Demographic Transition Demographic Transition ModelModel

Population ChangesPopulation Changes The total population of an area depends upon changes The total population of an area depends upon changes

in the in the natural increasenatural increase and and migration.migration. The natural increase (or decrease) is the difference The natural increase (or decrease) is the difference

between the birth rate and the death rate.between the birth rate and the death rate. The birth rate is the number of live births in a year for The birth rate is the number of live births in a year for

every 1000 people in the total population.every 1000 people in the total population. The death rate is the number of people in every 1000 The death rate is the number of people in every 1000

who die in a year.who die in a year. If the birth rate is higher then the total population will If the birth rate is higher then the total population will

increase. If the death rate is higher then the total increase. If the death rate is higher then the total population will decrease.population will decrease.

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*The DTM describes a sequence of *The DTM describes a sequence of changes in the relationships between changes in the relationships between birth and death rates.birth and death rates.

*The model was produced using *The model was produced using changes in the natural increase in changes in the natural increase in several countries in Western Europe several countries in Western Europe and North Americaand North America..

It suggests that the It suggests that the population growth rates for population growth rates for all countries can be divided all countries can be divided into 4 stages.into 4 stages.

Stage 1Stage 1

Birth RateBirth Rate - Very High - Very HighDeath RateDeath Rate - Very High - Very HighNatural IncreaseNatural Increase - -

Population SteadyPopulation Steady

Reasons for Reasons for changes in birth changes in birth rate:rate:

Children needed for farmingChildren needed for farming They die at an early age due to They die at an early age due to

illnessesillnesses No family planningNo family planning And religious and social And religious and social

encouragement.encouragement.

Reasons for Reasons for changes in death changes in death rate:rate:

DiseaseDisease Famine Famine Poor medical knowledge and so Poor medical knowledge and so

many people die.many people die.

little access to birth control many children die in infancy (high infant mortality) so parents tend to have more children to compensate in the hopes that more will live children are needed to work on the land to grow food for the family children are regarded as a sign of virility in some cultures religious beliefs (e.g. Roman Catholics and Hindus) encourage large families high death rates, especially among children because of disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science.

Stage 1 high stationary

Stage 2Stage 2

Birth RateBirth Rate - Very High - Very HighDeath RateDeath Rate - Falling Rapidly - Falling RapidlyNatural IncreaseNatural Increase - Very - Very

Rapid IncreaseRapid Increase

Reasons for Reasons for changes in birth changes in birth rate:rate:

Children needed for farmingChildren needed for farming They die at an early age due to They die at an early age due to

illnessesillnesses No family planning and religious and No family planning and religious and

social encouragement. (same as social encouragement. (same as stage 1)stage 1)

Reasons for Reasons for change in death change in death rate:rate:

Improvements in medical careImprovements in medical care Water Water Supply and sanitationSupply and sanitation Fewer children die.Fewer children die.

improvements in medical care - hospitals, medicines, etc. improvements in sanitation and water supply quality and quantity of food produced rises transport and communications improve the movements of food and medical supplies decrease in infant mortality.

Stage 2 early expanding

Stage 3Stage 3

Birth Rate:Birth Rate: Falling rapidly Falling rapidlyDeath Rate:Death Rate: Falling more Falling more

slowlyslowlyNatural Increase:Natural Increase: Rapid Rapid

increaseincrease

Reasons for Reasons for changes in birth changes in birth rate:rate:

Improved medical care and dietImproved medical care and diet Fewer children are neededFewer children are needed

Reasons for Reasons for changes in death changes in death rate:rate:

Improvements in medical care Improvements in medical care WaterWater Supply and sanitation Supply and sanitation Fewer children dieFewer children die

•increased access to contraception lower infant mortality rate means there is less need to have a bigger family •industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers are required •the desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families as wealth increases •equality for women means that they are able to follow a career path rather than feeling obligated to have a family

Stage 3 late expanding

Stage 4Stage 4

Birth Rate:Birth Rate: Falling more slowly Falling more slowly Death rate:Death rate: Slight fall Slight fall Natural Increase:Natural Increase: Very slow Very slow

increaseincrease

Reasons for Reasons for changes in birth changes in birth rate:rate:

Family planningFamily planning Good health Good health Later marriages Later marriages Improving status of womenImproving status of women

Reasons for Reasons for changes in death changes in death rate:rate:

Good health careGood health care Reliable food supplyReliable food supply People are living much longerPeople are living much longer

Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results in a steady population.

Stage 4 low stationary

Stage 5Stage 5

Birth Rate:Birth Rate: Slight fall Slight fall Death Rate:Death Rate: Stable Stable Natural Increase:Natural Increase: Gentle decrease Gentle decrease

Reasons for Reasons for changes in birth changes in birth rate:rate:

Family planningFamily planning Good healthGood health Later marriagesLater marriages Improving status of womenImproving status of women

Reasons for Reasons for changes in death changes in death rate:rate:

Good health careGood health care Reliable food supplyReliable food supply People are living much longerPeople are living much longer

A stage 5 was not originally thought of as part of the DTM, but some northern countries are now reaching the stage where total population is declining where birth rates have dropped below death rates. One such country is Germany, which has taken in foreign workers to fill jobs. The UK's population is expected to start declining by 2021.

Stage 5??? declining

ExamplesExamples

Stage 1

Ethiopia / Bangladesh

UK: pre-1780Stage 2

Sri Lanka / Brazil

UK: 1780 - 1880Stage 3

Uruguay / China

UK: 1880 - 1940

Stage 4

Canada / Japan

UK: post-1940

Problems with the Demographic Transition

Model

• based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization• many countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3• reflects logic of continuous growth, an impossibility•Does not take into account immigration

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