Post on 12-Jan-2016
transcript
Transport infrastructure challenges ahead
Glen Malam
Statistical Officer – BITRE
BITRE Transport Colloquium
18 – 19 June 2008
Transport infrastructure challenges ahead
• What do we mean by transport infrastructure?• Recent trends• Forecast transport activity• Challenges ahead
Infrastructure Australia Act 2008
Nationally significant infrastructure includes:a) transport infrastructure; and b) energy infrastructure; andc) communications infrastructure; andd) water infrastructure;
Infrastructure Australia Act 2008
Nationally significant infrastructure includes:a) transport infrastructure; and b) energy infrastructure; andc) communications infrastructure; andd) water infrastructure;in which investment or further investment will materiallyimprove national productivity.
Transport infrastructure challenges ahead
• What do we mean by transport infrastructure?• Recent trends• Forecast transport activity• Challenges ahead
Infrastructure construction expenditure – mostly on roads
Source: Engineering Construction Activity, Australia (ABS cat. no. 8762.0)
Transport infrastructure construction expenditure2005-06 prices
Roads and bridges
Railways
Ports and harbours0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07
$ b
illi
on
Infrastructure – public road-related expenditure actual expenditure
Source: Public Road Related Expenditure and Revenue in Australia (BITRE Information Sheet 27)
Public road-related expenditure
current prices
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1985-86 1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04
$ b
illi
on
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infrastructure – public road-related expenditure road construction price index
Source: Public Road Related Expenditure and Revenue in Australia (BITRE Information Sheet 27)
Public road-related expenditure
current prices
Road construction price index
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1985-86 1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04
$ b
illi
on
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Ind
ex
Infrastructure – public road-related expenditure adjusted for road construction prices
Source: Public Road Related Expenditure and Revenue in Australia (BITRE Information Sheet 27)
Public road-related expenditure2004-05 prices
adjusted by road construction price
index
current prices
Road construction price index
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1985-86 1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04
$ b
illi
on
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Ind
ex
Infrastructure – private sector construction
Source: Engineering Construction Activity, Australia (ABS cat. no. 8762.0)
Infrastructure construction expenditure on roads and bridges
2005-06 prices
private sector for private sector
private sector for public sector
public sector
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07
$ b
illi
on
Transport infrastructure challenges ahead
• What do we mean by transport infrastructure?• Recent trends• Forecast transport activity• Challenges ahead
Domestic non-bulk freight up 80% by 2020
Source: Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia (BTRE Report 112), updated
Non-bulk freight
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Mill
ion
ton
ne
kilo
me
tre
s
Aviation
Shipping
Rail
Road
Forecasts
Domestic bulk freight up almost 60% by 2020
Source: Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia (BTRE Report 112), updated
Bulk freight
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Mill
ion
ton
ne
kilo
me
tre
s
Shipping
Rail
Road
Forecasts
Container port traffic more than double by 2020
Source: Container and Ship Movements Through Australian Ports (BTRE Working Paper 65)
Containerised trade for major ports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Forecasts
Sta
ndard
co
nta
iners
(m
illio
n)
Fremantle
Adelaide
Melbourne
Sydney
Brisbane
Urban road traffic up 40% by 2020
Source: Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian cities (BITRE Working Paper 71)
Capital city vehicle traffic
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Kilom
etr
es (
billion)
Motorcycles
Buses
Articulated trucks
Rigid trucks
Light commercials
Cars
Forecasts
Transport infrastructure challenges ahead
• What do we mean by transport infrastructure?• Recent trends• Forecast transport activity• Challenges ahead
Key transport infrastructure questions• Do we currently have enough or is there a deficit?• What infrastructure will be needed in the future and where?• Who should be doing the spending?• How to manage construction industry overload?