultural and historicalresources and landscape assets of the region. These include:

• the rivers, wildlife, vegetation, and wilderness areas.• battlefields and memorials, • Bushman paintings, Voortrekker sites, and other archaeological

localities.

There are a range of Nguni, Bushmen and Anglo-Boer War sites of historical andcultural importance. A survey of the archaeological sites revealed 50 sites in the

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Jana Dam basin, four in the Mielietuin Dam basin, 40 along the proposed canalroute and 27 along the pipeline route. These sites range from the Middle StoneAge (150 000 to 30 000 years ago) through to the Historical Period (AD 1829 to50 years ago).

Impact 1:

Loss of wilderness atmosphere and disruption of existing regional eco-tourismoperations.

Cause:

Flooding of Jana and Mielietuin Basins will inundate existing wild andundeveloped areas. There will be partial flooding of natural features such as theThukela Gorge, Little Niagra waterfall and rapids which have been given names,such as the ‘washing machine’. In addition, new support infrastructure for theconstruction and operational phases of the project will bring construction trafficand increased development activity, and will not be conducive to preserving thewilderness character of the region on which current eco-tourism largely depends.All of these factors will cause the regional character to change and the sense ofplace will be affected.

Effect:

Reduced visitor numbers and tourism revenues and possible closure of someenterprises, reducing the total number of beds available on a regional basis. Inaddition, increased crime rates and decreased road safety during theconstruction phase could add to the slump. The greatest disruptions are likely tooccur during the construction phase.

Mitigation:

Compensation and change of character of regional tourism from wildernesssense of place to a water based industry.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Comparison of alternatives - Disruption of eco-tourism operations

ALTERNATIVE

SCENARIOS

WORSE - DECLINE AND

DEPRESSION


Impact type negative Negative Negative

Magnitude medium Low Low

Probability probable Probable Improbable

Significance medium Low Low


low low Low

Impact 2:

Creation of new tourism opportunities.

Cause:

The development of the dams at Jana and Mielietuin would result in the creation ofnew tourism assets in the construction and later formation of large water bodies.

Effect:

During construction, there will be a major opportunity for tourism based on theconstruction activities, Later, as the lakes are formed, this would create the opportunityfor a range of new recreational activities such as sailing, camping, sightseeing, andfishing. Releases of water from the dams for river maintenance could provide newregular and sustained opportunities for downstream river activities such as kayakingand river rafting. These new enterprises would increase the diversity of tourist andrecreation activities in the region. Secondary support services in the form ofaccommodation, refreshment, curio and handcraft trading would also increase. All ofthis would add to the demand for tourism services in the region.

Enhancement:

Formal support from TWP and regional and local authorities for identification ofentrepreneurs and assistance in the establishment of new businesses.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Comparison of alternatives - New tourism opportunitiesALTERNATIVE

SCENARIOS

WORSE – DECLINE AND

DEPRESSION


Impact type Positive positive positive

Magnitude Low low medium

Probability Probable probable definite

Significance Low medium medium


Low medium high

5.2.12 Legal and administrative factors

What important legal and administrative factors should be considered at aregional level to ensure that the TWP is constructed and operated in anenvironmentally sustainable and acceptable manner?

Comment:

It is important to note that most major legal and administrative decisions that ledto investigation on proposals of the TWP and determined the dam sites withinthe catchment, were taken at a national level. Thus, the factors that need to beconsidered at a regional level are those that evaluate how the project should beimplemented within the important legal factors, to limit any adverse impacts ofthe project. The broad principles of environmental law will have to be applied ina fairly supple manner to ensure compliance. Although this framework ispresently being finalised, a range of factors, such as the following, need to beconsidered:• The management and mitigation of cumulative impacts that the

proposed project may have on the region.• Alternatives in design, timing and management approaches must be

considered and evaluated within reasonable legal parameters.• Demonstrate that all external costs arising from impacts resulting from

the proposed project have been internalised, have been, and, thus, willbe funded by the project. This has particular relevance to aspects thatmay fall under the responsibility of other government departments yethave occurred as a direct result of DWAF’s actions.

The exact details of the planning legislation and other statutes, as well as theextent of their applicability to TWP, are not yet fully defined. The existingplanning and legal framework in which the project is being investigated wasdesigned for a totally different constitutional dispensation. The KwaZulu-NatalPlanning and Development Act (PDA) has not yet been implemented and it is

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



understood that promulgation is likely to happen during 2001. This would be themain piece of strictly planning legislation that DWAF will have to comply with.

