COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast 5/20/2004 1 2004...

5/20/2004 1COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group

2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast


May 2004

David Pollock

The Boeing Company



Introduction

• COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast– Updated annually since 1993– Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing

enhancements– 10-year forecast horizon (2004-2013)

• Total demand is lower than the 2003 forecast– 211 satellites vs. 233 satellites in 2003 forecast (9% lower)

• 2004 report offers some new insights into industry trends:– Estimate of “realization” of demand expanded to first three years

of the forecast– Analysis of growth in satellite mass and transponders per

satellite presented– Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand discussed



2003 GSO Demand Forecast Team

Alexander Liang (T&IWG chair) Aerospace Corporation

David Pollock (forecast chair) Boeing Rocketdyne

Darren Chambo Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company

I-Shih Chang Aerospace Corporation

Gary Goodwin Sea Launch

Ethan Haase Lockheed Martin / International Launch Services

Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services

B. Ray Hawkins Aerospace Corporation

Bill Hayes Space Systems / Loral

Joe Hopkins Consultant

Doug Howe Boeing Satellite Systems

Mike Izzo Asia Pacific Space Center

Debra Lepore Kistler Aerospace Corporation

Jennifer Miceli Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/EV

John Sloan FAA AST



Forecast Methodology

• Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites launched from satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch service providers worldwide– Individual demand requirements from operators– Comprehensive market inputs from manufacturers and launch providers– Projections by mass class

• Develop Near-Term (2004-2006) Mission Model– “Bottom-up” forecast of launch opportunities by name– Consensus forecast based on most recent information– Individual inputs from operators used as available– Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed upon by panel

• Develop Long-Term (2007-2013) Forecast– Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories

• Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included– Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally

competitive launch service procurement– Historical launches occasionally restated if necessary



2004 Survey

• Individual and comprehensive GSO inputs for 2004-2013– 26 survey responses received (two less than 2003)– 4 U.S. domestic companies provided comprehensive input

• Survey of Factors Affecting Market Demand– 16 companies also responded to questions on how various

factors affected their plans to procure new satellites– Response categories updated from 2003 questionnaire to

broaden understanding of respondents’ opinions



2004 Survey Respondents AirTV (U.S.)+

Alcatel Space

Arianespace (France)

AsiaSat (China/Hong Kong)+

Astrium (France)

Binariang Satellite Systems (Malaysia)+

The Boeing Company* (U.S.)

DirecTV (U.S.)+

Inmarsat (U.K.)+

Intelsat (U.S.)+

JSAT Corporation (Japan)

Kistler* (U.S.)

KT Corporation (South Korea)+

Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co.* (U.S.)

Loral Skynet (U.S.)+

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan)

Mobile Broadcasting Corporation (Japan)+

Mobile Satellite Ventures (U.S.)+

New Skies Satellites (Netherlands)+

Orbital Sciences Corp. (U.S.)

PanAmSat (U.S.)+

Satmex (Mexico)+

Space Communications Corporation (Japan)+

Space Systems/Loral* (U.S.)

Telesat Canada+

Thuraya Telecommunications (U.A.E)+

+ = Provided input on factors affecting demand* = Provided comprehensive input



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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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2004 Satellite Demand Forecast

2004 Launch Demand Forecast

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Average 2004 to

2013

Satellite Demand 20 22 16 19 19 22 22 23 24 24 211 21.1

Dual Launch Forecast 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 28 2.8

Launch Demand Forecast

19 19 13 16 16 19 19 20 21 21 183 18.3

2004 Commercial GSO Forecast



2003 Forecasted Demand vs. Realization

• Anticipated 2003 GSO demand was 22 satellites

• Expected realization was 13 to 19 satellites

• 14 launched and one accelerated from 2003, therefore

• 15 commercial GSO satellites were launched in 2003

• Of the 8 anticipated but not launched:

– 6 satellites were delayed due to satellite issues

– 1 satellite was delayed due to issues related to both the satellite and the launch vehicle

– 1 satellite was delayed due to regulatory issues (export control)



Realization bands are correctly bracketing actual launch experience

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Historical SatelliteDemand Forecast

