Brain DrainUnderstanding the Sources

The Project Team

Tiffany FosterMISMDecember 2012Geoffrey SnowMBA/MSPPMAugust 2013

Agenda Literature Review Problem Statement Project Goals Data Sources and Indicators Methodology Results Recommendations

1 International Organization for Migration. World Migration 2003: Linkages between Brain Drain, Labour Migration and Remittances in Africa. 2003.

Literature Review Brain Drain1

“the cross-border movement of highly skilled persons who stay abroad for a longer period of time”

Highly skilled persons have or are working towards a university degree

Literature Review

Brain Drain

Marfouk

Mills

Oyelere

Literature Review

• 190 countries impacted by brain drainMarfouk

• Economic losses from medical professionals being trained at home and then leavingMills

• Social losses from lack of medical professionals in regions that desperately need itOyelere

Literature ReviewPromoting

Retention by Providing Incentives Facilitating

Conditions for Returnees

Strengthening Temporary

Engagement of the Intellectual

Diaspora

Mobilizing the Diaspora through

Virtual Participation

Establishing a Reliable

Database on the African Diaspora

Improving Information

Provision to the Diaspora

Developing Intellectual Diaspora Networks

Improving Mechanisms for

Remittances

Formulating a National Diaspora

PolicyEstablishing Governmental Diaspora Office

Increasing Commitment of

African Governments

Promoting International Organizations

Initiatives

Woldetensae12 ways to control

Brain Drain

Problem Statement Why are these solutions not working?

Researchers indicate financial motivation Hypothesis: The true sources of brain drain may not have

been properly identified. Governance?

Project Goals

• Data AnalysisUnderstand

Sources of Brain Drain

• Literature ReviewProvide Policy

Recommendations

Data Sources and Indicators

Brain Drain Source Analysis

World Economic Outlook

Database

Worldwide Governance Indicators Database

Brain Drain Database

Data Sources and Indicators Brain Drain Database

Brain Drain Country Brain Gain Country Total Primary Secondary Tertiary No_Answer

Brain Drain Source Analysis

World Economic Outlook

Database

Worldwide Governance Indicators Database

Brain Drain Database

Data Sources and Indicators Worldwide Governance

Indicators Database Voice and Accessibility Political Stability and

Absence of Violence Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption

Brain Drain Source Analysis

World Economic Outlook

Database

Worldwide Governance Indicators Database

Brain Drain Database

Data Sources and Indicators World Economic Outlook

Database Inflation Gross domestic product,

current prices Purchasing Power Parity Population Unemployment Rate

Brain Drain Source Analysis

World Economic Outlook

Database

Worldwide Governance Indicators Database

Brain Drain Database

Data Sources and Indicators

Brain Drain Source Analysis

World Economic Outlook

Database

Worldwide Governance Indicators Database

Brain Drain Database

Common year: 2000 Only “tertiary” migration

considered

Methodology

Multivariate Regression

Correlation Analysis

Multi-collinearity Among

Independent Variables

Results

Poor Governance

Indicator Performance

Educated workforce Brain Drain

Expected Results

Poor Governance

Indicator Performance

Educated workforce

Not a strong Correlation

to Brain Drain

Actual Results

Resultstertiary

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.19526p-value 0.01365H0 (2%) rejected

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.05861p-value 0.46302H0 (2%) accepted

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.24708p-value 0.00169H0 (2%) rejected

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.23326p-value 0.00309H0 (2%) rejected

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.18888p-value 0.01711H0 (2%) rejected

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.20573p-value 0.00928H0 (2%) rejected

RegQuality

RuleofLaw

Corruption

EMIGRATION

Voice

Stability

GovtEffectiveness

• There is statistical significance for 5 out of the 6 variables

• However the correlation is small

• Opposite of expected correlation value

• Shows that the education population migrates when governance indicators are positive

Resultstertiary

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.09664p-value 0.6247H0 (2%) accepted

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.03526p-value 0.85862H0 (2%) accepted

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.18327p-value 0.35056H0 (2%) accepted

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.23126p-value 0.23639H0 (2%) accepted

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.13007p-value 0.50946H0 (2%) accepted

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.10656p-value 0.5894H0 (2%) accepted

Stability

GovtEffectiveness

RegQuality

RuleofLaw

Corruption

IMMIGRATION

Voice

• No metrics are statistically significant

• Expect governance indicators to be positive to attract educated talent

• Perhaps reasoning for Brain Drain is more economic than governmental

Results• Two variables are

statistically significant• Strong correlation for GDP

and Population• Countries that attract

educated migrants have strong GDP and larger populations

• Intuitive, strong economy attracts a talented workforce

• Larger population size accepts more educated migrants

tertiaryPearson Correlation Coefficient -0.07306

p-value 0.71724H0 (2%) accepted

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.87227p-value 0.H0 (2%) rejected

Pearson Correlation Coefficient -0.12087p-value 0.54815H0 (2%) accepted

Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.81821p-value 0.H0 (2%) rejected

Pearson Correlation Coefficient -0.10157p-value 0.61419H0 (2%) accepted

Unemployment rate

IMMIGRATION

Inflation

Gross domestic product, current prices

Implied PPP conversion rate

Population

Recommendations

Pull Better job opportunities

flexible career paths higher pay good working

conditionsprospects for professional development

Political stability

Push Lack of jobs low payunsatisfactory

living and working

conditions

limited career opportunities

low prospect of professional development

poor social conditions

Addressing Woldetensae’s Factors

Recommendations

Address through Policy• Push• Pull

Brain Drain

Recommendations

Economic Growth

Jobs

• Develop industries that support an educated workforce

• Jobs that compensate competitively will retain talent

• Enact provisions to retain talent within borders

• Synergy created where educated workforce drives economy to flourish

Appendix

Methodology Multi-collinearity among independent variables