There is also some doubt about the extent to which the Development FacilitationAct (DFA) may be used. However, an application for authorisation in terms ofthe Environment Conservation Act, 1989, will be submitted at the appropriatetime. In environmental management terms, the requirements of the NWA andNEMA relating to sustainable development need to be very thoroughlyunderstood and applied during all the phases of the TWP which lie ahead.

5.3 Site specific level

5.3.1 Dam basins and riverine habitats

What will be the effect of construction and operation of the dams on theecosystems and organisms in the dam basins and downstream riverine andaquatic habitats?Context

The TWP will convert sections of the Thukela and Bushmans Rivers from naturalriver systems to man-made lake environments. The natural river environmentwill be replaced with new lacustrine environments. Downstream of the dams theriver will be regulated. A scheme the size of the TWP will significantly alter thehydrology of the river, which will in turn impact on the geomorphology. A changein the combination of these components will result in an altered habitat foraquatic organisms and riparian vegetation.

Impact 1:

Destruction of an area containing a unique and endangered terrestrialecosystem.

Cause:

Construction of dams, flooding of basins and operation of dams.

Effect:

Loss of a contiguous area of northern Valley Bushveld in the Jana Basin, whichis an endemic and threatened veld type in KwaZulu-Natal. Reduction ofpopulation sizes of plants and animals, and associated disruption of theecosystem, genetic impoverishment and species extinction. Loss of importantand threatened animal species, and there are indications of new undiscoveredspecies being lost as well.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Mitigation:

Extensive and comprehensive survey of terrestrial biodiversity in Jana Basin.Mitigation action will be difficult since a large area from a natural system which isendemic to KwaZulu-Natal will be destroyed. Securing an equivalent areacomprising Valley Bushveld, the same as that which will be inundated, is oneoption. However, such an action must meet many specific requirements andwould take many years to accomplish.

Comparison of alternatives - Destruction of terrestrial ecosystem at JanaALTERNATIVE

OPTIONS

MAX WALL HEIGHT OPTIMAL WALL HEIGHT NO-GO OPTION

Impact type Negative negative no effect

Magnitude High high no effect

Probability Definite definite no effect

Significance High high no effect


High high no effect

Impact 2:

Disturbance to downstream riverine habitats and eco systems.

Cause:

Water storage conditions which alter the physical and chemical nature of the storedwater, operation of dams and water releases downstream.

Effect:

The dams will alter the current hydrological regime and sediment flows through thesystem. If there is less water and less sediment flowing through the system, it willresult in aggradation in the middle and lower reaches smothering the pool and rifflehabitat. Alterations to the flood regime, particularly medium sized floods, will result inthe loss of certain fish and invertebrate species and reduction in populations of others.Certain exotic species (carp) will dominate at the expense of indigenous species.Artificial flows from valve testing will cause confusion in certain species as it will resultin altered cues for life cycle change such as spawning, the drowning of eggs, and mayalso leave invertebrates stranded. Immediately downstream of the dams extensivescouring will take place, resulting in the total degradation of the existing habitat at thatpoint. Due to various processes which take place in a lake environment, the physicaland chemical nature of the water in the impoundment will vary considerably from that

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



in the river system. The reduced water quality from the dam will impact on the river forat least 30 km downstream. This impact may be in the form of fluctuating iron andmanganese concentrations, an altering pH value, concentrations of ammonia anddifferences in water temperatures released.

Mitigation:

Appropriate operating rules for the dams, linked to the requirements of the Reserve.

Comparison of alternatives - Disturbance to riverine habitats and ecosystemsALTERNATIVE OPTIONS MAX WALL HEIGHT OPTIMAL WALL HEIGHT NO-GO OPTION

Impact type Negative negative no effect

Magnitude Medium medium no effect

Probability Definite definite no effect

Significance Medium medium no effect


Low low no effect

5.3.2 Compensation

What recommendations should be made to DWAF for the following:• compensation for loss of arable land, fixed property or other similar loss of

patrimony• resettlement as a result of the construction of infrastructure, flooding or other

social and operational aspects of the TWP?

Context

Approximately 74 private landowners, approximately 40 labourer families, 2tenant families, and members of the Mzinyonke, Mankandane, andLabuschagnes Kraal, communities, a total of about 400 to 450 households, willbe affected either economically or physically by the TWP. These people willeither be affected by the rising water levels or will be impinged on by theconstruction of aqueducts and other infrastructure.