2004 SatelliteDemand Forecast

Actual SatellitesLaunched= Expected Realization

Historical Long-Term Demand Forecast

Near-Term Manifest

2004 COMSTAC Commercial GSO Demand Forecast and Probable Realization



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Average

High 21 23 23 24 24 25 27

2004 Satellite Demand 20 22 16 19 19 22 22 23 24 24 211 21.1

Low 16 16 18 18 18 18 18

0

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301993

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Launches

ForecastNear-Term Manifest

Actual

2004 Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast



Commercial GSO Near-Term Mission Model

2004 2005 2006 Total 20 22 16

3 3 2 Below 2,200 kg (<4,850 lbm) AMC-10 – Atlas IIAS

AMC-11 – Atlas IIAS Galaxy 14 – Ariane 5

Galaxy 15 – Ariane 5 Optus D1 – TBD Telkom 2 – Ariane 5

AMOS 3 – TBD Sirius 4 - TBD

5 6 8 2,200 – 4,200 kg (4,850-9,260 lbm) Superbird 6 – Atlas IIAS

MBSat – Atlas III XTAR EUR – Ariane 5 AMC 15 – Proton Insat 4A – Ariane 5

Spainsat – Ariane 5 Arabsat 4A – Proton Hot Bird 7A – Ariane 5 Insat 4B – Ariane 5 DirecTV 8 - TBD AMC 16 -- Proton

Hot Bird 8 – Ariane 5 StarOne C1 – Ariane 5 JCSat 9 – Ariane 5 Arabsat 4B – Proton Astra 1L – Proton AirTV 1 – TBD JCSat 10 - TBD Optus D2 – TBD

6 7 6 4,200 – 5,400 kg (9,260 – 11,905lbm) Eutelsat W3A - Proton

Estrela do Sul – Sea Launch Apstar V – Sea Launch Worldsat 2 - Proton Amazonas - Proton XM-3 - Sea Launch

WorldSat 3 – Proton Anik F1R – Proton Astra 1KR – Ariane 5 Measat 3 - Proton Wildblue 1 – Ariane 5 Echostar 10 – TBD Thuraya - TBD

Galaxy 16 - TBD Galaxy 17 - TBD Telstar 11R - TBD Koreasat 5 – TBD AMC 14 – Atlas V Telesat (tbd) - TBD

6 6 0 Over 5,400 kg (>11,905 lbm) Anik F2 – Ariane 5

DirecTV 7S – Sea Launch Intelsat 10 – Proton Inmarsat 4F1 – Atlas V Spaceway 1 - Sea Launch Telstar 8 - Sea Launch

NSS 8 - Sea Launch Spaceway 2 - Sea Launch iPSTAR – Ariane 5 Satmex 6 – Ariane 5 Inmarsat 4F2 – Sea Launch DirecTV 9S - TBD

As of April 28, 2004



Forecast Trends in Mass Distribution

Forecast demand is lower in all weight classes, but the biggest drop was in the large 5,400kg+ class (from 51 to 35 over 10 years)

Below 2,200kg

2,200 to 4,200kg

4,200 to 5,400kg

Over 5,400kg

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Actual Long-Term Demand ForecastNear-Term Manifest



Growth trend in transponders-per-satellite is expected to recover in 2004

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Average Transponders per Satellite

GSO C/Ku/Ka Transponders Launched



GSO Satellite Mass Launched

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Total Mass Launched Average Mass per Satellite

Average satellite mass growth is expected to continue in 2004



Historical Demand Forecast Comparison

2004 forecast demand is 9% lower than the 2003 forecast

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2002 Demand Forecast





Demand History and Forecast Summary

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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Dual Manifest Launches

Single Manifest Launches

Satellites

Actual Long-Term Demand ForecastNear-Term Manifest



Factors Affecting Demand

• Global and regional economic conditions– Improving but with regional differences– New ventures still face extreme scrutiny– Transponder over-capacity has driven pricing down

• New market applications– Direct-to-home applications are driving demand growth– Ka-band satellites are becoming a mainstay

• High-speed terrestrial services– Significant fiber-optic cable bandwidth capacity in market– May lower demand for satellite-based data transfer

• Data compression technology• Regulatory environment• New space hardware



Summary of Findings

• 2004 COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast– Average satellite demand 2004-2013 = 21.1 per year– Near-term demand is 20 in 2004, 22 in 2005, and 16 in 2006– Expected realization:

• 12-17 satellites in 2004



• Average annual demand is down 9% • Transponders-per-satellite and mass-per-satellite

launched continue to grow• Economic conditions and availability of financing

continue to have a negative effect on market demand

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