Mainstreet - Manitoba March 14A

8/19/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba March 14A

1/15

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,764 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR™ on March 122016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.33%, 19 timout of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.34%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.26%; ; times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 20Canadian Census.

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM CST, MARCH 14, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.

[MARCH 14, 2016]

MANITOBA


2/15

DEAD HEAT IN WINNIPEG

March 14, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a dead heat in Winnipeg betweenProgressive Conservatives and NDP. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.33%imes out of 20.

The Manitoba election has been largely unremarkable with the Manitoba PCs dominating in supporpolls dating back to late 2015. This signals the first real chink in the armour of Brian Pallister and the with support dropping drastically in seat rich Winnipeg,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstr

Research. “A virtual tie in support among voters in Winnipeg exists between the NDP at 34% and the at 32% with a strong 26% for the Manitoba Liberals. Among all voters there are now more undecided vohan before. Combined with the drop in PC support it's now looking like a real race.”

Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 43% (-7%), NDP 27% (+6%), Liberals 24% (+1%), Greens 7% (+

The Manitoba Liberals remained flat but continued to show strong signs of growth potential ameaning undecided voters despite a bad news week. Meanwhile, the NDP who were almost written off

months ago have shown signs of a resurgence in support, although it is concentrated in Winnipeg. Wundecided voters increasing at this stage, it could signal a shift in this campaign to a more competitive han what was expected just a few weeks ago,” continued Maggi.

The danger for the NDP is that 47% of Manitobans want their Premier to have honesty and integrity. O9% of voters who see this as a key attribute for Premier are currently voting for the NDP. The top issuManitoba is taxes (26%), another issue the NDP is weak on (only 4% of voters for whom taxes is the

ssue plan to vote for the NDP). This is a very challenging climate.”

Ultimately we will want to see whether this trend continues. We will be releasing polling about once week in Manitoba so we will have numerous opportunities to confirm and track further movement,”

finished.

About Mainstreet Research

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levelgovernment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of pu

opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in Br

Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the o

polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.


3/15

If the provincial by electionwere held today,which candidate

would you support?

UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12


4/15


would you support?

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

Sample

Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Sample

PC

19%

35%

16%

5%

26%

1764

23%

25%

17%

6%

29%

862

12%

52%

14%

3%

19%

902

20%

22%

15%

10%

33%

213

15%

38%

19%

3%

25%

372

21%

39%

16%

2%

22%

534

19%

46%

14%

2%

19%

645

19%

38%

18%

5%

22%

780

19%

32%

15%

5%

30%

984


5/15

And which Party are youleaning towards voting for?

[Undecided Only]

UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green

17%

10%

17%

5%

51%


6/15


would you support?

J a n 7

J a n 2 7

F e b 1 1

F e b 2 0

M a r 1 2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

23% 44% 27% 6%

20% 52% 20% 9%

21% 51% 20% 7%

21% 50% 23% 6%

27% 43% 24% 7%

J a n 7

J a n 2 7

F e b

1 1

F e b 2 0

M a r 1 2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

23% 44% 27% 6%

20% 52% 19% 9%

21% 52% 20% 7%

22% 51% 22% 6%

25% 47% 22% 6%

DECIDED & LEANING

DECIDED ONLY


7/15


would you support?[DECIDED AND LEANING]

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Sample

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female


PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Sample

PC

34%

27%

22%

17%

197

19%

47%

29%

4%

328

27%

49%

23%

2%

469

24%

54%

19%

3%

555

23%

46%

25%

6%

701

30%

40%

22%

8%

848

27%

43%

24%

7%

1549

34%

32%

26%

8%

742

15%

62%

19%

5%

807


8/15

And, which of these is the mostimportant issue in deciding your vote

in the provincial by election?