Impact:

Economic, physical and cultural disruption to people.

Cause:

Construction of TWP infrastructure, flooding as the impoundments are formedand other operational aspects of the TWP.

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Effect:

Homesteads, villages and graves will be flooded and there will be a loss ofnatural resources that will affect the economic viability of communities. Bothcommunal subsistence agriculture and commercial farming enterprises on arableland and grazing land will be affected. The total number of people affected willnot be greatly influenced by variations in the final heights of the dam walls, of thefinal aqueduct type and route chosen. At least two farms at Mielietuin wouldhave to be bought out entirely as they would no longer be viable enterprises.The aqueducts and pump stations will result in various subdivisions and theoperation and access to the pump stations will require additional land purchases.Mitigation:

Compensation. Relocation. The issue of relocation or resettlement is a highlyemotive and sensitive. Resettlement should be undertaken according to WorldBank Directive 4.30: Involuntary Resettlement. An overview of theserequirements is as follows:• Organisational Responsibilities.

- National Government.- Provincial and Local Government.- Traditional Authorities.- Support organisations and NGOs.

• Legal Framework.- The power of the eminent domain.- Applicable South African legislation.- Implications for the Resettlement Action Plan.- Grievance mechanism.

• Baseline Data.- Social and socio-economic environments of re-settlers.- Social and socio-economic environments of hosts .- Natural (biophysical) environment.

• Compensation- Compensation principles.- Eligibility.- Entitlement matrices.- Valuation and compensation methodologies and processes.

• Resettlement Assistance and After-care.- Organisational responsibilities.- Processes and procedures.- Monitoring and evaluation.- Resettlement Programming and Scheduling.- Resettlement Cost Estimates.

Importantly, social impacts such as resettlement should be carefullymonitored by international funding organisations, especially after the focusthat the resettlement of directly affected people received from the World

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



Commission on Dams. Consideration will have to be given tocompensation for loss of communal land for grazing and natural resourceharvesting, allocated agricultural land, housing and infrastructure, and theeffects on the receiving community. The process must be plannedcarefully, transparently and inclusively. If not handled properly, it has thepotential to substantially disrupt the implementation of the TWP.

Comparison of alternatives - Disruption to people.

ALTERNATIVE

OPTIONS

MAX WALL HEIGHT OPTIMAL WALL HEIGHT NO-GO OPTION

Impact type negative Negative no effect

Magnitude high High no effect

Probability definite Definite no effect

Significance high High no effect


medium Medium no effect

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



6. CLOSING REMARKS

The process followed in the assessment of the environmental feasibility of theTWP led to some important conclusions and highlighted a number of significantissues that will have to be dealt with in further investigations.

The TWP is a major intervention by government in the economic, social andecological environment, not only in the uThukela Region but also at a nationallevel. Within the context of the current constitutional and general legalframework in South Africa, it is imperative that considerations of sustainability begiven appropriate attention in the decision-making processes. It is not sufficientto consider environmental impacts at a site specific level only, and failure tobroaden the scope of assessment could materially affect the viability of theproject. The TWP Project Management Team gave the important directive thatthe feasibility of the TWP had to be tested at national, regional and site specificlevels. This Summary Report documents the outcome of this study.

No single factor was found which unequivocally states that the implementation ofthe TWP should be stopped or modified in some major way. There are howevercertain key elements and issues that should be brought to the attentin ofdecision-makers.

At a national policy level, the ongoing debate around the relevance and merits oflarge dams must be followed with care and investigation procedures adaptedwhere necessary. The international debate is distinctly North-centred, originatingfrom disillusionment in developed countries with the outcome and legacy ofsome of their major water projects, and not only those built for water supply.International and domestic pressure could be brought to bear on DWAFspecifically and the Government in general, to postpone or even stop theimplementation of the TWP. However, this can be mitigated if an appropriatehydropolitical management strategy for the implementation of the TWP isdeveloped. It must be based on a full disclosure of facts and comprising arational and coherent policy framework, within which the final decision will bemade. A culturally sensitive communication strategy, underpinned by innovativeand thorough planning, must also be developed.

At a regional level, the TWP presents a notable opportunity to stimulate and kickstart considerable development and economic empowerment in the uThukelaRegion. However, this is unlikely to occur if comprehensive regionaldevelopment plans and integrated strategic plans and spatial planning forregional and local government structures are not drawn up and implemented. Todo this effectively, will require proactive participation within the TWP institutionalframework, to take a lead and accept joint responsibility in social upliftmentprogrammes. This must involve other government departments, and the TWPmust participate in, fund and facilitate what is in effect co-operative governanceprogramme. This will need an urgent and strategic policy decision from DWAF

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



and probably at Cabinet level to make it possible. It would be an effective way ofensuring effective communication, liaison and joint action by national, provincialand local government departments (e.g. co-ordination of budgeting proceduresand spending).

At a site specific level, feasibility investigations have revealed that there will be aloss of a large contiguous area of northern Valley Bushveld in the Jana Basin,which is an endemic and threatened veld type in KwaZulu-Natal. There will be areduction of population sizes of plants and animals, and associated disruption ofthe ecosystem, genetic impoverishment and species extinction. Loss ofimportant and threatened animal species will also take place and there areindications of new undiscovered species being lost as well. It is thereforeimportant that an extensive and comprehensive survey of terrestrial biodiversityin Jana Basin be carried out during the decision support phase of the TWP. Thisissue is even more important because of certain legal principles in NEMA, andinternational agreements on biodiversity, of which South Africa is a signatory.

Because of the Constitutional requirements that “everyone has the right toadministrative action that is lawful, reasonable and procedurally fair”, it isimperative that all administrative actions taken in respect of the TWP, should beseen to be not only lawful and procedurally correct, but also to have beenreasonable. To this end, a so-called Project Briefing Document (PBD) should beprepared in the following phases of project development. The purpose of thePBD is to record all the main decisions that are made with respect to theenvironmental management of the TWP. It will build on documentation alreadyproduced during the feasibility investigation. The PBD will set out thebackground to any decisions taken, the status quo as to current decisions andthe way forward. Where a decision is made not to revisit any previous issues,that fact will also be stated. A well thought through array of information will berecorded to enable any person and member of any stakeholder group, toevaluate the decisions made as the TWP has progressed.

The Way Forward

i) Determination of the Reserve and formulation of a strategy for themanagement of the water resources of the Thukela River, as part of anational water resource strategy, should be put in hand without delay.

ii) If there is to be continued economic growth and development in SouthAfrica and in the Vaal River System, then augmentation of water resourcesmust be undertaken. If a decision is made not to augment, it wouldpotentially simulate trends synonymous with a slump in the nationaleconomy which includes job losses and increasing levels ofunemployment, increased inflation, reduction in disposable incomes, and ashortage of funds (through taxes) for national development initiatives.

iii) The TWP does create the possibility of causing political tension betweenNational, Provincial and local government and thereby impacting on the

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



effectiveness of government in general. This emanates from perceptionscreated around the export of water from KwaZulu-Natal. Contingencyplanning should be done to effectively deal with the phenomena and toneutralise any actions that may be taken, so that it need not become asignificant factor affecting the feasibility of the project.

iv) It is possible that international and domestic pressure can be brought tobear on DWAF specifically and the Government in general, which MAYpostpone or even stop the implementation of the TWP. This is caused bythe perceptions of governments in the developed world, international aid,funding agencies and investors and NGO’s at all levels, that theconstruction and operation of large dams is not acceptable in the moderntime. However, once again there are effective ways of dealing with this.

v) Issue around the effects of AIDS must be more fully understood before afinal decision is made to implement the TWP.

vi) The TWP presents a notable opportunity to stimulate and kick startconsiderable development and economic empowerment in the uThukelaRegion. However, this will not occur if comprehensive regionaldevelopment plans and integrated strategic plans and spatial planning forregional and local government structures are not drawn up andimplemented. To do this effectively, will require proactive participationwithin the TWP institutional framework, to take a lead and accept jointresponsibility in social upliftment programmes. This must involve othergovernment departments, and the TWP should, if possible, participate in,fund and facilitate what is in effect a co-operative governance programme.What is even more important is that urgent and strategic policy decisionsneed to be taken in DWAF and probably at Cabinet level, to make sure thatappropriate co-operative governance was instituted for the TWP. It wouldbe an effective way of ensuring effective communication, liaison and jointaction by national, provincial and local government departments (e.g. co-ordination of budgeting procedures and spending).

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________THUKELA WATER PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY

ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTxii

Figure 1: Locality Plan

March 2001 PB V000-00-6200_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________THUKELA WATER PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY

ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY REPORTxiii

Date post:	18-Oct-2019
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	9 times
Download:	1 times

Thukela Water Project Feasibility Study - dwa.gov.za Feasibility... · Thukela Water Project...

Documents