Economy

Taxes

Education

Healthcare

Ethics

Environment

Something Else

Not Sure

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

Economy

Taxes

Education

Healthcare


Ethics

Environment

Something Else

Not Sure

20%

21%

16%

12%

10%

5%

12%

5%

20%

30%

12%

17%

2%

3%

4%

12%

19%

30%

10%

15%

4%

4%

4%

14%

15%

25%

8%

23%

4%

6%

6%

13%

20%

33%

11%

10%

7%

3%

8%

8%

17%

20%

13%

22%

4%

5%

5%

13%

19%

26%

12%

16%

5%

4%

7%

11%

20%

24%

12%

16%

6%

5%

8%

11%

16%

31%

11%

18%

4%

4%

5%

11%


9/15

What is the most important leadershiptraits for a Premier to have?

A: A Premier should ‘share your values’

B: A Premier should ‘care about people like you’C: A Premier should ‘think like you on the issues’D: A Premier should ‘have honesty and integrity’

B

A

C

D

Other*

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

Not Sure


B

A

C

D

Other*

Not Sure

10%

11%

8%

47%

11%

14%

10%

11%

8%

44%

12%

16%

9%

10%

9%

51%

10%

11%

14%

6%

8%

30%

24%

19%

8%

14%

10%

46%

8%

15%

6%

13%

9%

59%

4%

9%

10%

10%

6%

56%

6%

12%

6%

10%

10%

46%

12%

16%

13%

11%

7%

47%

11%

12%


10/15

LIKELYHOOD TO VOTEvs.

PARTY SUPPORT

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Certain Likely Might Unlikely

19%

38%

17%

5%

21%

12%

31%

12%

1%

44%

23%

7%

15%

1%

54%

16%

24%

16%

1%

43%

Certain

Likely

Might

Unlikely

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10

19% 38% 17% 5% 21%

12% 31% 12% 44%

23% 7% 15% 54%

16% 24% 16% 43%

19% of Voters ‘Certain to Vote’ are voting NDP


11/15

20

34

TOP ISSUEvs.

PARTY SUPPORT

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Economy Education Healthcare Taxes

31%

24%

12%

1%

31%

30%

31%

9%

3%

29%

16%

34%

17%

9%

25%

4%

56%

17%

5%

17%

16% of Voters whose Top Issue is Healthcare are voting NDP

Economy

Education

Healthcare

Taxes

0 10 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

31% 24% 12% 31%

30% 31% 9% 29%

16% % 17% 9% 25%

56% 17% 17%


12/15

LEADERSHIP TRAITS OF A PREMIERVS

PARTY SUPPORT

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

A B C D E F

46%

35%

6%

7%

6%

37%

27%

24%

0%

13%

21%

43%

16%

5%

15%

9%

45%

18%

3%

26%

10%

24%

3%

10%

53%

26%

10%

23%

9%

32%

A

B

C

D

E

F

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

46% 35% 6% 7% 6%

37% 27% 24% 13%

21% 43% 16% 5% 15%

9% 45% 18% 26%

10% 24% 10% 53%

26% 10% 23% 9% 32%

A: A Premier should ‘share your values’B: A Premier should ‘care about people like you’

C: A Premier should ‘think like you on the issues’D: A Premier should ‘have honesty and integrity’

E: Other; F: Not Sure


13/15

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

The NDP led by Greg SelingerThe Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

The Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariTheGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?

The NDP led by Greg Selinger

The Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian PallisterThe Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariTheGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

And, which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the provincial election? Is iJobs and the Economy, Taxes and Government Finances, Education and Schools, Health Care,

Infrastructure, the Environment or Something Else?

Jobs and the EconomyTaxes and Government Finances

Education and SchoolsHealth Care

Ethics within Government

EnvironmentInfrastructureSomething Else

Not sure

What is the most important leadership traits for a Premier to have?

A Premier should ‘share your values’

A Premier should ‘care about people like you’A Premier should ‘think like you on the issues’A Premier should ‘have honesty and integrity’

Something Else

Undecided

SCRIPT


14/15

ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


15/15

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber

government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major

government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

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Mainstreet - Manitoba March 14A

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